sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I think you are probably looking at for likelihood by July 50% Pablo 20% Devers 20% Patchwork (rotating cast - basically now) 10% Someone else The bar is very low for the position given what they have been getting.
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I do too. Last year just showed that A) Moncada was a little bit further away than it looked (but not at all "behind") The "bust" end of his range of outcomes (read Castillo, Rusney) was a little lower than it looked a year ago. The White Sox are in a better position for him to be a good player. They are not playing for 2017 - they can make moves with a longer view with him.
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I think the issue of dealing him was that he WAS going to be fairly low ceiling offensively - BUT if this what he is (modest power, average to above average on-base, good defense) ... that is a quality starter right now, and even if he doesn't get one bit better that is very valuable given cost control. The deal on its face is okay - Sox dealt surplus to get something they lacked. Could they have spun a blocked guy like Margot into more? I think so - but that is fair game at least.
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Guerra's stock has fallen as far as any 22 year old would - which is "some, but not that much". Plenty of time to bounce back from a rotten season.
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the market is pretty crazy ... now we can argue market efficiency (giggle, giggle) but whatever. I think what DD has done on this front is not atypical. And you can't deny Kimbrel's 55% K rate. This version of him is worth the bother - last year's model less so. I am happy with the output. He is starting to live up to his deal.
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i used to think this when i was little kid - until i realized that unless you miss games, injuries will not heal.
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Entering the season - there was a reasonable (30% or so) probability Rodriguez would end up this team's 2nd best starter - so far so good.
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The more interesting question is - how many relievers hold their value for more than a couple of seasons at a time? For the most part - very, very, few. And the second question is - how much of an edge does that give you over "above average" work - probably not that much. Now the ability to get 6 outs from time to time - that is worth paying for. But the ability to hold a lead for 3 outs with the bases empty is largely not that big a deal.
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Should the Red Sox Acquire Adrian Beltre?
sk7326 replied to a700hitter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
These guys self scout constantrly - I think they knew they had something legit in Benintendi and Devers. I don't think they thought Devers would be in Boston this season - but he could be forcing them to re-look at it. It's early - but the signs are interesting. And we know DD will promote a guy aggressively if he believes in the kid. -
His avg/hr/rbi was good at AA ... he also struck out a third of the time against sub-major league pitching. The former would have indicated he had developed his hitting - the latter would have given pause.
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They are ... the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013 with their 3rd choice for closer, they beat a Cardinals team who won the pennant with its second choice for closer ... the Giants won 3 world series with three different closers - with their 2012 closer getting demoted in 2014. Closers in baseball are the equivalent of running backs in football ... some teams want to spend a ton of money for a hoss ... great. But a lot of teams do well doing what the Patriots do putting no money into it. After all, reliever performance is so volatile that churn is built into things - and there is a bottomless pit of candidates (basically any failed starter - since that's what relievers are).
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I think it is pretty straightforward. This is him - there will be streaks, good and bad. The defense will be marvelous - the throwing arm uncommonly excellent for the position. He is a starting caliber CF, which is intrinsically valuable. I do think he is outside of Devers the best trade chip the Sox have to pick up something more than say a back-end starter.
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5/13 Rays at Fenway
sk7326 replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Kimbrel manages to increase his strikeout rate which was over 55% entering the game - ridiculous -
Let me rephrase - Betts is their best player, and their most dangerous hitter. But Benintendi might be their best hitter in terms of craft, taking great at-bats and such. I am thinking along the lines of Allen Craig before his body fell to pieces, or like Harold Baines of my youth.
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In the regular season I am totally with limiting how often he does it - you don't want to ride him to death - but absolutely in certain spots, go right to your best guy. And Kimbrel has been really really good - he has nearly matched his 2016 fWAR already. (he's striking out over 55% of the hitters he faces - which is unsustainably insane)
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Defensively he might have a ways to go - although the talent is there ... but it is rather amazing that a kid in AA a year ago might very well be their best pure hitter.
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It behooves them to say that. I don't think they expect Devers to be the answer this season. But ... 1. Dombrowski has had no issue promoting aggressively 2. Devers has gotten off to a magnificent start in AA as one of the youngest AA'ers around 3. If Devers performance holds up through a half season and the scouts think he can handle it (and you have a look a bit beyond the stats - like how Moncada's superficial numbers tore up AA, but he was also striking out a ton against AA-competition), a promotion would be aggressive, but not crazy. Bat him 9th, let him figure it out. I think they'd love Sandoval to be a 2-3 win player again ... but I don't think anything has been decided. Sandoval - while I have defended him so far - has not done anything to end the discussion.
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Who would you trade Mookie Betts for?
sk7326 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Nobody - he's a Top 10 player. Unless this team falls apart to a degree you are actually trying to rebuild - there is nobody. -
They had the money and a need - and a really loaded team. I think there are times when a premium closer is a luxury a team can afford ... Let's put it this way with closers ... any reliever you can't bring into a truly difficult spot is not worth a ton. While there are differences in relievers - it's not a compliment for a pitcher to require having the bases empty when they enter.
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The bullpen has been fine - and is easy to upgrade ... and to be fair, DD's teams in Detroit made the World Series and multiple playoffs. Given what a crapshoot making the playoffs is - just getting there is the GM accomplishment. (now they played in an easy division most of those years - but who cares) His teams have had good lineups, good rotations. The curse - such as it is - is just not being able to win the 11 games in October/November.
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Should the Red Sox Acquire Adrian Beltre?
sk7326 replied to a700hitter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If the Rangers fall out of it - it's possible ... although Gallo can move to 1st base too. The additional year of control makes Beltre more expensive. Olney on ESPN noted that the team is scouting Devers (who has gotten off to a pretty ridiculous start at Portland as one of the youngest regulars in AA - small sample sizes of course) to see whether simply bringing him up in June, putting his at the #9 position and let him figure it out. Now Devers could be moved for a starting pitcher ... but I think the team also strategically emptied its biggest bullets on that front already. They kept Devers over Moncada for a reason. -
He went 5 for 5 batting 2nd. That seems worthwhile.
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they are getting on base - and have (largely) been extremely difficult to get out ... the runs will follow
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11-8 through quite a bit of adversity. That is toughness.
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There are very very very few black or latino Scrappy McTuffersons the way that sort of description is applied to say, Pedroia or Eckstein. In the same vein, you see very very few white guys talked about in terms of athleticism. I am surprised this is a controversial idea.