sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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You are right - Judge, their best hitter - bats 2nd ... something a numbers guy would do. Headley has not been very good. Neither has Ellsbury. The guy hitting 28 HRs makes it better - and that better is 4 games behind, so who knew.
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The Astros and Yankees lineups are also pretty top-heavy (the latter more than the former). That sort of thing is pretty common. The production from 3B has been putrid - this spell of Lin not turning into a pumpkin yet notwithstanding - but the baserunners otherwise are about what you'd expect from a good lineup. Really what the Sox have missed is a general lack of 3-run homerness, although that is getting better.
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The only real impactful 3B available is probably Beltre - and he might not be available. The trade market sucks - which has to matter here. My guess is the 3B future right now is 50% Pablo, Lin and a wish 25% a trade 25% Devers If it's Devers - my guess is you won't hear anything until July 20, when the Sox head out West
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The league OBP is .325. Every one of our starting position players, besides 3B and C are above average - even Hanley and Moreland are above that. Our catcher production is worse, but a shade below the median - it's bad, but catcher production is bad too. What has happened lately is just some of this stuff catching up - the opportunities have been there the whole time. Given the pitching has largely been excellent - and now the team is gaining steam.
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In 2013, the Sox had the top of the rotation figured out, especially once Lackey showed some chops - a low, cheap one year deal to a pitcher who has at least been pretty good before was fine ... would I have rather traded for King Felix? Sure. But that is living a world that did not exist. The ripple effect is real - but Chris Sale is not available all the time.
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The Dempster deal was okay - for a #5 starter who is pretty durable, he was okay. Masterson had almost no chance of being good - his splits were so disgusting that it prevented that from being a realistic possibility.
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it's again a trade off - getting on with dudes on base vs opportunities to get the hitter up ... you'd like to maximize both. Again the differences are small - but every edge helps.
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AAV which is really the only way they can make apples to apples comparisons across all sorts of contract structures
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Can never have too many relief arms - that's always on the menu.
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ERA is nice - and super important ... but durability in starting is also very important ... Pomeranz has been very good - even if he has not gotten into the 8th as often as you'd like. The best example of my point is Dice-K's 2008 where the numbers were good but he was pitching so few innings per start that he was forcing the bullpen to lift a lot considering.
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I said he was good.
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I think Devers is probably more likely than trading because the options for dealing just aren't very good ... Beltre is the obvious best choice, but the Rangers are 2 games out of the playoffs with a positive run differential (and a bunch of teams to hop over granted). I am not sure they hit the eject button too readily. July 21, when the post-ASB West Coast Swing starts ... might be the most sensible date
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What is funny is that Hanley's season has had its issues but the approach has largely been solid - unlike 2015. He has managed to still get on base at a pretty good clip considering the struggles.
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I think there was a study which showed that you want your best hitter batting 2nd ... as far as the optimal balance between number of at-bats, and run scoring opportunities ... but again, the differences are pretty small.
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you are absolutely right here. Now, this team has the 2nd best record in the AL and the 3rd best run differential while getting absolutely nothing from 3rd base. Now, I'm not actually sure making an overpay for Todd Frazier helps that - aside from the fact that he is a water based life form who breathes air ... which gives him a 50-50 shot at being an improvement over the current status. And that might be the case for most of the options ... given that, just tossing in Devers after the break just makes more sense, not just for future but present. A month ago, I might have had another starter on the shopping list - and it still could help - but Fister is probably as good as any guy you'd get for that job. It'd be nice if Pomeranz (who has been good) were a little more innings-efficient.
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With lineups - some of the players care and many don't - so accomodate the guys who care and fit the rest around. At the same time, 2nd best record in the AL, solid 94 win pace. Things have been steadily improving - given the ability to create baserunners, it almost had to.
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The frustrating thing is the accountability is more with regards to achieving management goals. There have been good 70 win jobs and bad 92 win ones.
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I use funny - not random. Baseball has a ton of randomness. But the reason there is so much noise is the oversized importance of the pitcher. (this is a lot like goaltending in hockey) A pitcher can destroy every player advantage another team has ... and since teams use 4-6 man rotations (depending on situation), it is very rare that the best team in the league is fielding the best 9 players in every single game.
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Managers control playing time! That matters a ton. Far and away the most important function. What is interesting is that - for the most part, if you err on the side of sitting on your hands and let the players figure it out ... you'll probably get a better result than executing lots of showy moves which end up giving outs away.
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They are well prepared and play hard for him - they have the 3rd best record in AL now ... i am not a huge Farrell fan, but he has been fine
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There are few things a manager can do that transcend having their players play better - and that usually comes with having better players. Most of the overt in-game "managing" things (aside from substitutions) don't shift the needle all that much. Winning never stops being awesome. Now, the best team won't (often) win the title because baseball is funny. Those are two separate deals.
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Yes and no - while this is somewhat true - it does count as a separate round of playoffs. So you can craft a 25 man roster to win 1-game ... you can take a true johnny wholestaff approach and carry true specialists (like designated pinch runners) ... since you can reset the roster if you win The biggest mismatch among postseason teams is still probably still no worse than a 60-40 series.
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This is probably a slightly worse version of the guy that he likely is. But he is getting deep into starts - and giving them a chance. 2015 he was genuinely terrible - that's not this year.
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Nothing says lost season like the 3rd best record in the AL
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Do they not? It seems like the effort level has been fine - they have scrapped through stuff.