sk7326

Knuckleballers often have very low BABIP - which is worth noting. Of course there is some extreme volatility. Strikeout rate is not a perfect predictor. But it is hard to carry a low one without actually being on a terrific team. Nobody said it correlated perfectly - but it correlates really well, especially for starters. Peak Maddux was a strikeout pitcher.

Clear dump for a 24 year old in Single A. A sack of potatoes has more value.

Wait, it hasn't already? I don't think the Nation can rest until Sale negotiates his first Friday Night Fenway start without incident.

The marketing folks should just invent throwback ideas to mess with him.

Pedroia Betts - want your best hitter 2nd Bogaerts Ramirez Benintendi (some DH) Sandoval (some C) Bradley

As Bill Barnwell noted, the Sox probably should just run their Saint Patrick's day jersey design past Sale - just to be safe.

JH has largely been unhinged in most of his media forays since the end of 2015. He went from a soft spoken guy who believed in quantitative modeling and whatnot and turned into a parody of Steinbrenner.

Price had a large gap between fWAR and bWAR for the reasons you cited - but that's okay. I think Price's fundamentals were more repeatable. Individual control of FIP is very very dicey - it's probably not 0, but it's not 100 and varies a lot by pitcher. The gap in fWAR I think reflected that Price is much more likely to deliver better performance going forward - which was true. Strikeout rate is still the best simple measure of pitcher quality.

Fast tracking vs not fast tracking is really about each individual player and the org plan. That is why looking at the numbers on the farm is such a dicey proposition. The job at the minor league level is not to win - a pitcher could have a 4.50 ERA because he is being told to throw his 3rd best pitch a lot. Benintendi was the Golden Spikes winner playing in the toughest college league in the country - the Sox started him in Lowell and Greenville, and he crushed them, but that was also inferior competition to what he had been facing at Arkansas. He had inferior superficial numbers to Moncada this season on the farm, but clearly was much better equipped to succeed with the big club. He showed the evaluators stuff that they needed to see from him Devers is so young - he had a good season in Salem, making a lot of contact. Has he done enough to start at AA? Possibly - but it is really about whether he fulfilled the org goals. Devers was among the youngest regulars in High A and if he is in AA he will be the youngest regular there too. I tend to believe the old adage - players make these decisions for the org largely.

1. Who cares? 2. Really it is about who does it matter to the most? I think Porcello as a hat tip to his remarkable turnaround.

ERod was one of their four best starters by the end of last season - he is a stock you buy. The numbers problem is solveable in more sensible ways.

It also would be a lesser pick anyway

WAR is a counting stat - so bulk matters. It definitely is not a be-all and end-all, but nobody said it was. It is an excellent starting point for identifying player value though. fWAR is probably a better metric to evaluate future performance, while bWAR might be better for awards and such.

Espinoza could bust - but he has an immense ceiling. And ceiling is what a team like the Red Sox have their farm system for. Anderson was a clear bust - although I am not sure the industry (or the Sox) would value that sort of player to the same degree anymore. The Red Sox philosophy the past several years - get good athletes, with an emphasis on up the middle - is a strong idea - bet on the athlete. Sometimes it really works (Betts), sometimes it works a little (Middlebrooks) and others it doesn't. I don't think Anderson really fit that dossier.

but even then, the kid was on strict pitch and hitter counts - you're not going to see a kid that young turn around 100 IP very often

I think the rotation will be better - it might not be that much better than ours was as the season ended ... but the consistency will just be a lot better. Sale, Price and Porcello are proven stocks - I expect Porcello to regress, but all of them have been extremely reliable bets to crank out 7+ solid to spectacular innings a night. Even on most of Price's crappy starts - he could persevere past the "soft underbelly of the pitching staff" stage of the game. Rodriguez' ceiling is every bit those three guys and (given his age) there is a good chance he will find more consistency where the starts look more like his appearances against Baltimore and Oakland than the garbage outings. The ceiling for the rotation might not have improved all that much - but the floor is much much higher. That probably describes the team at large.

He was a guy the Sox needed at the time. Iglesias was a luxury considering Drew was a pretty good SS. Iglesias at the time of the trade had a comically high BABIP IIRC which invited skepticism. But Iglesias has panned out to the degree he can, an otherworldy defender who can put up an empty .270 and allow his glove to play. Peavy helped during the marathon - even if he was less helpful going after the actual trophy.

I think there are some questions about his actual gamecalling and being a pitcher whisperer the way Varitek often was. (at least by the pitchers' testimony) Some of that comes with experience of course - but the staff ERA only stabilized after Leon took over full time. I am certainly not putting all of that on the catcher's shoulders - but it is a fair place to look.

I think that almost no pitcher could do that anymore - I mean you get the odd Urias maybe ... but the extreme caution with overworking guys, orgs I think will never feel guilty not pushing pitchers aggressively (at least among projected starters)

Devers is one of those whose statistical performance is a little hard to go on entirely - he was pretty good after a slow start as one of the youngest regulars in high-A, and next year he will be one of the youngest regulars in AA. I mean he will be in Portland at a younger age than Benintendi. He is being moved slow, but with darn good reason. If Dombrowski deals Buchholz or Pomeranz for example, the test is whether he can get a good prospect - or at least a toolsy one. If the org's emphasis on bringing in great athletes continues, I'll have more comfort on this level.

Devastated is a bit much. The Top 10 is thinner than it has been - but the Red Sox had an uncommonly strong one. They still have significant star ceiling in the top 5. Now the challenge is to replenish - the new international signing rules will make it difficult - although pool space can be traded. The Red Sox will have to have keen eyes for interesting signability picks. Do the Red Sox still have the scouting that they had before to make the difficult talent and character calls. (like the one which got Mookie Betts in the 5th round) You have to be happy with the moves I think - the team has a significant window to do something special ... but having a core of homegrown stars is cool, and I'd still like to have a steady source of that. Dombrowski has built good farm systems also - ultimately whether he does is Henry's call.

I would have understood - but I am very bullish on him ... we complain about not having young stud sort of starting pitching, he is tracking very nicely in that direction.

Me too (also in VA) - have not surrendered to the big coat yet, but it was hard

I think the new CBA fixes this. The Type A/B system was flawed in that how do you determine that. The QO system is more sensible than that - but still FA should be separate from the draft.

He is on a one year deal and they signed Ian Desmond who has not position to play