sk7326
-
Posts
7,647 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sk7326
-
I think Devers is probably more likely than trading because the options for dealing just aren't very good ... Beltre is the obvious best choice, but the Rangers are 2 games out of the playoffs with a positive run differential (and a bunch of teams to hop over granted). I am not sure they hit the eject button too readily. July 21, when the post-ASB West Coast Swing starts ... might be the most sensible date
-
What is funny is that Hanley's season has had its issues but the approach has largely been solid - unlike 2015. He has managed to still get on base at a pretty good clip considering the struggles.
-
I think there was a study which showed that you want your best hitter batting 2nd ... as far as the optimal balance between number of at-bats, and run scoring opportunities ... but again, the differences are pretty small.
-
you are absolutely right here. Now, this team has the 2nd best record in the AL and the 3rd best run differential while getting absolutely nothing from 3rd base. Now, I'm not actually sure making an overpay for Todd Frazier helps that - aside from the fact that he is a water based life form who breathes air ... which gives him a 50-50 shot at being an improvement over the current status. And that might be the case for most of the options ... given that, just tossing in Devers after the break just makes more sense, not just for future but present. A month ago, I might have had another starter on the shopping list - and it still could help - but Fister is probably as good as any guy you'd get for that job. It'd be nice if Pomeranz (who has been good) were a little more innings-efficient.
-
With lineups - some of the players care and many don't - so accomodate the guys who care and fit the rest around. At the same time, 2nd best record in the AL, solid 94 win pace. Things have been steadily improving - given the ability to create baserunners, it almost had to.
-
The frustrating thing is the accountability is more with regards to achieving management goals. There have been good 70 win jobs and bad 92 win ones.
-
I use funny - not random. Baseball has a ton of randomness. But the reason there is so much noise is the oversized importance of the pitcher. (this is a lot like goaltending in hockey) A pitcher can destroy every player advantage another team has ... and since teams use 4-6 man rotations (depending on situation), it is very rare that the best team in the league is fielding the best 9 players in every single game.
-
Managers control playing time! That matters a ton. Far and away the most important function. What is interesting is that - for the most part, if you err on the side of sitting on your hands and let the players figure it out ... you'll probably get a better result than executing lots of showy moves which end up giving outs away.
-
They are well prepared and play hard for him - they have the 3rd best record in AL now ... i am not a huge Farrell fan, but he has been fine
-
There are few things a manager can do that transcend having their players play better - and that usually comes with having better players. Most of the overt in-game "managing" things (aside from substitutions) don't shift the needle all that much. Winning never stops being awesome. Now, the best team won't (often) win the title because baseball is funny. Those are two separate deals.
-
Yes and no - while this is somewhat true - it does count as a separate round of playoffs. So you can craft a 25 man roster to win 1-game ... you can take a true johnny wholestaff approach and carry true specialists (like designated pinch runners) ... since you can reset the roster if you win The biggest mismatch among postseason teams is still probably still no worse than a 60-40 series.
-
This is probably a slightly worse version of the guy that he likely is. But he is getting deep into starts - and giving them a chance. 2015 he was genuinely terrible - that's not this year.
-
Nothing says lost season like the 3rd best record in the AL
-
Do they not? It seems like the effort level has been fine - they have scrapped through stuff.
-
There are no do-it-all stats, and why should there be? WAR is an attempt to measure everything a baseball player does ... now doing that is HARD, so it makes sense that fangraphs and baseball reference use different inputs - some of this stuff is hard to measure, so you do the best you can. So - to an above point, yes - it means that: 1. There is some significant margin of error. I would never use a 0.3 win difference in WAR to say Player A had a better season than Player B. But a 2 win difference is more meaningful. 2. It is a counting stat - so often it reward durability - which should be rewarded 3. I tend to be a little more suspicious of WAR built on the back of defensive parts. We know those metrics have a higher range of error than the offensive stuff. It doesn't mean it is false - but I think measuring run creation is more solid than run prevention (non-pitching) 4. I tend to use WAR - in terms of saying who is the MVP for instance - to get the list of nominees. Then you go into more detailed stuff.
-
Baserunning shows up in WAR. Now, negative plays for the most part are negative plays. Hitting the ball to the right side is something you can look for - but you'd rather get on base in all but a very select number of cases
-
it does - but does it account for it quite enough - (anecdotally) it has seemed hard for a LF to score well
-
I am speculating of course. Sorry to imply otherwise. But it is one of the realities with stocking your farm - while finding arms is super important, the volatility is higher too.
-
I do think there is evidence that odd-shaped outfields do impact UZR - Fenway LF for instance I think confounds the measurements a little bit. (there are just many fewer "out creation" chances with the monster)
-
What they knew was that Espinoza was 18 ... so there is a large range of outcomes, where arm health figures prominently. The defensible part of the trade (I was not fan because of a Top 20 sort of prospect should get more imo) is that pitchers are larger health risks in general. I am reading "The Arm" presently - there is just so much teams don't know about arm maintenance at that age.
-
Breathe. Nobody has earned anything. I think in reality this is all shuffling deck chairs while management figures out if it wants to take plunge with Devers.
-
In the playoffs - absolutely. And remember, Francona nodded that way anyway. He was liberal in his use of Foulke and Papelbon in their title chases. I am not sure if it is necessarily sustainable over a regular season. I mean, could you have a pitcher who goes 100 innings over 45-50 appearances? Sure. But the way pens are used these days - I am not sure a manager wants to not be able to go to Miller on back to back days for instance. The relief ace thing is about matching your best reliever to the situation where it will help the team most - and often that is not the 9th. Hell, Farrell has been significantly more liberal with Kimbrel's usage - so I do think the idea is taking hold, but stuff moves slowly.
-
Given that bWAR and fWAR use different defensive metrics - but have pretty close replacement player definitions and offensive measurement definitions ... a spread there is probably your best estimator.
-
It's a sunk cost. At the same time, nobody has created separation there either. So - a rotation makes sense on some level. Ultimately, players make these decisions.
-
He's been okay - and yes good for a 5th starter. And his strikeout ability portends to better results being inside there. Waiting is annoying - but the evidence was always in favor of the team turning the corner on its own.