sk7326

Now what is unfortunate is that the Sox do not have that Fuentes-Margot-Guerra layer of prospects for these sort of short run deals - they have been used. (the guys who are blocked or lower ceiling - but would definitely have futures) Now they COULD use their first round pick this year as a PTBNL ... which I'd understand - although again you'd want to make it count.

This is true - but to his credit his tastes are usually pretty high rent. And he has been aggressively promoting the prospects who he likes. I think it's MUCH more likely he just puts Devers in the lineup than move him for a non-premium trade.

What is interesting about that was my robbery contention was less about Pudge over Pedro (which I disagreed with, but fine) ... but voters making up their own rules about the parameters.

It is interesting fodder - I am not attached to it too much. And the writers have gotten progressively smarter - although that is more obviously true with the Cy Young than MVP

The Marlins would take, it drive Bour to the airport ... and try to get it done before Dombrowski's buzz wears off

True, though I think Trout has sort of earned himself an exemption in voters minds. He could have justifiably won the last 5 MVPs ... and is still in the WAR Top 10 (position) despite missing half the season.

Let's put it this way - the biggest mismatch is STILL probably only 60% chance for the favorite (because of rotating pitchers - and baseball being a fluky game generally). So even in the most dominant year, you still should only really expect the top seed to win about 20% of the time. And that has largely borne out - the best team wire to wire has seemed to win every four years or so (2013 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2005 White Sox ... obviously this is not scientific but just thinking more generally)

Of course Trout is 7th in fWAR despite only playing 47 games. He is probably disqualified due to to all that missed time - but I expect him to make it interesting along with the other usual suspects (Correa, Altuve, Betts has really come on)

Slightly off topic looking at the WAR numbers - AL MVP right now SHOULD be a 2-man race between Judge and Sale. Now, I expect it is really a one-man race because of the anti-pitcher MVP bias.

true - although if you note all of the teams in the East play in the same time zone ... which is nice symmetry

I think last year hurt Swihart - and clearly the ankle injury is a problem (and possibly behind some of his actual struggles) ... he needs to get healthy again, and it does not make sense to sell on him untul then.

So would I - which is why fewer divisions would work!

Far less likely 84-78 wins an 8 team division vs a 5 or 6 team one.

Why do you want to take credit away for winning a division. A larger division is harder to win - that is reward in its own. I think the geographic rivalries are cute - but ultimately rivalries come from games that matter. Also the schedule should be more balanced, not less between division and outside.

I am okay with Tampa staying where it is - the move was about whether there was a spot where the franchise could do better ... but I am open to the idea that a new stadium could help. But I think moving to a Northeast market would be better. But if you do realign - 30 or 32 teams, I much favor 4 divisions with wild cards. It goes a long way to preventing geographic accidents allowing an 83-79 team to make the postseason. Go with 12 teams and have the play in game. Elimination baseball is fun! Postseason baseball is manifestly a crapshoot - so might as well make the best entertainment product possible within reason. (just port the current postseason format which is perfectly fine)

I noted in my realignment that the territorial monopolies would prevent it from ever happening - it is the same thing preventing Oakland from moving to San Jose which is the most natural thing in the world. Since this was a dream world, I figured I'd dream without that ground rule. Obviously a San Antonio or Austin also is sensible.

I agree ... and really the decision point is essentially now.

I still remember seeing him on SportsCenter in 1994 talking about Michael Jordan's progress. All the best.

The questions for the trade deadline vis a vis 3B have to be ... 1. Do you think we can get enough from Pablo/Lin. I don't think this is an obvious answer - but I'd lean "no". 2. Do you think Todd Frazier can fill the gap in amply enough to trade something of value? He is an improvement, but I am not sure it's enough. Though his power is interesting. 3. Is Beltre actually gettable? The 2nd wild card is still within the Rangers reach - so I am skeptical. Devers clearly makes sense for a September call-up. But, as I've noted - the best time to promote him if you want to take the plunge is next weekend - when the team goes out West. Would you be comfortable just putting him 9th and seeing what happens? Obviously you have to count on the kid being ready. Being ready in this case means simply being able to make adjustments and to grow without the hand holding you can get in the minors. I am firmly in the Devers plunge camp here fwiw.

Middlebrooks was this interesting case - a terrific athlete, two sporter who basically took to baseball late. When he came up to replace Youkilis (Youk's sudden decline is a positional issue the team has never really recovered from - a lot of their future plan in 2011 was based on having one of the top 10 offensive players in the league ... and his body fell to pieces) he had that BABIP driven hot streak. You knew it was fool's gold the entire time. The real question - and my hope - was that his defense and enough on-base (like if he could just be below average - like .310) to get to his power would provide a solid starting package. (basically a 3B version of Josh Reddick. Alas)

If anything, baseball could survive expanding more ... if I ruled the world? (imagine that - some of this will never happen for lots of reasons, territorial monopolies mostly ... and I am assuming stadiums can happen in every place, which is obviously not true) 1. Move A's to San Jose - they've wanted to do it, and SF's territorial claim is nonsense. 2. Move the Rays to Brooklyn - NY can sustain 3 teams easily 3. Add 2 new teams. Put the Expos in Montreal again. I'd probably add a team in North Carolina. Strong minor league baseball tradition yada yada yada. Go to four eight team divisions AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, BROOKLYN, Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Guardians, CAROLINA AL West: White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Astros, Angels, SAN JOSE, Mariners, Twins NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, EXPOS, Pirates, Reds NL West: Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks Division opponents 12 times ... 84 games Other division opponents 9 times = 72 games One cross league rival = 6 games Yankees-Mets, Orioles-Nationals, Blue Jays-Expos, Cubs-White Sox, SAN JOSE-Giants, Royals-Cards, Guardians-Reds, Dodgers-Angels locked in 4 east:east cross rivals locked in, 4 west:west cross rivals locked in The other teams rotate east:east and west:west. So Red Sox would rotate between Braves, Phillies, Pirates and Marlins over 4 years. 2 division winners and 4 wild cards from each league

Oh he is by far the best choice. Having a Boston past helps too. However, this is where the 2nd wildcard is such a scourge. The Rangers are struggling - but essentially 2 good weeks away from being in the mix.

They darn well should prevent a player from writing down a contract - otherwise it becomes ripe for the sort of coersion that happens in the NFL. There will be a few who are not served by that - but not giving the owners that hammer is well worth it.

Thing with the 4/5 is that it is all so low risk - and (if you were being honest), Dempster delivered a totally fine performance as a #5. Would it have been nice to be cheaper? Sure - but as always, I have very little interest in John Henry's marginal wealth.

I don't think anybody will rush him. But if they think he can handle it - and that's really about the kid - then plug him in 9th and let him figure it out.