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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    All projections are bearish to some degree - I commented on upside not probability. Although Travis has moved quickly since he was drafted.
  2. sk7326
    To some extent ... as you know, the winner's curse infects FA. That and the age of the average UFA makes it a difficult pool to jump into for longer term help. If you look at some of the biggies Sandoval - a shaky contract when it was awarded, the player has more than lived down to the pessimism Ramirez - a pretty good contract considering. He was lousy the first year, and bounced back last year. Has been a mixed bag, but I'd happily do it again largely. (although I'd have put him in the infield from the jump) Victorino - an MVP-caliber one season, which paid for the entire contract more or less. Probably a net loss but not a large one and flags fly forever. Uehara - wish he were more durable, but 2013 was magic, and when he was relatively healthy he was always good. AJ Pierzynski - he was awful. But clearly part of the intent was to have a 1-year stopgap because of how much catching they had in the org. So no harm. There were lots of relievers otherwise, and they do what relievers do ... kind of throw your hands up there
  3. sk7326
    Travis' upside is probably more like Mark Grace or (if you squint really hard) John Olerud. Which ain't shabby at all.
  4. sk7326
    I believe in clutch moments. And certainly who wouldn't have wanted David Ortiz up in those spots? I just happen to note that I also liked my chances with David Ortiz up pretty much any hour of the day. And his actual postseason resume has both high highs and some dead spots ... a lot of the clutch moments are a function of getting a lot of swings at it.
  5. sk7326
    Is the overlap between "Really good players" and "players good by some sort of clutch criteria" small enough to pay a ton extra for it? I just don't see it.
  6. sk7326
    The Red Sox org writeup http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6345
  7. sk7326
    Adrian Beltre
  8. sk7326
    Biggest question is the bullpen, because of course it is. It's the one area of a team that I couldn't trust even if everybody was in place ...
  9. sk7326
    He was a Vanderbilt signee iirc, and historically Vandy has gotten their HS prospects to go (no wonder, tremendous education, reputation of protecting pitchers). All his advisor had to do was create the threat he'd not sign to the teams he did not want to pay for. Good for him, take whatever leverage you can.
  10. sk7326
    Lot of work to do to rebuild the org's depth and ceiling as a whole - but still a number of studs
  11. sk7326
    On stuff that was traded 7. Michael Kopech (2016 unranked) 17. Yoan Moncada (2016 #17) 21. Anderson Espinoza (2016 #38) 24. Manuel Margot (2016 #25)
  12. sk7326
    #1. Andrew Benintendi (2016 rank: 18) #11. Rafael Devers (2016: #7) #20. Jason Groome (NEW) #98 Sam Travis (2016 unranked)
  13. sk7326
    Relevant blurbs from the 2017 list (behind paywall - you're welcome - ground rule: prospect = rookie eligible in 2017) Full index http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/18559400/index-top-100-prospects-2017-including-andrew-benintendi-others-mlb Methodology Org Ranking #16. Boston Red Sox
  14. sk7326
    I agree - but I think there was some politics involved there. And the team is not exactly starving there. If there was a quality corner or someone - moving Bradley would make sense. You could end up with a better outfield in the right trade. But that trade is very unlikely - so that is fine. This is a good group.
  15. sk7326
    I think FIP is unkind to knuckleballers for the reasons we have discussed. The stat is not flawed - it's measurement is correct given the assumptions behind it. I think those assumptions breakdown for a pitcher like Wakefield. I also think Wake's value to a team (which also describes knuckleballers) sort of stands outside of those figures.
  16. sk7326
    What would it be? A good rum and ...
  17. sk7326
    Bradley is probably the best defensive CF today. Given Mookie Betts is pretty clearly one of those sorts of athletes who can pick up just about anything given enough reps, and was possibly the best RF in the league by the end of the season - I am pretty sure he'd be a better CF if he did it regularly enough.
  18. sk7326
    wrong denominator = Maddux very frequently was near or over 20% K-rate, which is plenty good. Much higher than Glavine, Suppan, etc. FIP controls for two things. Strand rate - which is a good thing (that is pretty random), and batted balls, which is much dicier (it's not random, but it does not seem that many pitchers can control it). The latter drives your problem. Individual pitchers can be really good without striking out hitters - but it's fairly rare and there has to be damn good reason. Otherwise you have to assume that it's just a guy on a really good team (which describes Ford and Palmer quite nicely).
  19. sk7326
    They traded a ton of upside - but got a lot out of it (Pomeranz deal aside). The question has always been whether this front office can keep the coffers full. I was hoping Buchholz could yield at least a low-probability high upside sort of dude.
  20. sk7326
    He was also very good in August/September. The question was whether his awful summer was health related or not. Let's put it this way - if he is still a 5 win player, he is worth trading for. It's an open question - but that he was a near 6 win player two seasons ago is still extremely positive. Bradley is an interesting case - he will be 27 fairly early into 2017 - and his 2016 was one superb month around a couple of terrible months and otherwise decent. I like him - and the Sox are pretty stacked without having to deal him, so that's nice. I am not thoroughly convinced he is even the best CF on his own team.
  21. sk7326
    He is the big fish - Mets have been rumored on those discussions. According to the stuff at the winter meetings, the Pirates seem pretty intent on dealing him. (not for zero - and not a fire sale, but they know they can get the most value for him while he is not a pure rental). Obviously the Mets would have to trade their top young upside (like Conforto, Rosario) to get him and perhaps would not want to do that. But a healthy Cutch is a Top 10 player - hard not to think that is their endgame if anything.
  22. sk7326
    Either way this is all posturing in McCutchen talks.
  23. sk7326
    I'd ask for Conforto and a minor leaguer at minimum. Whether you think 2016 is a fluke (I do - a little), a controllable quality CF is valuable, especially to the Mets who have to use Cespedes to fake it there.
  24. sk7326
    There are a lot of options for #5 starter - so this is not an issue. But his ability to possibly swing between the bullpen and rotation could have helped. I'm not sad about his departure - but it does remove a little bit of flexibility for the pitching staff.
  25. sk7326
    17 year old with a good strikeout rate is intriguing - too young to go to the AFL anyway. An 18 year old possibly in a full season league becomes a very interesting prospect.
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