sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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2nd in OBP, 9th in wRC+ ... if this is struggling (and it is to a degree) there is plenty of hope
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In a rather amazing line - 7 batters, 5 Ks, one uh oh
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And of course that happened - baseball sucks sometimes
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4th time through the lineup? I have no real issue with Kimbrel here. BTW: Very odd reversal here. Those replays showed me nothing.
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Oh robot umps ... if only ...
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OPS measures offense ... and imperfectly ... the two stats have different denominators and OBP in reality is much more important than slugging. The observers are trained "surveyors" of defense - that is measurement ... it is not clean and easy ... and it is less evolved than, say slugging percentage. The baserunning is measured too - in terms of runs added.
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He probably won't - and his ability to get to balls is of course more important. Actually defensively he is off to an okay start. He has been a distinct improvement over a potted plant at that position - which wasn't true in 2015.
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WAR is the normalized sum of every measurable thing a baseball player does. See? That wasn't hard. Now there are differences between fangraphs and b-ref based on how that stuff gets normalized - and how pitching and defense are measured. But that's okay - measurement in those areas is HARD (because you are decomposing run prevention - a team accomplishment) - and it is useful to have a range of answers based on different views of that problem.
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signability is not the issue that it was - but it is still going to be there. Kids will still use college commitments - and some will use them more credibly than others. I am curious. Dombrowski is a good baseball man - if the farm withers, it's because Henry wanted it to.
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Fenway is a mint - I have zero qualms about finding the corner OF via somewhere else. Shortstop is a huge hole if you let a 4-win player who will only have just turned 27 when his 2019 ends.
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They got Betts in the 5th round ... that stuff will have to happen more. Finding two sport athletes who can flourish with specialization, live arms with limited finesse. And of course trading to stock the farm - which can still happen given the team's surplus (of CFs say).
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The younger player SHOULD want more - and the team probably should want to sign him to a longer term deal more. And given that Bogaerts actually has a longer track record of quality than Bradley has. (granted, by 1 year but it is true). There are more great SSs than CFs, but not by much. And an important consideration is that - we (almost certainly) have two of those CFs in tow already.
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not in throwing arm for sure - although that is a luxury to have in CF. Range is far and away the most important priority and Betts can do that. The quick leap he made to an elite defensive RF (in a RF often as cavernous as most CFs) is noteworthy.
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You lose Bradley you are replacing him with Betts, and Betts via some other means. While losing Bradley would stink - it is not at all certain whether the replacement would be significantly worse.
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no - total package. That said, if Betts played CF full time, he'd be at least as good. He is a Top 10 player already overall - and in both his amateur and pro careers has shown to be the sort of athlete we all knew growing up, who could be good at anything you threw at him.
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2.5 year age gap and the possibility JBJ is the 3rd best CF in their current outfield (and I like Bradley!) make me value Bogaerts significantly more.
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I suspect there will have to be a hard choice between Bradley and Betts - which is, in other words, not a hard choice.
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The land of "adequate corner OF" is large and not particularly costly to acquire - because of Betts, Red Sox are in a position where they can substitute Bradley with somebody legitimately excellent.
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flip flop Bogaerts and Bradley ... 2.5 year age gap + quality of substitutes
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development will matter more - if you want ceiling at least. players might be a bit rawer. we'll see what happens - the team has had a lot of success drafting superior athletes and counting on them figuring stuff out.
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Yeah, especially with the variable of pitcher health, and the Red Sox' own resources - I am less concerned about mortgaging 4-5 years from now. Am I concerned that the Sox have less ceiling in their org than they used to? Sure, especially without the same sort of monetary tools available to them (because of the recent CBA changes regarding amateurs). But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff - and doing things like taking Jason Groome despite being a tough sign is a good omen there. Dombrowski being aggressive trading guys he has not identified as future cornerstones does not bother me - providing we are getting the right guys back blah blah blah. The Red Sox will always have the resources to find worker bees. (and yes I recognize the luxury tax constraints - but that's John Henry's choice) And the stars they do have are so young that they will be heading into their primes in 3-4 years! Yes, the Sox might not be able to re-sign all of them, but that is fine. (Bradley for instance is clearly 3rd in priority among the outfielders)
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Of course - just was noting that because Yaz played his entire career in the pre-Wild Card era, and that the Red Sox - and that the first few years of his career predated the Impossible Dream when the Sox had very few spots to deliver the resume of Ortiz-ian legendary highlights. (and obviously less media etc) I think Ortiz is the greatest "clutch hitter" in Red Sox history - not because he was better in those spots than, say, Williams or Yaz (though he might have been), but because he has had many more chances to deliver in those sorts of "historical" spots.
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And do you know who those players are? They are really good. That is kind of the point about clutch vs non-clutch. It is not whether the players are robots - it is not whether nerves affect players the same way. The question is whether - in general, for the population - there is a meaningful consistent difference between say, your best hitters over the season and your best hitters in these situations. And for me, the answer is basically no.
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David Ortiz, because of expanded playoffs - as well as the general quality of the Red Sox during his time here, had ... I have to think ... the most number of chances to deliver in big spots of any of the great hitters in Red Sox history. (Yaz may have had more since his career was 750 years long) There were more "pennant chases" and certainly more playoff games. There are some big spots which are obvious while its happening. There are others that seem big after something happens. (for instance, the Reggie Jackson homerun in the Bucky Dent game was every bit as big) Can a big spot occur in the 1st inning? (like Ortiz' homerun in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS) The definitions are all squishy and ultimately for our enjoyment/narrative.
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I don't agree with buying what you can make. I understand Dombrowski's temptation and views differ here.