Will617

Everyone, I think, but I don't think we'll see both Bard and Paps. One or the either, given how much they worked yesterday.

It seems like, barring any ridiculous offers, Beltre will probably get an offer of 3 years at about $12-15 million a year. Originally, I didn't think that keeping Beltre would be a smart move for the Sox, but now I'm reconsidering that. The primary concerns are that 1. Beltre performs much better in a contract year, 2. that the numbers he has this year are unsustainable, and 3. that a team will overpay for him. 1. I don't think that players perform any better in a contract year, IMO there are few people in baseball that would work a lot harder just because it was a contract year. Beltre had that monster year in 2004, but looking at his batted ball statistics, his LD, GB, and FB rates were all relatively similar to his career averages (19%, 41%, and 40% respectively; his averages are 19%, 42%, and 39%). So how did he hit 48 home runs? His HR/FB rate was 23.3%, which is just absurd. Basically, it doesn't seem like he performed any better, he just had a ridiculous amount of luck. 2. Beltre's power numbers are probably sustainable, but his average is probably not. His BABIP is .353, a lot higher than his career mark of .294; you could probably expect his BABIP to rise, given that he pulls to the Monster and will get more fly balls to go for homers in Fenway. I would imagine that his average would be at about the .290-.310 mark. His ISO is .233 this season, which is a touch above 06-08 numbers (which were about .200), but his HR/FB rate has been close to what he's done in past years (minus 2009, in which he was injured), meaning that his power has risen due to hitting stuff off the wall, and not a sudden rash of homers. 3. Will a team overpay for Beltre? I can't imagine many teams will, given the current economic situation and the reluctance to take on additional salary. Paying him $12M a year for three years doesn't seem unreasonable, although $15M is a bit high; but consider that the Mariners paid Beltre about $13M a year for 5 years. I doubt that the numbers will go much higher than $12M, and I think that Beltre would be worth that amount to the Sox given their need at the position.

Dammit Jed.

If Kalish stays good the rest of the season, I think Cameron should get moved this offseason, with probably Ellsbury going back to center.

The Red Sox don't have infinite money like the Yankees. Like I've said before, I don't think Ellsbury is a trade chip at all for a 1B, unless a competitive team that can't resign its slugging 1B (I can't think of any at the moment) has a hole at OF. Every time the Sox save money on a position with a minor leaguer/arbitration-eligible player, that's more money to spend on other players. Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez are free agents after the 2011 season. It makes a lot more sense to save money for that, rather than burning money long term on Crawford (who would likely command more money with this weak OF class).

Whew.

You read my mind CoachC.

Dammit Ramiro Pena. A-Rod would've never made that play.

I'll admit that 2-2 by Joba was very close to a strike, but honestly the Sox have been getting wrecked by this ump all game, so I couldn't care less Joba.

Think Ells is gonna be running pretty soon. EDIT: And Posada can't even get him guessing right.

Because Ellsbury is basically the same player, but has three years of arbitration left. That's about $45-60 mil wasted on buying the same player. And because it prevents Kalish from reaching the ML. The likelihood of two elite outfield prospects (Kalish who has looked very good in terms of patience, defense, and power, and Reddick one who struggled but had looked like he was definitely pressing earlier in the season, and now looks a lot better) both not panning out doesn't seem that high. If Kalish finishes the season without a substantial decline, I believe that he's proven he's a major league player, and he doesn't have big enough holes in his game that can turn him into the next Rick Ankiel (the outfield incarnation).

YES THANK YOU BERKMAN

Berkman pinch hitting. If he f***s this up, the Yankees fans are going to let him hear it loud and clear.

Come on Bard. Drop some sliders in.

f*** Teixeira. f*** him.

DANIELLLLL BAAAAAARDDDDDDD

Yeah, suck it Posada.

Remember when Beckett hit Shin Soo-Choo, and he immediately stole second? Ellsbury needs to s*** all over Kerry Wood like that.

Most players aren't HoFers waiting to happen. It all depends on what the Red Sox are trying to bring in. Crawford seems like too similar of a player to Ellsbury for me, they're both .300/.350 guys with elite speed, Crawford has slightly better power. They're probably similar defensively too, given Ellsbury's numbers in left. Adding another OF seems to put a lot of payroll commitment to a place where we don't need it. If Kalish is ML ready now (which he looks - a few more months will give a better look), that's two spots filled by Kalish and Ells post Cameron/Drew, and we'd just need either Nava or Reddick or (maybe in a couple years) Westmoreland to pan out in right. That's a lot of years of cost-controlled players. If the Sox splurge on an outfielder, that's more payroll dedicated to the spot, and less money to spend on more pressing needs (1B/3B/DH).

Lester should be good for an inning plus a bit. Also Swisher should shut up, that was easily a strike.

Why the hell are the Yankees getting all these calls? Lester's lost a ton of obvious strikes and Hughes has gotten some ridiculous ones.

Ellsbury was better his first AB, he fought back from 0-2 and made it a 3-2 count before singling.

Don't jinx it...

Ells gets the benefit of the doubt. Way too small of a sample size, and he's been contributing with good defense.

Has Lowell been using Just for Men or something?