Papelbon's BB/9 has been around 3 the past two years, after sitting at around 2 his first three years. He's been the beneficiary of a ridiculous HR/FB ratio last year (last year 52.2% of all balls in play were fly balls, but only 5% of those went for HRs), and the beneficiary of a ridiculous BABIP this year. The problem is that he wants to be paid like an elite closer, but his numbers the past two seasons suggest that he's not that far off from becoming a 4.0 ERA reliever. Of course, 100 innings isn't a perfect sample size, but it does suggest something is wrong - his fastball has only been about 0.6 runs above average per 100 pitches, compared to 1.5 last year, 2.2 the year before, and 3+ past years - suggesting that batters are sitting more on his fastball. Meanwhile, his slider and splitter have been terrific this season - maybe it's just a matter of approach, but Paps better change it fast, if he wants to be paid like an elite closer.