Will617
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Everything posted by Will617
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This will definitely happen unless A. There is something seriously wrong with him, or B. There is something seriously wrong with the Cardinals FO. That option is insanely good for Wainwright's talent level.
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Lester can hit free agency in 2014 if he finishes 1st or 2nd in Cy Young voting from 09-13, which is a real possibility given his talent. But I'm just nitpicking right now. And if Middlebrooks doesn't pan out? What if a lot of our other prospects don't pan out (especially since you're including a lot of prospects that aren't projected to amount to the quality of players they're replacing)? Keep in mind that in 2014, a lot of our players will probably be at the start of their decline, so you would need to replace the WAR lost from them with other high-WAR players in other positions, not just MLB-average level replacements. I would like to keep Ellsbury, but I think the possibility that we leave him go to gain flexibility in other roster decisions is much higher than you think it is.
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Personally, I think you're brushing off Jacko's arguments a little too lightly. The Sox have talent now that can take over CF and RF (Kalish and Reddick). Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, and Barnes can all still flame out since they're further from the majors. We don't know what our pitching prospects will look like in 4 years. Resigning Ellsbury to $20 mil/year would impact our flexibility in the market to address other needs, especially since we have better-known qualities at the OF than we do at any other position in our organization. I still want to keep Ellsbury, but I would understand if Theo didn't resign him.
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Trade deadline power rankings: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/8/2/2310916/mlb-power-rankings-august-1-trade-deadline I cracked up for a good 10 minutes or so. Loved the one about the Phillies.
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Medicine is difficult.
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He's got natural leadership skills! I thought that it's usually Yankees+Giants and Mets+Jets, based on how it goes geographically and what my friends tell me (one's a Yankees and Giants fan, one's a Mets and Jets fan). Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of New Yorker's bandwagoned on the winning team.
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Pence is overrated. His average this season is tied to his BABIP. He's not a bad player, but he doesn't represent a huge upgrade given that they're going to send Dominic Brown back to AAA and continue with Raul Ibanez and his -1.2 WAR.
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Orgazational depth is important, especially when a lot of the 3B prospects are quite a ways out of contributing that we're not sure what they'll develop into. For example, what if the Giants had traded Bumgarner (looking like a decent pitcher) for Freddy Sanchez, instead of Tim Alderson? Similarly, a couple years ago it looked like we had great depth in the OF with Ellsbury, Kalish, Reddick, and Westmoreland, but Westmoreland had brain surgery and Reddick fell off the map. What if the Sox trade Middlebrooks, Cecchini breaks an arm, Vitek doesn't pan out, and Youkilis doesn't age too well? I would not mind moving a pitcher like Weiland, but I'd be concerned about moving someone like Ranaudo, simply because his upside is so much higher and the Sox don't have a lot of need for prospects that project to be middle-of-the-rotation types.
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Just because you cheery-picked a certain fact doesn't mean it's now a rule to make the postseason. Your argument is so easily explained by other factors - Teams with s***** ERAs don't make the postseason, in the postseason good teams lose all the time, etc., that it isn't even worth mentioning as an argument for acquiring better pitching. Also, last I checked the season's still not over, and we're still missing Lester and Buchholz but could reasonably expect for them to show up by the end of it.
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Wainwright will undoubtedly get the options exercised unless Pujols is making $30 mil a year/Wainwright's arm is completely busted. $10m is a very affordable price for Felix, I highly doubt he'll be available unless he's personally unhappy (the Mariners have a pretty decent group of players going forward, anyway). Bedard would be a bridge towards a healthy Buchholz next year/5th starter/Doubront or others. Personally, I don't feel that confident in his arm, but it's probably the most cost-efficient option.
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Not even. You need 3 years of data for UZR to be reliable. Quentin's UZR for the year means about as much as Reddick's batting average for the year. (Still think Reddick will be pretty good, just not that good).
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Ubaldo's xFIP has been very similar every season, it's just his ERA that's shifted a lot. Career xFIP away: 3.65 Careef xFIP home: 3.95 Career ERA away: 3.58 Career ERA home: 3.67 Pitchers also perform better at home parks than away parks, when you adjust for the park factors. Ubaldo isn't going to get traded to the Red Sox, though. They don't have the pieces or the will to trade for him.
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This is a stupid question to ask without any context. It's like asking, "Would you rather have Jon Lester or Justin Verlander?" All you've asked is "Who's the better player, Salty or Molina?"
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If they put him on waivers, I'm sure that there's one team that will keep blocking him from going to other teams.
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I think it makes sense to do so; the purpose of regressing to the mean is to identify what kind of player we can expect Reddick to be in the future, given his more sustainable numbers now (BB% and K%). For his less sustainable numbers (HR, BABIP) it's difficult to project based upon numbers, so you'd have to rely more on scouting to determine what kind of player you can expect him to be. So for those numbers, it's useful to regress to use a league-wide average to get a sense of what he could be. It's not perfect, and it's useful to draw on other areas to determine what kind of a player you think Reddick will be, but it gives a decent ballpark estimate (much better than Bowden's OPSBIs).
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Line drive rates tend to regress, especially when they're as high as they are for Reddick. I'm not sure if Reddick will hit for a high BABIP. He profiles to be more of a fly ball hitter, given his swing and his batted ball numbers. Then again, he could be a freak like Votto and hit tons of line drives, but I think that regression is far more likely to occur.
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