Will617

Wow. Nearly .500 in 34 at-bats against Vazquez? That's destructive.

Buch isn't locating well, his stuff's been hanging around the middle of the plate (even on the outs).

Boras has done this plenty of times in the past. I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to pull it again given his history. The question is whether Ranaudo sees it Boras' way.

I see 12 pitchers in the Sox staff, with Richardson replacing Okajima. Maybe you didn't count Wake? Eric Patterson is listed as an IF and Hall as an OF, but I'm not sure why that is; it seems Patterson's played mostly OF and Hall's bounced around.

They were apparently shopping him at the deadline for a 1B. He might be a short-term solution as we wait for ALBERT PUJOLSSSSSSS

Pedroia will never be traded unless it's for Longoria or Strasburg or Heyward, and even then the FO will hesitate a long long time. That contract is just so ridiculously good for the Sox.

The Padres would never take Ellsbury unless they think they will contend in the 3 years that Ellsbury has arbitration, because after those 3 years Ellsbury will not sign with the Padres and seek a bigger contract with Mr. Boras at his side. And if they're trading AGon, they don't think that they'd be contending in the 3 years they'd have Ells. If you look at the Teixeira trade when he had 0.5 year left, they acquired Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek, ranked #1 and #6 in the Angels system by BA. Less than the take of 1.5 years (the #1, 2, 3, 14, and 15 ranked prospects in the Braves' system), but it should give you a guideline. EDIT: I made a mistake, Kotchman was a ML player by that time, the site was confusing and listed him as a #1 prospect in 2005 and I glanced over the 2005 part. But still, I think they'd rather take a cost-controlled OF (Kalish) over one who won't be pretty quickly (Ells). Casey Kelly is ranked #1, Ryan Kalish is ranked #2 in the system by SoxProspects. Lars, Doubront, and Iglesias are ranked #4-6; the Padres have excellent pitching in prospects and a decent ML staff. They also have three 3B prospects who can all hit for power amongst their top 10 (ranked by Fangraphs before this season); I'd imagine one of them would get moved to first and lined up as A-Gon's successor. It looks to me like they wouldn't want Kelly or Doubront, and Lars would be a lower priority for them to acquire. Their OF is s*** in the majors and not amazing in the minors, same deal with the shortstop position.

Beltre has been the best Sox player this season (excepting maybe Lester and Buchholz, but that'd be comparing apples and oranges). The problem is that he will be drastically overpaid based solely upon this year, and the Sox already have a Gold Glove 3B (Youkilis), meaning they can fill 1B with a crap fielder (i.e. Fielder). Ortiz has been having a terrific year. It'd make sense for the Sox to give him a low-risk extension, as they don't have a pressing need to move anyone else into the DH spot on a regular basis (since everyone else plays decent defense except maybe VMart, but most of his value is tied into the fact that he plays the most defensively demanding position).

He doesn't have power. People at 1B are usually the second-worst defenders, after the DH; to get the least defensive value, you should at least stick a big bat there that can't really defend. Nava can play at a more defensively strenuous position, and should play there.

Beltre apparently likes playing in Boston and is a good presence in the clubhouse. I don't think that'll get him to take a lower offer from Boston, though. I think both V-Mart and Ortiz stay. Ortiz will get a 2 year deal worth less than his option per year, but gives him financial security. V-Mart will get a slightly lower offer (given that the Sox view him as a catcher, then a 1B/DH of the future) and takes it. More like 15%/65%/90% IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions#Waivers If a bad team claims them, the Sox will just pull the player back or refuse to get a deal done. Also, things change between now and the deadline. I'd bet some of the losers from the deadline that needed a bat (White Sox, Giants) or relief help (can't remember anyone off my head but there must be quite a few) would be scrambling to acquire pieces now. The fact that Mike Lowell is on waivers is more worrying than Papelbon being on waivers. I don't think Papelbon will be leaving except for a huge package, but Mike Lowell is needed right now if the Sox want to compete, and letting him go would basically giving up on this season. Then again, maybe Theo's just throwing names out and seeing if he can fleece a good prospect. But somehow I don't think that's the case.

First, who DHs? It seems like there won't be any money left in the Sox bank after this, covering arbitration raises, etc. And there is no way we can acquire Gonzalez and keep both Kalish or Iglesias, and we may lose both. Gonzalez is an elite player - he's entering the prime of his career, he's an elite defender, he has amazing power, he has no injury concerns. There were question marks about Oswalt (contract/age) and Haren (ERA, scouts have questioned his "stuff", and the HRs he's been giving up). With Gonzalez, you have zero questions about what you'll get, and the kind of player would require giving up can't-miss prospects like Smoak, Montero, or Kalish/Iglesias/Kelly. Also, why would Cameron play left and Kalish play center? One is a Gold Glover (and age probably makes him very much above average), and the other projects to become a corner outfielder (though projections aren't everything, but they give you some sense of his defensive ability).

I've always liked Lee and Lowell, but Lowell can't play every day at 1st. If V-Mart were resigned, he might have to spend significant time there, and then we'd need a catcher more offensively adept than Kevin Cash. It might actually work out better for the long-term career of V-Mart. Dunn's defense has actually been average this season. I think that given how much he bounced around in previous years from the outfield to first and back, he never got a chance to work on his defense (since the two positions aren't similar aside from the fact that you don't have to be defensively adept to play either). He had a full spring training to work on his defense, and he has apparently played average defense according to the stats. He'd be a great signing, but I'm not so sure he would fit with the (my) strategy of waiting for Lars/Rizzo/Pujols.

BUT DUNN HURTS THE TEAM BY WALKING INSTEAD OF HITTING MORE HOME RUNS. HE'S CLOGGING THE BASES! I think the Sox would take a short term solution at 1B and wait for Lars/Rizzo or Pujols.

I'm just saying, AGon will be hitting a homer every 4 games if he hits 40 and plays 160. If AGon hits a single, and Youkilis hits a double, chances are AGon will still score. Also, Youkilis has 30 HR power; it's not like he doesn't have good power. You would have to severely convolute the lineup with situations that really aren't ideal to work out the platoon splits (and both AGon and Ortiz are substantially worse against LHP, unless you slot VMart 5th, move Ortiz to sixth, find a righty to bat 7th...etc). And yeah, AGon probably won't be moved in the offseason unless the Sox give the Padres a roster of our farm system and tell Jed Hoyer to pick four.

I hope the Yankees pick up Justin Masterson for his reputation as a Red Sox killer just as the Yankees did (in part, at least) with A.J. Burnett. But seriously, Masterson has really thumped the Sox this year.

I agree this won't happen, but it's kinda fun, almost like playing fantasy baseball. Youkilis' ISO has been .257, .242, .257 in 08, 09, and this year; Gonzalez has had .231, .274, .217. Gonzalez is patient enough, and Youkilis hits for enough power, that I would rather get the platoon splits right and not mess up the lineup.

Adrian Gonzalez has a career average of .283, OBP of .366, playing in Petco (where I'd assume he gets robbed of a few HRs that would add to his average). Also, Youkilis slugs .497 while AGon slugs .507 - perhaps a more significant gap if AGon moves to Fenway, but not a significant one (also, Youkilis' slugging has been higher over the past 3 years than AGons'). *By last 3 years, I meant last two and this season.

Wasn't a terrible decision by Francona. Just as Franklin Gutierrez is Death to Flying Things, Bill Hall is Death to Left Handed Things Standing on the Pitcher's Mound. This lineup will never happen, but why not bat Pedroia second, A-Gon third and Youk 4th? 1. Crawford CF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Gonzalez 1B 4. Youkilis 3B 5. Ortiz DH 6. Martinez C 7. Drew RF 8. Kalish LF 9. Scutaro SS

Youk has really good splits against righties. .926 OPS against lefties, .878 against righties. Same with Pedroia - .805 OPS to .841 (yes he's actually hit better against righties).

V-Mart can't catch every game

I'm guessing Ells in center, Kalish in left?

I thought the Padres were a small-market team given their payroll.