Chamomile
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Everything posted by Chamomile
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It looks like Lester's the first of the Big 3 to round into shape this season. Once Beckett and Lackey come around, we're going to be a real force. Matsuzaka should have an ERA around 4 and Buchholz is a bit of a wild card. If he performs poorly, he's an average 5th starter but if he continues to pitch well, we could be a 100 win team, even with our slow start. The Yankees were only 1 game over .500 at this point last year. It's almost as if we've switched roles this year and they finally got off to a good start and we are the team that's struggled out of the gate.
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Lester's dominant, the Red Sox come up with timely hitting late in the game and Papelbon has a clean inning to end the game. Couldn't have been a better game for us if fans drew it up themselves.
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I hope we get to see Ortiz in the lineup today. He was standing more upright, keeping his head a lot more still and getting good bat speed his last time out. And as Riverside just showed, he has good numbers against Santana.
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He does strike out a heck of a lot but his BABIP isn't that inflated considering he has a line drive rate over 40%. EDIT: His actual BABIP is .532 and his expected BABIP is .406. So he has gotten somewhat lucky but most of his BABIP isn't just luck, but a product of him hitting so many line drives and so few fly balls.
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Top Prospect Updates - May 3rd Ryan Westmoreland - DL Casey Kelly - 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10 SO at AA Josh Reddick - .187/.225/.413 (.638 OPS) at AAA Lars Anderson - .338/.427/.622 (1.049 OPS) between AA and AAA Ryan Kalish - .230/.381/.432 (.814 OPS) at AA Junichi Tazawa - DL Reymond Fuentes - .279/.359/.441 (.800 OPS) at A Greenville Anthony Rizzo - .253/.343/.418 (.760 OPS) at A Salem Jose Iglesias - .286/.351/.400 (.751 OPS) at AA Derrik Gibson - .286/.353/.377 (.730 OPS) at A Greenville Minor League Prospects Hitting Leaders (not already mentioned) Juan Apodaca, 23 year old C - .355/.474/.548 (1.022 OPS) at AA Will Middlebrooks, 21 year old 3B - .360/.435/.547 (.982 OPS) at A Salem Oscar Tejeda, 20 year old SS - .364/.367/.614 (.980 OPS) at A Salem Ryan Lavarnway, 22 year old C - .326/.381/.593 (.974 OPS) at A Salem Daniel Butler, 23 year old C - .290/.429/.497 (1.025 OPS) at A Greenville Ronald Bermudez, 22 year old CF - .323/.354/.597 (.951 OPS) at A Greenville
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To be honest, that's not very likely. He'd have to hit over .400 the rest of this month to to match that AVG alone and his .182/.250/.364 start to May, including his 2-for-5 today isn't very encouraging.
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The players you used for comparison are perfect examples of why Gardner's current production is unsustainable. Crawford has a 20% line drive rate and a 9.5% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .331 BABIP. Ichiro has a 20.6% line drive rate and a 12.7% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .357 BABIP. Ellsbury has an 21.2% line drive rate and a 12% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .338 BABIP. Gardner has a completely unsustainable BABIP for a hitter with a line drive rate below 15% and his infield hit percentage of 18.9% is equally unsustainable.
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Seems like a fluke considering the rest of his career. He looks fine this year :dunno:
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Also worth noting is that teams are 1-for-7 in stolen base attempts against the Red Sox in the last 9 games.
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It's probably worth noting that Gardner has a .381 BABIP and only a 14.3% line drive rate. He's gotten extremely lucky. I haven't checked the stats but that could easily be the largest discrepancy between BABIP and LD% in baseball. EDIT: Here are the MLB leaders in BABIP with a line drive rate below 15%. Brett Gardner - .381 Ryan Doumit - .375 Cameron Maybin - .359 Derek Jeter - .333 Christian Guzman - .329
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Well, at 34 he's past his prime, he's been lit up most of his career in the American League, he's always given up lots of home runs and he's pitching in the toughest division in baseball. Is he a 9+ ERA pitcher? No. But he's really struggled in most of his seasons in the American League, so it's not like this is anything new.
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What a huge win for the Red Sox. I actually got to see this one at the bar with some guys from work. So many important guys for us have struggled at the plate and it would good to see guys like Drew and Martinez show some life. And with the way Beltre's hitting, that home run will probably be the first of many. Not the best start for Buchholz, but it was a gritty performance. He really got tattooed by that ball that hit him in the leg early in the game and I'm surprised he stayed in the game and almost went 6 full innings. He didn't have his best stuff, but he got a lot of ground outs and was able to keep the Red Sox in the game. And Delcarmen continues to look awesome. It's looking more and more like the second half of last year was a fluke, due to his injury. People forget that he was dominant in 2009 before he got hurt, he was dominant in 2008 and he was dominant in 2007.
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Says the person who just changed their user pic from Javier Vazquez to Robinson Cano
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Has anyone else noticed who now leads the majors in AVG? Since the Yankees dealt Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson (.225/.311/.375, currently on the DL) Jackson has blossomed into one of baseball's most exciting young players. He's hit .377/.427/.526 on the year so far as a rookie while playing a superb center field. He's the current favorite to win RoY, and is one of the top young players to keep on eye on this year.