No, Paulino, Bastardo and Castro won't be protected. That ranking is pretty high for Bastardo (#30 on SP).
Bastardo is probably just a relief guy and he hasn't had great results so far. No reason to protect a guy like that. If he is selected, it's no big loss. Castro is still in GRE and is just too far away. A corner OF with only 7 HR's is probably not a guy that gets selected this year. Paulino had a terrible year and doesn't have a great ceiling at this point. Maybe just a utility guy? Similar to Castro, he's in GRE and is far away. At least Castro played well last season.
My thoughts on 40 man protection:
Wikelman
Perales
Drohan
Gambrell (38)
Penrod (49) and Scott (35) are maybes.
Wikelman, Perales, Drohan, Gambrell and Penrod all have starter upside. Gambrell and Drohan could be used as spot starters early in the season. Wikelman may be ready later in '24. Unsure about Perales' timeline, but he should be in AA this year and is considered to have the highest ceiling of all the Sox arms. Scott has performed well in AAA at C and can hit a little so could function as a 3rd C/UTIL guy. Penrod is a unique case as he spent some time away from the game and then back in indy ball. He's on the older side so the Sox are probably going to try to rush him through the system next season after getting a peak at him last year. If they don't protect him, it's largely due to his control issues. He pitched will in the AFL (1.29 ERA in 4 GS, named to Fall Star team). Someone may take a chance on a high powered LH arm like his (97 mph).