Rays have a very easy AUG schedule (CHW, COL, SEA, ATH, BAL 2, TOR 2, DET, SDP). I feel like they are going to get one more arm at the deadline and keep their pace going. Sox should be able to pass the Yanks, but I don't think they are catching the Rays. They just dug themselves too big of a hole. They certainly have a chance. FanGraphs has them at 5% for the division. I'd say it's closer to 15-20%.