What a motley crew the Sox have assembled. They have Eovaldi at the top of the rotation after a mid-career breakthrough in both durability and effectiveness. Sale might be incredible – he usually is – but how many innings he’ll throw is an open question. He’s starting the season on the 60-day IL with a fractured rib. And those two are the safe options!
Can Pivetta and Houck pitch to their talent level, giving the Sox two innings-eating mid-rotation arms? Can Hill spin curveballs past batters yet again? Is Wacha better than the 5-ERA, 5-FIP pitcher he’s looked like for the past three years? Is Paxton’s elbow intact? I couldn’t tell you the answers to any of those questions, and I doubt Boston’s coaching staff could either.
I can talk myself into this group cobbling together a good performance in aggregate, particularly if Whitlock chips in a few starts when he’s not excelling in relief. But that assumes health and effectiveness from five of the seven pitchers I just named, and the reason that the Sox were able to acquire many of them is that either their health or effectiveness is in doubt. It could be another long season of early pitching changes in Boston, but if they spike some injury luck, it could also be an excellent year.
I think you could talk me into taking teams 13-15 ahead of the Sox (Marlins, Angels, Rays).