example1

Nobody would be my guess.

If Tek could just produce like he did in 07 he would be a great resign, given his leadership and ability behind the plate. I'm one who thinks getting offensive production from a catcher isn't essential if he does his job defensively.

I agree mvp78. He might be a better bet for, say, 11m a year, but I don't trust that he's going to be able to contribute the 6.8 wins that he did in LA last year. I fear he may be closer to the 2.1 that he offered in 2004. He wants "I'll get you to the playoffs" money, but his contribution wouldnt be a sure thing. That said, I think he could help this team, for the right price. He seemed like a headcase when he left.

I don't expect much on the catching front. I expect that if the Sox sign Varitek they will be roundly criticized for not having improved their situation. If he signs with another team the general panic will set in and they will be roundly criticized as well. I think Varitek is their best option, personally.

I agree ORS. He was creating wins wherever he played defensively and was WAY above avg in the corners in 08.

We can think about that too. It doesn't lessen the fact that every player should have a cost to a GM, and a big part of that cost is the $$. Ellsbury was 91st in overall WARP1 last year. As I'm sure you know, WARP is meant to measure his overall performance, hitting, fielding and pitching. Where does 91st place him? Among league losers and players who have no potential and who are poorly paid? I don't think so. Players ahead of Ellsbury by .2 WARP or less (6.6-6.4) #76-91 overall: D. Navarro S. Victorino N. Mclouth L. Overbay A. Ramirez J. Votto J. Nathan I. Suzuki O.Cabrera M. Kemp A. Iwamura J. Werth M. Cain B. Phillips (6.5) Those are the players who had slightly better overall seasons than Ellsbury. J. Ellsbury (6.4) Players who tied or had slightly worse seasons than Ellsbury (the players who are tied are sorted again according to WARP2. J. Damon (6.4) J. Duchscherer J. Papelbon H. Pence (6.3) B. Giles A. Cook R. Oswalt J. Vazquez B. Lidge D. Dejesus A. Ether R. Cano A. Galarraga G. Floyd P. Fielder A. Burnett C. Zambrano B. Sheets O. Hudson C. Young A. Soriano M. Tejada J. Beckett F. Cordero J. Drew The list of players who didn't win as many games as Ellsbury also includes celebrities, such as,: Vlad Guerrero Miguel Cabrera Bobby Abreu Carlos Lee Ryan Howard Maglio Ordonez Jason Giambi In fact, based on his 2008 WARP, Ellsbury would have been the 4th most valuable Yankee, behind Rivera, A-Rod and Mussina, and 2 full wins ahead of Derek Jeter. According to Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) Ellsbury tied for 2nd in all of baseball with Michael Young at 18. In FRAR he is 2nd among outfielders, behind Torii Hunter. His FRAA2 of 23 is better than Damon's best of 21 in 2001, his age 27 season. I understand why people (myself included) really like Ellsbury. He's a very fast young outfielder who gives the Sox a base stealing threat. That's pretty un-Red Sox historically. If he improves his patience and makes better contact he will add more wins overall and could certainly be one of the leaguers more valuable players. At the same time, I don't think he's the savior, and I don't think he's untouchable (who wouldn't have dealt him for someone like Hanley Ramirez??), I think he is lible to be underestimated in terms of his value by people who only look at VORP or who don't believe defensive skill can improve a team's chances of winning.

Cabrera's best season was a 7.3 WARP in 2001 for Montreal. His second best was a 6.5 WARP in 2008. By comparison, Ellsbury had a 6.4 last year and his season was considered disappionting.

Also, FWIW, it wasn't until Damon's 5th MLB season that he posted a WARP higher than Ellsbury's 2008, and Ellsbury's 2008 fielding (35 FRAR/18 FRAA) is as good as Damon's best defensive season (2001, w/ Oakland, 35 FRAR/19FRAA). I think he's better defensively, and a better baserunner. If he continues learning the position and progresses at getting on base, he will be as valuable or more valueable than Damon, whose best season was an 8.6 WARP in 2004 with Boston. The 'big deal' about Ellsbury is that he is a 25 year old who is extremely valuable because he plays MLB caliber defense and can get on base at a 'reasonable' (not ideal) rate for a MLB minimum on a team that can win 95+ games. A players maximum (financial) value is when he is getting the lowest salary on a big market team that is winning lots of games. Once he is making a 'fair' salary his value will drop.

Who is labeling him as untradeable? For that matter, who is labeling ANYONE as untradeable, for the right deal? I also see 15 HR in his future. I don't think that's much of a stretch.

By the way, has anyone else looked at the WARP numbers from this last year (DT Card, Baseball Prospectus)? They have Ellsbury listed as 6.4 wins-above replacement. I think this metric is an important one with regard to Ellsbury, as it takes fielding into account. Anyone who watched the Sox last year knows that Ellsbury was involved in a number of big fielding plays, and he seemed to have a pretty significant impact in a lot of games, despite his relatively poor offensive performance. Even I have been guilty of throwing his name around as a potential trade piece, but now I think that was hasty. 6.4 wins is not to be disregarded, especially considering he will likely contribute more with the bat in the future. Ellsbury's VORP numbers make him look much less useful than his WARP numbers do.

I guess I was referring to his ability to get K's and his IPs more than anything. He continued some of the success he had in 2007 and did it for 220 IP. I'll take back the words "breakout".

His results weren't very good that year, huh? Player A: 16-4, 208 IP, 3.03 ERA, 151 ERA+, 1.308 WHIP Player B: 18-10, 221 IP, 4.07 ERA, 105 ERA+, 1.342 WHIP Player A was from 2007, Player B was from 2008. Player A finished 3rd in Cy Young voting and pitched in his second consecutive All-Star game. Player B just had his 'breakout' season and is the 6th highest paid pitcher in baseball. I would say player A's stuff (Penny, that is) was pretty good.

Because the team-city combination is a global brand name, like Coke or McDonalds.

Nah, they'd be better off finding a minor leaguer who can approxomate Nomar's offensive value but also stay healthy so they can project around him instead of replacing Nomar when he inevitably gets hurt.

They make money like no other team and they are currently as iconic of NY as the Empire State Building or Statue of Liberty. I think it is in the city's best interest to keep the Yankees fat and successful, as much as it is in their ownership's interest to be "hyper competitive", which is essentially competitive in terms of on-field production and projections, but also to have the names that make everyone else say "there's no way this isn't the team to talk about, follow, and love. Look at their players!" The Sox do best if they are able to say "we're so competitive" but their players are underpaid. Even resigning players is a different beast for the Sox, because as soon as they are paying Youkilis roughly wha the is worth, they have lost an area of potential profit--if that makes sense. The Yankees aren't fiscally responsible in the traditional sense, but the projected income they bring to the city and in paying taxes, I think they ultimately end up making lots of money above whatever they borrow.

Thanks for your contribution Kilo. I'm the one who is arguing against an automatic 3rd place finish before a single pitch has been thrown, but I guess I'm also the one on a ledge. Whatever.

Drew is due for a big season in my opinion. Also in my opinion, I think it would be a good idea for the Sox to work Drew out a bit at 1B in spring training. He's RH, but if he could spend even a little time there it would, even only beginning in 2010, it would greatly improve the players they could acquire to improve the team, corner OFs in particular, they could be flexible with another CF, move Ellsbury to LF and put Bay in RF, etc., a lot of options. That said, I would probably do the same thing with Bay--could he play any 1B?

Sorry bro. You were talking out of respect and I have actually appreciated your posts throughout. I'm just not sure about determining which 25 and younger pitchers will be overworked by 200+ IPs. Looking at Lesters stuff and his bodytype I seem to think he will be just fine, especially given how careful I think the Sox are with their pitching staff (something Yankee fans should be thankful for, as I think the way they handled Papelbon helped guide the way they treated Joba).

Oh, I see. So once they're over 25 they are immune to being overworked. Got it. I hope the Yankees see things the same way you do. AJ Burnett will be painting his toenails and relaxing by the pool injured by late July.