example1

January 9th, the depths of the hot stove season. Still a few months till pitchers and catchers report and I feel really far removed from the game itself. I thought I would take a moment to remember one of the great baseball games of the 2008 season. http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200810173627408&c_id=bos After being baffled for 6 innings by Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon was called into the game in the 7th with two on. He quickly gave up a two run double to Upton and the inning ends with the Sox down 7-0. With two outs in the 7th Pedroia battles out an RBI to score Lowrie and put the Sox on the board. Ortiz follows with a three run shot, 7-4. Papelbon holds the Rays down in the top of the inning, and the Sox tie it in the 8th with a huge JD Drew 2-run shot, and Crisp's amazing 10 pitch-single scores Kotsay to tie it. In the 9th Masterson gets a 4-6-3 DP from Pena with two on to end the inning. In the 9th Bartlett makes a great play to get Pedroia, Ortiz whiffs, and then Longoria hands Youkilis a two base error. Bay gets the IBB, and Drew gets the double over Gabe Gross's head and Youkilis scores from 2nd, Sox win 8-7 to force game 6. That game had so many small components and great matchups--actually the whole series did. It just reminds me that no matter how much you look at the team on paper, it ultimately comes down to the game on the field. Yes, the Sox lost that series but they made a damn good series out of it against a very good team. Can't wait for this season. EDIT: wrong word.

Kotsay coming back. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1144153&srvc=sports&position=4

Burnett is remarkably unaccomplished for the deal he got. WARP totals of the top 14 salaried (AAV) pitchers in 2008, and their WARP average the 4 prior years to their big payday [table] Player-AAV salary| 4-years prior (WARP) | 3-years prior (WARP) | 2-years prior (WARP) | contract year (WARP) | 4 yr. AVG Sabathia-$23m | '05 (5.3) | '06 (7.2) | '07 (9.3) | '08 (10.7) | AVG: 8.125 Santana-$22.92m | '03 (6.9) | '04 (12.3) | '05 (9.5) | '06 (10.8) | AVG: 9.875 Zambrano-$18.3m| '04 (8.9) | '05 (8) | '06 (8) | '07 (7.1) | AVG: 8 Zito-$18m | '03 (7.0) | '04 (4.6) | '05 (5.9) | '06 (6.6) | AVG: 6.025 Peavy*-$17.3m| '05 (8) | '06 (5.1) | '07 (10.1) | '08 (7.8) | AVG: 7.75 Burnett-$16.5m | '05 (5.9) | '06 (4) | '07 (5.1) | '08 (5.9) | AVG: 5.2 Pettitte-$15.6m | '04 (3) | '05 (9.2) | '06 (5.1) | '07 (5.8)| AVG: 5.775 Schmidt-$15.6m | '03 (8) | '04 (8.5) | '05 (3) | '06 (5.9) | AVG: 6.35 Hampton-$15.125m | '97 (4.4) | '98 (5.3) | '99 (11.1) | '00 (7.9) | AVG: 7.6 Oswalt0$14.6m| '03 (4.5) | '04 (8.3) | '05 (9.1) | '06 (8.6) | AVG: 7.625 Buehrle $14m| '04 (7.4) | '05 (6.8) | '06 (3.7) | '07 (7.4) | AVG: 6.325 Smoltz $14m | '04 (5.5) | '05 (7.2) | '06 (8.2) | '07 (6.8) | AVG: 6.925 Halladay $13.3m| '04 (4.2) | '05 (6.8) | '06 (7.9) | '07 (6.3) | AVG: 6.3 Pedro $13.25m| '01 (5.7) | '02 (10) | '03 (10.5) | '04 (8.2) | AVG: 8.6 [/table] *Peavy's contract is his 08-2012 AAV, not 2010-2012 as listed on Cot's A fairly basic look at the cost attaining this marginal win average (per-win): [Table] Player | AVG WARP 4 yrs | best year | Cost per-marginal win ($$$/PREV. AVG WARP) Burnett: | 5.2 | (5.9) | ($3,173,077) Zito: | 6.025 | (7.0) | ($2,987,551) Sabathia: | 8.125 | (10.7) | ($2,830,769) Pettitte:| 5.775 | (9.2) | ($2,770,562) Schmidt: | 6.35 | (8.5) | ($2,467,191) Santana:| 9.875 | (12.3) | ($2,320,675) Zambrano| 8 | (8.9) | ($2,287,500) Peavy*:| 7.75 | (10.1) | ($2,236,559) Buehrle: | 6.325 | (7.4) | ($2,213,438) Halladay: | 6.3 | (7.9) | ($2,116,402) Smoltz: | 6.925 | (8.2) | ($2,021,660) Hampton: | 7.6 | (11.1) | ($1,990,131) Oswalt: | 7.625 | (9.1) | ($1,914,754) Pedro:| 8.6 | (10.5) | ($1,540,697) [/Table] Same group ranked by previous success: [table] player | AVG WARP (4 yrs) | High (4yrs) | Cost per-marginal win Santana:| 9.875 | (12.3) | $2,320,675 Pedro:| 8.6 | (10.5) | $1,540,697 Sabathia: | 8.125 | (10.7) | $2,830,769 Zambrano: | 8 | (8.9) | $2,287,500 Peavy:| 7.75 | (10.1) | $2,236,559 Oswalt: | 7.625 | (9.1) | $1,914,754 Hampton: | 7.6 | (11.1) | $1,990,131 Smoltz: | 6.925 | (8.2) | $2,021,660 Schmidt: | 6.35 | (8.5) | $2,467,191 Buehrle: | 6.325 | (7.4) | $2,213,438 Halladay: | 6.3 | (7.9) | $2,116,402 Zito: | 6.025 | (7.0) | $2,987,551 Pettitte:| 5.775 | (9.2) | $2,770,562 Burnett: | 5.2 | (5.9) | $3,173,077[/table] What does this mean? Well, there's obviously some anomolies there. Guys like Pedro are being paid partly on fan-appeal and partly on remaining talent. Some guys are absolute busts (Zito, Schmidt) and their cost per marginal win after their contracts is horrible. I think it is clear that if Burnett doesn't get his stuff together and become a pitcher that he hasn't been before, he will be the most expensive pitcher per-marginal win in baseball. I think it also means that of current the pitchers who have signed the largest contracts by AAV (not looking at contract length), none has made more money with lower previous success than Burnett. Not only does he have the lowest average WARP the previous 4 years, but he also has the lowest BEST SEASON of any of these players the previous four years. It's not a selective list, and I had no idea how it would turn out when I started working on it. The only pitcher that I can think of (and find) whose $/W potential was worse seems to be record-breaking Roger Clemens in 2007, and his prorated$28,000,000 contract. Clemens had had better recent success than Burnett has, and he was in his 40s. [table] 2006 (HOU) Clemens: | 7.97 | 10.3| $2,760,391 | 2007 (NY) Clemens: | 8 | (10.3) | $3,500,000 [/table]

This may take a bit to format correctly, please hang with me We will have to find out, won't we? You're right though, he is a tough s.o.b.. I'm glad the Sox got him. Good thing the Sox didn't spend much on him. And the only one who isn't on the Sox and who nobody was comparing to Smoltz and Penny anyway. Again, you like to make these arguments with yourself, as if people are comparing Burnett and Smoltz and Penny. Nobody is. Continue anyway... Yeah, I think the Yankees will be pretty happy if he puts up an seasons of 135 and 169 IP at 16.5m per season. Pretty low standards if you ask me. While we're comparing the innings pitched by Beckett and Burnett, let's compare Marginal Wins (wins above replacement) during that time, shall we? Burnett (WARP) 08: 5.9 07: 5.1 06: 4 05: 5.9 Beckett (WARP) 08: 5.8 07: 8.2 06: 5.6 05: 6.7 Over the very same years that you were comparing IP Burnett has averaged 5.225 Marginal Wins. Beckett has averaged 6.575 Marginal Wins. I'm sure Burnett has cost his team less though, right? Cost per Marginal Win since 2005: Burnett: 08: $2.03m 07: $2.35m 06: $1.75m 05: $.619m Beckett: 08: $1.64m 07: $.975m 06: $.77m 05: $.358m So, Beckett has been the better value to his team, as he wins more in roughly the same number of innings, and he cost less. Now, let's suppose that both of these pitchers produce the average of their two best seasons from the last 4, over the next two (since Beckett is signed for 2 more). It would be unfair to assume Beckett will repeat his 2007, and I don't want to penalize Burnett for not pitching much in those years, so... Projected WARP (avg of two best seasons from last 4): Burnett: 5.9 (5.9 in 2008, 5.9 in 2005) Beckett: 7.45 (8.2 in 2007 and 6.7 in 2005) Projected Cost per-Marginal Win, 2009, 2010: Burnett: $2.8m ($16.5m/5.9 WARP) Beckett: $1.51m ($11.25m/7.45 WARP) I'm still waiting for an explanation of how Burnett's 1.34 WHIP last year is 'dominance'. For pitchers with more than 135 IP he ranked 58th. He had more baserunners than Dice-K, and Dice-K was like a poorly adjusted pitching machine at times last year as he couldn't put hitters away and couldn't find the strike zone. Among the same group of pitchers, Burnett's his .322 OBP against ranked him 52nd, immediately behind Dice-K. Dice-K ranked 3rd in SLG against, while Burnett ranked 31st. Compared to 2008 Beckett ... [table]Name | WHIP (rank) | WHIP (career) | OBP (rank) | SLG (rank) Burnett | 1.34 (58) | 1.222 | .322 (52) | .388 (32) Beckett | 1.19 (21) | 1.284 | .300 (21) | .400 (39) [/table] ... they are similar (Beckett allows fewer baserunner and plays in a worse home park). Maybe I'm missing something, but Beckett and Burnett don't seem like good comparisons, certainly not for the money they make. He got some nice K #s, but he didn't keep runners off base better than everyone else, and when they hit the ball other pitchers kept it from getting hit harder.

The funny thing is that the Sox best draft by all accounts was 2005, when they got Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden and Lowrie. The players you listed were one from each year, and their contributions weren't minimal. All three are probable stars in this league. The 05 draft hasn't started paying dividends yet, aside from Ellsbury's contribution of 'only' 6+ wins last year. In time it will. 3 out of 350, 4 out of 350 with Ellsbury. There's reason to believe that we will soon be able to count Masterson, Lowrie, Buchholz, Bowden and Anderson. Each of those players certainly will get a shot to contribute wins to the MLB club. Compare their success in a relatively short period of focusing more on the draft to other teams in baseball. They have gotten a lot out of their farm system, and the percentages you list really don't matter. That's how the system works. No team gets even 10% of its drafted players into the bigs.

I think Baldelli is a great signing for the Sox. If he is healthy I think he will be could be the best 4th outfielder this team has had, all around, since the Theo-Henry reign began. This is a guy who put up a 7.3 WARP as a 21 year old and had a bizarre but treatable medical condition and a few injuries that slowed him down. I know many of us have "damn Baldelli"'d him before, watching TB against the Sox (probably Yankee fans too). Numerically, his best season (7.3) was better than Gabe Kapler's best at (4.0), and WMP's (3.5). Coco Crisp's best season was a 7.7 in 2005--and that was a good season. Baldelli is great insurance for Ellsbury, and is a more serviceable RF replacement for Drew if he gets injured or needs a day off.

Then subtract the first round pick the Sox would give to LAD for buying Lowe, the 6 years of MLB control at minimal cost they would get from that pick, and add Lowe's 5.42 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last year in BOS and then do the 35 starts look as valuable? Maybe so, maybe not.

I love this move. Smoltz's first time outside of ATL in his career. He will have something to prove. He's a competetor who, aside from his injury, was pitching like he was still a very valuable player. In 2007 he was the 34th most valuable (WARP) player in the NL, ahead of players like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Derek Lowe, winning 6.8 games above replacement. If he even contributes 4 or 5, or even if the combination of he and Penny win a combination of, say, 7, they will have outweighed their contracts IMO. I've always liked Smoltz too, he's pretty no-nonsense. I know it isn't as reliable or impressive as signing 2008 Sabathia or Burnett, but both Penny and Smoltz were all-stars in 2007 and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. My understanding is that the Sox have seen him work out and he did okay. He also has a 2.65 post season ERA in 207 IPs.

I like it. Doesn't it seem like Baldelli has been a Red Sox in waiting for about 4 years now?

1) they got to game 7 of the ALCS virtually without Ortiz and Lowell in 2008. 2) the 95 games theshold is one set by the team, because teams that win that much tend to get into the playoffs (something like 90% chance). 3) I'm not going to be "fine" if they don't win the WS, but I can say I wasn't despondant last year when they didn't win it, and I'm not going to spiral into months of depression if a hotter team beats them in a 7 game series, or if a hot pitcher throws a shutout in the crucial game. That's the way things go. Last year the Angels were the best team in the AL for the first 2/3 of the season. At that point they added Mark Teixeira. They were wiped away in the ALDS, even though they took a great team and added a great player. In 2004 the Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and added Curt Schilling and the "fireman of the year" award winner from 2003 in Keith Foulke. They would have lost that year except for a stolen base. That's why everyone with any knowledge of baseball calls the postseason a 'crapshoot'. Look at the 'best teams' in history, those with the best winning % in history. Only a small portion of them won the WS. Building a team is about getting it to the point where you have the opportunity to play games that mean something. That is late season and playoff games.

I love it when conversation revolves around Jeff Bailey vs. Van Every vs. Chris Carter. That's some backup talk!!!

Given that this is the Plan B thread, let's talk plan B. I don't think there is much of one. That was fun, huh? The Sox have two of the top 3 MVP finishers from last year. They have a very good top 3 pitching staff and some servicable #4 and #5 options. Their bullpen is solid, their defense is quite good, and they have a lineup that can compete with any lineup in baseball. Catcher: I don't think they are going to get either Teagarden or Salty, and I don't see them giving up much for Montero either. My guess is that they will not move Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson or Anderson as part of attaining a catcher. Their long term catching option may be a year or two down the road. Presently, the Sox should put out a $5m x 2 year deal for Tek, and tell him (and Boras) they have until the end of the week to take it. Otherwise they will reduce their offer to $5m over two years and that's it. Then they should sign someone else, and platoon between Bard and whoever else they get. Have Red Sox nation get over it eventually. Maybe Kottaras, maybe Zaun, whoever. f*** it. Take it or leave it Tek, or enjoy playing in another city; allow your douchebag agent to field all the offers that you have coming in and go play for the Dodgers or Mets or even the Yankees.. whatever. Pitching: This team is really relying on Clay Buchholz to have an effective season next year; his stuff is still tremendous and he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. If he can pitch to 50% effectiveness that should add some wins to the club. I think Wakefield may be looking at retirement. Their signings and seeming lack of concern about having a Wake-ified catcher seems to indicate that he won't be a key part of the rotation. I could be totally wrong, or I could just be doing some wishful thinking. Outfield: Extend Bay if he is open to it. Otherwise, watch the fun next off season as the Yankees spend 300% above value for all the players that they want while every other team goes through the worst economy since the great depression. As a financially sound team with a good gameplan, the Sox should be there to pick up the pieces and will probably be competitive. Long term, try to get another in-his-prime pitcher under the radar, from a team that needs to do more rebuilding than they do competing. There aren't many options out there who might be good fits and big impacts. Check with SEA about what it would take to get Felix, talk to the Giants about Lincecum and Cain, talk to KC about Greinke. Beyond that I can't imagine pitchers who are either too volatile, too old, not good enough, or not on teams who are competing with the Red Sox. Again, wishful thinking, but it's thinking outside of the box a bit. Farm: Continue to bid on the best international free agents, sign all players they draft and don't be afraid to go over slot. It seems like their best way to maxamize their financial edge over other clubs without doing it in the FA pool. Overall, I think this is a very good team with some pieces that hold a lot of promise and who should come to fruition this season and in subsequent seasons (Buchholz, Ellsbury, maybe even Bowden). Their achelies heel will be injuries, but my sense is that they have a team with enough character and skill to battle through injuries and they should have a chip on their shoulder.

Any chance the Sox could use Smoltz as a long reliever? He's been a good reliever in the past and they could use a true long relief arm.... just a thought.

Do the Yankees still have room in their HGH Whirlpool, or did Giambi and Pettitte drain it dry?

It's funny Jacko. You almost had me thinking that the Yankees had actually won something there for a minute. I find myself getting frustrated that you do all this taunting of the Red Sox, on a Red Sox board, while your team has FAILED CONSISTENTLY to do anything with its massive wealth advantage in the current millenium. With the way you are trying to rub things in Sox faces you would think WE were the ones who hadn't recently celebrated a WS victory. Weird how that happens.

A lot of effort to refute Dojji, who I believe also said that if Teixeira signed he wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Come to think of it, this is an anti-Dojji argument too. We all argued with him about this before the trade. Maybe you could just find quotes of us saying that.... although that would have prevented you from starting this stupid poll, so nevermind. You sure know a lot about their intentions. My guess is that they intend on putting forward a good team, as they have done the past few years. Usually when demand for a product increases, the price of that produce increases. Instead, demand continues to rise (how many sellouts in a row now?) while they didn't raise ticket prices. Those crooks! I would argue that those who are making strawman arguments about arguments that didn't exist in the first place are in denial... about something. It isn't our money. Henry ponied up hundreds of millions of dollars for this team and he, along with the ownership group, are treating it like a business. It is certainly in their best interest to win and spending the most money doesn't buy you trophies. Or does it jacksonianmarch? Perhaps the Yankees have won a trophy or two while I haven't been watching this decade. And your absolute giddiness that the Steinbrenner family treats you and Yankee fans like a bunch of spoiled children at Christmas. Teixeira was a nice pick up for you guys. He will make it all the better if you don't win at least 4 WS during his and A-Rods time in NYY.

We're all anxious to see what 'different direction' you were thinking they should have gone between December 12th and December 19th (or whenever it was). Please don't tell me AJ Burnett, because they wouldn't have paid him what the Yankees did anyway. Or you failed by expecting it would happen, even if they ended up in a bidding war, and even after Henry said they were out of it. Maybe next time they should just not express their interest in a player so that when they don't get him they won't be called failures. I suppose they failed in their attempt to land Hanley Ramirez too. Shucks. So you don't believe the negotiation process actually exists? You think that when teams go out to 'negotiate' they are basically talking about things that every other player in negotiations already knows. The Nationals, Orioles, and Angels all KNEW what his parameters were before hand, and, knowing full-well that they were not going to meet his standards, they decided to bid anyway? ********. The whole point of 'talking' to players and agents is to discuss parameters of deals in terms of money and length. It sounds like Boras held out the mythical 200/10 team, the Sox said "we're not interested if that is the case" and Boras went with a lesser offer that didn't exist at the time the Sox were talking with him. Boras didn't come back to the Sox with the Yankees offer, Teixeira took it. It also sounds like there wasn't a clear indication that Teixeira wanted to play for the Yankees until after he accepted their deal. It is comical, you simultaneously blame the Sox FO for not knowing something that was private between Boras and Teix and his wife apparently (his desire to be a Yankee), while also talking about how impressed you are with Teixeira and his negotiating style and his 'businesslike' approach. "He's great at holding his cards to his chest. The Red Sox should have known what cards he was holding. Anyone who doesn't know his deepest desires is a failure." :harhar: A few of us have read that into your comments, so you may want to clarify. I'm drawing the logical conclusion from your insanely myopic argument. You say "they had interest in a player, they didn't get him, therefore, they failed to negotiate correctly OR they misread the market". I say "they had time to do a thorough investigation of the player because they have a good, young, largely complete team. They did that and determined that his asking price, or the willingness of other teams to spend on him, was too high for their liking. He was an investment opportunity that they looked into and ultimately decided against. They walked away a week before he ended up signing with another team." There, simple as that. They didn't 'waste valuable time' they looked, and they left. How much time do you feel like they spent on him? Days on end, looking over every statistic in his book, imagining how he would look in a Sox uniform, picking his locker, and his number, finding him an apartment and a new dog. Buying him a car and making sure that they developed new "Teixeira Pops" to be sold in the stands of Fenway? ******** a700. The ownership group flew to Texas to talk to Boras and told us when it didn't work out. Do you not think they are capable of doing more than one thing at a time? You're missing the word 'ultimately'. It should say: Several posters are willing to give the FO a pass on this transaction, because they feel that Teixeira was ultimatelytoo expensive. He isn't an item at Wal-Mart, he's a major league baseball player whose value is determined through a complicated series of negotiations and by the willingness of other teams to bid on him. You expect this management group to be able to go to an auction and name the price of every object before the bidding begins. By the way, who ended up buying your spring training tickets from you? I'm sure as part of your 'holding them accountable' you are boycotting their spring training, right? How, exactly, are you holding them accountable?

Spot on Rician. That is my feeling about how it played out as well.