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Interesting. What do you think it would take? I don't know much about him and haven't watched much, but his numbers and age are attractive. Even if his ERA isn't totally supported by his FIP, WHIP or Ks. Dombrowski did a great job when he got Anibel Sanchez, who was a really good pitcher for a few years. This could be a similar pick up. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled the trigger, overpaid in prospects and added Miller. Like Owens, Barnes and Devers or something? That would be a lot to give up, but Miller is in that pre-prime age range that I hope the Sox are aiming for. While I wouldn't usually include guys like Owens and Devers, if they disappeared and the Sox had a potentially dominant mid-20s arm to go with Price (now) and kept the rest of their best young players to move forward, I wouldn't be upset.

Well, I was wrong. I thought there was no way they blew him out of the water to get him but they did. I can't be disappointed as they got their ace. That said, I don't love the deal. I will be happy to watch him over the next few years and if the Sox FO continues to just open the purse for whatever players are needed then it wont' be a problem. But if they go back to their "find value" approach in the next few years I can imagine them NOT making deals that many of us want them to make because of deals like this one. Oh well, hopefully it will pay off in the short term. Additionally, I've just never felt like Price is an intimidating #1 compared to some of the other ones out there. I'm not batting against him so that is easy for me to say(!), but when the Sox have faced him I've never felt like he was a lock to shut them down. Similarily when he's started playoff games I've never felt like the other team will have their work cut out for them if they want to get a win. I bet this is as much a perception issue as it is a reality issue, I will own that, but it's just how I've felt. A guy like Scherzer has periods of absolute dominance. Price may be steadier. His numbers are outstanding, as is his consistency, and his pedigree (#1 draft pick, 200+ IP every year, etc.,). What would really make my day is if the Sox turn around and trade some of their talent for another really quality SP. THAT would make the offseason for me. I'm surprised they finished this deal so quickly and, frankly, very, very impressed.

They are undefined arms. I think any of them could end up being good MLB pitchers. Johnson and Owens are both unproven but could be mid-rotation guys in their prime. Miley has consistently thrown about 200 IP and fangraphs had him with about the same WAR last year as Richards, Gallardo, and Kazmir. Kelly has shown flashes and probably belongs in the pen. All in all this isn't a completely worthless group and it's possible there's something pretty good in their--if they can figure out which one it is.

So Price or Greinke, a SP and a couple bench pieces... The other SP: where do you think he should slot in the rotation? Should they be content with a mid-rotation guy or do they need another top of the rotation piece? I could see an argument for either one. If you add another mid-rotation guy then you're looking at having to be better than Miley, Kelly, or Owens. Are there many guys who would absolutely be better than one of them (and thus worthy of a pricy FA contract)? Chen, as mentioned above, could be that kind of guy, but there are others... Kazmir? Yovani Gallardo? Cliff Lee have anything left? There's pretty good upside in there. At the same time, they have a lot of guys who are at least sniffing that tier of pitcher, don't they? A good year from Miley, Kelly, Owens, or Johnson could be about as good as an average Kazmir, Gallardo, Chen year. Should they spend, say, 2-3y x 15m on a mid-tier SP given the relative difference between that player and Miley, Kelly or Owens? Tough call. As far as SP goes, I guess I'm inclined to think they would be okay without another SP (assuming they have their ace). There's a log jam of arms that I'd like to see sorted out, between those four pitchers listed above. I feel like there's at least one good pitcher in that group and knowing who it is by the end of next season could make future decisions much easier. Another year for Johnson and Owens of mostly being at AAA won't help get there. Kelly should be in the pen. Even if he could be a good SP, I think he could be a tremendous reliever. His arm is electric. As for the backups, I agree. A good backup OF and a utility guy to compliment Brock Holt would be ideal. The media is acting as if the Red Sox have an uncharacteristically large budget for this year, but I don't understand why that's the case. They have a lot of money on the books and will undoubtedly spend a lot on that #1 pitcher. Any insight into this?

Great post UN. I wonder if Greinke is a sleeper here a little bit. I definitely like him to be a steady producer over the next few years. If he's somewhat cheaper than Price and could be had for fewer years I'd be more than happy with him. He's been quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

What do you think it would cost to get him? Is there any price/years that would make you think they went overboard? I'm asking that seriously, not provocatively. Starting pitchers The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value: 1. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20) 2. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21) 3. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20) 4. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19) 5. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19) 6. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18) 7. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16) 8. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18) … Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15) 9. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15) 11. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13) 12. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20) From here it looks like he probably warrants getting the 2nd highest AAV. If the Sox are definitely going to get him then they might have to beat what Kershaw is getting. It's hard to argue he's not better than Scherzer, or at least as good, and once you're at Scherzer's AAV you're less than a million away from Kershaw. He's not better than Kershaw but making him the highest paid pitcher (and second highest player) in baseball is exactly the kind of thing to get him to pick you over other high paying teams. So, if it is 6 years/$185m is that too much? Sure seems like a lot.

Nothing to be nervous about. Don't have your heart set on him and you won't be disappointed.

It's a shame Buchholz hasn't quite lived up to his potential. From a stuff standpoint he's capable of matching anyone in the game. He has always just been frail. When he's pitching and seems comfortable he is like a #1. He could be that again this year. But as others have noted it's just a matter of time until he's injured again. You can't really build a championship around that. For my rotation I like: New Starter Buchholz Porcello Miley Rodriguez (Owens) But if someone gets injured, or traded, then Owens would make me perfectly comfortable in there. Kelly in the pen.

Why? Chicago is a great young team on the verge of making history. He'd be a hero if he helped them win the WS. Meanwhile Boston (the team and the city) haven't been especially nice for Price. Chicago is a great city. Boston is a great city. Both great ballparks. I'm not so sure that he'd want to go to Boston at all.

I really hope Dombrowski doesn't get burned this off-season. The scrutiny on his moves is enormous. Maybe it was the case in Detroit too, but I doubt it was to this degree. I feel like part of the secretiveness that Theo and then Ben developed was because they got burned when their intentions were known. I really like that he shares more or less what his plans are, but I hope he can combine that with pulling off quality moves. Seems like a lot is riding on them landing Price, Greinke or Cueto. I think Zimmerman might be one step below. Not that it matters, but fans will question whether he's an "ace". It can't be a good thing to know that the Sox are desperate to land a pitcher and that they don't see much hope via trade.

Yeah, as a700 said this package is too low--especially given what they just paid for Kimbrel (a reason I don't love that deal, as far as prospects go). And although I'm one to really hold onto prospects like the ones you listed in most circumstances, Fernandez is the first pitcher since Felix Hernandez back in 2008 who I would break the bank on... or at least consider it. The package to make MIA trade him would need to be an obvious win for them. So Devers (great piece), Owens (okay piece) and a 5-10 prospect wouldn't do it. I think you'd need another piece at the Devers level and then not be discerning about the back-end guys... so Moncada, Devers, Owens and another prospect or two for the Marlins to choose from--maybe keeping Benintendi off limits. Could get more interesting if they included Rodriguez or Swihart (or Vazquez) from the start. Maybe Eduardo, Owens, Devers and Espinoza. That's a LOT of talent but if he's healthy Fernandez is as good as they come considering his stuff and his age. If you remember how Theo tried to entice Seattle to move Felix it was basically "here's our top 20 prospects, choose six". The sox might be able to put one or two guys off limits but not very much.

Isn't he like 23? I give a wide berth for attitude at that age... especially if he's really good.

I guess I should have been clearer in my earlier post. Getting Price is a pipe dream because the Sox aren't dumb enough to blow him out of the water enough to get him. I mean, sure, if they offered $300m they would get him. But they wouldn't and shouldn't do that. He's a good pitcher, but he's not that much better than the other options out there. There's a point at which the asset simply isn't worth the overpay it would take to get him. And yes, money talks, but does money talk that much for everyone here? Imagine the job you're in now. If you like the job do you go to some other job for $1 more? $1000 more a year? If it's a bigger hassle, or has worse weather, or a bad commute or higher taxes? I mean, there's a lot of options here and, no matter which he chooses, he and his kids and grandkids will all be just fine. I really think there's an equation here that's more than X>Y. Yes, the money speaks and everyone has a 'blow me away' amount, but if another team/job is willing to offer virtually the same thing you would weigh the two. I don't actually know where Boston fits on Price's list. I just have a hard time believing it's at the very top, if he could play anywhere. You're right UN, they're not the Pirates. Neither are the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc., who might also be bidding for his services. EDIT: I'm a bit off my posting/opinion game. It should be clear that I'd be thrilled to be wrong about this. Seriously, please Price, prove me wrong.

I can't say I have a great one. It would have started with trading a big package for a true ace. But apparently, here in mid November, it's the case that no such deals are available and some of the pieces were already shipped for a closer. So my next play would be to strengthen the bullpen even more, if possible. Maybe sign O'Day so they can work toward becoming a 6 inning staff. I would also think about using Joe Kelly out of the bullpen. That guy's got an electric arm and would like to see if he could be a great setup guy. Let him compete with Tazawa. I'd keep Owens starting, as I think he can border between keeping them competitive most games and having some excellent starts. Then it's a matter of crossing fingers on guys like Buchholz, Porcello, Miley and Rodriguez. Maybe give Brian Johnson a shot at the rotation--he's actually been really good in the minors for a number of years. Perhaps there's a missed SP FA out there, like Gallardo or Kazmir who could be had for a reasonable amount. If the return isn't fantastic then don't pay as if it is. Longterm I would continue to stockpile the pieces and wait for that great young SP arm to be available via trade. Overall, I just don't know DD's negotiating tactics well enough. One thing I really appreciate about him is how candid he is about everything (seemingly). He answers questions without the BS that the old group (who I liked quite a bit) always did. When asked about how a decision is made, he just says how they made the decision. From Theo to Ben the Sox have said "well, we don't talk about the inner workings of our discussions but there was mutual interest" or whatever. In this instance though he's essentially said "we want a true ace" AND "we are planning to get it via FA". That's the kid of candor that the previous group would never have done--and I understand why. So if Price signs quickly, and Greinke decides he wants to go back to LA, and Zimmermann is swooped up, if I'm Cueto's agent I'm licking my chops thinking that I've got them backed into a corner. They've acknowledged they don't want to part with more prospects because the best remaining ones are pieces they'd prefer to keep. They've also acknowledged that the mission wouldn't be accomplished if there weren't an ace caliber SP on the roster come opening day. Sounds like they backed themselves into a corner. Not an inescapable one... but a corner nonetheless. But, again, I don't know how DD operates well enough to know if this is just a tactic or if he's truly just showing his cards. I could see how just showing his cards would be both endearing and would help build trust with other GMs and agents. Maybe he's just someone who's really clear and transparent. I don't know.

So the Kimbrel deal has its own page and its moving to discussion about what to do next... so I'm going to try to approach that here. I think getting Price is a pipe-dream. I don't think he loves Boston... he's not even neutral to it like another player from, say, LA or KC might be. He's actively been playing against them in a heated rivalry (with him at the center) for years. And the idea that they might blow him out of the water with an offer seems foolish. Blowing him out of the water would be absurd, since he's likely to command almost $200m to begin with. Just too much risk there. I think he'd be great, but I wouldn't build my offseason strategy around somehow being able to bring him in. At this point if he goes to a non-AL East team I will be happy. I like Greinke, but similarily I think he will have a number of good offers and, frankly, I don't know why he would choose Boston over others. If I had the choice between living in Boston and living rich in LA I think I know which I'd choose. Perhaps they could blow him out of the water a bit more easiliy, but still, wouldn't bet on it. Then there's Cueto. I think there's a chance the Sox could construct a creative deal with him, maybe high money short years with an opt-out clause or something. He's a good pitcher when he's on and if he stays healthy he could be fine. Just more risk, but perhaps the biggest spenders will have gone home with their prize at that point. Zimmermann I don't know well enough, other than having watched a few of his starts and tracked him over the past few years. He feels a bit like a good #2 to me. Should they maybe sign him with aspirations of still seeking that true "ace" somewhere else in future years? He might be the lowest cost of the bunch. All in all, I feel like Price is the only true "ace" of the bunch in that he has virtually no question marks about his performance. The rest have some risks and I'd rather the Sox don't spend money as if they're getting a true ace if they aren't. I would be happy with Price, Greinke or Cueto but I wouldn't feel like it necessarily vaults them into being an elite team... there's more work to be done there. The biggest difference maker for the Sox won't be these acquisitions. They might be key structural pieces who promote good things, but they're really banking on their youngsters to contribute at a high level and that has to happen. So Bogaerts needs to improve from last year, Betts needs to increase his consistency. Swihart needs to develop into a legitimate bat and signal caller over the next few years. Basically all of their young guys need to continue evolving into solid MLB players and then these signings will make a difference. They have a great collection of young talent between MLB rookie types and mid-to-upper level minor league talent. Get those guys going and this could be a really good thing. In the meantime, don't blow it.

I'm not really too excited to see the Sox deal with the Padres again for a bit. I expected Ross to be included when I saw the package of 4 players the Sox sent over. I'd hate to see a Swihart, Devers, Benintendi for Ross and all of Kemp's salary deal.

Seems like a stretch to say that they had no value to the Sox as future major leaguers. I don't really buy the line of argument that because someone is currently blocked they don't have a role on the team. Margot might have been up to Boston next season. Is there no belief that Castillo or Bradley might regress to something worse than Margot? Or that other opportunities might present themselves? Similarily with Guerra--he's a few years away. No chance Bogaerts gets hurt? Or, even more obviously, no chance that anyone else values Guerra higher over the next 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that the Sox were the ones without options when it comes to some of these prospects. All that said, I think it fits more neatly into the category of "you have to experience some pain to get good players" and that's all the justification we need. The relief market this year is weak and Kimbrel is arguably the best there is. That's all I need for justification. Sometimes you spend more than market value on a house or other items simply because you fall in love with it, and you stop worrying about the extra money spent because you love the house. In this case, if DD feels better knowing that the 9th inning is locked up 90% of the time over the next 3 years then I understand the reasoning. I just have a hard time believing that because the Sox have a couple OFs and a solid SS that suddenly those prospects are devalued. The Sox may be willing to part with them for that reason, but that shouldn't have much impact on their value.

Haven't read everyone's comments here, but here are my thoughts: Bold move by DD. Hard to know if it is a good move or not given all the moving pieces--it will take time. I can say that IF Margot and Guerra both reach their ceilings and Allen becomes a legitimate MLB pitcher then the Sox really sold low on them. They handed over a bunch of lottery tickets, but not the kind that are 1/1,000,000, but more like 1/5. I tend to be more on the conservative side with trading talent and I tend to frown on the notion of the "closer" being a truly critical role. But I'm willing to give DD the benefit of the doubt in being able to read the situation and project the impact of this on the rest of the team and roles. It does immediately give them a great setup man in Koji and puts Taz where he belongs. So it also makes the entire pitching staff much more of a 6 inning staff than needing to have horses; or, to put it another way, although they still want their pitchers to be horses they can afford to be a bit more mediocre. Kimbrel is a rare talent. There is literally one or two other people on the planet who have his combination of skills. You have to pay for that, whether its in architecture, art, music or relief pitching. There's a good chance that over the next few years I will say "I'm really glad we have him" many times. Dude is dominant. So yes, I'm waffling. It's too hard to tell right now how good the deal was. But I asked myself tonight whether I would have preferred a deal with just one of Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, or Benintendi and I don't think I would. In other words, if I had the choice of trading one of those guys or this group of four, I probably would have selected this group of four. So if that's the price to keep those high ceilings and get Kimbrel I may lament it at first but will probably be happy with the direction in short order.

I like that the Sox got Kimbrel. I don't like the package they gave up for him. Hoped they could get more for Margot. However, I won't be made if/when Kimbrel consistently closes the door in the 9th inning.

Yes, this is pretty much how I feel. Without a massive payday he'd be a fine addition. Even with pretty big contract I'd roll the dice with him, as long as they trade for another pitcher and go from there. He'd be a damn good #2 and has earned his payday... I might just prefer that the risk of that payday belong to someone else.

Hey a700. I'm in Portland, actually. So won't run into him at the grocery store. I just said Fernandez because he's about the top of the market in my opinion. Is there a better 23 or younger pitcher in baseball? Maybe Syndergaard? Those are the kinds of guys DD should be looking to build around. I'm not convinced the Sox would have to give up Betts or Bogaerts, especially for Fernandez. Syndergaard would probably take Betts because the Mets need offense now, but shouldn't take much more. If he does then it's too rich for my blood. Betts can play 2B and adds a lot of pop for that position. NY can find a CF/OF elsewhere and have a great team. Fernandez, on the other hand, is on a team that has a wide range of needs that the Sox can fill without taking away from their current team. Overall I suspect people are overestimating how many deals would actually require Betts or Bogaerts. Bogaerts especially. The kid has all the makings of a franchise anchor for the next 7-10 years--it's obvious. People outside of Boston realize this. Any team getting hung up and killing a deal because Betts or Bogaerts aren't included deserves to keep losing, given how much talent is behind them and available. I don't really like the idea of Harvey for one of those guys. The Sox can do better, at least in terms of what they give up. I love the talk about Aroldis Chapman. He's pretty much must-watch pitching. If they can move some pieces that aren't critical to the future then they should do it, even if they're not in "win now" mode. If they're having a hard time next year they can trade him at the deadline and probably get a good return. Hell, they got Eduardo Rodriguez for a few months of Andrew Miller.

Offseason thoughts: The Sox clearly would benefit from a genuine ace. I just reviewed David Price's performance over the last 5 years or so and he's really been good. I feel like I've watched him pitch so many times that he somehow seems less dominant than the other best pitchers. But his numbers from 2011 to now are very comparable to Felix Hernandez. He's 2nd in WAR to Kershaw during that period, Felix is 3rd, Scherzer 4th: NAME | IP | WAR | W | ERA | WHIP | K | K/9 | xFIP | Price | 1090.2 | 26.3 | 75 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 1070 | 8.83 | 3.13 | Felix | 1107.2 | 25.3 | 72 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 1100 | 8.94 | 2.97 | That's virtually the same profile. Lots of strikeouts, lots of innings, lots of success. I've always thought Felix was amazing... probably should give Price more props. It seems like a no-brainer to blow him away with an offer. But is it? I just don't know. He's still only 30, so he's likely got some good years left. At the same time he's 30 and coming around the bend into his later years. I suspect they'd enjoy most of a 6 year contract with him, but it will cost them max dollar to get him. Then there's Cueto--he's had some great seasons too. He's in his prime. If he's healthy then there's no reason to think he's going to be anything other than a very good pitcher for the next few years. But I don't know that he's a lock to be the best pitcher on the field 90% of his starts. And his decline in KC was rumored to be due to arm issues. Then he was fine in the World Series... hard to know. I think I like Cueto more than many do, so for him it all comes down to the price. For both of these guys I wonder whether they're actually what Dombrowski wants. Arguably his two best acquisitions were Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Both were 25 at the time of the deal. That's young enough to get prime-age production. I think that's key. If you're going to take a risk, do it with a trade. A younger pitcher for a couple of young prospects. And the Red Sox are loaded with young guys Dombrowski has little attachment to, and who are widely regarded as really good. To me all the pieces are there to get a franchise caliber young arm. I would blow some team out of the water. I've seen discussion about the Mets moving one of their starters. Seems like a long-shot. They're ready to win now. I would go hard for a guy like Jose Fernandez from Miami. Owens + Swihart + Bradley for Fernandez? He's only 23 and seems like the kind of pitcher who I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the best pitcher in the league in 5 years. I mean, what does Miami have going for them? Yes, they have some good young players but they're in no position to hold on to anyone at all costs. "Fine, Owens, Swihart, Bradley, Devers, whatever." Even a deal like this would leave the Sox with pretty good farm system (Moncada, Margot, Benintendi still there). Chris Sale would be another top preference. None of this would preclude them making a big FA splash but I'm not sure it would have to be this year. I'm still pretty intrigued by Stephen Strasburg, who is a FA next year at 28. He may get less than Price does, be younger, and potentially as dominant. There's a good chance none of these guys end up with the Sox, but I just have a hard time believing that Dombrowski will be satisfied with a 30+ year old, $25m year old pitcher as his big acquisition--especially because it will still leave him with more prospects than he can find room for. I don't think they should move Betts or Bogaerts under any circumstances. They have enough resources to get this player without either of them.

Hard to join this discussion out of nowhere, but here I go. So far I'd say that I was wrong being optimistic about this team during the off-season. I figured that Miley, Kelly, Porcello and Masterson would be able to produce at MLB average and the offense would carry them to a decent, but not dominant, season. Additionally, I thought that Bogaerts and Betts and Castillo would each offer some catalytic moments to round out a decent team. I didn't expect MVP production from Sandoval and Hanley, just solid MLB production. So far what we've seen has looked inexplicably bad in just about every area. Mediocrity at every position, with the exception perhaps of Pedroia and early flashes of optimism for Betts and Bogaerts. I still have high hopes but I do wonder if a fundamental change might need to happen to change the culture of the club. I'm not against trading for Cole Hamels, assuming the right price. I think he's got a bit of an edge to him and that might be good for them. And this club needs a stopper. Maybe not an "Ace" by traditional standards, but someone who could take the ball and virtually guarantee a competitive outing. Lester played that role for a long time and they could benefit from it. Hamels might play that role. I also wonder how Farrell's personality plays with this group behind closed doors. They have a fairly boring and listless demeanor on the field. They just look like they're going through the motions. I don't know if that's something a manager can control but leadership has its way of creating culture. That said, them looking boring and listless could be a function of their losing--it makes me feel boring and listless too. The pitching can't prevent runs so they're losing early and not holding leads when they get them. Most teams would look bad in that situation. Then there's Ben. I'm not in the camp that's ready to fire him. I don't think anyone within the organization was eager to blow the roof off to get Jon Lester back and I think there's probably alignment on how they approach free agency. Beyond that it's a matter of which decent but not super-expensive players you choose to fill out your roster. I was pretty pleased with their acquisition of Miley and Porcello, and okay with Masterson. I just hoped they'd move them all one spot lower in the rotation with another good pitcher. That hasn't happened yet. The player I miss most on this club is Christian Vazquez. He showed some great things defensively last year and I think a really good catcher can improve a pitching staff and defense considerably. He was a good leader on the field despite his age last year. Losing him has been tough. Overall I'm not ready to write them off yet but I'm already in the "this is pathetic" camp, and usually I don't go to that level until at least July.

I don't think it is as simple as how much would you pay for a #1 pick. That's one way of framing it, but it seems strange to me. They spent 60 million on a particular player, not a pick. I don't think they would have paid that much just to have the choice among all amateur players in any random year--I think who Moncada is is a big part of it. The kid is a freak. He's could end up being unlike any player the Sox have ever had. He could also flame out, but it's hard not to dream on him if you have the chance. I think this is somewhere between a FA signing and a draft pick. It's a luxury gamble, but I look forward to watching it play out.

Did you steal this theory from me at some point? I've thought the same thing. As someone who pitched in my youth I can speak to the jelly-like feeling that occurs when you're trying to throw the ball in a tough situation. What's worse is that you can not just give up hits to the other guy, but you can literally fail to throw the ball over the plate at all and totally embarrass yourself. It's such a mind game to pitch and I can only imagine what that's like when there's two guys on in the bottom of the 8th, up by a run in a playoff game, in front of 50,000 people and on TV in front of millions. Batters need to see ball/hit ball; pitchers need to repeat their entire motion, release the ball at the right time, etc., It just intuitively seems like something that has greater physical complexity and more room for error when the stakes are high. One thing I think would be neat for making the game more "modern" and TV friendly would be to try having heartbeat monitors (and maybe other vital signs) that the viewer at home can see. I bet there's the technology to do this without any interference with the player's performance. This could really help reflect the moments that are really tense in a different sort of way. Just a thought.