example1

In order of record off the top of my head: AL: Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, White Sox NL: Cubs, Mets, Phillies, D-Backs My mind may change as I think about it more...

I like how hard hitting Gammons was: (paraphrasing): Gammons: So you used from 2001 to 2003 and that was all A-Rod: that mostly covers it, yeah, that's pretty accurate Gammons: .... what did you use? Nice follow up Gammons. How about "That's mostly it? Is there anything else you would like to share with the viewers and your fans Alex?" God love Gammons, this isn't the type of interview he dreams about I'm sure, but seriously. What a flat curveball A-Rod threw him and he didn't take advantage of it.

This is a great post. We now Giambi roided in the minors. We know that Bonds was furious with all the attention Mac and Sosa got for their HR pursuits and that (supposedly) led him to start super-roiding. Ego plays a big part of it, but so does our competitive culture, so does the availability of roids, so does the lack of testing, etc., I guess my sense is that players moving forward who wish to be considered for the HOF or for "all time" records, should have to submit not just to random testing, but to planned, SUPER testing, and should be willing to waive their rights if they don't pass. Yes, there are not tests for everything (HGH) right now, but there will be, and those tests should be able to retroactively test samples (if it is possible). Contracts should be guaranteed only insofar as the player is not on steroids/growth hormone, and they should be able to be voided if something like this comes out, because the Yankees are paying for A-Roid, not A-Rod. A-Rod should have been 'allowed' (for lack of a better term) to meet his potential naturally, not feel forced to improve himself so he could catch up to the Dante Bichettes and Bret Boone's of the world just to prove what a natural talent he is. That's my problem with the "just let them roid, it's entertainment!" crowd. There are plenty of players who are good naturally and have no interest in messing up their bodies with this junk. I don't know who those players are any more, but I have my suspicions. I think we'll see more and more of these guys in the next few years, even with the designer drugs, because the consequence of having the news cycle looking closely at your legacy is a big consequence for people with these egos. I doubt that a guy like Dustin Pedroia would want his skill level questioned when he retires, especially if he's anywhere near a HOF discussion. I realize that my suggestions are improbable, and probably a violation of someone's individual rights, but now is the time for the players association and the players to come out and say "test me with anything, any day, any time. I'm willing to subject myself to daily, hell, hourly testosterone tests and if you find that I've cheated, you can void my contract and I'll pay you back a bunch of money. Keep my samples, test them later. I'm clean and I want to prove it beyond any reasonable doubt." They won't say that, but that's about the level it will need to come to if the fans are going to get to a place where they are trustworthy again. FWIW, I don't believe A-Rod that he only used from 2001 to 2003. The guy hit, what, 57 HR in NY? He happened to be good enough to get a 200m+ contract without any roids, and then decided that he needed to roid to prove to people that he was worth it? C'mon!

Good analysis. I wasn't going to do that myself, I'm glad you did. How many golden aged players did it for their first time after 35? What about if you expand beyond the top 100? Yes, yes it is unheard of to have a great season.. a top 100 of all-time season, in your mid 30s. If Babe Ruth if your comparison then I think that proves the point. If you said Duke Snyder and Willie McCovey and Willie Stargell and Reggie Jackson and twelve other guys from various eras had done it then, yeah, it is a common thing. If Babe Ruth is the only one who did it, then I think that means something is wrong. Ruth was the greatest hitter of all time, and we can be confident he didn't use PEDS. My guess is that it is unheard of to suddenly have a top 100 SLG season in your mid-30s when you haven't come close before. Overall, you are missing the point of "bolding" those players. Those are the guys who put up top 100 SLG seasons in the steroid era. That seems, to me, to be the beginning point of any discussion about the impact of the steroid era and the star players (like A-Rod, who was revelaed today) who might be involved. I'm not saying all of them are guilty, just that they all deserve a closer look, and "bolding" them makes it easier for people--like you--to pick them out and analyze them more closely. I thought the post would get too long if I broke each of the highlighted players down, and hoped someone else would take it on. You have. Ramirez, Griffey, Pujols, Helton, Lee, Vlad and Howard would all be on my "less suspicious" list, along with, maybe, Frank Thomas. That said, many people (myself included) are suspicious of Pujols due to his bodytype and insane production--I don't want to be, but I'm skeptical and he's on the line. Griffey and Manny are two true HOF players, I suspect they are both clean, but wouldn't be shocked if they had used for a short time too. Vlad has had a consistent injury history and had a trajectory similar to Griffey Jr., with speed and power early on, and a slow deterioration based on injuries later. I would love for Vlad to go down as a clean HOF player. That was the point of my list. By parsing it apart like that these things are easier to see, and I think it would be more telling to do top 300 seasons, or top 500. If a guy is consistently putting up seasons between the top 300 and top 100 then my guess is he has been consistent and didn't get the "power spike" that other players who are more clearly implicated have. That doesn't clear their name, but it may speak to their abuse of the game. Me too, but to what degree? To this degree? And does that expectation that "everyone is stronger, faster, and more aware" (and, I may add, have better "training techniques") enough to counter for HOF caliber talent that guys like Jimmy Foxx and Lou Gehrig obviously had? I don't know for sure, but I tend to think that someone like Babe Ruth would still be a good hitter today, possibly a great one. Same with some of those other guys who were unbelievable for their entire careers. You don't know that. I would consider "top 100 SLG season" to be ridiculous levels. Maybe you wouldn't but that group of players is pretty elite until Luis Gonzalez and Sammy Sosa show up. There is plenty of reason to suggest that all of these seasons are thanks to the roids-era... unfortunately. I wish it wasn't that way, but I think if you're not suspicious of a non-HOF caliber player putting up HOF-caliber numbers that have been cemented for 7 decades, then the wool is being pulled over your eyes. The guys who have the big power spike are easy to spot, so are the guys who are HOF caliber and who then use (Bonds, Clemens). I think the toughest group are the guys who are big power hitters who either benefited from the drugs, or are freaks of nature. Pujols, Ortiz, Teixeira, Thomas, Albert Belle, etc., who knows with these guys? I'm just not going to give everyone the benefit of the doubt, and to expect that everyone used something at some point. Until the PA gets stronger with its players I don't think any critical fan has much choice.

And I think that is exactly the point. Those are all the guys who did it during the past 15 years. If you look at them individually I think one could point out guys who are strongly suspicious and guys who are less suspicious. All of them are suspicious.

All Time 100 SLG Seasons: [Players under suspicion for 'roid use in bold.] http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SLG_season.shtml 1. Barry Bonds* (36) .8634 2001 L 2. Babe Ruth+* (25) .8490 1920 L 3. Babe Ruth+* (26) .8463 1921 L 4. Barry Bonds* (39) .8123 2004 L 5. Barry Bonds* (37) .7990 2002 L 6. Babe Ruth+* (32) .7722 1927 L 7. Lou Gehrig+* (24) .7654 1927 L 8. Babe Ruth+* (28) .7644 1923 L 9. Rogers Hornsby+ (29) .7560 1925 R 10. Mark McGwire (34) .7525 1998 R 11. Jeff Bagwell (26) .7500 1994 R 12. Barry Bonds* (38) .7487 2003 L Jimmie Foxx+ (24) .7487 1932 R 14. Babe Ruth+* (29) .7391 1924 L 15. Babe Ruth+* (31) .7374 1926 L 16. Sammy Sosa (32) .7366 2001 R 17. Ted Williams+* (22) .7346 1941 L 18. Babe Ruth+* (35) .7317 1930 L 19. Ted Williams+* (38) .7310 1957 L 20. Mark McGwire (32) .7305 1996 R 21. Frank Thomas (26) .7293 1994 R 22. Hack Wilson+ (30) .7231 1930 R 23. Rogers Hornsby+ (26) .7223 1922 R 24. Lou Gehrig+* (27) .7212 1930 L 25. Larry Walker* (30) .7201 1997 L 26. Albert Belle (27) .7136 1994 R 27. Larry Walker* (32) .7100 1999 L 28. Babe Ruth+* (33) .7090 1928 L 29. Al Simmons+ (28) .7076 1930 R 30. Lou Gehrig+* (31) .7064 1934 L 31. Mickey Mantle+# (24) .7054 1956 B 32. Jimmie Foxx+ (30) .7044 1938 R 33. Jimmie Foxx+ (25) .7033 1933 R 34. Stan Musial+* (27) .7021 1948 L 35. Babe Ruth+* (36) .7004 1931 L 36. Todd Helton* (26) .6983 2000 L 37. Babe Ruth+* (34) .6974 1929 L 38. Manny Ramirez (28) .6970 2000 R 39. Mark McGwire (35) .6967 1999 R 40. Lou Gehrig+* (33) .6960 1936 L 41. Rogers Hornsby+ (28) .6959 1924 R 42. Hugh Duffy+ (27) .6939 1894 R 43. Jimmie Foxx+ (31) .6938 1939 R 44. Albert Belle (28) .6905 1995 R 45. Tip O'Neill (29) .6905 1887 R 46. Luis Gonzalez* (33) .6880 2001 L 47. Barry Bonds* (35) .6875 2000 L 48. Mickey Mantle+# (29) .6868 1961 B 49. Chuck Klein+* (25) .6867 1930 L 50. Sam Thompson+* (34) .6865 1894 L 51. Todd Helton* (27) .6848 2001 L 52. Hank Greenberg+ (27) .6834 1938 R 53. Kevin Mitchell (32) .6806 1994 R 54. Rogers Hornsby+ (33) .6794 1929 R 55. Babe Herman* (27) .6775 1930 L 56. Barry Bonds* (28) .6772 1993 L 57. Jim Thome* (31) .6771 2002 L 58. Ken Griffey* (24) .6744 1994 L 59. Joe DiMaggio+ (22) .6731 1937 R 60. Babe Ruth+* (27) .6724 1922 L 61. Joe DiMaggio+ (24) .6710 1939 R 62. Albert Pujols (26) .6710 2006 R 63. Hank Greenberg+ (29) .6702 1940 R 64. Hank Aaron+ (37) .6687 1971 R 65. Hank Greenberg+ (26) .6684 1937 R 66. Willie Mays+ (23) .6673 1954 R 67. Ted Williams+* (27) .6673 1946 L 68. Albert Pujols (23) .6667 2003 R 69. Mickey Mantle+# (25) .6646 1957 B 70. Carlos Delgado* (28) .6643 2000 L 71. George Brett+* (27) .6637 1980 L 72. Vladimir Guerrero (24) .6637 2000 R 73. Manny Ramirez (27) .6628 1999 R 74. Lou Gehrig+* (28) .6624 1931 L 75. Larry Walker* (34) .6620 2001 L 76. Norm Cash* (26) .6617 1961 L 77. Derrek Lee (29) .6616 2005 R 78. Babe Ruth+* (37) .6608 1932 L 79. Jason Giambi* (30) .6596 2001 L 80. Ryan Howard* (26) .6592 2006 L 81. Travis Hafner* (29) .6586 2006 L Willie Mays+ (24) .6586 1955 R 83. Ralph Kiner+ (26) .6576 1949 R 84. Chuck Klein+* (24) .6575 1929 L 85. Babe Ruth+* (24) .6574 1919 L 86. Albert Pujols (24) .6571 2004 R 87. Willie McCovey+* (31) .6558 1969 L 88. Albert Belle (31) .6552 1998 R 89. Sam Thompson+* (35) .6543 1895 L 90. Jimmie Foxx+ (26) .6531 1934 R 91. Albert Pujols (28) .6527 2008 R 92. Chick Hafey+ (27) .6525 1930 R 93. Rudy York (23) .6507 1937 R 94. Ted Williams+* (30) .6502 1949 L 95. Bill Joyce* (28) .6479 1894 L 96. Lou Gehrig+* (25) .6477 1928 L 97. Ted Williams+* (23) .6475 1942 L 98. Duke Snider+* (27) .6473 1954 L 99. Barry Bonds* (29) .6471 1994 L 100. Jason Giambi* (29) .6471 2000 L Since I like lists, here's the above list with all the players who played in the "Roid Era", and their ages when they put up a top 100 SLG, in order of their best SLG season: Bonds: 36, 39, 37, 38, 35, 28, 29, McGwire: 34, 32, 35 Bagwell: 26 Sosa: 32, Thomas: 26 Walker: 30, 32, 34 Belle: 27, 28, 31 Helton: 26, 27 Ramirez: 28, 27 L. Gonzalez: 33 K. Mitchell: 32 Thome: 31 Griffey Jr: 24 Pujols: 26, 23, 24, 28 Delgado: 28 Guerrero: 24 D. Lee: 29 Giambi: 30, 29 Howard: 26 Hafner: 29 First of all, the list is really big, disturbingly so. Are any of these guys beyond suspicion? I would say that Griffey Jr's 24 y.o season looks pretty good. As does Ryan Howard's age 26 season--if only because of his ballpark. Maybe Vlad's 24 y.o season, he's a physical freak. Pujols's age and his bunching of results in the lower tier of this list looks okay, but his body still concerns me. I can safely say that I have suspected every one of the players at one time or another. Luis Gonzalez at 33? Sosa at 32? How about Bagwell at 26? With Caminitti and, ironically, Luis Gonzalez (who had 8 HR, and 67 RBI in 119 games!). Mostly, it makes me sad that 38 of the top 100 SLG seasons have happened in the past 15 years, and some guys only produced at that level only once. The rest of the list is filled with guys like Williams, Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, Greenberg, and then a bunch of modern guys.

Unfortunately, I'm with you on this.

I'm also disgusted that there are no consequences for this for A-Rod or the Yankees. I understand why there aren't, because it was a 'safe' test in 2003 to tell how many were using. What disgusts me is that on one hand we have a star who was supposed to break the HR record 'clean' who will never miss a game for it, on the other hand we have a picture of Michael Phelps smoking a bong and he is suspended for 3 months. It wasn't performance enhancing, it wasn't sports related, it was simply ripping from a (nice) glass bong. I bet A-Rod has done that before too.

This is good news and not altogether shocking. A-Rod is a big guy who got bigger around that time and has not lost that size. He's just 'beefed up'. People are crazy if they don't think Red Sox were caught up in steroids too. The bodies of Nixon, Nomar and Tek were all inflated at that time. Pedro had arguably the best two pitching seasons in history at the peak of the steroid era... not sure what that means but it is an eerie coincidence. Ortiz went from mediocre hitter like WMP to yearly MVP candidate. I am not convinced that Ortiz used, but it wouldn't shock me. There are a lot of other guys in that era who came and went quickly and who weren't significant contributers--Dante Bichette, Carlos Baerga, etc., I'm willing to acknowledge that no team, and no player is completely clean and that Sox fans today should not throw stones lest those stones come back with a "Tek Used" tell-all, or a "Pedro tested positive" headline sometime in the future. Hell, the Red Sox were mere moments away from trading Manny and Nomar to get A-Rod and Magglio in 2004, so they aren't completely 'clean' on this stuff. That said, I'm also willing to acknowledge that I'm VERY HAPPY the Yankees are being called out as cheaters. While Clemens, Pettitte and A-Rod didn't use necessarily in the locker room, why would the Yankees get these guys without giving them a test--if they were so concerned about their image? My guess is they think that wins and records outweigh image and I think they were right. Yankee fans should be embarassed and ashamed today. This will be a piece of ammo that can be used against any future accomplishment, and will be a weight around A-Rod's shoulders all year.

I have played Baseball Mogul in the past and have been a little disappointed by it. OOTP has full minor league rosters, and a deep minor league system. Like Mogul it has all the GM features like trades and drafts and whatnot. I've just been very impressed with OOTP, it is extremely deep and seems to have the ability to adjust just about every facet of the game. So far there have been less times where I've said "Jeez, they didn't get that right!" with this than BM. It's also cool because I downloaded modified 2009 rosters from a forum and they are very accurate including acquisitions and 2008 draft picks. I definitely recommend that game if someone is totally bored, has a little money, and wants to get their GM on.

Anyone try "MLB Front Office Manager"? It was released a few weeks back. I didn't, the reviews were horrible. Instead, I got Out of the Park Baseball 9 on the computer. It's a pretty amazing game, actually.

That doesn't look like something I would say.... just sayin'

Yeah, it wasn't worth even finishing the sentence at the time apparently. That's how little luster those photos held for me!

Yeah, that's one of the lamest things I've seen in awhile. I mean, a picture of the inside of an empty truck and the cab of an empty truck? Guy sweeping snow? Seems like all the luster of a Wal-Mart midnight delivery.

Did the Yankees also make an offer for a huge crate of HGH to go in their special HGH refridgerator next to Pettitte's locker in the new stadium?

What does that have to do with it? Rose plowed through the minors for the same reason that Sox fans 'thought' he was a good prospect. Their system sucked, and they always needed help on the big club. That isn't the case any more, so Bowden can go more slowly and develop better. Perhaps the best comparison because Bowden is 'only' at AAA now is their AA numbers: [table] Brian Rose |age 20 | 164 IP |115 K | 6.31 K/9 | 2.47 BB/9 | 4.01 ERA | 1.23 WHIP Michael Bowden | age 20-21 | 200.3 IP | 183 K | 8.22 K/9 | 2.56 BB/9 | 3.28 ERA | 1.17 WHIP [/table] It certainly looks like they're comparable to me, and I would rather have the guy with more K's and a better WHIP who has longer to develop. Why not pull out your own numbers then? From all that I see, Snyder stopped striking out 1/IP after his first short-season A season at age 21 when he struck out 25 in 24 IP. So the only think you're basing your comment on is that these players were hyped by teams hungry for young pitching so Buchholz could be a disappointment? When they're all we have then they should mean something. Especially when we haven't seen much of the players. In this case, I've seen a lot of Buchholz (and I'm sure you have too) and I'm comfortable saying his stuff justifies the impressive K numbers and very solid minor league WHIP. He's not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, but--as I said above--I feel confident that he will be a very good MLB starter.

Oh! The "flawed logic" route to disprove my point, huh? Given that you used that as your argument, you clearly accept the premise that his secondary stuff is better than anyone on Boston's staff. I figured that would be the hard part to prove. Thanks for granting it. I think that Beckett, Lester and Dice-K have better secondary stuff than most pitchers in baseball. If Buchholz's secondary stuff is better than Beckett, Lester and Dice-K (which you granted), and those guys have better secondary stuff than those "most MLB pitchers" then Buchholz's secondary stuff is, by extension, better than most pitchers in baseball. The list of MLB pitchers who have a better curveball or better changeup would be less than 30 IMO. The list of MLB pitchers who have BOTH a better curveball and better changeup would be less than 20. Like Dojii said, the only piece he is missing is his FB, which has the velocity just not the command yet.

No it isn't. Career Milb #'s: Snyder: 337.2 IP, 255 K, 320 H, 79 BB, 3.68 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Buchholz: 344 IP, 417 K, 252 H, 95 BB, 2.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP On 11-3-07 I wrote (Buchholz #'s updated with 2008 stats): With 2008 included Buchholz still leads this group in both categories, and has far more IP at the AAA level than any of the others. Take it for what it's worth, but make sure you include Brian Rose, so we get a good comparison. Me too. Good thing nobody goes around putting guns to peoples' heads to make decisions like that.

I have as much faith in Buchholz as I have in any prospect the Sox have had since the Theo era started. His stuff is simply too developed and too effective to not turn him into a top tier MLB starter--barring injuries. The Sox seem to still have a lot of confidence about that and I think it is for good reason. He has 3 pitches that are each better than the best pitch of most MLB pitchers, with his fastball being the weakest. A lot of people would love to see this guy fail, because the worst nightmare for a lot of teams is a team as good and loaded as the Sox developing an All-Star pitcher from within for the MLB minimum salary. The Sox have the potential to have two between Clay and Lester.

Why wouldn't they commit serious money to him this year if they were going to do it next year?

Sounds reasonable to me. It seems inevitable eventually.