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Want to know what's overrated? The importance of keeping a single catcher for a single .500 pitcher. Could you imagine if another team did that? It's an extravagance, and is one of the areas of 'cutting chaffe' that the Sox should look into now. Get two catchers, don't base either of their value on whether they can catch a knuckleball, base it on how they can catch the other 11 or 12 guys on the pitching staff.

I find this site to be a bit cynical for my taste lately too. I don't buy the "3rd best team" argument. I think that this s*** gets worked out over the course of the season. The Sox could win the division, they could finish 2nd, they could finish 3rd. I'm not sure why everyone is ready to just give the AL East title to the Yankees and the Wild Card to the Rays. I don't get it. On paper I would likely want to have the Sox over any of the other three if I combine MLB club and minor league talent. There is so much that can happen over the course of the season that I find the determinism to be kind of sickening. That's about all I'll say on the topic here. It's tiresome to hear so many people bitching that we don't have a $150m payroll. It would be okay with people if we had signed Brad Penny 4 years ago at 12m a year, even if he was injured. They would say "at least we're putting our financial muscle to work". If we had a lot of s***** contracts but were spending 150m everyone would feel better? I don't think so. I'm willing to let the season play out and expect that there could be any number of possible outcomes.

I bet they did care but they needed a SS. Do you think they DON'T care about losing a draft pick? If so then you're dumb.

You're right. It would really suck if we drafted an Ellsbury, Masterson, Pedroia, Youkilis, Delcarman, Papelbon, Buchholz, Bowden or Lowrie with the draft picks we saved by signing Penny instead of Sheets. I'm in complete agreement and think that your reactionary way of thinking is just perfect to show this FO how wrong they have been. They clearly don't know how to run an organization or get a team to the playoffs. I HATED celebrating in 04 and 07 when they won, and I really disliked my experience of watching the team get deep into the playoffs in 03 and 08 when they were one game from the World Series while every other team, and their AMAZING FO's were watching on TV.

5m plus incentives? I'd say that's a good deal. I think he's a better bet than Colon was, with the possibility of actually pitching from early on in the season... somewhat better than Colon and Wade Miller.

For CC and Tex I think you are right. For D-Lowe or Sheets or Varitek I don't necessarily agree. That's why those decisions matter.

This is insane. Nobody would give up a top pitching prospect for a catching prospect, let alone two pitching prospects and more to get a guy like Salty. That's why nothing like this will likely happen. I've thought Carter would be a good fit for the Mariners for awhile now too. Jesus, when you have Cairo playing 1B for you, you know your team needs some offense.

So every other team passed on him because he told Boston he wouldn't sign? Then he acts like a bitch when other teams didn't want to sign him? That seems to be the fault of either Teixeira for saying that he wouldn't sign, or the other teams for not doing their due diligence. None of the other 29 teams took a chance on him and he blames the Red Sox? I mean, the Sox FO was probably douchey at the time, but seriously. That's fine. He will get the same booing treatment that A-Rod gets in Boston.

From what I can see, Penny is an unrestricted free agent who doesn't lose the Sox a draft pick. Can anyone else varify that? If so I think he's a better pickup than someone like Sheets who would have cost them a pick. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents I think they will keep Bowden and Buchholz and will try to move lower-level guys if they're going to get a catcher. NYY fans may dis this move, as it isn't who the Yankees got. However, this guy was an all star in 06 and 07, and finished third in the Cy Young voting in 07. Not bad for a randon 1-year pickup. Perhaps he will be a bust, but there's reason to think he's a good starter.

My Plan B: I've put a lot of thought into this recently. 1) The more I think about it, the more I don't think we should be throwing Bowden's name around to get us whatever piece we want. Unless we're quite sure we're talking about the catcher of the future, I don't think we should move Bowden at all. We've drafted a number of pitchers over the past few years, and few have had the milb success that he's had. He had a nice mlb start last year and is ready to start contributing on the MLB level, at 21 years of age. His motion is unorthodox, but he has a solid repetoire and was one of those guys in HS that most people believed would be a big-league pitcher. Looking at his frame and numbers tells me he could be a workhorse, if he is able to stay healthy. I see him as a #2 or #3 pitcher on an average team, maybe a #3 or 4 on the Sox ultimately. That's not a bad thing to have. 2) I would look for another catching option before re-signing Tek. Ultimately I would not worry about getting that next-gen catcher if it isn't obvious where he is going to come from. Don't let Texas extort because in the next two years they may be in a better position to get one. If the deal is right get it, but otherwise don't overspend on it. I think this is a spot where signing a type B FA would be fine, or trading some lower level parts for a catcher like the deal with Eric Byrnes and Montero, which may cost more but could net them some useful pieces. 3) Get a backup 1B who can hit a bit, so Youkilis can be insurance for Lowell. Not sure who that would be at this point, but it seems like 1B is an easier position to fill at this point than 3B is. 4) I think I advocated earlier for signing Sheets or Lowe, but I'm retracting that. I want them to keep as many of their draft picks as possible and get as many top picks as possible. Let Buchholz and Bowden battle for the #5 spot. At their cost they will provide a good enough start for this team to win consistently, they don't carry the health concerns of those other guys, and they won't cost the team draft picks. None of those pitchers will make the difference that a top pick could. EDIT: Penny is an unrestricted FA. He fits the mold of a highish upside pitcher who will need to pitch well to get a good contract and will not cost them a pick. Overall I guess that's about it. I'm not too worried about SS, as I think that Lowrie is actually a very nice player who will be a key to their IF for a number of years (if he's not traded). They've drafted a number of SS recently, but none of them look very promising--it could be 3-4 years before Kelly is ready, if he stays at SS and if he doesn't pitch. This FO sees no reason why they can't build a franchise that can have the majority of their talent come from within, and I support that vision. Currently they have Buchholz, Bowden, Lester, Masterson, Delcarmen, Papelbon, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Lowrie contributing or ready to contribute, and I see no reason to think they couldn't get that number up to 15 of their 25m roster with names like Bard, Tazawa, Anderson, Lin, Westmoreland, Middlebrooks, Reddick, Kalish, Hagadone, etc., working their way up the ranks. They clearly value draft picks and are centering their 'moneyball' approach (in this case, looking for the exploitable loophole) around getting as many draft picks as possible and developing players that way. I think it is smart and hope it continues.

Kilo- I agree with the premise that just because the Yankees spent an absurd amount of money previously does not mean they should aim to spend that amount again, or that anything less is somehow "cutting payroll". However, I think the exact same standard applies for the Red Sox, who have paid in the 120-135m range the past few years and suddenly find themselves in the lower payroll area. This is likely due to, surprise, the departure of Manny Ramirez and his significant salary. He made up somewhere between 1/5th and 1/7th of their payroll and he's "off the books" (no, not really, they'll be paying him for a long time). I don't think salary reallocation is a good measurement of a team having made good use of their money.

Really? Aren't they mostly replacing Varitek (.220avg, s*** the rest of the way down), Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay? I don't think they need to do a hell of a job with these things, and I actually don't think they need to spend a lot of prospects to get a top-notch young catching talent the more I think about it. Certainly not someone as talented as Buchholz. I agree with you whole heaertedly. Bay approximates Holliday, but will cost less, is happy in Boston, and is currently in Boston seeking a deal. I don't know what the hold-up is with him, but I won't be shocked if sometime between now and the beginning of the year something is worked out. He should be paid handsomely. So, perhaps the Sox agree with you? I have my doubts about his longterm viability at 3B, and see Anderson coming and know that Ortiz is the everyday DH. If they are concerned about where Youk fits in then perhaps they look at moving him, like a700 suggested (if they got Teixeira). I assume that if they aren't working on those deals there are legitimate reasons why. I think that if your job were to be GM you would make mistakes and you would have successes, but I doubt you would be more methodical or more committed to winning than the baseball ops group has. Whether they have the money to spend is another matter, dictated (I assume) by ownership.

First of all, solid, coherent post Kilo. A few points, if I may: 1) I agree with you completely about the draft picks and consistency. Alex Meyer wants 3m and the Sox offer 2m? I admit, it's a s*** load of money, but not compared to what he will get at his first extension as a 1st round pick for (insert non-Red Sox team here). That s*** doesn't make any sense to me. Part of the reason I made this post was because I'm curious whether the Teixeira deal will ultimately push them to do that. Is it possible that they are avoiding all type-A free agents so they can draft the absolute best prospects, and sign every single one of them without delay? FWIW, they have signed every top 10 round pick for the past 4 years, except for Hunter Morris in the 07 draft. Also, I think it is important to note that they have dropped 1.8m on Tazawa and 1.5m on Almanzar in the past two years as well. They should double their efforts in this respect, and sign every single player that they want. 2) I think they are putting the best product on the field, and that not spending a lot of money on guys like Youkilis who have two years of arbitration left doesn't seem too incompatable with the 'rational' approach to contract offering. If they signed him to 15m/yr deals and he ends up injured for whatever reason, then they are burdened with that deal and can be criticized for it. They have a little room left in his case. Papelbon has said directly that he wants to become a FA. I don't know what to expect from that. I do know that teams can be lulled into overspending on a closer, even when the job of a closer (usually coming into a game with nobody on and a lead) is replaceable. I think Papelbon is a special closer, but he's clearly got his eyes on the prize. 3) They may or they may not. I think that objectively they have a solid team from top to bottom They also have some things to figure out (#5 pitcher, C, backup OF) but not things that should ultimately make the difference. If they play well they could make the playoffs. That said, this could be a ONE playoff-team division next year, with the three top teams beating on each other. The AL Central may ultimately benefit. Personally, I'm not going to cry if they don't make the playoffs and I will be excited if they do. I don't think the FO is assuming that because last year happened, this year they will get there. I think we can hope for better performances from Beckett, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Lowrie (i.e., the shortstop position). I think we can expect a better performance from the catching position, and, frankly, the 08 team actually UNDERPERFORMED based on their pythag. I see reason to think this will be a competitive team, but every year in baseball is filled with surprises. 4) I don't think that spending money always improves the team. We agree with the importance of drafting. I think the type of money you are talking about is on expensive FAs, which means that somehow the Sox are at fault for having traditionally expensive positions covered by young, inexpensive talent: 1B, CF, LF, CP, #5 starter, which was their goal all along. They could easily have a payroll 30m higher than they do currently, but they wouldn't be as good, IMO. They could have Johnny Damon in CF for 14m per-season, not covering enough ground; they could have spent 13m (or whatever) on K-Rod, because they could have traded Papelbon for a 'proven star', they could have spent money to get Mike Cameron or some other expensive, 'proven' CF, but they have developed from within. I think the money you're talking about is ultimately somewhere between what they have allocated currently, and what they usually spend ($120-$130m). Otherwise, I'm glad you find the topic interesting. You make some good points and you and I are in complete agreement about needing to sure up their minor league picks. Matt Laporta and Alex Meyer should be at the top of the board at Soxprospects, along with a number of other people who I don't even know about . You will get no disagreement from me: if they're truly going to develop their machine then there's no reason to hold back over 3m here or 4m there. EDIT: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/12/28/search_party/?page=5 article re: Sox farm spending, development

I think the contingency plan was to do nothing. It was either get Teixeira, or stick with Youkilis or Lowell How the hell do you know what they're working on? I have seen the same reports you have from Youk's agent saying they aren't talking any more because they were disagreeing on terms of a deal, but I don't know the same about Bay. Also, from what I see (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html) Youkilis still has two seasons before FA. Am I seeing that wrong? I see he was paid in 05, 06, 07 and 08 as full MLB seasons, of which he has a little more than 4 currently. I agree with you that both of these guys should be re-signed, but I don't assume the FO is just twiddling their thumbs being complacent.

Theo was named executive of the year by Baseball America. Good article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/awards/executive-of-the-year/2008/267270.html

My guess is that Papelbon will want to be the highest paid closer in baseball when he is a FA and the Sox will not pay him, given their belief that they can come up with someone who is (some percentage) as good as Papelbon, for 1/20th the difference. If he were asking for a reasonable amount of money then I'm sure they would be happy to sign him to a longer deal. There's always room in the pen for a reasonably cheap arm. He won't be reasonably cheap, so they won't offer him anything longterm.

Why? What more is there to say? They wanted him, they didn't get him, there are myriad reasons. Move on. Part of it was money and what the Sox were willing to offer, part of it was Boras, part of it was Teixeira's desire to play in NY.

I think the next stage of the moneyball + big money approach needs to be heavy investment in drafted players. Let Matt LaPorta go? No. Let Meier go? No. Why not spend 2m or 3m on the players you want in the draft? If you're going to be a player development machine then get the guys you want and don't hold back. YOu get them for 6 years for crying out loud. If the Sox are truly going to transition away from FAs they should take great delight in signing the very best young talent and even if they miss on 3/4 of them, they will have 6 years of MLB control over them and will get them cheaper than they would paying for ONE big market free agent. EDIT: I know the Sox spend a lot of money already in player development. However, would anyone have a problem if they drafted only guys that they want, and blew other teams out of the water with their signing bonuses? It seems likely that the Sox could become the Yankees of player development, it would cost less, produce about as much, and they would be doing something that other teams can't cry "foul" over... at least if Yankee fans are saying nobody can cry foul over their FA spending, spending 1/10th of that would be a harmless and effective way of improving the team.

I'm basically done with Wakefield.

The Sox are not going to pay Youkilis 23m a year. I just don't see it. I think the Youkilis negotiations could get ugly, actually. I hope the Sox come in with a high value contract, maybe 80m/5 years or something along those lines. If he doesn't take that then he, just like the rest of players lately, is thumbing his nose at 'the nation' and taking the money. We have to remember, we care about this team, this franchise, the ballpark, the other fans, the history. These players are introduced to the system, but many of them don't have any deep connection to the Sox the way that we do. I think Youkilis has shown some of the best heart of any Sox player in many years and he seems to have internalized the Sox nation mantra the last few years. It is easy to forget that his heart doesn't pump the red, white and blue of the Sox. Offer him a large deal, if he doesn't take it drive a hard bargain.

Smoltz threw over 200 IP in 05, 06 and 07. He's been as durable as they come for a long time. If he's healthy he's a good bet. Sheets is less resiliant, but he threw almost 200ip last year. I think if they're healthy, they will start every 5th day. Wakefield hasn't been completely healthy either. I'm of the camp that believes it isn't worth spending tons of money just for fun, but I think it is likely that they end up with a catcher who isn't super expensive (even if Varitek comes back), and they have a payroll currently of somewhere around (below?) 90m. Why NOT take a risk and sign a Sheets or Smoltz for a year. If they are injured they can join Lugo on the bench and have them come off the books next year.