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Me too. It seems inevitable, especially if he's willing to sign a short contract. What the hell else is he waiting for? Seems unlikely that he would be turning down 2 year deals unless he really wanted to play for another team... I think he wants to be a Yankee, wants a multi year contract, and that the Yankees would be stupid not to offer it to him. Hell, if they're spending all this money to win now, just sign the future HOF and get it over with.

I may have been a bit harsh to a700hitter above. I apologize to him if I was unnecessarily so and have PM'd him too. I don't like being told that I do nothing but baseless speculation, and took it personally. He didn't deserve harshness. e1

I generally make posts with stats and I try to make posts that bring numbers into the picture. I have, in the past few months, spent upwards of 2 hours on a single post, going through the minute stats and numbers to make logical arguments. I could do the same about the averageness of Arroyo, if I felt like it was worth my time. It isn't. If someone else wants to, they certainly could. I haven't seen it yet, because it isn't worth their time either. From your Trade Youkilis for Helton, Youk sucks! arguments, to this doozie on 5/3/06 "Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples "this kid is like david eckstein, but a little slower, and with more gap power." A700hitter: "and the benefit of a slower Eckstein is...? or: "Cano has classic hitters stroke. He has good size too so he's got some power. Pedroia is very small and his swing is big and wild. He makes contact, but he should be slapping the ball or hitting down on it. He's too small to be taking such a big swing. He needs to think like a #2 hitter and go to RF with the ball. He's got a lot of work to do on his stroke if he wants to be consistent at this level." Why should I take a scolding from you about how to evaluate a player, or how to talk about this game? I'm sure your argument now is much more nuanced... let's see... Really? All we know is that he has 38 wins in 3 years, huh? I guess that sums up your perspective right there. Step 1: Reduce a complex question into a simple variable. Step 2: Choose a useless way of describing that variable. Step 3: belittle other people's attempts at more complex analysis while exhaulting your own brilliance, sharply crafted over decades of watching baseball. I guess so... I didn't miss Arroyo in 2007 or 2008. I'm pretty much done with Arroyo. I just hear more certainty. You NEVER trade a #5 starter for a project. NEVER, EVER, EVER. Seems a bit extreme. Since you're in the business of judging the lessons that other people should learn from their mistakes, what lesson did you learn when Pedroia became an MVP and Youkilis became one of the best players on one of the best teams in baseball? I'm sure you drew SOME lesson about poo-pooing minor leaguers or draft picks or young talent, or paying too much for players who aren't worth it, right? I wasn't defending it. I stated clearly that "in retrospect he was more valuable than WMP, but few fault them for trying to find another diamond in the rough with WMP". That's not defending. The Sox got Arroyo off of waivers, from PIT, where he had a combined WHIP over 1.50 for the three seasons of intermittent playing time prior. He pitched a total of 27 IP the season before they got him, and they got the most out of him and dealt him at the right time. They signed Arroyo to a sweet hometown discount and traded him. If he wanted to hit the open market as a FA he would have made more than the Sox were willing to give him, therefore, they likely would not have signed him... UNLESS he took a hometown discount as a FA. They probably would have let him go, as a type-B FA and got draft picks for him. I'm not sure how I could possibly know that, it certainly isn't a pattern the Sox have gotten into recently and certainly not something they are concerned about anymore. Pure conjecture! Given that he DID take a hometown discount, and they traded him, it is reasonable to conclude that they would have traded him if he had accepted a hometown discount later, and more likely that they would have wanted the draft picks in return instead. I'm not saying it is gospel, but I think it is indicative of their view of Arroyo. They didn't think he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and they were right.

No. The post was bashing you, not Arroyo. You were making him out to be something really special, a 200+ IP guy. The point of my post was that even if he had not been traded in 2006, he wouldn't still be on the team without a big discount, and given that he took that discount initially and was traded, chances are the same thing would have happened again. The Sox FO didn't view him as that valuable (in retrospect he was more valuable than WMP, but few fault them for trying to find another diamond in the rough with WMP). In either case, nobody would be talking about him now. If you don't like that nobody agrees with you that Arroyo is somehow the savior that this team is missing out on--because of his oh so valuable 200+ IP capabilities--then tough. I can tell you to "not read the thread" as much as you can tell me to do the same. Given that so far the people who have lemented the loss of Arroyo for the Sox are YOU, JACKO, and A700HITTER, that should give you a pretty good idea of how important we hold his services. Not very.

Nobody cares about Arroyo. Nobody is missing him, no matter how much you may argue to the contrary. Last year the Yankees pitching staff sucked. Did you guys sit around missing Javier Vazquez or Jon Lieber (both of whom approached 200 IP in 2004)? It just doesn't matter to any of us. If it did there would be a thread, something like "Am I the only one who misses Arroyo?" and we would all be agreeing "Yes, I miss Arroyo too" and "Boy, this team would really be unstoppable if they just had Arroyo". It's a non-issue, pushed by a number of non-Red Sox fans toward the end of the hot stove season. Get over it. My economic argument, along with the "let's try WMP" argument, combined with the "he's nothing better than a #5" argument all hold enough water to easily counter the "he'll give you 200+ IP" argument. None of us care. He's not Cy Young

Those salaries are exactly what allowed them to make the trade. A gain, it wasn't a great trade but if he was making what he is now they wouldn't have been able to move him. They can afford it, so could the Reds, which is why the move was made. My point was that only the pre-FA contract made sense for the Sox. Thus the "I bet they wish they had THAT for a 4th or 5th starter now" comment is irrelevant. :lol: We won the WS in 2007 and got within one game in 2008, how's that going for you? So, they easily ended up with guys who were more talented than Arroyo, were not hurt on the MLB club, and didn't end up overpaying for anyone. Seems like it worked out okay to me. Yeah, it does look bad on this market. It seemed like a lot at the time too. Again, I bet the Sox have no problem not having paid him, having taken a shot at a guy with high upside like WMP, and moving a #5 starter. The point is that nobody is missing Arroyo, despite what you would like to believe. Theo isn't losing sleep over having lost him, and your smug "wouldn't he look good now" comment is meaningless to the ears of people who watched an 07 WS celebration and an 08 ALCS game 7. Those are the two seasons he would have been with the team. Now, at over 10m per year, it is all water under the bridge. He's gone, he makes too much money for his value--certainly on the Sox--and with the players I listed above, he veyr likely wouldn't have had a spot on this club anyway. But nobody cares about Arroyo. That's my point. We simply don't care. Nobody is missing him, nobody is lamenting 2006 anymore. That fire is long burned out. He is currently an overpaid mediocre pitcher on a bad team. Bye Bye Bronson... we've moved on.

Hey, I'm not ducking it!

Arroyo's salary is considerably more than this FO would be willing to pay him, his performance would be worse in the ALE, and he is easily replaceable. He will get 9.5 this year and 11 next year as part of a 2 yr/25m deal (w/ signing bonuses, etc.,). This FO can pick guys like Arroyo up off the scrap heap. In fact, if I remember correctly, that's where they got Arroyo. I seriously doubt they're missing him much. They would much rather have 6 years of cost-controlled Masterson, Buchholz or Bowden available than an overpaid back-of-the-rotation SP like Arroyo. The only way a back of the rotation guy stays on this team is if he is willing to take a discount to do so, or if he is damanged goods who isn't getting what he would if healthy. Wakefield, Smoltz and Penny are all good examples. They figured they would try to trade Arroyo for a high-upside guy like WMP. They swung and missed on that one, but Arroyo would have tested the FA waters already had he still been on this team. No way they were paying him 10m+ to pitch like he does.

Reflecting on this off-season, I can't help but feel like the Sox did very well. They improved themselves by adding pitching depth (both SP and RP) and by locking-up the core of their team moving forward in Pedroia and Youkilis. Ellsbury Pedroia Ortiz Youkilis Drew Bay Lowell Lowrie Varitek ... same basic lineup as last year, with the addition of Lowrie for a majority of the playing time (I assume). He's a good player and will be another tough out at the bottom of the order, certainly compared to most SS. Hell, he's a switch hitter too. Tek ought to provide at least what he did last year, which was still enough to win a few games for this team. Their real strength should be their pitching staff: Beckett Dice-K Lester Wakefield Penny/Smoltz/Buchholz (Lester is the 2nd best pitcher on this team, but I bet he'll be in the #3 spot.) I'm still convinced that Buchholz will be a very good pitcher in this league, it's just a matter of time. His stuff is disgusting, better than Lester's, and he uses it effectively already to make hitters swing and miss. Now he needs to learn how to pitch to contact a bit more. I'm very excited to see what he's capable of when he's 25, 26, 27 and 28. It's the bullpen, though, that has the potential to be really impressive. They've added one pitcher who is both healthy and dominant (Ramon Ramirez) and another in Saito who is elite when healthy. Adding SP depth allows them to keep Masterson in the pen, so now it looks like: Lopez Delcarmen Ramirez Okajima Masterson Saito Papelbon Ramirez and Delcarmen are strikeout pitchers, Saito and Okajima are reliable late-inning guys who don't hurt themselves with walks under pressure, Masterson can get a DP and tie up righties, and Papelbon is arguably the best closer in the game right now. Every pitcher (other than Lopez) could be a set-up man or closer on many other teams. It should be a good season to watch unfold. I think the Yankees had the best off-season but the Sox are deep without obvious holes and with MVP caliber players sprinkled throughout their lineup.

1) This is one analysis among many potential ones. This particular one doesn't have huge holes, but it isn't very far-reaching either. 2) "wading through box scores", including RPs, etc., is precisely what it would take to even approach an answer to the question. The LyfLines guy gets that this is just a fun sort-of thought experiment. The type that many do here on a daily basis. Neyer- Why look just at ERA? Why not look at WHIP, or OBP, or OPS and ERA? With Tek's 1000+ innings, for that matter, why not look too at W-L, as that is ultimately what matters most? What about the possibility that a good pitcher with a decent catcher is good, but a good pitcher with a good catcher is great? I've heard good pitchers say that Jason studies hitters better than anyone else they've played with. Pitchers spend little time shaking him off, even the better pitchers. A pitcher with command is like a finely tuned gun and Tek tells it where to fire. He implements his game plan with their stuff. Young pitchers with good stuff just have to put themselves into auto-mode and let him do the thinking. We've seen two no-hitters by guys in their early 20's who said after the game that they were just throwing what Tek told them to throw. Measuring the defensive impact of a catcher is very difficult, and Neyer admits the same himself. The catcher potentially touches every pitch and touches the ball multiple times per-out. A mistake on the simplest of chores--catching a curveball in the dirt with runners on--can result in a team's loss. Neither of these analysts look very deeply into the question in my opinion. A good way to look at this problem would be to isolate the results from the execution. Is there some way to know that the game he is calling is a better one than another catcher would call? The pitcher tries to execute what Tek calls for, but how well he does it is largely not Tek's responsibility. I still think Tek is a very solid fielder. If there is a a man coming around 3rd in the pivotal moment of the ALCS, there's nobody I have more faith in making the play to tag him out than Tek. I'm glad he'll be back.

So, Texas, we have a catcher now, but we're still offering you a really nice young pitcher + for that guy Saltalamacchia. What do you think? -Theo *I would say if the Sox land another young catcher for less than Buchholz then they have really done a nice job after the frustrating Teixeira situation.

Yep, good to have that done. Now they should continue their quest for that catcher of the future (COTF) into next season so they don't have to do this again in two years while Tek is in a retirement home.

I feel like your tone has changed, but what you're saying hasn't. You wanted a Plan B, they seemed to have one and have executed it, and here we are. Also, resigning Youk and Pedroia assured this team of continued competitiveness for the next few years. Given the way the market has turned the Yankees may have paid close to twice Burnett's value, and maybe 5m too much for Sabathia (20%). Those certainly weren't 'market prices'.

Why isn't the pertinent question for sox fans whether they are content with this team? Should fans be disappointed that the Sox didn't put Dunn on this team as a 1B who doesn't play 1B? Not sign K-Rod when they have a fine bullpen? I'm pretty damn content with this ballclub. They have a young, dynamic team and a great farm system with players who can produce at the MLB level over the next few years, including power arms like Buchholz and Bowden, and arguibly the best 1B--possibly the best batter--in the minors, in Lars Anderson. I'm not sure if they'll win this year, but they have won recently and there's reason to believe they can win again in the next few years. What's not to be happy about? :dunno:

I wasn't the one saying that experience was such an important factor. You were, so why bring up Brown if you believe it? Great. Whatever. The point is that there are internal options to fill the position if need-be. If Tek is going to retire unless he gets his way then he should just go ahead and do it. The Sox will be okay with Brown/Kottaras and Bard. If they can somehow get Salty with Bowden + then great, otherwise approach it again at midseason and next year.

You're valuing MLB experience so much over AAA experience and then in the next breath: Because of all his experience, right?

AVG doesn't measure the most important thing a hitter can do: not make outs. OBP measures how often a hitter manages to "win" a battle with a pitcher by not making an out. For most, as a first glance, OBP is much more important than AVG. AVG is a subset of OBP, saying how many times, out of those pitcher-hitter battles, the hitter managed to hit himself on rather than walk himself on. Both are victories but their cumulative value is what matters. AVG fluctuates wildly and over the past few years I haven't looked at AVG until after looking at a number of other things. Often I won't even look at AVG, to be honest.

Wouldn't Kottaras have been playing in San Deigo by now if he had stayed with them? How about other teams? Wasn't he one of the Padres top prospects when the Sox landed him? http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060905&content_id=1646668&vkey=pr_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos It says there he was ranked #2 in SD system before 2006, so wouldn't he be at least a "major league FA backup" caliber player by now? I just think the grass always seems greener on the other side of the fence, and I think it is hard to say who is major league average (or slightly worse) based on who has mde MLB and who hasn't. A number of players on the Sox would likely have been up earlier if the Sox didn't have a good team. They do, so the players sat in the reserves. Honestly folks, I think people are making too much out of the catcher position here. Tek had a 3.5 WARP1 last year. Ivan Rodriguez had a (combined) 3.4 WARP1 last year (3.3 in DET, 0.1 in NY). Ramon Hernandez (BAL)? 2.3. Pierzynski? 3.3. I'll say it again: unless the Sox give up something significant, I think they (and all of you) need to be prepared for a 3-4 WARP catcher in that spot. It's not good, it's not horrid. It is what it is and they will make up for that deficiency with strength in other areas. Tek can assure this team of a 3+ WARP, and has the potential for more. I disagree with those who think he is assured to be worse. He may be in the same ballpark (no pun intended), but that could be slightly better than last year.

No they won't. The people who do are the same ones who don't think this team can win without Teixeira and who said that Ellsbury or Crisp filling in for Damon was an obvious downgrade and would guarantee the Sox doom for years to come. Tek would be as good an option as what is available if we aren't discussing moving Buchholz or Anderson or, possibly, Bowden. Two more years of Tek won't kill this team.

I don't understand how a700hitter is suddenly knowledgable about Kottaras despite not paying attention to minor league players. He had 22 HRs against AAA pitching last year and an OPS above .800. He's not the second coming of Yogi Berra (or even Jason Varitek), but he's not terrible. It's not 22 HRs against little leaguers, or even AA pitching. It isn't against the Yankees, either, but to dismiss it completely seems shortsighted. Why was he in AAA for so long? Maybe because he's in arguably the best system (combined MiLB and MLB ) in baseball? Or because the Sox have had two very specific catchers for the past few years, one of them hand selected to catch Wakefield, the other the captain of their team. Was there a chance for Kottaras to jump in there? Some open spot I didn't know about? No, I don't think so. My point, again, isn't that Kottaras is a great player. He probably isn't. But to say he's terrible and that he isn't ready to start in the majors when you admittedly don't follow prospects seems pretty strange to me. Because Tek wasn't MLB ready until 27, Kottaras won't be ready yet? huh? Bard and Kottaras would be okay, they wouldn't be ideal but they are servicable. I think the best option would be to resign Tek to something reasonable, but if he's stubbornly demanding too much then I don't blame the Sox for going in another direction.