example1

Nice post Diony. I haven't looked at that article yet, but that's what I meant when I said "I just got the sense that Youkilis focused more on hitting his pitch rather than taking bad pitches." He was able to get into a lot of hitters' counts and hit the pitches pitchers were forced to throw. It's the same thing we've seen Manny and Ortiz do for the past few years, they hardly ever swing at a bad pitch or are truly 'fooled' by a pitch. I don't expect that to suddenly change.

It was pretty long. Apologies.

Most people seem pretty content now that the Sox have resigned Youkilis. My sense is that this will shift if (when) the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. We can all predict it and talk about it, but as soon as it happens the hats will fly off and people will freak out. (Not you Kilo, necessarily). Now, I realized I missed this douchey post from Jacksonian... Example1 doesn't get what? The s*** load of speculation you just put on the table? That would be like me saying "Jacko doesn't get it, as usual. A-Rod could die, Jeter could get hit by a bus, Yankee Stadium could collapse under the weight of the raised expectations". What a stupid comment. Sure, I get that next season could be worse than last year. Does that apply to the Yankees or Rays too, or just the Sox? Next point... Tell me Jacko, "replace what Manny was doing", what do you mean? How many wins do you think Manny actually contributed while he put up decent numbers and pulled himself out of games? This is the biggest f***ing joke of all. He's a great player, nobody denies that. But let's actually look at what he did, instead of pretending he's some Hollywood Starlet whose box office draw equates to wins on the field. WARP 2002: 8.3 2003: 8.0 2004: 7.0 2005: 6.7 2006: 5.9 2007: 4.7 2008: 4.5-partial season Manny is an extremely consistent and reliable hitter. He's not irreplaceable. The fact that he got to LA and immediately put up 1999 numbers tells me that he was slacking, started juicing (for a contract), or just got hot against weak NL pitching. It certainly tells me he wasn't injured. The point is, you should really quantify things with me Jacksonian. I'm not someone who is convinced by "Manny was so intimidating, and he was good, so take that, now he's gone, ha ha!". He had 4.7 wins above replacement in 2007. Remember when the Sox lost that year? I don't. I remember your ass sitting at home, silently observing the Sox game because you didn't have anything you could say. You had to zip it. Manny wasn't the savior that year, he was just a good player. He is replaceable. The catcher slot was a disaster last year and this team did very well. Wrong Jacko. The CF slot "regressed something fiece [sic] from June on last year" yet the player who played there offered more wins (again, quantifying this) than everyone on the Yankees not named Rivera, A-Rod or Mussina. So he would have been the 4th most valuable player on your team last year. Why aren't you talking s*** about the inherent weakness of Cano, Jeter, Joba, Wang, Matsui, or Melky? They all had worse seasons, and none-aside from Joba- were rookies. Ellsbury was largely healthy, he played the whole year and won 6.4 games above margain and, by that measure, was the Sox 5th most valuable player last year--tied with Papelbon, who also blows. Wrong Jacko. We've thrown those facts in... so what? What's your point? If last year happens again the Sox will... make the ALCS? I don't get your argument at all. You are trying to remind me of reasons to be pessimistic, but I feel reason for optimism. I'll be patient though, I'm sure you'll talk about the likelihood for the Sox to get better production from Beckett and young guys like Buchholz, Masterson, or Bowden here in a bit... Nobody who is serious about these things agrees with you. Aside from Tex there are a bunch of overpaid hacks who have holes in their game. Replace Youkilis with Dunn for 15m? Replace Bay with?? The only choice was signing Teixeira, and your team did it. Aside from that there were no obvious holes. You had to get this piece of hypocracy in here huh? Swisher, he of the 3.5 WARP is assured to be a valuable addition, but Ellsbury sucks, healthy Lowell is basically the same as benched Lowell, and Ortiz's bat is "slow". I see... Your pontification is accurate and your glass is full with regard to the Yankees, but your accuracy only works in the negative direction for your Sox projections. What does what the Yankees did have anything to do with whether the Sox can win 95 games? They may not make the playoffs, or they may win the division. They play, what, 18 games against the Yankees? So they have 140-odd games against teams without A-Rod and Teixeira? You love that quote. With that quote Theo is like Aristotle. With the decisions he makes about his team he's a drooling toddler who can't possibly hold Cashman's jockstrap. It's a funny thing huh? I bet Theo would consider signing Pedroia and Youkilis to reasonable, long term deals is part of being "younger and more dynamic". I would bet that bringing Masterson in for a full season, reintroducing Buchholz and introducing Bowden to the club equals "younger and more dynamic", as would trading for Ramirez or picking up a guy like Baldelli who is in his mid-20s. A few years ago I was very impressed at the time and patience you put into your posts about the Yankees and Sox. You seemed to know both teams. But the past few years you have been all talk about your team and no product. Your team has been disappointing despite many posts like the one above, with Jacko-the-magnificent telling us all how it went. I used to think that you were the voice of reason and Gom was the one who was reactionary and abrupt. Now I'm pretty sure that he's been right and you've been wrong. Anyone can draw the same conclusions that you did. Yes, the Yankees should be better with Teixeira and CC. Yes, Burnett is better than your average 3rd pitcher. So what? Where does that get you? The playoffs? Can you guarantee me a win in the WS? Go ahead, do it. Otherwise, we're all in the same boat so I suggest you zip it and let the events play themselves out on the field.

I'm amazed that despite spending all of their resources trying to woo Mark Teixeira to Boston, and failing badly in the process, they were able to switch tracks at any point and not only scout Smoltz in mid-December, but also come to an agreement with Youkilis a few weeks later. Maybe if they hadn't spent so much time on Teixeira they could have accomplished a lot more, like signing Pedroia to a long term deal too. Stupid front office and their mismanaged time!

Youk was arb eligable in 2009 and 2010, then would have been a FA. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html

I can't believe this thread has gone so far with such a small piece of speculative theorizing. Oh Nate Gray, we can thank you for that! I'll contribute! Dunn wouldn't be a bad addition. Even if he didn't play much he would be useful for something, if at least keeping him off some other team. It would of course give them options, including the bizarre option of moving Ellsbury to another team, putting Drew and Baldelli in CF, Dunn in LF and Bay in RF. Granted, I don't think they would get far with that plan, but if they were suddenly able to move Ellsbury perhaps they could get something back for him. He's not a superstar, but he's an offensive force with the ability to get on base despite a lot of strikeouts. Could be worse.

Nah. We already gave them Engel Beltre for Gagne. We should stop trading them our huge upside guys to get possible win now guys. I think Will Middlebrooks, who is a TX native and has some 3B in him. Honestly, I would don't think the Sox would be getting a whole heck of a lot back in a trade like that. If they were to give up any high upside fielders (Middlebrooks, Almanzar) they shouldn't have to give up Buchholz. Maybe Bowden or Masterson. You know a player who I think should garner more interest but never has: Devern Hansack. He's had roughly a K per inning, a WHIP consistently under 1.20, and he doesn't walk a lot of guys. I mean, he's nothing to get excited about, but his numbers don't appear too different from Kason Gabbard's. Yes, he's a bit older, and his upside isn't much, but who was the last impressive pitcher in Texas? Seriously, this guy can at least give some innings, which is more than I can say for some of the other shite they've thrown out there in the past, what, 15 years?

Will Rice get his number retired now? 10 years with team, retires as Red Sox, and HOF. Aren't those the criteria?

Jameson is my favorite drink in the world. On ice with a water back. Keep them coming. Welcome to the board.

Exactly. Perhaps a deal that involves Buchholz instead of Bowden, getting Salty or Ramirez back as a catcher, involves Lugo and maybe another prospect like Bard. I don't know: Buchholz Bard (someone else) Lugo for Salty or Ramirez Young Rangers get two solid young arms and lose some salary. Overall, I don't really like it but I think Young would help this team for a few years. I just don't see the Sox going there unless a guy like Teagarden came back and even then it might not be worth it.

Bay is a better player, no doubt. Dunn was just an example of a top-ish FA who is available and getting no interest because there's virtually no teams who want to spend money. Maybe Manny is a better example, or Abreu. The rest of the league doesn't seem too interested in spending 12-15m on a player. I would think the teams that might be interested and financially sound enough to do so would be teams like the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs. Maybe a few more, but there really aren't a lot of big time players for big time players. Personally, I think there's a good chance that Bay stays in Boston and that they strive to sign him to a 4 year deal.

This might be a good opening to a discussion about which 'stats' or 'metrics' one should use when evaluating a player. I tend to look at VORP and WARP. Lately I've been looking more at WARP, as it tries to include defense as part of it's measurement. WARP-wise, Young has done this: [table] Year | WARP 2001 | 2.0 2002 | 3.0 2003 | 3.7 2004 | 5.1 2005 | 7.4 2006 | 8.5 2007 | 5.9 2008 | 8.1 [/table] Now, I wouldn't have been able to predict that Young's production in 2006 and 2008 would have given his team more wins above replacement than 2004 or 2005, but apparently they do, probably because of his much better defensive rating in those seasons. [table] Year | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | FRAR | FRAA| WARP 2004 | 22 | 99 | .313 | .353 | .483 | 8 | -14 | 5.1 2005 | 24 | 91 | .331 | .385 | .513 | 6 | -17 | 7.4 2006 | 14 | 103 | .314 | .356 | .459 | 39 | 17 | 8.5 2007 | 9 | 94 | .315 | .366 | .418 | 19 | -1 | 5.9 2008 | 12 | 82 | .284 | .339 | .402 | 45 | 18 | 8.1 [/table] Does that mean defensive performance is too heavily rated? I don't think so, especially not for a SS. His fielding seems to have fluctuated from season to season, with a slight improvement over the past few years. All in all, I think calls of Young being "way overrated" are from many of the same people who would have quickly "overrated" Derek Jeter when his defense sucked and his offense was well above average (i.e., they would have underrated or not rated his defense). At the same time, it looks like without a good defensive season Young hurts his overall value and the record of recent offensive-minded SS's defensive performance in Boston hasn't been stellar (I'm thinking of Renteria and Lugo, in particular). I don't know. I don't think Young would be a bad addition to this team if the Rangers somehow paid for some of his salary or took Lugo or something. I don't think they will so that cancels the value of the deal in my mind.

Let's not be confused here: Young is a valuable player. His WARP has been good over the past 3 years. He's just not a 15m a year player when Lowrie can provide 80% at much lower cost

Yeah, and with the competitive back-and-forth we have seen for Adam Dunn we should expect him to be gone right away... Bay strikes me as a good guy who wants to play in a city that wants him. Let's hope he's reasonable enough to take a nice, fat extension and patrol LF for the rest of his prime-career for the Sox.

According to WARP Young was in the top 40 of all players last year. The list from 31: Sizemore Markakis Hamilton Young Longoria A. Gonzalez He was 104th the year before, tied with Tek and Arroyo, and directly ahead of Abreu, Pence, and Morneau. I'm not saying he's the second-coming, but apparently he isn't as awful as many would like to make him out to be. I don't understand how he ended up at 34th in 2008, but that's what the WARP #'s say.

Loved the hurdle too. I didn't think he had the legs to breakaway there, but I wasn't taking his jumping skills into account. Bad tackle.

Again, it seems like an arbitrary way of evaluating these things. Maybe it's just an arbitrary thing to evaluate. So is dripping sarcasm. Right, if it doesn't come with wins it doesn't matter. The Red Sox have won 90+ games for 7 of the last 8 seasons or so. You know the players they have and you know that they're going to give you wins. Additionally, if a player (like Burnett) has not demonstrated that he can add W's to his team, but he costs a lot of money, doesn't it make sense that its a bad deal? We will see.

Kotsay is a fine bench player. He's better and more accomplished than Gabe Kaplar ever was, and I'm pretty sure Kaplar ultimately proved to be useful to some pretty good clubs.

The total cost of all of the Sox players is roughly equal to one season of Burnett, right? I ask again, other than Teixeira, do you think the Sox should have been in on Burnett and Sabathia? I showed in another thread that Burnett is costing more than 3m per marginal win (if his history is any indicator of how he will do). That's not a good deal unless he produces well above his track record. The great thing with these signings is that they disappear after this season (most of them at least) and don't block any good talent. I understand how easy it is to compare what the Yankees have done vs. what the Sox have done, but if the Sox weren't going to get any of those guys aside from Teixeira, then why pine after them or admire them? The Yankees needed those upgrades, the Sox didn't. You might as well add "shiny new stadium" to your list of nice new toys they got over the Sox. Last year the top win-producers for the Red Sox were all internally developed players or international signings: Pedroia--9.8 Youkilis- 8.4 Lester- 7.9 Matsuzaka- 7.8 Ellsbury- 6.4 Papelbon- 6.4 Those are 5 guys who are the MAXIMUM producers for this team, 5 of them have pre-FA contracts, one of them (Matsuzaka) generates his own revenue stream by increasing Sox-awareness in Japan and raising the desire for other Japanese players to come to Boston. The Yankees get their wins through expensive talent purchasing. More and more lately the Sox get theirs internally and supplement it with purchased guys. They get to dictate the terms of these players deals, get to control them for the length of many FA contracts, and then get another draft pick if they leave to replenish the system. Don't be shocked if the Sox don't touch Papelbon with a 10-foot pole when he decides to leave the Sox. As good as he is, he IS just a closer and I think the Sox still believe a closer is only as valuable as the leverage he pitches in. That said, if Papelbon were willing to do a reasonable deal I think it makes sense because he is better than just about everyone else out there. I just don't expect that he will see a huge Sox payday as a FA. He may end up in NY.

Now, why would you not fact check these things before you make a claim. I mean, even if you're in the right ballpark, isn't it worth hitting [CTRL + N] and typing [AJ Burnett] into your browser? 10 key-strokes, a mouse click and a scroll. AJ Burnett: Born January 3rd, 1977. http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnea.01.shtml http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4153 Sounds like 32 to me.