A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds about right, but nobody was happy with Ceddanne's first full season on offense.

It's still a better offensive season than Duran '26. If 85 OPS+ is the ground floor for Arias, it's not the end of the world. That was Mayer in '25 and people were ok with it. Mayer in '26 was well under that. 

[mvp 78]

Also, when Ceddanne first came up, people were still comparing him to Mookie because he had a 1000 OPS in AAA in 50 G. He wasn't that guy. People had false hope. 

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The issue is the pay jumps more from .775 to .850 than from .700 to .775, and with tight wad ownership, we end up trying for exactly nine batters at .775. 

Maybe that's a winning formula with top 5 rotations, pens and defense to boot, but guys who are .775 batters rarely all stay there every year: you end up with 3-4 guys under .725 or even .700 on any given year. Last year, we saw way too many do just that.

The.850 guys seem to be more consistent, although I have zero evidence to back up that claim.

Good point on the $$ differential.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's still a better offensive season than Duran '26. If 85 OPS+ is the ground floor for Arias, it's not the end of the world. That was Mayer in '25 and people were ok with it. Mayer in '26 was well under that. 

85 OPS+ is not the end of the world, unless Roman gets hurt, Durbin and Cedanne stay around .700, Willson regresses from age to .800s from .900s, and we have another noodlebat season when entire months we cant hit like at all.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

85 OPS+ is not the end of the world, unless Roman gets hurt, Durbin and Cedanne stay around .700, Willson regresses from age to .800s from .900s, and we have another noodlebat season when entire months we cant hit like at all.

If all that happens, even a health Story at 104 OPS+ doesn't get the Sox to the playoffs. At that point, who really cares what Arias is hitting? At least he'd be getting MLB experience in a lost season. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, when Ceddanne first came up, people were still comparing him to Mookie because he had a 1000 OPS in AAA in 50 G. He wasn't that guy. People had false hope. 

Comparing him to Mookie, because of build, and versatility also. It was more than his bat.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Comparing him to Mookie, because of build, and versatility also. It was more than his bat.

Bzzzt...