Jarren Duran Can Be Fixed, but the Red Sox Are Running Out of Time

[N.B. Lindberg]

The Boston Red Sox are a near-lock for the second AL Wild Card spot. With just over 10 games left in the season, it’d take a whole mess of crazy for the Sox to move up or down. While it would be great to have a shot at moving up in the standings, their current situation will allow them to spend the final two weeks of the season freshening up their stalwarts, getting injury returnees back up to speed, and fixing Jarren Duran. 

Duran hasn’t quite been the worst regular in Major League Baseball, but that’s damning with faint praise. He’s still an excellent baserunner and a plus fielder, but only Ezequiel Tovar has a lower wRC+ (51) among qualified hitters than Duran’s mark of 67. Despite his disintegrated noodle of a bat, he has racked up 578 plate appearances due to injuries and, presumably, a lack of better options, but that doesn’t make him a lost cause. 

What makes Duran’s complete collapse at the plate so shocking is that he was a top-25 hitter by wRC+ only two seasons ago (132), and well above average just last season (112). While it’s safe to assume 2024 was a career year, he looked to have established himself as an above-average bat, and it’s not like all of his underlying metrics have cratered. If anything, many have improved.  

He’s swinging the bat as fast as ever. His barrel rate is almost identical to the past two seasons. He’s pulling the ball in the air more. And while his in-zone contact rate is a career-low 84%, that’s a completely fair trade-off for what should be better power. 

Duran Duran
Season	Ave Bat Speed	Barrel Rate	Pulled Air%	Z-Contact%
2024	73.6	9.3%	10.3%	87.3%
2025	74.8	9.7%	15.2%	86.9%
2026	75.1	9.6%	14.9%	84.0%

Now, you could argue that Duran didn’t need to change his approach from 2024, but given these figures, there’d be no reason to believe he had gone from one of the best hitters in baseball to almost the very worst. However, this chart doesn’t contain every last kernel of underlying data, and the one thing that has cratered for Duran is the most basic, fundamental skill of hitting—not chasing (f***ing) fastballs out of the zone. 

Duran is running a wRC+ of 67 because his out-of-zone swing rate (O-Swing%) has ballooned to 34.5%, which is largely driven by a career-high O-Swing% of 36.8% against four-seam fastballs. Throughout his career, Duran’s production has largely followed his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone, but his inability to lay off four-seam fastballs (FA), to this degree, is new. 

Season	O-Swing%	O-Swing% FA	wRC+
2021	34.70%	29.60%	48
2022	31.30%	26.60%	77
2023	29.80%	23.60%	122
2024	28%	20.80%	132
2025	31.10%	29.20%	112
2026	34.50%	36.80%	67

What makes his cratering performance against four-seamers so baffling is that it is exclusively down to swing decisions. His production when he makes contact is relatively unchanged, and he’s not whiffing a concerning amount in the zone. In fact, his zone contact rate against four-seamers is better than it was in 2024. 

Duran vs 4-Seam Fastballs
Season	Z-Contact%	FastSw%	EV90	Launch Angle	Barrel%	wRC+
2021	81.20%	NA	103.5	22.8	7.40%	67
2022	85.60%	NA	102.5	18.6	11.80%	123
2023	88.40%	26.70%	106.5	16.9	4.30%	137
2024	84.80%	30.20%	105.6	21.5	12.80%	164
2025	88.10%	41.80%	108.8	18.8	11.40%	155
2026	85.30%	44%	107.4	20.5	11%	75

It’s not groundbreaking analysis to say that swinging at fastballs out of the zone is a bad idea, but it doesn’t necessarily doom a hitter to the abyss. However, Duran’s ability against four-seamers was a load-bearing trait, and it becoming a weakness has completely collapsed his profile because it has cost him the platoon advantage. 

Unsurprisingly, Duran, a left-handed hitter, has made a career out of pulverizing right-handed pitching. His career wRC+ against righties is 114, compared to 72 against lefties. Splits like this are far from unusual, but what has happened to Duran in 2026 is. Over 410 plate appearances against righties, he has a wRC+ of 63. That’s the second-worst among qualified hitters, and it all stems from his struggles against four-seam fastballs. 

This season, 37.3% of the pitches right-handers have thrown Duran have been four-seam fastballs, right in line with his career average of 38.7%. While four-seamers generally have more neutral platoon splits, historically, Duran absolutely feasted on right-handed four-seamers. Entering 2026, Duran had a +20.6 run value against right-handed four-seam fastballs, but he has somehow managed an absolutely preposterous, incomprehensible -13.1 run value in 2026. 

The reason why Duran’s plate discipline has completely collapsed against four-seamers is a bit more of a mystery, but I think it starts with his increased desire to swing hard, lift, and pull. Over the past four seasons, as Duran’s swing speed has increased, he has hit the ball out in front a bit more. 

Season	Bat Speed	Intercept Point
2023	73.2	-2.0
2024	73.6	0.0
2025	74.7	3.1
2026	75.1	4.4

None of this is particularly surprising and should be expected. A faster bat will make contact out in front more often, and bat speed increases throughout a swing. The two moving in tandem make all the sense in the world, but getting to this point could have come at a cost. 

To sell out for swing speed and contact out in front, Duran likely has to get his operation started just a fraction of a second earlier, which means committing to pitches a tad earlier as well. The trickle-down effect is swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and in particular four-seam fastballs, which require the quickest decisions at the plate. 

The Red Sox don’t need Jarren Duran to figure it out to make the playoffs, but getting him back to basics could unlock another level of the offense. With Duran producing at an average offensive level, suddenly the Sox could field an elite outfield defense of Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Duran, while letting Roman Anthony DH. However, for that dream arrangement to work, Duran needs to actually hit again, and that starts with laying off fastballs outside of the zone.

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[mvp 78]

Let him increase his pull AIR somewhere else. It won't help him at Fenway. Wilyer is 13th in oppo % this year and has been outstanding. It's time for the Sox to just move on without him.

[Behindenemylines]

Captain Obvious: Duran strikes out way to much! His leg kick that starts his swing is way to high as it does not allow him to react to off speed stuff. any pitcher that gets strike one on him has control of the at bat.

[moonslav59]

Good stuff here, but I'm actually burnt out talking about Duran.

I'll save what I have left for the off season hot stove talk.

[scs1918]

For me, the Sox best lineup is Anthony in LF and Gasper playing DH against shitter and Cole. Assuming Anthony gets on track in two weeks.

I agree Duran is a better defender, but I feel the teams' best ABs are coming from Gasper.

I would like to know where exactly to hit Adley in this lineup. My thought is 7-9.

 

[notin]

Let’s just get Duran fixed so he can never have kids…