Red Sox Roundup, Sept 14: Tolle's Delivery, Immaculate Inning, September Push

[Talk Sox]

Here is some of the latest Red Sox analysis from around the internet. Focuses on Payton Tolle's dominant pitching, including his immaculate inning and strikeout prowess, and examines the limited impact of September performance on playoff success.

• How young Red Sox ace turns explosive energy into K's (MLB.com). Breaks down how Red Sox ace Tolle's explosive delivery creates deception, leading to high whiff rates. His extreme release point, low arm angle, and long extension result in 30% swing-and-miss on fastball and 43% on curveball, with 81 strikeouts from his heater alone.
• Payton Tolle joins exclusive club with immaculate inning as Red Sox beat Royals (Boston Herald $$$). Argues Payton Tolle joined Pedro Martinez in Red Sox history with an immaculate first inning, striking out three batters in nine pitches. Key evidence: Tolle’s 98-mph fastball, 8 of 9 four-seamers, and becoming the second Red Sox pitcher to do so.
• How much does a team’s September performance equate to winning in the playoffs? (Boston Globe $$$). Argues September performance has little correlation with playoff success, citing World Series winners' .629 Sept. winning percentage and examples like 2025 Tigers, who had sub-.500 September record but advanced past Wild Card Series.

[Hugh2]

The following Red Sox pitchers have thrown immaculate innings. 

 

Pedro Martinez

Clay Buchholz

Craig Kimbrel

Rick Porcello

Chris Sale (did it three times here)

And now Payton Tolle.

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The following Red Sox pitchers have thrown immaculate innings. 

 

Pedro Martinez

Clay Buchholz

Craig Kimbrel

Rick Porcello

Chris Sale (did it three times here)

And now Payton Tolle.

The problem is that there isn't reliable pitch data prior to 1990. There could be more? We just don't know. I also think calling it an "immaculate inning" is something that came about during my adulthood. 

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem is that there isn't reliable pitch data prior to 1990. There could be more? We just don't know. I also think calling it an "immaculate inning" is something that came about during my adulthood. 

I did know that but I do remember thinking it was weird that no one did it before Pedro. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I did know that but I do remember thinking it was weird that no one did it before Pedro. 

If you go on bref, there is a lack of detailed stats prior to 1990 or so (I was looking up 3-0 counts, k looking, etc last week). For defensive stuff, it's even later. Comparing historic WAR calculations with what a current player does seems kinda ridiculous TBH. 

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you go on bref, there is a lack of detailed stats prior to 1990 or so (I was looking up 3-0 counts, k looking, etc last week). For defensive stuff, it's even later. Comparing historic WAR calculations with what a current player does seems kinda ridiculous TBH. 

Pretty much before 2003 using War is a little fuzzy. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pretty much before 2003 using War is a little fuzzy. 

I mean, using WAR by itself isn't great to begin with. It's fun for what it is, but shouldn't be the be all end all. 

Anthrax - Be All, End All

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, using WAR by itself isn't great to begin with. It's fun for what it is, but shouldn't be the be all end all. 

Sportswriters didn't use it when they only voted Willie Mays two MVP awards. He only led the NL in WAR in 10 of 13 years. The seasons he didn't lead, he only had WARs of 8.7, 7.8 and 7.6.

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, Talk Sox said:

Here is some of the latest Red Sox analysis from around the internet. Focuses on Payton Tolle's dominant pitching, including his immaculate inning and strikeout prowess, and examines the limited impact of September performance on playoff success.

• How young Red Sox ace turns explosive energy into K's (MLB.com). Breaks down how Red Sox ace Tolle's explosive delivery creates deception, leading to high whiff rates. His extreme release point, low arm angle, and long extension result in 30% swing-and-miss on fastball and 43% on curveball, with 81 strikeouts from his heater alone.
• Payton Tolle joins exclusive club with immaculate inning as Red Sox beat Royals (Boston Herald $$$). Argues Payton Tolle joined Pedro Martinez in Red Sox history with an immaculate first inning, striking out three batters in nine pitches. Key evidence: Tolle’s 98-mph fastball, 8 of 9 four-seamers, and becoming the second Red Sox pitcher to do so.
• How much does a team’s September performance equate to winning in the playoffs? (Boston Globe $$$). Argues September performance has little correlation with playoff success, citing World Series winners' .629 Sept. winning percentage and examples like 2025 Tigers, who had sub-.500 September record but advanced past Wild Card Series.

As one of you has pointed out, the pitching gets tougher in the playoffs because you only need three good starters.  

First round Yankees are going to be tough because they have the best pitching in MLB and Judge is back (he struck out 3 times yesterday).  

On other hand, the Sox have some pretty good starters too and a pretty good bullpen.  Their ERA is tied for 3d best in MLB.  Plus position players should be pretty good with the only weakness at the middle infield.  I see something like this (in any order Tracy determines)--

Anthony LF

Rafaela RF

Abreu RF

Contreras 1b

Rutschman C

Gaspar DH

Durbin 3b

Story SS 

Kiner-Falefa 2b

 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, using WAR by itself isn't great to begin with. It's fun for what it is, but shouldn't be the be all end all. 

Anthrax - Be All, End All

Nothing is, but it's the closest we will ever get to having just one stat to look at.