Red Sox (Gray) vs Orioles (Bassitt): 09/05/26, 7:05 PM

[JoeBrady]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who has "enough rotation" already?

Once could argue the Sox have as much or better than anyone else.

Like I said, both Philly and LAD have a rotation, and are unlikely to spend $25M for Gray.  TO certainly needs an SP, but they also have competing needs.  No sense figuring out what the NYMs will do.  The Cubs have some openings and have money.  But I am not seeing a lot in the way of us re-signing him.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Well reasoned, well stated.  I would add that you kind of need to start a season with 8 viable starters.  

10-11 hasn't been enough, but I agree.

2025 looked 12-13+ deep:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts, Dobbins, Newcomb, Dobbins, Early & Tolle. That's 12! We traded Priester (13) and ended up having to add D May, Harrison and used Criswell & Bernardino in 4 starts combined. (Plus, Sandoval was supposed to return by AUG-SEPT)

2025 looked 11-12 deep but stronger:

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Sandoval, Oviedo, Early, Tolle, Bennett & Uberstine. We've started 11 games with Rivera, Moran, Gamboa, Samaniego, Miller and Paez. We did NOT trade for a starter but could have.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Like I said, both Philly and LAD have a rotation, and are unlikely to spend $25M for Gray.  TO certainly needs an SP, but they also have competing needs.  No sense figuring out what the NYMs will do.  The Cubs have some openings and have money.  But I am not seeing a lot in the way of us re-signing him.

The Dodgers might pivot to Gray, if someone (Mets?) sign Skubal away from them (doubtful.)

I could see the Yanks trying to take Gray from BOS. I could see DD trying to sign him for PHI. TOR needs help and spends bigly.

ATL, HOU, CHC or even DET could swoop in with a big offer. Shorter term deals attract more teams, and since so many teams feel they are close to being competitive, who knows who might jump out with a big offer.

I do think we can sign him, and I think he likes Boston, winning and the strong foundation returning for 2027 and 2028.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see the Yanks trying to take Gray from BOS. I could see DD trying to sign him for PHI.

Almost no way that Gray signs with the Yankees.  And the Phillies already have 5 SPs for next year.  They're out.  

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Almost no way that Gray signs with the Yankees.  And the Phillies already have 5 SPs for next year.  They're out.  

5 is never enough.

Wheeler turns 37 next May, and Painter has a 5.55 ERA/4.66 FIP, and Nola's is 4.93ERA/4.84 FIP and .815 OPS Against.

Never count DD out.

As far as I know they have close to zero depth.

Who has the weakest 5th/6th starter? The Phillies or the Sonny-less Sox?

PHI: Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo, Painter, _____

vs

BOS: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Bello, Houck/Crawford/Oviedo

 

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

5 is never enough.

...

Never count DD out.

DD isn't spending $25M+ for a #6 SP.  He needs a 3B and 2B/SS, and depending on Miller's injury.  They need an OF/1B depending on where they play Harper.  They probably need an RP or 2, but so does everyone.  I'd be stunned if they went after a #6 for $25M.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

DD isn't spending $25M+ for a #6 SP. 

Gray would not slot behind Painter at 5 or even Nola at 4. He'd be their #3.

Gray might be be our 3, 4 or 5th starter. Our top 4 are as good as PHI's top 4.

Some might slot our starters like this...

1. Crochet

2. Tolle

3. Bennett

4/5. Gray/ Suarez

fWAR 2026

3.4 Suarez

3.3 Tolle (before today)

3.0 Gray (151 IP)

2.4 Bennett (100 IP) This would pro-rate to 3.6 in 150 IP

[JoeBrady]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gray would not slot behind Painter at 5 or even Nola at 4. He'd be their #3.

It won't matter.  DD is not paying Gray $25M so that he can replace Painter in the rotation.

[vegasbob]

Sox do not know if Crochet can be a #1 again. Why was he out for a virtual. if not actual full season?

If the  rotator cuff is damaged by an arthritic shoulder structure,  Garrett may never pitch 150 innings again without more surgery.

To expect Crochet to be the number one is like expecting Crawford to be a #3

I would trust Houck more than these 2, and Tanner probably is a 3/4

Bello doesn't enter the discussion because he is mentally  under developed

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Sox do not know if Crochet can be a #1 again. Why was he out for a virtual. if not actual full season?

If the  rotator cuff is damaged by an arthritic shoulder structure,  Garrett may never pitch 150 innings again without more surgery.

To expect Crochet to be the number one is like expecting Crawford to be a #3

I would trust Houck more than these 2, and Tanner probably is a 3/4

Bello doesn't enter the discussion because he is mentally  under developed

I disagree on Crochet, but I do wonder if we should just decided on surgery.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

If the  rotator cuff is damaged by an arthritic shoulder structure,  Garrett may never pitch 150 innings again without more surgery.

I looked at a couple of articles, and they all mentioned Crochet's issue as a lat issue.  Is the lat related to rotator cuff, or could you provide an article discussing it?

[vegasbob]

Basically information on the MLB Red Sox.com site a few weeks ago transitioned from the lat issue to a rotator cuff mention .  I don’t have a specific citation  but the inference was the shoulder structure was irritating the cuff. 

Obviously none of us have any true knowledge and the MLB updates are late and weak in details.

Some others here may have seen similar or more info and can share.

The big point is that we don't know yet what  Crochet can do or if he may have a chronic issue.

My question stems from why would shoulder fatigue and a lat (soft tissue) injury take 5 months to heal .?

[moonslav59]

I found this....

 

• The Diagnosis: Crochet went on the injured list on April 29, 2026, initially for left shoulder inflammation. [1, 2]

• The Shoulder Capsule: Doctors later found a sprain in his shoulder capsule. The capsule is a group of strong tissues and ligaments that keeps the arm bone firmly in the shoulder socket. This part is very important for throwing hard overhead. [1]

• The Lat Strain: He also suffered a lat strain. The latissimus dorsi is a large back muscle that helps pull the arm down. This extra strain happened because his shoulder was weak and other muscles tried to do too much work. [1, 2]
• • Capsule sensitivity: Shoulder capsule injuries require delicate, slow rehabilitation because overexertion can threaten a pitcher's long-term career stability. [1, 2]
  • Role adjustments: Any return for the remainder of the season is strictly limited to short relief out of the bullpen rather than a starter's workload, reducing immediate stress while he rebuilds arm strength. [1]
  • As noted by users on the SoxProspects Forum, both the team and the player have emphasized extreme caution to prevent any recurrence that could negatively impact his future durability as an elite starter
  • ____________________
  • In the nearly two months since, Crochet has made little tangible progress. For a while, he was throwing plyometric weighted balls — “plyos,” in baseball shorthand — which is a prelude to throwing actual baseballs.
    
    But in early July, the Red Sox had him stop doing even that so he could focus on strengthening his shoulder, specifically the rotator cuff.
    
    The rotator cuff supports the shoulder capsule, which is what is injured, Crochet said. He has a history of capsule issues — he dealt with it in 2023, as he worked his way back to the White Sox staff after Tommy John surgery — so he and the club have been ultra-careful.
    
    “I know-ish what to expect [because of that background],” Crochet said. “But I was building up to throw one inning [as a reliever at the time], so it was a little bit different. We weren’t shooting for the playoffs, so it was a lot different.”
    
    The playoffs are the major marker on Crochet’s mental calendar because of the runway required. Once he is cleared to throw — not imminent — he’ll need a spring training-esque six weeks or so, maybe longer. If he started now, he’d be looking at early September.
    
    That is why the mind wanders to October, should the Red Sox get there.
    
    “Just kind of playing it by ear, which sucks to say on the record, but right now that’s kind of all we have to go off of,” he said.

[Duran Is The Man]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I found this....

 

• The Diagnosis: Crochet went on the injured list on April 29, 2026, initially for left shoulder inflammation. [1, 2]

• The Shoulder Capsule: Doctors later found a sprain in his shoulder capsule. The capsule is a group of strong tissues and ligaments that keeps the arm bone firmly in the shoulder socket. This part is very important for throwing hard overhead. [1]

• The Lat Strain: He also suffered a lat strain. The latissimus dorsi is a large back muscle that helps pull the arm down. This extra strain happened because his shoulder was weak and other muscles tried to do too much work. [1, 2]
• • Capsule sensitivity: Shoulder capsule injuries require delicate, slow rehabilitation because overexertion can threaten a pitcher's long-term career stability. [1, 2]
  • Role adjustments: Any return for the remainder of the season is strictly limited to short relief out of the bullpen rather than a starter's workload, reducing immediate stress while he rebuilds arm strength. [1]
  • As noted by users on the SoxProspects Forum, both the team and the player have emphasized extreme caution to prevent any recurrence that could negatively impact his future durability as an elite starter
  • ____________________
  • In the nearly two months since, Crochet has made little tangible progress. For a while, he was throwing plyometric weighted balls — “plyos,” in baseball shorthand — which is a prelude to throwing actual baseballs.
    
    But in early July, the Red Sox had him stop doing even that so he could focus on strengthening his shoulder, specifically the rotator cuff.
    
    The rotator cuff supports the shoulder capsule, which is what is injured, Crochet said. He has a history of capsule issues — he dealt with it in 2023, as he worked his way back to the White Sox staff after Tommy John surgery — so he and the club have been ultra-careful.
    
    “I know-ish what to expect [because of that background],” Crochet said. “But I was building up to throw one inning [as a reliever at the time], so it was a little bit different. We weren’t shooting for the playoffs, so it was a lot different.”
    
    The playoffs are the major marker on Crochet’s mental calendar because of the runway required. Once he is cleared to throw — not imminent — he’ll need a spring training-esque six weeks or so, maybe longer. If he started now, he’d be looking at early September.
    
    That is why the mind wanders to October, should the Red Sox get there.
    
    “Just kind of playing it by ear, which sucks to say on the record, but right now that’s kind of all we have to go off of,” he said.

like i said earlier, he'll miss all of next year and part of the 2028 as well. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

like i said earlier, he'll miss all of next year and part of the 2028 as well. 

Certainly could happen, but I feel if it was thought to be this bad, they'd have done the surgery. Not doing so gives me hope it's not as bad as it could have been.

What a waste of a year plus, if ends up getting it next spring or summer.

[Maxbialystock]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

10-11 hasn't been enough, but I agree.

2025 looked 12-13+ deep:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts, Dobbins, Newcomb, Dobbins, Early & Tolle. That's 12! We traded Priester (13) and ended up having to add D May, Harrison and used Criswell & Bernardino in 4 starts combined. (Plus, Sandoval was supposed to return by AUG-SEPT)

2025 looked 11-12 deep but stronger:

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Sandoval, Oviedo, Early, Tolle, Bennett & Uberstine. We've started 11 games with Rivera, Moran, Gamboa, Samaniego, Miller and Paez. We did NOT trade for a starter but could have.

I'm sorry to admit I think your thesis--more starters--is extravagant but right on.  😀

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly could happen, but I feel if it was thought to be this bad, they'd have done the surgery. Not doing so gives me hope it's not as bad as it could have been.

What a waste of a year plus, if ends up getting it next spring or summer.

That's about where I am.  I understand doctors can mis-diagnose, and there is probably some uncertainty in the course of treatment.  But if the best doctors in the world think it is okay to throw, they are probably right.  And it could go sideways, but I'd bet against it.  And my feeling is that any injury, outside of a clean break, could always go sideways.

But I am thinking there is virtually no chance that they thought Crochet needed TJS and decided to wait 6 months.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm sorry to admit I think your thesis--more starters--is extravagant but right on.  😀

I think after spending $21M on Buehler, having 11-12 SP'ers in the winter of 2024-25, but still needing to trade for Dustin May, convinced Brez 11-12 in the minimum needed.

He not only kept the number at 11-12, but he increased the quality of those 11-12, on paper.

'25>'26

Crochet = Crochet

Houck < Gray

Giolito < Suarez

Buehler <Early

Bello = Bello

Crawford = Crawford

Fitts < Tolle

Newcomb/Sandoval = Sandoval

Priester (traded)/Dobbins< Bennett

Criswell < Oviedo

Early/Tolle/Drohan/Fulmer/Wink> Houck/Uberstine/Burgos...

__________________

Here is a cleaner version:

Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Early, Tolle = same (We knew Houck was out, but we expected more IP from Early & Tolle)

Gray >>>>> Buehler

Suarez >> Giolito

Bennett>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fitts

Oviedo/Sandoval = Priester/Dobbins

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's about where I am.  I understand doctors can mis-diagnose, and there is probably some uncertainty in the course of treatment.  But if the best doctors in the world think it is okay to throw, they are probably right.  And it could go sideways, but I'd bet against it.  And my feeling is that any injury, outside of a clean break, could always go sideways.

But I am thinking there is virtually no chance that they thought Crochet needed TJS and decided to wait 6 months.

They might have felt the choice for surgery was 40-49%, and that would scare me.

[Maxbialystock]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Max, you are no troll.

You sometimes say things in the heat of emotions, but more often you talk others down off the irrational ledge.

Thanks.  

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm sorry to admit I think your thesis--more starters--is extravagant but right on.  😀

Part of the issue with 'more starters' is logistics.  Most BPs, I guess, has one RP that qualifies as a #6.  We currently have 7 pure RPs for next year.  So we can only have one slot dedicated to a #6.  The rest have to be minor league prospects and minor league journeymen.  No legit major league pitcher will sign to be in the minors.