Is this 2026 Red Sox team…CONTENDERS or PRETENDERS?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think Early and Suarez are innings-challenged.  If my math is correct, we can easily get another 10-11 GS from Early.  I'd like to see a few piggy-back games with Tolle-Bello and Bennett-Bello.  Bello could actually pitch twice through each rotation.  It's a heck of a long-shot to work, but it could extend all three pitchers until September.

Eduardo Rivera is a candidate to take the ball and not worry about limitations. At 6-7, 240 and 23 years old, he could be an innings eater -- a year-round guy, who's pitched in the Puerto Rican Winter League since he was 20, 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crazy game though.  In 2004 the Sox played .500 ball for about a 3 month stretch, which infamously led to Shaughnessy calling them "frauds".

5/1/04-8/1/04 (incl) 41-41

5/29/07-7/31/07  28-27 When Fred called us the biggest chokers in history

4/30/13-5/31/13  15-16

Late 2018 about .500

I think people vastly under-estimate how easy it is to 1-2 months with a .500 or worse record.  A 10-game road trip, then a 6-game homestand against tough teams, followed by a 9-game road trip.  Add in a few one-runs losses, and you can almost expect some negative (and positive) variance.  There are formulas for this which I won't bore you with (since I don't know them), but if you flipped a coin 162 times, there is a decent chance it will come out with the same result 6-7 times in a row.

Just for fun, the LAD, from 7/4-9/6, went 22-32.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That's a different argument altogether. 

Not altogether.  Seen from a more intuitive perspective:

• If you are scoring 20% more than the average team, are you not an above-average offensive team?
• If your ERA is 20% lower than the average team, are you not an above-average pitching team?
• If you have above-average hitting and pitching, but are below .500 because you are 1-8 in one-games, are you not still an above-average team?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Eduardo Rivera is a candidate to take the ball and not worry about limitations. At 6-7, 240 and 23 years old, he could be an innings eater -- a year-round guy, who's pitched in the Puerto Rican Winter League since he was 20, 

I worry about his production level, though.

He's never pitched 88 Innings and has been a RP'er for about half his games in pro ball.

I have more faith in 50 more IP from Sandoval the Rivera.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not altogether.  Seen from a more intuitive perspective:

• If you are scoring 20% more than the average team, are you not an above-average offensive team?
• If your ERA is 20% lower than the average team, are you not an above-average pitching team?
• If you have above-average hitting and pitching, but are below .500 because you are 1-8 in one-games, are you not still an above-average team?

This is an even different argument that has zero to do with checking Wild Card standings with 90 games left in the season. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

5/1/04-8/1/04 (incl) 41-41

5/29/07-7/31/07  28-27 When Fred called us the biggest chokers in history

4/30/13-5/31/13  15-16

Late 2018 about .500

I think people vastly under-estimate how easy it is to 1-2 months with a .500 or worse record.  A 10-game road trip, then a 6-game homestand against tough teams, followed by a 9-game road trip.  Add in a few one-runs losses, and you can almost expect some negative (and positive) variance.  There are formulas for this which I won't bore you with (since I don't know them), but if you flipped a coin 162 times, there is a decent chance it will come out with the same result 6-7 times in a row.

Just for fun, the LAD, from 7/4-9/6, went 22-32.

There are so many examples of teams turning it around- for the good and bad, and certainly the Sox have enough examples for it to be fresh on our minds, but it still keeps happening.

A team 14 games under .500 has to suck. Run differentials and other factors that hint that maybe the team is not that bad are shoved aside.

I wasn't aware you were had such a keen history on Fred. Very enlightening.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This is an even different argument that has zero to do with checking Wild Card standings with 90 games left in the season. 

You seriously see no difference between a team that is 14 games udner .500 and being 5-6 games back than the same record being 18 GB?

I'm okay with not thinking it's as important as I did, but to call it silly is wrong. In fact, it's silly to think it didn't matter. You poo-poo the WC3 slot even now, but this was where we hoped we might be a month ago. We thought it might not happen until September, but thinking of making the playoffs is the goal from day one.

Part of the whole argument about this year was just how bad the AL looked from day one, and how the chances of making the playoffs could be rather high even for bad or moderate teams. We went through the whole Fred argument that we'd win 90 games and miss the WC3 slot, and almost everyone laughed till we peed ourselves. The AL sucked then and sucks now. Looking at the playoff outlook is not silly, and we can see why today. We are in the WC3 slot and barely over .500. Almost everyone wants us to buy, and why is that?

Because making the playoffs is goal one and advancing int hem is goal 2. It's not silly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I worry about his production level, though.

He's never pitched 88 Innings and has been a RP'er for about half his games in pro ball.

I have more faith in 50 more IP from Sandoval the Rivera.

I understand the concept of quantifying, but we have no idea how many throws Rivera makes having a catch every day to build up his arm, except that he's an all-year competitor on the mound. 

I favor him over the guy half a decade older who's just returned from two years of rehab after blowing out his elbow. If Sandoval throws 50 innings down the stretch he may or may not be effective, since it takes about half a season to get back in a groove after returning from major surgery.

Rivera is just a monstrosity in his youth, which could mean he's soon due to snap a tendon or bull his way through batters to continue to raise his confidence as a pro.

[moonslav59]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I understand the concept of quantifying, but we have no idea how many throws Rivera makes having a catch every day to build up his arm, except that he's an all-year competitor on the mound. 

I favor him over the guy half a decade older who's just returned from two years of rehab after blowing out his elbow. If Sandoval throws 50 innings down the stretch he may or may not be effective, since it takes about half a season to get back in a groove after returning from major surgery.

Rivera is just a monstrosity in his youth, which could mean he's soon due to snap a tendon or bull his way through batters to continue to raise his confidence as a pro.

He could pitch 60 or 70, including the playoffs. I'm not convinced he's good enough, yet.

That's the primary issue to me. (With Sandoval too.)

I think we need to add a pitcher to make sure we don't lose with Rivera or Sandoval pitching an elimination game.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm okay with not thinking it's as important as I did, but to call it silly is wrong.

No, it's not.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

No, it's not.

It's silly calling it silly.

Yes, it is.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's silly calling it silly.

Yes, it is.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

This is an even different argument that has zero to do with checking Wild Card standings with 90 games left in the season. 

I thought you were commenting on the Py remark

[moonslav59]

Seeing that as bad as we were, we were just 5-6 games behind was not silly. Had we been 14 GB, this win streak would have left us about 4-5 GB the WC slot, now. The fact that we were not far behind is why we are where we are now- not just the winning stretch.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Seeing that as bad as we were, we were just 5-6 games behind was not silly. Had we been 14 GB, this win streak would have left us about 4-5 GB the WC slot, now. The fact that we were not far behind is why we are where we are now- not just the winning stretch.

And if they were still 5 GB of the WC, who cares? It's July 21. In previous years, that was within shouting distance for you and showed that they were still competitive apparently. Couldn't they just make that up in 2+ months? There are so many more games to go and so many more teams in the WC hunt. Being focused on the GB right now doesn't make sense. Just try to get to 87-88 wins by the end of the season. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And if they were still 5 GB of the WC, who cares? It's July 21. In previous years, that was within shouting distance for you and showed that they were still competitive apparently. Couldn't they just make that up in 2+ months? There are so many more games to go and so many more teams in the WC hunt. Being focused on the GB right now doesn't make sense. Just try to get to 87-88 wins by the end of the season. 

It's not silly to see 5-6 GB is better than 16 GB, no matter what time of the season.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I wasn't aware you were had such a keen history on Fred. Very enlightening.

I use to try to explain mathematical concepts to him, until I realized that he didn't care.  It was 2007, and we had gone 12-13 in our toughest stretch of the year.  16 of 25 games on the road and 18 of the 25 against teams > .500.  The NYY then had a stretch where I think 18 of their 21 games were against last place teams.

Of course the NYY picked up some games.  That's the way math worked.  But he just wanted to bash the RS.  Then we went into Chicago against a reeling WS team and took 4 straight, and then we hit up some last place teams and beat them up.  Because that's the way math worked .  And the rest of it, as they say, was history.

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I use to try to explain mathematical concepts to him, until I realized that he didn't care.  It was 2007, and we had gone 12-13 in our toughest stretch of the year.  16 of 25 games on the road and 18 of the 25 against teams > .500.  The NYY then had a stretch where I think 18 of their 21 games were against last place teams.

Of course the NYY picked up some games.  That's the way math worked.  But he just wanted to bash the RS.  Then we went into Chicago against a reeling WS team and took 4 straight, and then we hit up some last place teams and beat them up.  Because that's the way math worked .  And the rest of it, as they say, was history.

What site was that on?

[JoeBrady]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What site was that on?

Don't remember.  It had SBF on it, and think Law and Softlaw.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Don't remember.  It had SBF on it, and think Law and Softlaw.

Maybe the old Boston Globe site I think.