2026 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Sox Farm XBH Leaders

52 Brannon (346 ABs: 114K:39 BB)

52 Arias (425 ABs: 70K:51 BB)

51 Azocar (367: traded)

48 Cespedes (442: 123Ks:36 BB)

42 I Jackson (394 & 108:51)

Notables:

40 M White (347 & 101:51)

36 Gonzales (417 & 100:68)

 

[moonslav59]

OPS Against Leaders (50+ IP)

.452 B Morgan (SAL>GRE)

.527 Delzine (FCL>SAL)

.571 E Walker (FCL>SAL)

.594 Ed. Rivera (POR>WOR)

.616 Tolbert (SAL)

.635 Brown (SAL>GRE)

.636 Gilman (SAL>GRE)

.657 Paez (POR>WOR)

.672 Halligan (POR>WOR)

.677 Tyagart (FCL>SAL>GRE)

.686 Wehunt (POR>WOR

.687 Mayers (SAL>GRE)

.694 Olds (WOR)

.698 Carlson (POR>WOR)

.703 Holobetz (POR>WOR)

.709 Bastardo (WOR)

.716 Er. Rivera (POR>WOR)

.721 Futrell (SAL>GRE>POR)

.731 Song (WOR)

[moonslav59]

The farm has taken a big hit with all the graduations and recent trades, but we seem to have kept enough to provide a steady stream of promising prospects at positions we need and perhaps with the timing being just right.

#1 Arias is MLB ready now. We have a need right now, but will likely delay his addition until after the new CBA. He should be our SS, and we seem to have decent depth to cover SS, if he falters.

#2 Gonzales should be MLB ready when Duran and Contreras see their control years lapse. I'd like to see Duran off the roster this winter, but Gonzales would not be his 2027 replacement. Mid to late 2027 would be pushing it. Jones/White/Yoshida and maybe moving Mead to LF might work for a bit. KC might be our most promising Duran replacement, right now.

#3 Primera is too far away and may not stick as a Catcher. Looking to 2029 or 2030 is too speculative to go further. We should have a need at C, 1B or DH by then.

#4 Valera may not make it as a starter, but there is always a need for good pitchers. His ETA was set back by the surgery, so maybe late 2028.

#5 Godbout might surprise us and jump the ETA that is maybe mid 2028, right now. We certainly can't count on him for 2027, and right now, we have a lot of middle IF depth. It's doubtful he reaches a MLB starter point by the end of 2027. Story's deal ends, so he may be ready to fill his roster spot, but he's not Rule 5 until DEC '28- assuming Rule 5 sticks around at its current system.

#27 Mason White intrigues me. He may be a long shot and might not be ML ready until 2028, but maybe he can jump the ETA chart.

#29 Isaiah Jackson is in the same boat as White.

#38 Brannon has been my "sleeper" prospect. I know he K's too much, but he has some nice power. He could also help as a 3rd C, but will be a DH/1B type.

#6 Delzine, #7 Hull and #8 Schaffner are all late 2028 or beyond types.

#31 Ramos, #32 Silverio, #33 Brito need time.

The next group looks like long shots to be anything more than role players, utility types or low to moderate leverage RP'ers:

#9 Holobetz, #13 Wehunt and #16 Paez, #18 Bastardo and #25 Rivera could be RP'ers by 2027.

#10 Cespedes (2B/DH), #14 Gutierrez (OF), Winnay (1B/3B) Romero (2B/3B)

These guys have to prove themselves more:

#15 Phillips, #20 Brown, #21 Ziehl, #24 Monegro, #35 B Morgan, #40 Mayers

These guys just joined the system in '25 or '26 and have ETAs around 2030:

#11 Matacznski, #12 Shelar, #17 Soto, #30 LaFavor

Maybe I'm too high on the chances one of these catching prospects can make the bigs as a capable back-up:

#37 Jo Garcia (DH/1B? maybe 2027?) #26 Ge Rod (2029) #28 Heyman (2029) #52 A Guzman and far away #50 Salazar

I don't see a future for....

#23 Mullins and #34 Castro

[mvp 78]

List of MiLB FA's this offseason:

November 2026

Angel Bastardo
Osvaldo Berrios
John Brebbia
Vinny Capra
Allan Castro
Tyler Davis
Jason Delay
Patrick Halligan
Hobie Harris
Kyle Keller
Seth Martinez
Morgan McSweeney
Sam McWilliams
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Tomas Nido
Aaron Nixon
Erik Rivera
Ronald Rosario
Michael Sansone
Reidis Sena
Devin Sweet
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

List of MiLB FA's this offseason:

November 2026

Angel Bastardo
Osvaldo Berrios
John Brebbia
Vinny Capra
Allan Castro
Tyler Davis
Jason Delay
Patrick Halligan
Hobie Harris
Kyle Keller
Seth Martinez
Morgan McSweeney
Sam McWilliams
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Tomas Nido
Aaron Nixon
Erik Rivera
Ronald Rosario
Michael Sansone
Reidis Sena
Devin Sweet
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Anyone jump out as someone you'd hate to lose?

Monegro, maybe?

Bastardo did not seem to progress this year.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anyone jump out as someone you'd hate to lose?

Monegro, maybe?

Bastardo did not seem to progress this year.

Yeah, probably just Monegro and Bastardo. It wouldn't be the end of the world though. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, probably just Monegro and Bastardo. It wouldn't be the end of the world though. 

Agreed. I do worry a bit about the quality of our near ML ready pitching on the farm, but those two are longshots.

9. Holobetz (24 yrs old)

13. Wehunt (25)

16. Paez (22)

18. Bastardo (24)

21. Ziehl (23)

23. Mullins (26)

24. Monegro (23)

25. Rivera (23)

Maybe the hop is 1 or 2 out of 8 make it. The odds of 1 or 2 out of 6 lowers the odds some.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I do worry a bit about the quality of our near ML ready pitching on the farm, but those two are longshots.

9. Holobetz (24 yrs old)

13. Wehunt (25)

16. Paez (22)

18. Bastardo (24)

21. Ziehl (23)

23. Mullins (26)

24. Monegro (23)

25. Rivera (23)

Maybe the hop is 1 or 2 out of 8 make it. The odds of 1 or 2 out of 6 lowers the odds some.

Delzine may be the only real upside guy left without knowing much about LaFavor. Valera is a big question mark at this point. Wehunt is fine as a depth piece. Not much to talk about with the rest of the pitching. Seems like back to square one. 

[Hugh2]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Delzine may be the only real upside guy left without knowing much about LaFavor. Valera is a big question mark at this point. Wehunt is fine as a depth piece. Not much to talk about with the rest of the pitching. Seems like back to square one. 

Valera was the biggest upside guy before he had surgery.  Surgery success rates are pretty good nowadays, I'd suspect if he comes back and his stuff is back....his ceiling is still sky high. 

[Hugh2]

I also haven't given up on Marcus Phillips, I think he has real upside.  His problem is his control, he's probably more likely to never start in the majors than he is to reach his ceiling as a #2 starter. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Valera was the biggest upside guy before he had surgery.  Surgery success rates are pretty good nowadays, I'd suspect if he comes back and his stuff is back....his ceiling is still sky high. 

Even if success rate is high, he is on the Luis Perales track. A starting pitcher from the DSL who hasn't thrown a lot of innings because he is constantly dealing with injuries. Maybe it's just one injury and the surgery fixes everything going forward? Hard to know. No matter what, he's rule 5 eligible next December and will still be a few years away from helping BOS.

27 IP '23 (DSL)

63 IP '24

38 IP '25

9 IP '26

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I also haven't given up on Marcus Phillips, I think he has real upside.  His problem is his control, he's probably more likely to never start in the majors than he is to reach his ceiling as a #2 starter. 

Really rough year for him. Just didn't develop the way you'd like to see. Seems more and more relieverish to me. 

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Really rough year for him. Just didn't develop the way you'd like to see. Seems more and more relieverish to me. 

The reliever risk is real and very high. 

One thing I wish saw more from the Red Sox is to move guys to the bullpen when it is likely to obvious that is where their best place on a MLB team is.  Still, I think Phillips gets at least one more full year on the mound next year.  

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if success rate is high, he is on the Luis Perales track. A starting pitcher from the DSL who hasn't thrown a lot of innings because he is constantly dealing with injuries. Maybe it's just one injury and the surgery fixes everything going forward? Hard to know. No matter what, he's rule 5 eligible next December and will still be a few years away from helping BOS.

27 IP '23 (DSL)

63 IP '24

38 IP '25

9 IP '26

 

I would trade him for the next Bennet any day, but I like Valera and his potential too. 

 

FWIW Perales is still a young 23. I'm going to be interested to see what he does next year. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The reliever risk is real and very high. 

One thing I wish saw more from the Red Sox is to move guys to the bullpen when it is likely to obvious that is where their best place on a MLB team is.  Still, I think Phillips gets at least one more full year on the mound next year.  

I think they keep them in the rotation longer so that they continue to throw their entire arsenal in game. However, if Phillips was to go to the pen, he wouldn't need 4 pitches. For example, Erik Miller went from being a good reliever with 4 pitches to a great reliever with 2 pitches. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would trade him for the next Bennet any day, but I like Valera and his potential too. 

 

FWIW Perales is still a young 23. I'm going to be interested to see what he does next year. 

Perales will finally be out of options next season and his stat line after being called up this year isn't great.

7 IP, 9 ER, 3 HR, 10 H, 6 BB, 9 K, 11.57 ERA, 8.68 FIP

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Perales will finally be out of options next season and his stat line after being called up this year isn't great.

7 IP, 9 ER, 3 HR, 10 H, 6 BB, 9 K, 11.57 ERA, 8.68 FIP

9 IP, that effectively tells us nothing.  

Yeah, it stinks not having options but I could care less what 9 innings say.  He's 23 with all the talent in the world.  Nothing in life is guranteed but he's still on the learning curve. He could just as easily be an all star next year. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they keep them in the rotation longer so that they continue to throw their entire arsenal in game. However, if Phillips was to go to the pen, he wouldn't need 4 pitches. For example, Erik Miller went from being a good reliever with 4 pitches to a great reliever with 2 pitches. 

That seems pretty standard, to develop all highly regarded prospects as starters, even the ones you think will end up in the bullpen. It makes sense, giving them the reps to work on their pitches.  But at some point you have to transition bullpen guys to the bullpen, and I'm just not sure waiting for a guy to fail at the MLB level and being out of options is the way to go. 

[mvp 78]

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That seems pretty standard, to develop all highly regarded prospects as starters, even the ones you think will end up in the bullpen. It makes sense, giving them the reps to work on their pitches.  But at some point you have to transition bullpen guys to the bullpen, and I'm just not sure waiting for a guy to fail at the MLB level and being out of options is the way to go. 

I agree. I think they should recognize if they are relievers or starters when they are in AAA and transition them then. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

9 IP, that effectively tells us nothing.  

Yeah, it stinks not having options but I could care less what 9 innings say.  He's 23 with all the talent in the world.  Nothing in life is guranteed but he's still on the learning curve. He could just as easily be an all star next year. 

It tells us that a move to the pen didn't let his stuff play up right away. Maybe he'll get better over time, but he's not really a high caliber arm today. There was talk about him being pushed onto the Sox playoff roster last year. Clearly, that would have been a bad idea. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It tells us that a move to the pen didn't let his stuff play up right away. Maybe he'll get better over time, but he's not really a high caliber arm today. There was talk about him being pushed onto the Sox playoff roster last year. Clearly, that would have been a bad idea. 

I disagree, I'm not taking anything away from 9 innings pitched from a rookie pitcher. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I disagree, I'm not taking anything away from 9 innings pitched from a rookie pitcher. 

He could be a high caliber arm next season and going forward. I'm just saying that it's not working out now and would have been terrible last postseason. Sox definitely got the better end of the deal for 2026. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

9 IP, that effectively tells us nothing.  

Yeah, it stinks not having options but I could care less what 9 innings say.  He's 23 with all the talent in the world.  Nothing in life is guranteed but he's still on the learning curve. He could just as easily be an all star next year. 

He is too little.  If I can beat you up in a fight, get off the 40 man roster.

[drewski6]

Valera is like 6-3, 210.  Perales is like 5-11, 155 lbs.  His delivery is max effort because it needs to be.

[drewski6]

The little guys like Tim Lincecum usually dont have long careers because they have to go max effort.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The little guys like Tim Lincecum usually dont have long careers because they have to go max effort.

I'd take 8 full seasons of Lincecum out of any of our prospects. 

[mvp 78]

Mark Prior at 6'5" had less service time.

Kerry Wood at 6'5" had to be moved to the pen in his 20's because of injuries. 

Frame doesn't make the pitcher. 

Pedro didn't get beyond his mid 30's, but not many pitchers do. 

Sonny Gray is having a renaissance after age 35. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd take 8 full seasons of Lincecum out of any of our prospects. 

100%, Id take 3 yeas of Lincecum over any of our pitching prospects. My point is not that you have to be over 6'2 to be effective.  My point is that the size difference is a big variable when discussing Valera's vs Perales' injuy risk.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Mark Prior at 6'5" had less service time.

Kerry Wood at 6'5" had to be moved to the pen in his 20's because of injuries. 

Frame doesn't make the pitcher. 

Pedro didn't get beyond his mid 30's, but not many pitchers do. 

Sonny Gray is having a renaissance after age 35. 

Frame isnt the be all end all, and not even when you factor in the extension advantages that usually come with it.  But Tolle being 6'6 is certainly helping him.  Schlittler is 6'6 as well.  Misiorowski is 6'7.  Sale is 6'6.  Christopher Sanchez is 6'7.  And RJ's size was an asset as well. Nothing is 100% but you cant teach frame or extension and both are very helpful when you have them.

Im not saying that anything is a guarantee.  Yamamoto is small and effective and Dylan Cease is below average size (for a pitcher).