Article: Hunter Greene, Rumored Red Sox Trade Target, Will Cost an Arm, A Leg, and More

[Krusty]

And as a Reds fan, I’m asking for Duran, Garcia and either Tolle, Early or Clarke.  But it comes down to what Nick Krall and Brad Meador want if they decide to shop Greene.

Would a Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran straight up work for Red Sox fans?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

250 IP isnt a lot of someone is claiming you’re a top ten SP in all of MLB.

i go Duran and Clarke as my biggest offer.

250 is not a little either, and it was more than Crochet had in his previous 4 seasons.

Duran and Clarke seems close.

Duran and PASSWORD, too.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

250 is not a little either, and it was more than Crochet had in his previous 4 seasons.

Duran and Clarke seems close.

Duran and PASSWORD, too.

Was Crochet one of the 10 best starters in MLB when the Sox acquired him?

[notin]

2 hours ago, Krusty said:

And as a Reds fan, I’m asking for Duran, Garcia and either Tolle, Early or Clarke.  But it comes down to what Nick Krall and Brad Meador want if they decide to shop Greene.

Would a Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran straight up work for Red Sox fans?

Obviously only Craig Breslow can answer that.  He still isn’t responding to my texts, although I should point out it’s very possible I guessed his number incorrectly.

Lodolo for Duran isn’t a bad idea IMO. And I would think  Cincy would prefer to deal Lodolo over Greene.  You made the postseason last year; do you really need to trade your ace to build on that? 
 

Personally I think Cincy is more likely to move Singer if they move any SP from last year’s rotation…

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

Was Crochet one of the 10 best starters in MLB when the Sox acquired him?

Neither he was not nor Greene is now, unless you look at who might have the skills to be top 10.

I've already answered this question.

When Green pitches, which is as much or more than all but 72 SP'ers since 2024, he's looked like a top 10 pitcher by some stats and metrics. I would not call him top 10, right now, but he can be one, if he can go 30 starts.

I felt pretty much the same as I did with Crochet, and I felt the package was steep but fair.

I agree that a package of Duran, Clarke and 2 lower level prospects  might be enough.

I'd go as high as...

Duran ($8M), Garcia & Sandlin

or

Abreu, Campbell ($7.5M AAV) & Sandlin

I see Teel & Monty as better prospects than Garcia (maybe not Campbell) and Meidroth as better than Sandlin. How much is Duran or Abreu worth? (I don't agree with BTV on Duran.)

I'd be fine with Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo.

 

[notin]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Neither he was not nor Greene is now, unless you look at who might have the skills to be top 10.

I've already answered this question.

When Green pitches, which is as much or more than all but 72 SP'ers since 2024, he's looked like a top 10 pitcher by some stats and metrics. I would not call him top 10, right now, but he can be one, if he can go 30 starts.

I felt pretty much the same as I did with Crochet, and I felt the package was steep but fair.

I agree that a package of Duran, Clarke and 2 lower level prospects  might be enough.

I'd go as high as...

Duran ($8M), Garcia & Sandlin

or

Abreu, Campbell ($7.5M AAV) & Sandlin

I see Teel & Monty as better prospects than Garcia (maybe not Campbell) and Meidroth as better than Sandlin. How much is Duran or Abreu worth? (I don't agree with BTV on Duran.)

I'd be fine with Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo.

 

I’m not getting two worked up over the inclusion of Meidroth and Wikelman in the Crochet package.  Does anyone really think Chicago drew a hard line in the sand and said “look, the two top 50 prospects are nice, but we’re not dealing Crochet without also getting a high end utility infielder and a fringey relief pitcher that might get released within 3 years.  And I am not budging on these demands.”

It was probably more likely:

Getz: It’s a good start but we could use a little more, even if they’re not exciting pieces.

Breslow: How about some of our borderline guys that we can’t squeeze in to the 40 man roster?

Getz:  Why not?  We have room.  Our 40 man roster is so weak that we added the bat boy to it last year.  

[notin]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Neither he was not nor Greene is now, unless you look at who might have the skills to be top 10.

I've already answered this question.

When Green pitches, which is as much or more than all but 72 SP'ers since 2024, he's looked like a top 10 pitcher by some stats and metrics. I would not call him top 10, right now, but he can be one, if he can go 30 starts.

I felt pretty much the same as I did with Crochet, and I felt the package was steep but fair.

I agree that a package of Duran, Clarke and 2 lower level prospects  might be enough.

I'd go as high as...

Duran ($8M), Garcia & Sandlin

or

Abreu, Campbell ($7.5M AAV) & Sandlin

I see Teel & Monty as better prospects than Garcia (maybe not Campbell) and Meidroth as better than Sandlin. How much is Duran or Abreu worth? (I don't agree with BTV on Duran.)

I'd be fine with Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo.

 

Duran plus nothing for Lodolo, IMO.

I said I would give Duran and Clarke for Greene.  If BTV is correct and Password has similar value to Clarke, it should make sense that I’m not opposed to that substitution.  Both? Now we are getting a bit pricey.  It’s worth thinking about.  Not like Password has a clear path to starting in Boston…

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not getting two worked up over the inclusion of Meidroth and Wikelman in the Crochet package.  Does anyone really think Chicago drew a hard line in the sand and said “look, the two top 50 prospects are nice, but we’re not dealing Crochet without also getting a high end utility infielder and a fringey relief pitcher that might get released within 3 years.  And I am not budging on these demands.”

It was probably more likely:

Getz: It’s a good start but we could use a little more, even if they’re not exciting pieces.

Breslow: How about some of our borderline guys that we can’t squeeze in to the 40 man roster?

Getz:  Why not?  We have room.  Our 40 man roster is so weak that we added the bat boy to it last year.  

The CWS had room for more than a 2 for 1 deal. Cincy probably doesn't, but they might insist on someone like Clarke, Valera or Fajardo, who do not need to be on the 40.

Cincy need offense, so I'm thinking Duran & Garcia or Abreu & Campbell. If they insist on adding one of those young pitchers, I might say "Take Sandlin or leave it."

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran plus nothing for Lodolo, IMO.

I said I would give Duran and Clarke for Greene.  If BTV is correct and Password has similar value to Clarke, it should make sense that I’m not opposed to that substitution.  Both? Now we are getting a bit pricey.  It’s worth thinking about.  Not like Password has a clear path to starting in Boston…

I'm not high on Sandlin, so I'd add him for Lodolo, if they insisted. Duran straight up should be enough, agreed.

On Greene, I see the cost of FA SP'ers with less promise than Greene, as most are 30 or older, as being too high, so someone like Greene deserves an overpay.

I get the injury risk, and maybe he's due for a full season loss, but this guy can pitch very well.

I see an offer like Duran, Garcia and Sandlin as worthy of the risk. You mentioned how Meidroth was not a make-or-break part of the Crochet deal: I see Sandlin as less than Meidroth value.... maybe close to Wikelman value. I might even add Mullins or Cespedes.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not high on Sandlin, so I'd add him for Lodolo, if they insisted. Duran straight up should be enough, agreed.

On Greene, I see the cost of FA SP'ers with less promise than Greene, as most are 30 or older, as being too high, so someone like Greene deserves an overpay.

I get the injury risk, and maybe he's due for a full season loss, but this guy can pitch very well.

I see an offer like Duran, Garcia and Sandlin as worthy of the risk. You mentioned how Meidroth was not a make-or-break part of the Crochet deal: I see Sandlin as less than Meidroth value.... maybe close to Wikelman value. I might even add Mullins or Cespedes.

How do you see an offer for Greene if you were on the Cincinnati side. Would Duran, Garcia, and Sandlin be enough?

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

How do you see an offer for Greene if you were on the Cincinnati side. Would Duran, Garcia, and Sandlin be enough?

Probably not, but they really need offense, and 3 years of Duran + 5 years of Garcia is a lot of O. I am very high on Jh Garcia- maybe more than others, and Duran is highly valued by BTV, so between those two points, I think the offer is close to even.

I'd add 2- maybe 3 from Sandlin, Mullins, Cespedes, castro and Bleis, as well.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably not, but they really need offense, and 3 years of Duran + 5 years of Garcia is a lot of O. I am very high on Jh Garcia- maybe more than others, and Duran is highly valued by BTV, so between those two points, I think the offer is close to even.

I'd add 2- maybe 3 from Sandlin, Mullins, Cespedes, castro and Bleis, as well.

I’m not so sure that other teams value Duran, and Abreu quite as highly as some do on here, or even Garcia for that matter.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How do you see an offer for Greene if you were on the Cincinnati side. Would Duran, Garcia, and Sandlin be enough?

Oh they could easily overvalue him. 
 

Looking at it neutrally, Duran has been worth 10.3 fWAR in the past 2 years, while Greene was worth 6.8 fWAR.  Over the next 3 years, Duran could be worth 10-15 fWAR and might cost $30mill in salary.

Greene over the next 4 years might be worth 12-15 fWAR, assuming he maintains his 150 IP, which is not a given.  For roughly the same output as Duran, Greene would be paid $40mill.  I think BTV is projecting both like this, which is why they are equal in a straight up trade.  If Boston adds in one ranked prospect (Garcia or Clarke), it should give the benefit to Cincinnati. 
 

Of course if they overvalue Greene, they could easily hold out for more…

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Oh they could easily overvalue him. 
 

Looking at it neutrally, Duran has been worth 10.3 fWAR in the past 2 years, while Greene was worth 6.8 fWAR.  Over the next 3 years, Duran could be worth 15 fWAR and might cost $30mill in salary.

Greene over the next 4 years might be worth 16 fWAR, assuming he maintains his 150 IP, which is not a given.  For roughly the same output as Duran, Greene would be paid $40mill.  I think BTV is projecting both like this, which is why they are equal in a straight up trade.  If Boston adds in one ranked prospect (Garcia or Clarke), it should give the benefit to Cincinnati. 
 

Of course if they overvalue Greene, they could easily hold out for more…

I think starting pitching are mostly overvalued.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think starting pitching are mostly overvalued.

Very possible.  Especially the younger ones. 
 

The Sox do buy into that on occasion (ex: Crochet), so Greene is a possibility.  But they would be silly to go overboard to the level of some of the packages on this thread…

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Very possible.  Especially the younger ones. 
 

The Sox do buy into that on occasion (ex: Crochet), so Greene is a possibility.  But they would be silly to go overboard to the level of some of the packages on this thread…

That I agree with.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I’m not so sure that other teams value Duran, and Abreu quite as highly as some do on here, or even Garcia for that matter.

That's always a key factor.

BTV has Duran valued more highly than most of us, do, but we need the right GM to value him just highly enough.

Many felt Teel and Monty was too high a price for Crochet, while others felt they'd insist on Anthony, Mayer or Campbell plus one of them.

We know very little.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's always a key factor.

BTV has Duran valued more highly than most of us, do, but we need the right GM to value him just highly enough.

Many felt Teel and Monty was too high a price for Crochet, while others felt they'd insist on Anthony, Mayer or Campbell plus one of them.

We know very little.

One thing we’ve found out the last two years is that Brez isn’t afraid to make a deal at least in the offseason. Trade deadline line is another story.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

One thing we’ve found out the last two years is that Brez isn’t afraid to make a deal at least in the offseason. Trade deadline line is another story.

It's really a decent strategy, IMO, as the return packages are usually cheaper over the winter. He made a lot of winter additions, and for the first time in a while, most worked out. 

That's not to say he's off the hook for not doing more at the deadline, but the team was much better this year and looks pretty solid, going forward. IMO, we are down to 3 major needs. I'd venture to say most top 10-12 teams have more winter needs than 3.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's really a decent strategy, IMO, as the return packages are usually cheaper over the winter. He made a lot of winter additions, and for the first time in a while, most worked out. 

That's not to say he's off the hook for not doing more at the deadline, but the team was much better this year and looks pretty solid, going forward. IMO, we are down to 3 major needs. I'd venture to say most top 10-12 teams have more winter needs than 3.

As always the pitching has to be upgraded. To me the team was better this year, because the starting pitching was better with Crochet, Bello, and Gio pitching well over an extended period of time. Also having Whit, and Chapman anchoring the backend of the BP. Gio is now a question mark, and you can’t count on Chapman having another career year next year.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

As always the pitching has to be upgraded. To me the team was better this year, because the starting pitching was better with Crochet, Bello, and Gio pitching well over an extended period of time. Also having Whit, and Chapman anchoring the backend of the BP. Gio is now a question mark, and you can’t count on Chapman having another career year next year.

We'll need someone like Slaten to maybe make up for the expected drop by Chapman.

We also have a lot of young pitchers and returning pitcher to help take up some slack, but I hate counting on injured players regaining their old form. We will also surely have new injuries or continuing old ones.

I think our outlook is better than many teams, as most of our most important players are approaching prime and not on the other side on the way down. It's mostly speculative value, but we have a lot of it, while other teams have more needs to fill and less speculative value depth.

Just my opinion.

[drewski6]

On 10/19/2025 at 2:46 PM, moonslav59 said:

Agree on no Rafaela.

I'm not sure how highly Cincy or anyone values Campbell, but he might be more highly values than Garcia.

I'm not sure Cincy wants a pitcher back, but the guys you listed would certainly be of value.

For Greene, I might offer:

Abreu or Duran

Campbell or Garcia

Harrison, Dobbins or Perales. (Valera or Clarke?)

Not even close.

[drewski6]

7 hours ago, Krusty said:

And as a Reds fan, I’m asking for Duran, Garcia and either Tolle, Early or Clarke.  But it comes down to what Nick Krall and Brad Meador want if they decide to shop Greene.

Would a Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran straight up work for Red Sox fans?

Lodolo for Darren, straight up?  I probs pull trigger.

Duran, Garcia and Clarke for Greene all day.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Obviously only Craig Breslow can answer that.  He still isn’t responding to my texts, although I should point out it’s very possible I guessed his number incorrectly.

Lodolo for Duran isn’t a bad idea IMO. And I would think  Cincy would prefer to deal Lodolo over Greene.  You made the postseason last year; do you really need to trade your ace to build on that? 
 

Personally I think Cincy is more likely to move Singer if they move any SP from last year’s rotation…

If Im cincy , Im not really interested in flipping Greene or Lodolo.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not even close.

I'm saying 3 players- one from each group listed. Close to your proposed offer.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm saying 3 players- one from each group listed. Close to your proposed offer.

My proposed offer for what and who? Why does my proposed offer matter?

Ask me, you want Greene, you gotta give Roman.  Cincy asks for something that doesnt include Roman, Im prob saying yes. Greenes like really really good.

[drewski6]

I was responding to the cincy fans offer which was greene for (I skimmed and I didnt see Roman or Crochet), so its a yes for me.

[cp176]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Very possible.  Especially the younger ones. 
 

The Sox do buy into that on occasion (ex: Crochet), so Greene is a possibility.  But they would be silly to go overboard to the level of some of the packages on this thread…

I would be very hesitant to give up and give away any potential home grown starting pitching at this point.  

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm saying 3 players- one from each group listed. Close to your proposed offer.

I could be wrong but I think that cincy laughs at duran, garcia and a pitching prospect that is not early/tolle.

Could be wrong.  But this hunter greene talk is like from a sports illustrated article. Its not from the actual reds FO.

Im with Notin, I think Greene talk rivals Skenes talk. I dont see it happening. But hey, Reds wanna offer him for Duran, Garcia and Clarke, Im not gonna talk em out of it.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If Im cincy , Im not really interested in flipping Greene or Lodolo.

They need offense, but they don't want to spend on FAs for offense.