Sox needs for 2026 step forward

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I’m operating on the (safe?) assumption thr Sox won’t sign multiple players to nine figure deals.  
 

The disadvantage to signing Alonso is if you use free agency to fill the 2b/3b void, the non-Bregman options are unexciting (unless you’re high on Suarez, which I am not).  The disadvantage to signing Bregman is he is not the hitter Alonso is, but the second tier 1b options are at least moderately interesting. 
 

Which is the better solution - Bregman and Hoskins (or Bell)?  Or Alonso and Gleyber Torres?  And if Torres is too pricey (possible), then who? Luis Rengifo?
 

 

Plan A: Alonso and Suarez (who will likely get 2-3 years only.) Trade for a SP2.

Polanco turns 33 next summer. If he'd take 3 years, maybe he could be plan A.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Polanco has a cheap team option.  Hes not going to see free agency for another year…

Cots says...

26:$8M mutual option ($750,000 buyout)

[notin]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, I'm not advocating for just signing guys to sign guys. They need to target guys that fit their needs via FA and trades. With the value of 1b being relatively low, it could be easier to just go out and acquire a 1b via trade. Or just sign Hoskins to a cheaper deal than Alonso.

Sox needs: 1b, 2b, 3b, SP

1b Hoskins (1 year deal)

2b Mayer plus cheap 2b/SS acquisition to backup

3b Suarez (multi year deal, move to 1b in '27) 

SP Cease (looking for short term high AAV per reports) or Gallen

 

I’m not as high on Suarez, who spent most of the 2020s as a fairly mediocre hitter with weak defense.

I think one of Bregman or Alonso should be in play.  At 5 years, Alonso seems preferable.  But the Sox clearly like Bregman. I mean, they didn’t give him a $40mill AAV out of spite.

If they sign Bregman, I could see Hoskins or Bell.  You like Hoskins’ swing for Fenway.  I like Bell’s StatCast numbers.  Pros and cons to both.  Well, hopefully there are pros.

Cease makes a ton of sense if he wants short years/high AAV.  The Sox seem to prefer that over longer contracts.

At some point, they are going to break up the OF logjam, most likely by trading either Duran or Abreu.  I think at least one of the listed needs gets filled this way rather than via free agency…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cots says...

26:$8M mutual option ($750,000 buyout)

And zero chance Seattle doesn’t pick that up…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

And zero chance Seattle doesn’t pick that up…

I thought "mutual" meant Polanco could say No (and would do so.)

It's only if he says Yes and they say no, that he gets the $750K buyout.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not as high on Suarez, who spent most of the 2020s as a fairly mediocre hitter with weak defense.

I think one of Bregman or Alonso should be in play.  At 5 years, Alonso seems preferable.  But the Sox clearly like Bregman. I mean, they didn’t give him a $40mill AAV out of spite.

If they sign Bregman, I could see Hoskins or Bell.  You like Hoskins’ swing for Fenway.  I like Bell’s StatCast numbers.  Pros and cons to both.  Well, hopefully there are pros.

Cease makes a ton of sense if he wants short years/high AAV.  The Sox seem to prefer that over longer contracts.

At some point, they are going to break up the OF logjam, most likely by trading either Duran or Abreu.  I think at least one of the listed needs gets filled this way rather than via free agency…

I think Suarez would do well at Fenway. I'm not entirely sold on him, but he's an option if they can't bring back Bregman on a 3 year deal.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not as high on Suarez, who spent most of the 2020s as a fairly mediocre hitter with weak defense.

I think one of Bregman or Alonso should be in play.  At 5 years, Alonso seems preferable.  But the Sox clearly like Bregman. I mean, they didn’t give him a $40mill AAV out of spite.

If they sign Bregman, I could see Hoskins or Bell.  You like Hoskins’ swing for Fenway.  I like Bell’s StatCast numbers.  Pros and cons to both.  Well, hopefully there are pros.

Cease makes a ton of sense if he wants short years/high AAV.  The Sox seem to prefer that over longer contracts.

At some point, they are going to break up the OF logjam, most likely by trading either Duran or Abreu.  I think at least one of the listed needs gets filled this way rather than via free agency…

I may sound like I'm super high on Suarez, but I'd prefer several others.

I mention him all the time, because I know how much JH likes shorter deals, and the guy is like 84 years old.

[drewski6]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

Isn’t that what this sight is for?  It’s not like Breslow is reading my posts or and thinking “hmmm..  I hadn’t thought of that.  But it’s crazy enough that it just might work.”

How many players in this market would you go 9 figures on?  With contracts they would sign, of course.   Because not one of the available FAs  is putting his name on a deal for $1000 a year for 100,000 years…

9 figures is the new 8 figures, current free-agents, prob about 10 are worthy of 9 figure deals. Thats not because this is some rockin class, its because 100m doesnt go as far as it use to. Its not a watermark for elite talent. 500m is.

I dont think that you are under some delusion that what your suggestions will get picked up. I think you are smart, a good baseball mind, and you like puzzles.

So when we need a middle of the order bat, and theres a few sitting there - you may think yeah, we could go the simple route....OR.....If we do x,y,z and this player should play up here because, and heres what i see that many are overlooking

My first year in the business world, they told me that my intelligence got in my way. And they were right, because as an accountant (then, not anymore) I would always overcomplicate because my mind was so focused on seeing things that others couldnt (and i did, often)....but when something was easy, i sometimes overcomplicated it.

The things i accuse you of doing, i do myself.  Because we're both smart, sometimes the easy answer is just too easy for us. WHen i play mlb the show on xbox in franchise mode, i go way out of my way to make it harder for myself. Setting rules like im not allowed to ever trade a guy i signed in free agency (becuase it would make the roster building too easy). Im not allowed to play more than 20 games myself in a season (because ill win with any roster if i play against the cpu and i wanna test my team building). Im not allowed to sign more than 1 expensive free agent every few years.

So I force myself to get creative because i know i can. And I know you can.  But push comes to shove, i want schwarber and really nobody else hitting 2nd or 3rd next year. Becasue hes better. Hes a better hitter than sean murphy, devers, alonso

[drewski6]

And I think that because pete alonse has 1b next to his name and schwarber has DH that this will dampen schwarbers market.

Id offer scwharber 100m/2  even becasue hes a significantly better hitter than alonso, devers, bregman. So sure as heck id offer him 100m/3 or even (gasp) 130/4.

Unless its 100m/1, i give schwarber 100m+

[drewski6]

id give schwarber 100m/2 or 135m/3 or 160/4, his choice

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

  But push comes to shove, i want schwarber and really nobody else hitting 2nd or 3rd next year. Becasue hes better. Hes a better hitter than sean murphy, devers, alonso

Fair enough, and when you figure Alonso is so awful on D, the DH label for Schwarber should not deter us from making him plan A or "Dream A," if you believe JH won't go that large and long. One good thing is that the DH label might keep the bidding down a smidgeon.

So, if Schwarber is plan A and Alonso plan B, who is your plan C and D?

Would we need Plan C and E to make up for missing out on A and B?

 

[drewski6]

i wouldnt go 200/4, what am i crazy?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

id give schwarber 100m/2 or 135m/3 or 160/4, his choice

I would too, but if we are not going over the tax line, that would be our only $$$ addition. We might even have to trade Duran's $8M for a cheaper pitcher to get us under.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

i wouldnt go 200/4, what am i crazy?

Start with a 1:

$199M/4

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Fair enough, and when you figure Alonso is so awful on D, the DH label for Schwarber should not deter us from making him plan A or "Dream A," if you believe JH won't go that large and long. One good thing is that the DH label might keep the bidding down a smidgeon.

So, if Schwarber is plan A and Alonso plan B, who is your plan C and D?

Would we need Plan C and E to make up for missing out on A and B?

 

Yes, thank you for seeing me. I feel seen

I am the guy screaming that is freaking dumb to call devers a bad contract when hes just a DH when soto, alonso, casas are no better defensively, its just that their managers play them in the field.  I think the market is wrong in the fact that it punishes DHs too much. To me there isnt much difference between a lousy defender who takes the field and a DH. Most DHs could get by at a position if needed. Even Yordan Alvarez.

So I think that there will be more than a little gap between alonso's contract and schwarbers despite the fact that schwarber is an elite hitter and alonso is a very good but not elite hitter.

I like to try to take advantage of what i perceive to be market inefficiencies.

TY for understand me that I think the market is too tough on DHs.  

Schwarber 1, alonso 2, bregman 3, suarez 4...Option 5 is well, shoot guess we gotta try to build an elite pitching staff cuz we whiffed on all the available difference making bats

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Start with a 1:

$199M/4

Touche

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

id give schwarber 100m/2 or 135m/3 or 160/4, his choice

These are all too high for me. 

[drewski6]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not as high on Suarez, who spent most of the 2020s as a fairly mediocre hitter with weak defense.

I think one of Bregman or Alonso should be in play.  At 5 years, Alonso seems preferable.  But the Sox clearly like Bregman. I mean, they didn’t give him a $40mill AAV out of spite.

If they sign Bregman, I could see Hoskins or Bell.  You like Hoskins’ swing for Fenway.  I like Bell’s StatCast numbers.  Pros and cons to both.  Well, hopefully there are pros.

Cease makes a ton of sense if he wants short years/high AAV.  The Sox seem to prefer that over longer contracts.

At some point, they are going to break up the OF logjam, most likely by trading either Duran or Abreu.  I think at least one of the listed needs gets filled this way rather than via free agency…

Bregman 175/5, schwarber 100m/2

275m total. vlad just got 500m commitment, its unfair to ask for 275?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, thank you for seeing me. I feel seen

I am the guy screaming that is freaking dumb to call devers a bad contract when hes just a DH when soto, alonso, casas are no better defensively, its just that their managers play them in the field.  I think the market is wrong in the fact that it punishes DHs too much. To me there isnt much difference between a lousy defender who takes the field and a DH. Most DHs could get by at a position if needed. Even Yordan Alvarez.

So I think that there will be more than a little gap between alonso's contract and schwarbers despite the fact that schwarber is an elite hitter and alonso is a very good but not elite hitter.

I like to try to take advantage of what i perceive to be market inefficiencies.

TY for understand me that I think the market is too tough on DHs.  

Schwarber 1, alonso 2, bregman 3, suarez 4...Option 5 is well, shoot guess we gotta try to build an elite pitching staff cuz we whiffed on all the available difference making bats

I'd put Polanco 5th. If KMarte is available...

I'd be okay with Bregman & Suarez or Suarez and Polanco, but I'd prefer Schwarber and scraps like Hoskins, Rengifo or even Bell as the #2.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Bregman 175/5, schwarber 100m/2

275m total. vlad just got 500m commitment, its unfair to ask for 275?

If you are the AAV accountant, yes.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman 175/5, schwarber 100m/2

275m total. vlad just got 500m commitment, its unfair to ask for 275?

Vlad costs 35M next year.

Schwarbgman costs 85M. 

Not equivalent. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If you are the AAV accountant, yes.

We seem to be more shy about years than aav, but understood theres an obvious aav gap between vladdy jr vs alonso + bregman

[drewski6]

58 minutes ago, notin said:

And zero chance Seattle doesn’t pick that up…

Thats not what a mutual option is. Hes already a free agent.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Vlad costs 35M next year.

Schwarbgman costs 85M. 

Not equivalent. 

touche but dont care.

This is like nfl silly or nhl silly when you jsut go super long to make the aav look better. Vlads contract goes out 15 years the real aav is the 500m/10, becaues you cant project him doing much years 11 on. Theres value in drwing it out sure.

But you have to go super high aav to get schwarber for 2 years cuz hes a btter hitter (and player overall) than soto.

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

touche but dont care.

This is like nfl silly or nhl silly when you jsut go super long to make the aav look better. Vlads contract goes out 15 years the real aav is the 500m/10, becaues you cant project him doing much years 11 on. Theres value in drwing it out sure.

But you have to go super high aav to get schwarber for 2 years cuz hes a btter hitter (and player overall) than soto.

maybe i should have stopped at better than alonso, i might have gotten carried away better than soto

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

touche but dont care.

This is like nfl silly or nhl silly when you jsut go super long to make the aav look better. Vlads contract goes out 15 years the real aav is the 500m/10, becaues you cant project him doing much years 11 on. Theres value in drwing it out sure.

But you have to go super high aav to get schwarber for 2 years cuz hes a btter hitter (and player overall) than soto.

The real AAV is what counts against the CBT. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought "mutual" meant Polanco could say No (and would do so.)

It's only if he says Yes and they say no, that he gets the $750K buyout.

You’re correct.

cots and B-R call it a mutual option.  MLBTR has it as a team option.  So maybe MLBTR is wrong here?

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

But you have to go super high aav to get schwarber for 2 years cuz hes a btter hitter (and player overall) than soto.

Gregory Soto?  Yes, absolutely.

Juan Soto? No, especially since Juan is like 6 years younger…

[drewski6]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The real AAV is what counts against the CBT. 

Fair

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Gregory Soto?  Yes, absolutely.

Juan Soto? No, especially since Juan is like 6 years younger…

I walked that back and will concede I got carried away.

But I think over the next 2 years Schwarbers OPS beats devers and alonsos