Sox needs for 2026 step forward

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's the risk you take when trying to sign injured pitchers. I don't think it was reasonable to expect any innings out of him in '25. He should be ready in '26, but a lot of TJS pitchers are a rollercoaster when first coming back. 

what did we pay this guy again? Freaking yanks have max fried last year and this year at like 12m. How did they get that and were paying like equal money to dudes who wont get on the field.

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not expecting anything more than disappointment, and yes bringing back Breggie and Gio, even add on Matz and Ref would be a bummer, to me.

1. It's doubtful they give us equal value in 2026 as 2025.

2. We still have not made up for losing Devers, and no, Anthony is not his replacement.

3. We ended up with an offense that came up way short, when it counted and were grasping at rookies to try and find a #2 SP'er we thought we might have had with Gio & Bello until September rolled around.

This is the time to go bold. They made motions of grandeur, last winter with all the Soto and other overtures, and then actually shocked some of us by going $40M on Breggie, at the last minute. 

Months later they dumped Devers and made more promises. Now, Breggie has opted out, Gio too, and we await Story's choice. Ref & Matz are FAs. The much brighter outlook of last March is now no better than the outlook at March 2024.

We still have a winter for moves and shakes. We need to get bold, but it's doubtful JH & Co. see it that way, or at least to the extent many of us feel they need to be.

Only time will tell, but it's going to take a lot to satisfy me, yet I say that with very low expectations on what they will end up doing. I want a lot but am counting on next to nothing more than status quo.

I think your expectations are fair. I love this version of you when you call out their b.s.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

what did we pay this guy again? Freaking yanks have max fried last year and this year at like 12m. How did they get that and were paying like equal money to dudes who wont get on the field.

It's the $27.3M x 8 years that scared Brez. He'd rather pay $28M AAV for Buehler + Sandoval, and think he's smart.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think your expectations are fair. I love this version of you when you call out their b.s.

I'm not predicting we do nothing or seek status quo: i'm just not going to expect more.

I was pleasantly surprised, last winter. Like many of our signings, last winter could easily have been Brez's one & done.

[Larry Cook]

If the Korean short stop for Tampa opts out this year, we should sign him. Defensively , he is a huge upgrade over story and he allows story to move back to second base where he is less of a defensive menace. 
Mayer stays at 3B and then we just need a power bat at first if cassas starts the year at Worcester 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If the Korean short stop for Tampa opts out this year, we should sign him. Defensively , he is a huge upgrade over story and he allows story to move back to second base where he is less of a defensive menace. 
Mayer stays at 3B and then we just need a power bat at first if cassas starts the year at Worcester 

Casas will likely start on IL. The main question is the 60 or 15?

I've been defending Casas on offense, of late, but no way can we plan on him being the 1Bman for 2026. If anything, plan on him being in the DH mix by May or June and an emergency back-up 1Bman going forward.

I'm fine with Hoskins or even Josh Bell, as long as we get big bopper for another slot.

Alonso would be great, and I'm really not so sure why everyone thinks 4 teams will bid him into the stratosphere, when he's a year older than last winter. He's going to get a lot, but we're not talking Vladdy money, Tucker money or even Devers money.

I'm pulling for Alonso plus Suarez or Polanco, but I know those odds are miniscule. If Alonso ends up moving to DH, Suarez can move to 1B and Mayer to 3B (from SS or 2B.) If we get Polanco, then Alonso probably sticks at 1B for a few years. He's not any worse on D than Casas, who could end up DH'ing, eventually. Polanco is a switch hitter who has nice splits. Alonso & Suarez would be 2 RHBs, but that's okay. Maybe try to keep Duran & Abreu and trade RHBs Garcia & Campbell, instead. Throw in DHam.... lol.

Can we get Ryan or Lodolo for Campbell, Garcia and Sandlin? If yes, then...

1. L Anthony LF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Duran DH/ R Romy DH

6. R Story SS/2B

7. L Mayer 2B/SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

(Or vs RHPs Duran in CF, Yoshida at DH and Rafaela on the bench)

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's the $27.3M x 8 years that scared Brez. He'd rather pay $28M AAV for Buehler + Sandoval, and think he's smart.

That contract scares me too. 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That contract scares me too. 

Indeed, but our record with one and dones has been putrid.

Getting 3-4 good years, 2-3 okay years and 2-3 bad years would be a better record than we have had so far.

Plus, our window is no, so getting those "good years" up front was what we needed.

[drewski6]

There has been hyper inflation since Devers signed that contract, not to mention the 50m / yr threshhold has been broken multiple times.

We'll see if contracts snap back, but its been how many years since Price broke the 30m/yr threshhold?

I wouldnt count on the market for Alonso not factoring in that we've had 30m aav (at years) in the league for a decade, and some 50m aav players.

We'll have to see. Fair or unfair there are plenty of cheap owners in baseball and the mets and dodgers cant sign everybody.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, but our record with one and dones has been putrid.

Getting 3-4 good years, 2-3 okay years and 2-3 bad years would be a better record than we have had so far.

Plus, our window is no, so getting those "good years" up front was what we needed.

Why is the Sox window “now”? 
 

We have Crochet, Anthony, Bello, and Rafaela locked up.  Three (plus?) more years of Duran and/or Abreu.  The only significant players reaching free agency before 2028 are Story and Houck.  And I might be stretching the definition of “significant” there…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Why is the Sox window “now”? 
 

We have Crochet, Anthony, Bello, and Rafaela locked up.  Three (plus?) more years of Duran and/or Abreu.  The only significant players reaching free agency before 2028 are Story and Houck.  And I might be stretching the definition of “significant” there…

Aroldis

Refsnyder

Are you suggesting they punt until '27 since there aren't any pending FA's? 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Aroldis

Refsnyder

Are you suggesting they punt until '27 since there aren't any pending FA's? 

When I look at the level of effort put forth by our GM/CBO over the last 6 years, I think the thing that stands out to me....that we need.....is less urgency!

Slow down guys!

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Aroldis

Refsnyder

Are you suggesting they punt until '27 since there aren't any pending FA's? 

(Oops on Aroldis.  Had his name on my mind and didn’t type it.  Arguments can be made about the significance of Refsnyder.)

No on punting.  But then i don’t think not signing Pete Alonso equals punting.

Are you suggesting the Sox should just sign players to nine figure deals because they’re “best available”?

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

There has been hyper inflation since Devers signed that contract, not to mention the 50m / yr threshhold has been broken multiple times.

We'll see if contracts snap back, but its been how many years since Price broke the 30m/yr threshhold?

I wouldnt count on the market for Alonso not factoring in that we've had 30m aav (at years) in the league for a decade, and some 50m aav players.

We'll have to see. Fair or unfair there are plenty of cheap owners in baseball and the mets and dodgers cant sign everybody.

He's so bad on defense that he's really a DH-like signing, but one could argue Devers was, too.

I won't be surprised if he signs for $30-35M AAV, but I'm guessing there will be a sort of repeat of last winter, but he'll get slightly more and longer terms. He got $27M x 2 w an optout. He may get $30M x 5, $33M x 4 or $31M x 3, IMO.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

(Oops on Aroldis.  Had his name on my mind and didn’t type it.  Arguments can be made about the significance of Refsnyder.)

No on punting.  But then i don’t think not signing Pete Alonso equals punting.

Are you suggesting the Sox should just sign players to nine figure deals because they’re “best available”?

If the first digit in the nine digit number is 1 than yes!  At least in this case.

Why just roll forward the same roster? Because its fun to try to figure out how to best use what you got? Are you sure you just dont love baseball puzzles and signing players to holes is just too easy?

I dont necessarily blame you, but I would recommend loading up the show on xbox to scratch that itch. Its the best game ever made.

[drewski6]

There is simply no good reason to not sign schwarber or alonso to a 9 figure deal, if the first number in the nine figures is a 1.

[drewski6]

Why be fine with players when you can have better players?

[drewski6]

my walk from schwarber and alonso is 200m.  Any 9 digit number that starts with a 1 is a snap-call.

[drewski6]

And if schwarber and alonso cross the 200m threshhold, then i pivot to breg and if he can be had for a 9 digit number beginning with a 1 and the aforementioned 2 are off hte board, sure.

[drewski6]

Its 2026 (practically) the best players are signed to 500m+ contracts.  We have a glaring hole in the middle of our lineup. If you are balking at plugging that with a $1xx,xxx,xxx contract than you are probably just either too high on the players we have, or you just enjoy solving baseball puzzles with "what you have".

I dont sign expensive free agents in my video game because its too easy. Even with the lux tax on. But in real life, we dont need to disadvantage ourselves for funsies.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

(Oops on Aroldis.  Had his name on my mind and didn’t type it.  Arguments can be made about the significance of Refsnyder.)

No on punting.  But then i don’t think not signing Pete Alonso equals punting.

Are you suggesting the Sox should just sign players to nine figure deals because they’re “best available”?

No, I'm not advocating for just signing guys to sign guys. They need to target guys that fit their needs via FA and trades. With the value of 1b being relatively low, it could be easier to just go out and acquire a 1b via trade. Or just sign Hoskins to a cheaper deal than Alonso.

Sox needs: 1b, 2b, 3b, SP

1b Hoskins (1 year deal)

2b Mayer plus cheap 2b/SS acquisition to backup

3b Suarez (multi year deal, move to 1b in '27) 

SP Cease (looking for short term high AAV per reports) or Gallen

 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's so bad on defense that he's really a DH-like signing, but one could argue Devers was, too.

I won't be surprised if he signs for $30-35M AAV, but I'm guessing there will be a sort of repeat of last winter, but he'll get slightly more and longer terms. He got $27M x 2 w an optout. He may get $30M x 5, $33M x 4 or $31M x 3, IMO.

He's worse than Devers and he may end up with a bigger contract too. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the first digit in the nine digit number is 1 than yes!  At least in this case.

Why just roll forward the same roster? Because its fun to try to figure out how to best use what you got? Are you sure you just dont love baseball puzzles and signing players to holes is just too easy?

I dont necessarily blame you, but I would recommend loading up the show on xbox to scratch that itch. It’s the best game ever made.

Isn’t that what this sight is for?  It’s not like Breslow is reading my posts or and thinking “hmmm..  I hadn’t thought of that.  But it’s crazy enough that it just might work.”

How many players in this market would you go 9 figures on?  With contracts they would sign, of course.   Because not one of the available FAs  is putting his name on a deal for $1000 a year for 100,000 years…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's worse than Devers and he may end up with a bigger contract too. 

I'd bet my house against that. I doubt Alonso even gets $200M, but I would not bet against $200M/6 or 7. 

Maybe he gets $170M/5 or $186M/6. Even that seems way too high compared to last winter.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, I'm not advocating for just signing guys to sign guys. They need to target guys that fit their needs via FA and trades. With the value of 1b being relatively low, it could be easier to just go out and acquire a 1b via trade. Or just sign Hoskins to a cheaper deal than Alonso.

Sox needs: 1b, 2b, 3b, SP

1b Hoskins (1 year deal)

2b Mayer plus cheap 2b/SS acquisition to backup

3b Suarez (multi year deal, move to 1b in '27) 

I could see this being near plan A. (I removed Cease and Gallen.)

I'd like to see Alonso & Polanco/Suarez, but that is unrealistic for JH to allow.

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd bet my house against that. I doubt Alonso even gets $200M, but I would not bet against $200M/6 or 7. 

Maybe he gets $170M/5 or $186M/6. Even that seems way too high compared to last winter.

Alonso wants 7 years, but he doesn’t seem to in touch with his market value, which is why he is a free agent again.
 

Ive seen 6yr $186mill projections.  But is anyone going $31 AAV on him for 6 years?

I think closer to 5 yrs maybe $150mill.  And at that price he might be a better deal than Bregman…

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see this being near plan A. (I removed Cease and Gallen.)

I'd like to see Alonso & Polanco/Suarez, but that is unrealistic for JH to allow.

Polanco has a cheap team option.  Hes not going to see free agency for another year…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Why is the Sox window “now”? 
 

We have Crochet, Anthony, Bello, and Rafaela locked up.  Three (plus?) more years of Duran and/or Abreu.  The only significant players reaching free agency before 2028 are Story and Houck.  And I might be stretching the definition of “significant” there…

The window is from now until 3 maybe more years. It's a big bay window.

[notin]

I’m operating on the (safe?) assumption thr Sox won’t sign multiple players to nine figure deals.  
 

The disadvantage to signing Alonso is if you use free agency to fill the 2b/3b void, the non-Bregman options are unexciting (unless you’re high on Suarez, which I am not).  The disadvantage to signing Bregman is he is not the hitter Alonso is, but the second tier 1b options are at least moderately interesting. 
 

Which is the better solution - Bregman and Hoskins (or Bell)?  Or Alonso and Gleyber Torres?  And if Torres is too pricey (possible), then who? Luis Rengifo?
 

 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why be fine with players when you can have better players?

I'm in total agreement. I think we need two major additions, minimum, but one is essential.