Trade proposal from Twins Daily: Joe Ryan for Jarren Duran (plus prospects)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Honestly, I don't know how I feel about this. Joe Ryan is immensely valuable, and comes with two years of control. However, he's a pitcher, whereas Duran is a position player whose performance is somewhat more predictable. It's the prospects that make this feel unbalanced to me. If you were to propose Ryan-for-Duran, that's a heist for the Sox. Add in this prospect mix, and it feels unbalanced in the other direction.

Twins Trade Fiction: Imagining a Ryan-for-Duran Swap - Twins - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

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This isn’t a rumor, report, or insider leak—just a thought experiment. But if the Twins decided to pivot toward 2026, here’s a trade idea that could make sense for two "bubble" teams. It’s...

 

[notin]

BTV gives Ryan a surplus value of $69.6 mill and Duran a surplus value of $39.5 mill.  In order to make up that difference, the Red Sox would need to include something a long the lines of Peyton Tolle and David Sandlin.   Not that I know what Minnesota would be interested in…

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, notin said:

BTV gives Ryan a surplus value of $69.6 mill and Duran a surplus value of $39.5 mill.  In order to make up that difference, the Red Sox would need to include something a long the lines of Peyton Tolle and David Sandlin.   Not that I know what Minnesota would be interested in…

I would give them Sandlin in a heartbeat. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would give them Sandlin in a heartbeat. 

But would you give them Duran, Tolle and Sandlin for Joe Ryan?

 It’s not an unreasonable trade proposal…

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, notin said:

But would you give them Duran, Tolle and Sandlin for Joe Ryan?

 It’s not an unreasonable trade proposal…

Not Sandlin AND Tolle. 

Duran, Sandlin and Mullins. 

I'm not looking to trade Tolle, a guy with tons of helium right now.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not Sandlin AND Tolle. 

Duran, Sandlin and Mullins. 

I'm not looking to trade Tolle, a guy with tons of helium right now.

I was just giving BTV values.  Tolle has a surplus value of $20 mill.   Mullins has a surplus value of $2.3 mill.  Minnesota might be willing to accept Mullins along with Sandlin and Duran, but that deal doesn’t work on the BTV model.  Maybe it does work on how Minnesota evaluates players.  No idea.

But I also have my doubts…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I was just giving BTV values.  Tolle has a surplus value of $20 mill.   Mullins has a surplus value of $2.3 mill.  Minnesota might be willing to accept Mullins along with Sandlin and Duran, but that deal doesn’t work on the BTV model.  Maybe it does work on how Minnesota evaluates players.  No idea.

But I also have my doubts…

I don't think BTV does a great job at valuing MiLB guys. Are 9 Mullins worth one Tolle? There's an increasing chance that Mullins is added to someone's 40 man this offseason. He threw an immaculate inning last time out. He's certainly not Payton Tolle, but he's a decent prospect. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think BTV does a great job at valuing MiLB guys. Are 9 Mullins worth one Tolle? There's an increasing chance that Mullins is added to someone's 40 man this offseason. He threw an immaculate inning last time out. He's certainly not Payton Tolle, but he's a decent prospect. 

BTV does a pretty bad job of valuing minor-league players, but my view is that BTV is often better than nothing.

My biggest beef is that it "rejects" trade proposals, knowing that it's not a great valuator in the first place.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

BTV does a pretty bad job of valuing minor-league players, but my view is that BTV is often better than nothing.

My biggest beef is that it "rejects" trade proposals, knowing that it's not a great valuator in the first place.

I agree that it's the only tool that we got. I just think there have been many times on here that posters have said "well, it won't work if it doesn't work per BTV."

Payton Tolle is a top 50 prospect now and some BA guys think he's one of the top 10 arms in MiLB. Things like that don't get adequately measured by BTV. That's why I don't really like the MLB player plus MiLB potpourri trade proposals that get run through BTV. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As much as I covet Joe Ryan, I wouldn't trade Tolle for him straight up.

Ryan is at the top of his game, and actually has a higher WAR than Crochet or Fried. He's having a better year than most of the starters selected to the AL All-Star pitching staff.

But Tolle is a monster in an organization that never has a pitching prospect with monster potential. He'll be in the majors soon and should make an immediate impact.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As much as I covet Joe Ryan, I wouldn't trade Tolle for him straight up.

Ryan is at the top of his game, and actually has a higher WAR than Crochet or Fried. He's having a better year than most of the starters selected to the AL All-Star pitching staff.

But Tolle is a monster in an organization that never has a pitching prospect with monster potential. He'll be in the majors soon and should make an immediate impact.

Tolle is most likely pitching in the majors at some point next season with how things are looking now. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

BTV does a pretty bad job of valuing minor-league players, but my view is that BTV is often better than nothing.

My biggest beef is that it "rejects" trade proposals, knowing that it's not a great valuator in the first place.

Evaluating minor leaguers is difficult for anyone.  BA is one of the most popular sources for many fans, but if you look at any past Top 100 list, you will find 10-15 guys who peaked at utility infielder. Really any job that involves predicting the future involves being wrong a certain percentage of the time.  
 

As for Mullins, not sure how undervalued he is.  He is a 24yo LHP who turns 25 n two months and has pitched 33 IP above A ball in which he has 5.3 BB/9.  He might go on for a great career, but I am not so sure he is a hot trade commodity in 2025.  Certainly not as a secondary piece in a trade for multiple years of a SP already valued at 3.9 bWAR in early July…

[mvp 78]

6 years of control for Sandlin (not hot and bothered about)

6 years of control for Tolle

3.5 years of control for Duran

vs

2.5 years of control for Ryan 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Evaluating minor leaguers is difficult for anyone.  BA is one of the most popular sources for many fans, but if you look at any past Top 100 list, you will find 10-15 guys who peaked at utility infielder. Really any job that involves predicting the future involves being wrong a certain percentage of the time.  
 

As for Mullins, not sure how undervalued he is.  He is a 24yo LHP who turns 25 n two months and has pitched 33 IP above A ball in which he has 5.3 BB/9.  He might go on for a great career, but I am not so sure he is a hot trade commodity in 2025.  Certainly not as a secondary piece in a trade for multiple years of a SP already valued at 3.9 bWAR in early July…

With Sandlin. 

The 3.9 bWAR is also more than he had the previous two seasons combined. Forgive me if I don't get hot and bothered about his high watermark. Ryan hasn't been a workhorse and may go out his next start and end up missing the rest of the year afterwards.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Evaluating minor leaguers is difficult for anyone.  BA is one of the most popular sources for many fans, but if you look at any past Top 100 list, you will find 10-15 guys who peaked at utility infielder. Really any job that involves predicting the future involves being wrong a certain percentage of the time. 

Oh, for sure. And that's not even factoring in how a team like the Brewers would be happy to pluck an off-the-radar pitcher out of most systems and turn him into something good. So much depends on what the team is scouting, why they're scouting it, and how good they are at maximizing talent.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As much as I covet Joe Ryan, I wouldn't trade Tolle for him straight up.

Ryan is at the top of his game, and actually has a higher WAR than Crochet or Fried. He's having a better year than most of the starters selected to the AL All-Star pitching staff.

But Tolle is a monster in an organization that never has a pitching prospect with monster potential. He'll be in the majors soon and should make an immediate impact.

The Red Sox have NEVER had a pitching prospect like Tolle? Never?

Maybe in recent years, but does never go back far enough to include Lester? Buchholz? Clemens?

Tolle might be great, but didnt we also think that about Kopech? Or Hansen?

Ryan is among the best in MLB right now.  I can understand not wanting to deal Tolle for him.  I can understand that being a dealbreaker, too.  But let’s not go overboard…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Sandlin. 

The 3.9 bWAR is also more than he had the previous two seasons combined. Forgive me if I don't get hot and bothered about his high watermark. Ryan hasn't been a workhorse and may go out his next start and end up missing the rest of the year afterwards.

While injuries are a concern, it’s a bit unfair to cite them solely for Ryan.  Isn’t Tolle equally capable of getting hurt?

Im not sure I would deal Tolle for Ryan, either.  But I would be very surprised if Minnesota made the deal without him.  And certainly not with Mullins in his place.  Not like Ryan is a rental…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

6 years of control for Sandlin (not hot and bothered about)

6 years of control for Tolle

3.5 years of control for Duran

vs

2.5 years of control for Ryan 

Ryan is one of the best pitchers in MLB right now and under control for 2.5 years.  If you’re comfortable with a trade package for him, it’s probably because it isn’t enough…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The Red Sox have NEVER had a pitching prospect like Tolle? Never?

Maybe in recent years, but does never go back far enough to include Lester? Buchholz? Clemens?

Tolle might be great, but didnt we also think that about Kopech? Or Hansen?

Ryan is among the best in MLB right now.  I can understand not wanting to deal Tolle for him.  I can understand that being a dealbreaker, too.  But let’s not go overboard…

excuse me! forgot to write IN THIS DECADE, since this is where we're living. 

I did hear the Red Sox once had a great left-handed pitching prospect who was so good there was a candy bar named after the daughter of President Grover Cleveland, whose city had a pro team called the Spiders that was so bad they weren't celebrated until Ziggy Stardust, whose creator finally made the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but didn't accept the award because he wasn't a first-ballot inductee and actually on tour at the time.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

excuse me! forgot to write IN THIS DECADE, since this is where we're living. 

I did hear the Red Sox once had a great left-handed pitching prospect who was so good there was a candy bar named after the daughter of President Grover Cleveland, whose city had a pro team called the Spiders that was so bad they weren't celebrated until Ziggy Stardust, whose creator finally made the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but didn't accept the award because he wasn't a first-ballot inductee and actually on tour at the time.

Don’t blame the reader for misunderstanding the word “never” to mean “within the past 10 years.”

Im not even saying the Sox need to deal Tolle here.  But I am saying I doubt Minnesota makes the deal without him.

But I think this board is prime for some Deadline Disappointment after banning any trade that includes Tolle or Garcia or anyone with potential, and yet still expects a #2 starter to comeback in a deal for Sandlin, Vaughn Grissom and Cooper Criswell.  It turns out most teams prefer the single dollar over 4 quarters…

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

The Red Sox have NEVER had a pitching prospect like Tolle? Never?

Maybe in recent years, but does never go back far enough to include Lester? Buchholz? Clemens?

Tolle might be great, but didnt we also think that about Kopech? Or Hansen?

Ryan is among the best in MLB right now.  I can understand not wanting to deal Tolle for him.  I can understand that being a dealbreaker, too.  But let’s not go overboard…

Kopech wasn't a top 50 prospect until after he was traded to the White Sox. He had decent value, but never made it to AA with the BoSox. 

Craig Hansen was a pure reliever and not comparable to the others listed. 

If we have to go back 17 years to find a like prospect to Tolle, it says a lot about either the prospect or the system. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kopech wasn't a top 50 prospect until after he was traded to the White Sox. He had decent value, but never made it to AA with the BoSox. 

Craig Hansen was a pure reliever and not comparable to the others listed. 

If we have to go back 17 years to find a like prospect to Tolle, it says a lot about either the prospect or the system. 

Probably the system.  I’m also very hesitant to get worked up about pitchers with 17 IP above A ball.   A lot can still go wrong on the way to Boston…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Don’t blame the reader for misunderstanding the word “never” to mean “within the past 10 years.”

Im not even saying the Sox need to deal Tolle here.  But I am saying I doubt Minnesota makes the deal without him.

But I think this board is prime for some Deadline Disappointment after banning any trade that includes Tolle or Garcia or anyone with potential, and yet still expects a #2 starter to comeback in a deal for Sandlin, Vaughn Grissom and Cooper Criswell.  It turns out most teams prefer the single dollar over 4 quarters…

I don't think they go out and get a #2. I think it's more likely the do a bigger trade that takes away from their MLB team than adds to. They may add some relievers to help with the tired arms in the pen as well. 

[Soxlover]

Maybe they like Perales or Early enough to not demand Tolle. Maybe offer:

Duran

Cespedes

2 from Sandlin, Early, Perales

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think they go out and get a #2. I think it's more likely the do a bigger trade that takes away from their MLB team than adds to. They may add some relievers to help with the tired arms in the pen as well. 

If they only win X games between now and the deadline, they will take away as much as possible from their MLB roster.  And recall Campbell.

 

If they win more than X, whatever Breslow thinks that number is, I think they add a 1b and bullpen help…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not Sandlin AND Tolle. 

Duran, Sandlin and Mullins. 

I'm not looking to trade Tolle, a guy with tons of helium right now.

Are you not at least a bit worried about him floating away

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

Maybe they like Perales or Early enough to not demand Tolle. Maybe offer:

Duran

Cespedes

2 from Sandlin, Early, Perales

Maybe, 

If you were the Twins CBO and your job was riding on this trade including what the press said, do you make that trade?  Or do you give up 2.5 years of one of the best pitchers in the AL despite pitching in a very weak division? And face the wrath of LaVelle E. Neal III the following morning?

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Don’t blame the reader for misunderstanding the word “never” to mean “within the past 10 years.”

Im not even saying the Sox need to deal Tolle here.  But I am saying I doubt Minnesota makes the deal without him.

But I think this board is prime for some Deadline Disappointment after banning any trade that includes Tolle or Garcia or anyone with potential, and yet still expects a #2 starter to comeback in a deal for Sandlin, Vaughn Grissom and Cooper Criswell.  It turns out most teams prefer the single dollar over 4 quarters…

My top choice for #2 pitcher right now is Crochet learning how to throw with his right arm.

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kopech wasn't a top 50 prospect until after he was traded to the White Sox. He had decent value, but never made it to AA with the BoSox. 

Craig Hansen was a pure reliever and not comparable to the others listed. 

If we have to go back 17 years to find a like prospect to Tolle, it says a lot about either the prospect or the system. 

I just pulled up Tolles profile and immediately saw 6'6. Thats starting with a lot of points.

[drewski6]

This dude Tolle is a 6'6 lefty who throws 98 with a slider.  Wait is this dude Crochet?