Article: Jarren Duran Needs a Change of Scenery

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally agree, and even if Duran never comes close to these numbers, again, he will still likely be a top 5-6 offensive player on this team: better than Rafaela

Duran and Rafaela are neck and neck right now with Rafaela playing GG defense and Duran playing LL defense. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran and Rafaela are neck and neck right now with Rafaela playing GG defense and Duran playing LL defense. 

The gap has tightened over the past few weeks, but Duran has been the more proven offensive threat over sample sizes that go back 2 or 3 years. He's still slightly better, this year, so I count him as better on offense, which was what the topic was about.

No doubt, Rafaela and Abreu are much better on defense.

wRC+

2025: 93 Duran/ 91 Rafaela

24-25: 117 Duran/ 83 Rafaela

23-25: 118 Duran/82 Rafaela

Obviously, this shows the trends are going in opposite directions, but I still think Duran is better on offense.

(BTW, Rafaela has a higher Baserunning score than Duran, this year, on fangraphs.)

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The gap has tightened over the past few weeks, but Duran has been the more proven offensive threat over sample sizes that go back 2 or 3 years. He's still slightly better, this year, so I count him as better on offense, which was what the topic was about.

No doubt, Rafaela and Abreu are much better on defense.

wRC+

2025: 93 Duran/ 91 Rafaela

24-25: 117 Duran/ 83 Rafaela

23-25: 118 Duran/82 Rafaela

Obviously, this shows the trends are going in opposite directions, but I still think Duran is better on offense.

(BTW, Rafaela has a higher Baserunning score than Duran, this year, on fangraphs.)

I'm not quite sure what Rafaela's first 23 games are supposed to tell us. It's not like you're adding in Duran's 33 games from '21 when he had a 48 wRC+ or his 77 wRC+ from '22. Rafaela is 24 and having his first solid season. Duran is 28 and is no longer carrying an unsustainable 381 BABIP like in '23 or able to hit anything up in the zone. He can only hit pitches that are down. Last year he was able to hit the pitches up under his hands.  

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not quite sure what Rafaela's first 23 games are supposed to tell us. It's not like you're adding in Duran's 33 games from '21 when he had a 48 wRC+ or his 77 wRC+ from '22. Rafaela is 24 and having his first solid season. Duran is 28 and is no longer carrying an unsustainable 381 BABIP like in '23 or able to hit anything up in the zone. He can only hit pitches that are down. Last year he was able to hit the pitches up under his hands.  

So, you would project Rafaela to be better on offense, going forward.

I guess you like Rafaela, now.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, you would project Rafaela to be better on offense, going forward.

Not sure how you are getting that from they "are neck and neck right now." At some point Rafaela will be better offensively because Duran will tail off, but I don't know when that will be. It might not be for another few years though. Rafaela may catch up and they may profile similarly. Duran may bounce back. It's hard to say as we don't see what they are doing behind the scenes. I know Duran is continuing to tinker with his stance (location in the box, distance between feet) and it's not working. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure how you are getting that from they "are neck and neck right now." At some point Rafaela will be better offensively because Duran will tail off, but I don't know when that will be. It might not be for another few years though. Rafaela may catch up and they may profile similarly. Duran may bounce back. It's hard to say as we don't see what they are doing behind the scenes. I know Duran is continuing to tinker with his stance (location in the box, distance between feet) and it's not working. 

Well, you just said it, so I guess I was reading your mind.

Yes, "going forward," you think Rafaela will be better on offense (at some point.)

Duran has been tinkering with his stance and approach for what seems like forever. I'm not sure why he didn't just stick with what was working, unless the tinkering came after he started doing worse, and he is trying adjust to how pitchers adjusted to his previous approach/stance.

If I had to guess, I'd say Duran will be better from 2026-2027 and maybe 2028, too. They might be even, after that for another year or two.

On D, Rafaela runs circles around Duran.

[Larry Cook]

I think Duran needs a fresh  start:

Duran, Hamilton and prospects (not Mayer or Anthony) to desperate Dave for painter!!!!!

time for bres-slow to dance with desperate Dave 
 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Duran needs a fresh  start:

Duran, Hamilton and prospects (not Mayer or Anthony) to desperate Dave for painter!!!!!

time for bres-slow to dance with desperate Dave 
 

I'm wondering what a plan B w DD might be...

Mick Abel?

[Larry Cook]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm wondering what a plan B w DD might be...

Mick Abel?

If I was desperate Dave, I would never trade Abel, even for Anthony 

[Larry Cook]

Plan B trade - I do not know what Arizona is going to do at the trade deadline, but Merrill Kelly is a guy I would take a flyer on! 
he is a rental so he we should be able to get him fairly cheap 

[Zippo102]

Pitching is at an all time premium right now. No one is giving up a quality starting pitcher right now. At least not what the Sox need. If we can't get back a good pitcher in return then why do it. I get so sick of hearing "it will make us better in the long run".  How long have we been hearing that? Just because he has trade value doesn't mean we should trade him. When he bats leadoff and gets going the whole team gets going. And i don't know another player on that team that plays as hard as he does. That dude never wants to take a day off and I don't care what the score is that boy is hustling. I get that GMs are suppose to look at the business side of it and not fall in love with players, but it seems like the Sox have gone far beyond the business side of it. Yes, he has struggled playing LF, if any of you have played baseball you know just because you can play one OF position doesn't mean you can play them all. The ball comes off the bat differently and when you're playing CF the you are looking straight into the batters box with just one wall to contend with.  I'm not sure why we are giving up on him so quickly. Half a season does not seem that long when you are talking about baseball.

If you want to trade someone, Trade the f****** manager. With his constant tinkering with the lineup, positions, and pitching staff. He never holds players accountable, he jsut wants to be their friend. He always says " he had an off night" or talk about how good the other teams pitcher or hitter is. How about jcalling them to the plate and saying "do better".

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If I was desperate Dave, I would never trade Abel, even for Anthony 

It will take more than Duran for Abel or Painter.

Would Duran, Romy and Early be enough?

[Duran Is The Man]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It will take more than Duran for Abel or Painter.

Would Duran, Romy and Early be enough?

why don't we give them Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs and Bello for Painter? i mean they were worth one Rafael Devers -an established superstar slugger already under contract- versus a guy who has yet to throw his first pitch in the major leagues.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, you just said it, so I guess I was reading your mind.

Yes, "going forward," you think Rafaela will be better on offense (at some point.)

"Going forward" and "at some point" are two different concepts, pal.