Article: The Red Sox Are Awful In One-Run Games. How Can They Fix It?

[Daniel Fox]

My old baseball coach used to say that the team that didn’t do the little things would lose 2-1.

Unsurprisingly, that is something that has come to my mind a lot while watching the 2025 Boston Red Sox, a team that, it feels like, will always find some way to lose. A runner stranded on second after a leadoff double. A throwing error that allows the winning run to move into scoring position. A leadoff walk to an eight-hole hitter that will inevitably come around to score. And so on and so forth.

Going 28-31 with 15 one-run losses seems almost unbelievable, but it’s the best way to sum up an underachieving team that doesn’t know how to close out games. Game after game after game, the Red Sox have come up a hair short, not because of talent, but because of a lack of execution. A lack of attention to detail. A mistake made in the sixth or seventh inning that comes around to burn them in the ninth. Take these games for example: 

April 9: Blue Jays 2, Red Sox 1 (Final/10)

After Greg Weissert pitched a scoreless 10th inning, the Red Sox had a prime chance to walk it off in the bottom of the tenth with the ghost runner on second and nobody out. Triston Casas did his job by moving the runner to third with a ground ball to second, leaving the winning run 90 feet away with Trevor Story coming to the plate. In what would be an unfortunate sign of things to come, Story would foul off two pitches over the heart of the plate before chasing a Jeff Hoffman slider well off the plate for strike three. After a Wilyer Abreu intentional walk, Kristian Campbell would also go down on strikes, blowing a golden opportunity to end the game right there. 

Despite this, the Red Sox still had an opportunity to win the game in the bottom of the 11th after Josh Winckowski held the Blue Jays to just one run in the top half. Yet once again, David Hamilton failed to advance the runner and Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran would go down easily to end a heartbreaking 2-1 final. 

April 12: White Sox 3, Red Sox 2

Holding a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning, what looked like an easy win was turned on its head when Richard Fitts had to exit with a pec injury. Zack Kelly promptly allowed a two-run home run to the second batter he faced, and the game would remain tied 2-2 heading into the ninth inning. Of course, the Red Sox blew an opportunity to take the lead in the seventh, when after a Ceddanne Rafaela single and stolen base put a runner on second base with nobody out, the top of the Red Sox order would go down in order without even moving Rafaela over 90 feet. 

Aroldis Chapman entered in the bottom of the ninth to try and send the game to extras, but things would escalate rather quickly, thanks to a leadoff walk to Luis Robert Jr., who had a measly .536 OPS even after his earlier homer. Robert would steal second off to the slow-to-the-plate Chapman, and Brooks Baldwin would win the game with a line drive down the left field line. 

April 26: Guardians 5, Red Sox 4

After scoring four runs in the first two-plus innings, the Red Sox went scoreless in the last seven frames, though they had plenty of chances. Alex Bregman followed Rafael Devers’ game-tying homer with a double in the third, but Story couldn’t advance the runner and went down on strikes. The Red Sox got the first two runners on in the fourth, but Rafaela flew out, Duran grounded out, and Devers flew out without even moving the runner to third. Finally, in the ninth, the Red Sox got the tying run to second base with nobody out, but a Devers lineout, a Bregman flyout, and a Story strikeout ended things rather quickly. 

It should be noted that the Guardians scored the go-ahead run on a Will Wilson hit-by-pitch (.533 OPS), an Angel Martinez should-be double play ball that glanced off Brennan Bernardino’s glove for a single, and a bloop single by Steven Kwan that glanced off Story’s outstretched glove. 

April 30: Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6

Trailing 6-0 in the sixth inning, the Blue Jays cut the deficit in half on a pair of home runs, and Anthony Santander tied the game on a three-run home run off a middle-middle, 2-0 Garrett Whitlock changeup. The Red Sox once again failed to move the ghost runner up in the top of the tenth, and the Blue Jays scored their ghost runner in the bottom half. 

May 1: Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 2 

With a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth, Justin Slaten hung a 1-2 sweeper to Bo Bichette (18th percentile chase rate) that was lifted deep to right field. Wilyer Abreu took a bad route, and the ball just glanced off his outstretched glove. Vladimir Guerrrero Jr. followed with a three-run home run, and that was that. 

May 3: Twins 4, Red Sox 3

With runners on first and second and one out in the eighth, Connor Wong negated what would have been a sure double steal with a foul ball. He grounded into a double play on the next pitch, and the Red Sox wouldn’t score in the bottom of the ninth. 

May 4: Twins 5, Red Sox 4

With a 3-1 lead in the top of the seventh, Whitlock walked Harrison Bader after being ahead 0-2, then threw a middle-middle slider to Ryan Jeffers with two outs and first base open that was rifled into the left-field corner for a game-tying two-run double. 

May 9: Royals 2, Red Sox 1

In a game where the Red Sox went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position, the Red Sox failed to advance the ghost runner in the 10th and 12th. The 10th inning was particularly costly, as Chapman would extend the game with a scoreless bottom half. Duran had an opportunity to end the game even earlier in the fifth but he struck out with Rafaela on third and one out against Michael Lorenzen (19% K rate).

May 13: Tigers 10, Red Sox 9

With two outs and a man on second in the sixth and possessing a 4-3 lead, Whitlock would hit Jace Jung (.111 hitter, since optioned to minors) and hang a sweeper to Javier Baez that was hammered for a three-run home run. Greg Weissert would do the same thing in the bottom of the tenth, leaving the Red Sox with a loss in a game they scored nine runs on 14 hits.

Oh, almost forgot. The Red Sox had a chance to extend their 4-3 lead in the top of the sixth with the bases loaded and one out, but both Rafaela and Duran struck out against Brant Hurter, whose fastball averages 92.2 miles per hour. 

May 14: Tigers 6, Red Sox 5

Trailing 5-2 in the top of the seventh, the Red Sox railed to tie the game against Tarik Skubal but failed to take the lead when Abreu grounded into a double play with one out and the bases loaded. The Red Sox would again have a chance to take the lead in the ninth inning but Rafael Devers struck out with first and third and one out. The game would be lost in the ninth inning when Chapman walked Andy Ibanez (.706 OPS), allowed him to steal second and advance to third on a Wong throwing error, and scored on a Justyn-Henry Malloy single. 

May 16: Braves 4, Red Sox 2

Despite facing a dominant Chris Sale, the Red Sox had multiple opportunities to break the game open against him. In the third inning, Bregman struck out looking with runners on first and third and one out, and Rafael Devers got caught stealing with lefty killer Rob Refsnyder up. In the sixth, Duran was caught stealing with Refsnyder up as the tying run, and he would lead off the seventh with a home run that cut the deficit in half. 

Trailing by one in the bottom of the eighth, the Red Sox got the tying run to second with nobody out, but Rafaela failed to advance him when he grounded out to short, and Duran and Devers would go down quietly.  Red Sox relievers would then walk five batters in the top of the ninth, including two with the bases loaded, preventing them from tying the game on a rare Story Single RBI single in the bottom of the ninth. 

May 24: Orioles 2, Red Sox 1

After getting shut out through the first seven innings, the Red Sox finally mustered a rally in the bottom of the eighth when Sogard led off with a single and Wong drew a walk to bring Rafaela to the plate with runners on first and second and nobody out. In an obvious bunt situation, Rafaela fouled off a pitch about two feet inside for strike one, then fouled off a bunt attempt for strike two. With the bunt now off, Rafaela chased a bad 0-2 pitch and lifted a lazy fly ball to right field that failed to advance the runners. Orioles reliever Seranthony Dominguez then struck out Duran and got Devers to pop up, squandering the Red Sox's only real rally of the game.

May 26: Brewers 3, Red Sox 2

After the Red Sox cut the Brewers lead in half with a run in the top of the eighth, Whitlock failed to produce a shutdown inning in the bottom of the eighth. With two outs and runners on the corners, Whitlock pitched around Caleb Durbin (.577 OPS) to load the bases, and Eric Hasse made him pay with a swinging bunt RBI single. The Red Sox would score another run in the top of the ninth, but Wong popped up with the bases loaded to end the game. 

May 27: Brewers 5, Red Sox 1 

After Aroldis Chapman blew his first save of the season, the Red Sox had an opportunity to blow the game open in the top of the 10th. With a first and third nobody out, Rafaela and Duran struck out and Devers flew out. The game was essentially at that point, but Christian Yelich provided the exclamation point with a walk-off grand slam. 

May 28: Brewers 6, Red Sox 5

The Red Sox had opportunities on both sides of the ball to prevent this game from going to extra innings. On offense, a careless mistake from Rafaela resulted in both him and Wong standing on third base and prevented a two-run rally from being even bigger. On defense, Duran couldn’t coral a sinker liner from Brice Turang, turning what should have been an inning-ending groundout from Jackson Chourio into an RBI. 

Despite these crucial mistakes, the Red Sox still could have won the game in the bottom of the tenth. Clinging to a one-run lead, Nick Sogard cut off a ground ball to second base rather than covering first, again turning what should have been the first out of the inning into a first and third, nobody out situation. The next batter hit a weak ground ball to Campbell, who made the decision to throw home even though the runner was probably safe anyway. The throw sailed wildly, allowing the winning run to advance to third with nobody out. Caleb Durbin followed with a sacrifice fly, finishing off the third devastating loss in three days. 

Wow. It’s hard to believe all those games occurred in just the first two months. In my opinion, the Red Sox's struggles in one-run games boil down to four key flaws: 

1. Too much swing-and-miss in the lineup

After finishing third in MLB in strikeouts in 2024, there was some optimism that the Red Sox would improve in the category in 2025 after swapping out Tyler O’Neill (33.6% K rate) for Bregman (13.6%). Yet, here we are at the end of May, and the Red Sox are once again third in the majors in strikeouts, and that’s even with Abreu and Rafaela making substantially more contact. Those changes, however, have been offset by the additions of Story (30%) and Campell (27%), leaving the Red Sox lineup just as whiff-prone as ever. 

The problem only grows worse in big moments. No team in baseball has struck out more with runners in scoring position than the Red Sox, who have fanned a whopping 154 times in 630 plate appearances. There have been so many times over these first two months where a Red Sox hitter has failed to put a ball in play at a time when a ground ball to the right side would suffice. When the margin of defeat has so often been one or two runs, this lack of situational hitting has frequently been the difference between wins and losses.

2. A group of relievers who are reluctant to attack with their fastball

Let’s take a look at some of the most disastrous pitches of the 2025 Red Sox season: 

• A hanging changeup by Whitlock to Santander (Game-tying three-run homer)
• A hanging sweeper by Slaten to Bichette (Double to move tying run to third)
• A hanging curve by Slaten to Guerrero (Three-run home run)
• A hanging sweeper by Whitlock to France (Game-tying two-run double)
• A hanging sweeper by Whitlock to Baez (Go-ahead homer)
• A hanging changeup by Weissert to Trey Sweeney (Game-tying single)
• A hanging sweeper by Weissert to Javy Baez (Walk-off homer)

Notice a pattern? The Red Sox have built a bullpen around relievers who rely on their secondary stuff over their fastball, and while the bullpen has mostly been effective this season, they have a terrible habit of throwing their worst breaking pitches at the worst possible time. 

It has been well known that the Andrew Bailey method utilizes more breaking pitches in favor of fastballs, and in year two of his tenure with the Red Sox, it feels like batters are beginning to catch on. They know these pitchers are going to get with their secondary pitches in big spots, and they have been ready for it. Take the Baez walk-off home run for example. You don’t put that good a swing on a first-pitch breaking ball unless you go up to the plate sitting on the pitch. 

If you are going to get beat, you want to get beat by your best pitch, and with Weissert and Slaten in particular, that just hasn’t been the case:

Weissert: 

Opponents WOBA vs Four-seamer: .150

Opponents WOBA vs Sinker: .250

Opponents WOBA vs Sweeper: .621 

Slaten:

Opponents WOBA vs Four-seamer: .160

Opponents WOBA vs Cutter: .139

Opponents WOBA vs Curveball: .321

The league has made an adjustment to the Red Sox’s pitching philosophy. It’s time for the Red Sox to adjust back. 

3. Inexperience and youth coming into play

I believe this is the underrated storyline of the Red Sox season. Take a look, for example, at the Red Sox's lineup from May 25:

LF Jarren Duran (MLB Experience: 410 games)

DH Rafael Devers (MLB Experience: 1,038 games)

LF Wilyer Abreu (MLB Experience: 215 games)

C Carlos Narvaez (MLB Experience: 42 games)

2B Kristian Campbell (MLB Experience: 49 games)

SS Marcelo Mayer (MLB Experience: 5 games)

1B Abraham Toro (MLB Experience: 380 games)

PH Nick Sogard (MLB Experience: 45 games)

SS David Hamilton (MLB Experience: 33 games)

CF Ceddanne Rafaela (MLB Experience: 233 games)

That is seven out of ten players who appeared in a game with less than two years of MLB experience. It is really hard to win baseball games at the big league level when your lineup consists so heavily of players who are still in the beginning stages of learning the game. This inexperience shows itself not just in the silly baserunning mistakes or careless defensive errors, but in how they handle adversity. How many times this season has a bad loss spiraled into a three-or-four-game losing streak? How many times has a 0-for-4 day spiraled into a 2-for-20 stretch? How many times has a player pressed and expanded the zone in a key moment?

Take Abreu, for example. There is no question that Abreu is having a great season, as he currently possesses a .842 OPS while making massive strides in his strikeout and walk rates. He has also played a tremendous right field, already registered four Outs Above Average in just 55 games. At the same time, however, there are still plenty of signs of his inexperience:

• A .665 OPS with men on base compared to .998 with nobody on
• Dinstinct stretches of 6-for-44 (.136), 5-for-30 (.167), and 7-for-42 (.167)
• Four fielding errors (second-most among outfielders)

In many ways, Abreu's play this season is emblematic of the Red Sox as a whole. The talent is evident, and there are flashes of true stardom, but the struggles in big moments, the drastic ups-and-downs, and the careless errors have overshadowed much of the progress. 

Baseball is not like other sports. In football and basketball, you can draft a guy right out of college and have him be an All-Star or Pro Bowler right out of the gate. The making of a great baseball player takes time, and very few players are anything close to a finished product by the time they arrive in the major leagues. Headed into this season, we expected there to be a learning curve for guys like Campbell, Rafaela, and Abreu, but the injury to Bregman and the complete ineffectiveness of Story has led to an over-reliance on the young players and a spotlight being shown on their struggles. 

4. An organization that is failing to translate young talent into big league wins

It’s hard not to draw a contrast between the Red Sox and the Tigers, especially after watching the series a few weeks ago. Despite being every bit as young as the Red Sox, Detroit doesn't have the same issues as the Red Sox. While the Red Sox have made the second-most errors in the league, the Tigers have made the seventh-fewest. While the Red Sox are 6-15 in one-run games, the Tigers are 10-5. While the Red Sox have a .237 batting average and 24.4 strikeout rate with runners in scoring position, the Tigers have a .268 batting average and 20.4% strikeout rate. 

So no, youth cannot be the only explanation. There is something deeper going on, and it requires a serious evaluation of every aspect of the Red Sox organization. Are they preparing their prospects correctly to contribute at the big league level? Is their scouting department prioritizing the correct traits in players they acquire and draft? Is the current big league staff equipped for the development of talented but young players? 

Having six prospects in the MLB Top 100 is great, but it doesn’t mean anything if those players can’t successfully translate their talent into big league success. And yes, while the Red Sox have received major wins with the development of Duran, Abreu and others, the same issues continue to pop up again. The careless errors. The strikeouts. The lack of good situational baseball. 

At a certain point, you can’t just chalk everything up to inexperience. The Red Sox have spent four years trying to integrate young players into the big leagues, from Casas and Brayan Bello in 2022 to Rafaela and Abreu in 2023 to Campbell, Narvaez and Mayer this season, and they have still not been able to build a consistent winner. That begs the question as to whether the culture instilled at both the minor and major league level is ill-suited for success. 

Obviously, it’s still May, and I don’t believe we have seen the best of Campbell, Mayer and Roman Anthony. But, if the Red Sox continue to give away games and continue to play this brand of sloppy, undisciplined baseball, I think it’s fair to question whether a major organizational shift is needed, whether that be in philosophy or personnel.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

When your batting order doesn't follow fundamental rules of logic, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your manager makes mistakes all throughout the game, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your talent level of players allowed to play in the game is less than your opponents, one run games are much more difficult to win.

When Cora uses his best players and forgets about his biases and creates a line-up that makes sense, the one run games will start going our way.  If Duran leads off, Devers needs to hit 3rd.  Simple logic.  Today they face a RH pitcher so he stacked the line-up with righties at the bottom and lefties at the top, that's a rookie manager move but Cora has years of experience.  That means he's learned nothing from all the experience. 

As a game progresses your opponent can use either RH or LH pitchers.  Since the three-hitter rule was implemented, clustering one RH and LH hitters makes it much easier for the opposing manager to be most effective with his relievers.  You can call Cora unconventional in an attempt to cover-up the obvious that he's clueless but the results of his actions means losses.  Six years of losses!!! 

The reason the 2018 Red Sox did so well was their talent, since this team doesn't have anywhere near as much talent Cora can't just make a batting order that allows his favorites to bat more often.  He has to look at building a quality batting order that will take this team into the future.  Duran is the first lead-off hitter that has been good since Mookie.  He needs to bat there if he's hitting .220 or .320 because point in time averages like slumps or being hot should only apply to the bottom half of your order and right and left-handed hitters only matter after the type of hitter is identified.   The top four hitters should be your best hitters, and they can't include platoon guys like Abreu.  Duran, Bregman, Devers should be the order at the top.  The four hitter needs to be an RBI guy which means it's not Abreu because he's one of the least productive hitters on the team.  He hits well in non-clutch situation but 2024 resulted with 400 at bats and only 59 runs scored and 58 RBIs batting in the second spot in the line-up.  Rafaela hit 9th and put up 70 runs scored and 75 RBIs.  What's wrong with this picture?  The nine hitter is more productive than the 2 hitter.  That should send up a red flag that the hitters are poorly place in the order, but it didn't for the unknowledgeable manager.  He stuck with the guys he liked and ignored the stats.  

The way to win more one run games is to fire Cora and replace him with a real manager who understands the game, like a Bochy or a Dusty Baker.

[notin]

Torpedo bats!!

[notin]

30 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

When your batting order doesn't follow fundamental rules of logic, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your manager makes mistakes all throughout the game, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your talent level of players allowed to play in the game is less than your opponents, one run games are much more difficult to win.

When Cora uses his best players and forgets about his biases and creates a line-up that makes sense, the one run games will start going our way.  If Duran leads off, Devers needs to hit 3rd.  Simple logic.  Today they face a RH pitcher so he stacked the line-up with righties at the bottom and lefties at the top, that's a rookie manager move but Cora has years of experience.  That means he's learned nothing from all the experience. 

As a game progresses your opponent can use either RH or LH pitchers.  Since the three-hitter rule was implemented, clustering one RH and LH hitters makes it much easier for the opposing manager to be most effective with his relievers.  You can call Cora unconventional in an attempt to cover-up the obvious that he's clueless but the results of his actions means losses.  Six years of losses!!! 

The reason the 2018 Red Sox did so well was their talent, since this team doesn't have anywhere near as much talent Cora can't just make a batting order that allows his favorites to bat more often.  He has to look at building a quality batting order that will take this team into the future.  Duran is the first lead-off hitter that has been good since Mookie.  He needs to bat there if he's hitting .220 or .320 because point in time averages like slumps or being hot should only apply to the bottom half of your order and right and left-handed hitters only matter after the type of hitter is identified.   The top four hitters should be your best hitters, and they can't include platoon guys like Abreu.  Duran, Bregman, Devers should be the order at the top.  The four hitter needs to be an RBI guy which means it's not Abreu because he's one of the least productive hitters on the team.  He hits well in non-clutch situation but 2024 resulted with 400 at bats and only 59 runs scored and 58 RBIs batting in the second spot in the line-up.  Rafaela hit 9th and put up 70 runs scored and 75 RBIs.  What's wrong with this picture?  The nine hitter is more productive than the 2 hitter.  That should send up a red flag that the hitters are poorly place in the order, but it didn't for the unknowledgeable manager.  He stuck with the guys he liked and ignored the stats.  

The way to win more one run games is to fire Cora and replace him with a real manager who understands the game, like a Bochy or a Dusty Baker.

I’m not a Cora fan, but I have no issues with his adopting new logic for a batting order as opposed to Old School logic.

And to say Wilyer Abreu isn’t a RBI hitter might be a huge mistake.  He has an .802 OPS with men on base.  And rather than re-open clutch debates, acknowledge that Abreu’s .816 OPS in one run games is his highest for any score scenario…

[Deja Doh]

The problem is we have too many poor offensive players and a number of questionable defensive players.  After the slow start Devers seems to have suddenly become a more patient and selective hitter.  His OBP is over 0.400. 

But then look at Story (signed through 2028), Rafaela (how was he signed to 2032?), Casas, Hamilton, Toro, and Wong and they cannot get on base (all with OBP less than 0.300).  That's rather pathetic.  When we don't get on base we cannot win..

The offensive stats which really stand out in our hitting is Ks, GDP, and LOB.  We have the third most strikeouts in the MlB, behind the hapless Rockies and the Angels.  Another stat is how few times we've grounded into double plays (only the Royals have grounded into less).  And the big one is runners left on base where we lead the league. Those runners need to get home.  We need to hit the ball, not strike out.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

The problem is we have too many poor offensive players and a number of questionable defensive players.  After the slow start Devers seems to have suddenly become a more patient and selective hitter.  His OBP is over 0.400. 

But then look at Story (signed through 2028), Rafaela (how was he signed to 2032?), Casas, Hamilton, Toro, and Wong and they cannot get on base (all with OBP less than 0.300).  That's rather pathetic.  When we don't get on base we cannot win..

The offensive stats which really stand out in our hitting is Ks, GDP, and LOB.  We have the third most strikeouts in the MlB, behind the hapless Rockies and the Angels.  Another stat is how few times we've grounded into double plays (only the Royals have grounded into less).  And the big one is runners left on base where we lead the league. Those runners need to get home.  We need to hit the ball, not strike out.

Ye Sox are along the top teams in runs scored as it is, and among the leaders in LOB, which is always true for high scoring teams.  And also the leaders in LOB in games played as the only team playing their 61st game today,  and this boosts those cumulative totals.

The strikeout total is misleading.  The Sox lead MLB in games is a factor here as well.  They are tied for fourth in K% with Detroit, who is not exactly struggling.

I don’t consider the bench guys and injury replacement players to be st the root.  Toro, whom I originally railed but have been impressed with lately, isn't the problem.  Neither is Hamilton, who never plays.  Players like Story certainly are a big concern, especially with Bregman down.  Duran is also not the player he was last year.  Campbell is becoming a cause for concern, which is worrisome because Plans B and C are, in whatever order, Hamilton and Grissom…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Daniel, you could have ended the sentence in your article at 'awful.'

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not a Cora fan, but I have no issues with his adopting new logic for a batting order as opposed to Old School logic.

And to say Wilyer Abreu isn’t a RBI hitter might be a huge mistake.  He has an .802 OPS with men on base.  And rather than re-open clutch debates, acknowledge that Abreu’s .816 OPS in one run games is his highest for any score scenario…

Stats are fun to present because you can pick ones that support your argument.

Abreu under clutch stats - 2 outs RISP his average is .038!!!  That seems to contradict the .802 OPS.

According to Baseball Reference his OPS with 2 outs RISP is .321.  That tells a completely different story than the one you suggested.  All you have to do is find the right stat and you can make a player look at lot better than he actually is.

Now go to his LEVERAGE numbers and his average under HIGH LEVERAGE is .188.  A second stat that contradicts what you wrote.

Lets show one more example of not being clutch just for fun.

Abreu vs a SP in his first at bat is hitting .279 early in the game, his second at bat he's hitting .227 in the middle of the game and his 3rd at bat he's hitting .115 late in the game.

I've got nothing against Abreu except he can't hit lefties and he's not clutch.  He's a nice part time power hitter who belongs around the 7th spot in the order.  If you don't believe me look up 2024 and see how much Rafaela produced from the 9 spot as opposed to the platoon player in the 2 hole.  Flip in and I think the Red Sox win more games even with Rafaela's Ks last year.  I hope you've noted he's dramatically cut his Ks which means more production theoretically.  Too bad Cora disrespects him and pigeon-holed him into a 9 hitter.  I always thought Rafaela hitting after Duran would get him more fastballs, raise his average and increase his productivity but hey you have no issues with Cora-logic, the new way to building a batting order.  Why would 140 years of history be more correct than Cora!! 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

I've noticed a lot of player bashing in the above comments.  I think fans need to step back and consider the source of each player.  How many experienced professional hitters do we have:

1 - Bregman (OUT), 2 - Devers, 3 - Story, 4 - Yoshida

How many hitters have less than two years of experience that start?

1 - Rafaela, 2 - Abreu, 3 - Campbell, 4 - Mayer, 5 - Narvaez, 6 - Casas (OUT), 7 - the Bench

Seeing things broken out this way, why are expectations so high?

Story and Yoshida have not produced much so right now the first group is ONLY Devers.

The rest of the team is learning how to make adjustments as teams build books on how to pitch them.

Campbell was red hot to start the year and then went ice cold which is typical of year 1 players. The reaction by fans is sign him long-term when he's hot and put him back in AAA when he's cold.  Both are over-reactions.

Let him run the course of learning how to hit MLB pitchers.  It's not like Devers and Duran didn't go through the same struggles when they broke in.  About the only guy I can remember that didn't was Mookie.  So ease up on the criticism and let the players develop.  That's why Anthony should be up filling in at 1B so he moves down the hitting development chain sooner rather than later.  He can go back to OF defense and still be stellar at it in 2026.  He'll help the hitting more in 2026 if he gets his feet wet now.

Who cares if the back-ups that are playing too much because of Cora are doing good or bad, we aren't going anywhere now that Bregman is out and those players aren't going to start in 2026 so lets play the 2026 starters and let them go through the maturation cycle for hitting and defense.

 

[harmony]

The provided link to the "MLB Top 100" shows only three Red Sox prospects in the Top 100.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

[Maxbialystock]

7 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

When your batting order doesn't follow fundamental rules of logic, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your manager makes mistakes all throughout the game, one run games are much more difficult to win.  When your talent level of players allowed to play in the game is less than your opponents, one run games are much more difficult to win.

When Cora uses his best players and forgets about his biases and creates a line-up that makes sense, the one run games will start going our way.  If Duran leads off, Devers needs to hit 3rd.  Simple logic.  Today they face a RH pitcher so he stacked the line-up with righties at the bottom and lefties at the top, that's a rookie manager move but Cora has years of experience.  That means he's learned nothing from all the experience. 

As a game progresses your opponent can use either RH or LH pitchers.  Since the three-hitter rule was implemented, clustering one RH and LH hitters makes it much easier for the opposing manager to be most effective with his relievers.  You can call Cora unconventional in an attempt to cover-up the obvious that he's clueless but the results of his actions means losses.  Six years of losses!!! 

The reason the 2018 Red Sox did so well was their talent, since this team doesn't have anywhere near as much talent Cora can't just make a batting order that allows his favorites to bat more often.  He has to look at building a quality batting order that will take this team into the future.  Duran is the first lead-off hitter that has been good since Mookie.  He needs to bat there if he's hitting .220 or .320 because point in time averages like slumps or being hot should only apply to the bottom half of your order and right and left-handed hitters only matter after the type of hitter is identified.   The top four hitters should be your best hitters, and they can't include platoon guys like Abreu.  Duran, Bregman, Devers should be the order at the top.  The four hitter needs to be an RBI guy which means it's not Abreu because he's one of the least productive hitters on the team.  He hits well in non-clutch situation but 2024 resulted with 400 at bats and only 59 runs scored and 58 RBIs batting in the second spot in the line-up.  Rafaela hit 9th and put up 70 runs scored and 75 RBIs.  What's wrong with this picture?  The nine hitter is more productive than the 2 hitter.  That should send up a red flag that the hitters are poorly place in the order, but it didn't for the unknowledgeable manager.  He stuck with the guys he liked and ignored the stats.  

The way to win more one run games is to fire Cora and replace him with a real manager who understands the game, like a Bochy or a Dusty Baker.

You want to fire Cora because of the freaking batting orders?  You must be nuts.

For starters, the pitching is what's ranked 17th in MLB in team ERA while hitting is ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored.

Then there's the fact that Devers, batting 2d, is tied for the MLB lead in rbi's and has the best OPS of his career as the DH.  

As for those 1 run games, I think it's simply a matter of opposing teams rising to the occasion more often than our guys.  Forget late in the game, others have pointed out that we stink with RISP early and late.  Plus we are ranked 3d in strikeouts (by our hitters).  

And this.  Our recent 5 game losing streak was caused in part by the injury to Bregman.  I like Mayer a lot, but he sure ain't no Bregman.  At least not yet.  

While I don't fully agree with the OP, I do think one of our issues right now is inexperienced.  In today's game, for example, Cora started just two real veterans, Story and Devers, Story's OPS, season to date, is .603. 

The OP makes an interesting case about the pitching staff's preference for breaking balls--as dictated by the pitching.  To be honest, I favor breaking balls too, but the radio announcers keep reminding me that too often the breaking balls are in the middle of the zone and not breaking sharply. 

In a completely different sport, NCAA mens basketball, Ken Pomeroy has developed an off the wall stat he labels "luck."  It refers to close games of 1 or 2 points and a team with good "luck" wins those games more often and with bad "luck" loses them more often. 

That's kind of the way I see those 1 run games.  Some of it to me is luck.  But I agree some of it is malfeasance by our hitters and/or pitchers.   And some of that malfeasance is because of inexperience.   

 

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I've noticed a lot of player bashing in the above comments.  I think fans need to step back and consider the source of each player.  How many experienced professional hitters do we have:

1 - Bregman (OUT), 2 - Devers, 3 - Story, 4 - Yoshida

How many hitters have less than two years of experience that start?

1 - Rafaela, 2 - Abreu, 3 - Campbell, 4 - Mayer, 5 - Narvaez, 6 - Casas (OUT), 7 - the Bench

Seeing things broken out this way, why are expectations so high?

Story and Yoshida have not produced much so right now the first group is ONLY Devers.

The rest of the team is learning how to make adjustments as teams build books on how to pitch them.

Campbell was red hot to start the year and then went ice cold which is typical of year 1 players. The reaction by fans is sign him long-term when he's hot and put him back in AAA when he's cold.  Both are over-reactions.

Let him run the course of learning how to hit MLB pitchers.  It's not like Devers and Duran didn't go through the same struggles when they broke in.  About the only guy I can remember that didn't was Mookie.  So ease up on the criticism and let the players develop.  That's why Anthony should be up filling in at 1B so he moves down the hitting development chain sooner rather than later.  He can go back to OF defense and still be stellar at it in 2026.  He'll help the hitting more in 2026 if he gets his feet wet now.

Who cares if the back-ups that are playing too much because of Cora are doing good or bad, we aren't going anywhere now that Bregman is out and those players aren't going to start in 2026 so lets play the 2026 starters and let them go through the maturation cycle for hitting and defense.

 

Pretty good laydown, all in all.  Last paragraph/sentence is a doozy.  Best rationale yet for bringing up Anthony now.  I also like putting him at 1b.  

Interesting take on pitching coach's preference for breaking balls.  I agree with that prefence, but of course they have to be good breaking balls.  But I also like the notion of using heat more often.  

Uehara never had "heat," not when his fastest was about 88 mph.  Nevertheless he mixed that slow 4-seamer with the splitter and was devastating.   One of my favorites.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

You want to fire Cora because of the freaking batting orders?  You must be nuts.

For starters, the pitching is what's ranked 17th in MLB in team ERA while hitting is ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored.

Then there's the fact that Devers, batting 2d, is tied for the MLB lead in rbi's and has the best OPS of his career as the DH.  

As for those 1 run games, I think it's simply a matter of opposing teams rising to the occasion more often than our guys.  Forget late in the game, others have pointed out that we stink with RISP early and late.  Plus we are ranked 3d in strikeouts (by our hitters).  

And this.  Our recent 5 game losing streak was caused in part by the injury to Bregman.  I like Mayer a lot, but he sure ain't no Bregman.  At least not yet.  

While I don't fully agree with the OP, I do think one of our issues right now is inexperienced.  In today's game, for example, Cora started just two real veterans, Story and Devers, Story's OPS, season to date, is .603. 

The OP makes an interesting case about the pitching staff's preference for breaking balls--as dictated by the pitching.  To be honest, I favor breaking balls too, but the radio announcers keep reminding me that too often the breaking balls are in the middle of the zone and not breaking sharply. 

In a completely different sport, NCAA mens basketball, Ken Pomeroy has developed an off the wall stat he labels "luck."  It refers to close games of 1 or 2 points and a team with good "luck" wins those games more often and with bad "luck" loses them more often. 

That's kind of the way I see those 1 run games.  Some of it to me is luck.  But I agree some of it is malfeasance by our hitters and/or pitchers.   And some of that malfeasance is because of inexperience.   

 

I guess you haven't read many of my posts.  I have too many reasons to rehash here for firing Cora, the batting order is one small one he's done badly for 6 years.  I also don't care about the record this year since losing Bregman eliminated from any chance of making he playoffs based on how long he will be out.  What I care about is building the team for 2026 the proper way and it starts with losing Cora.  

The line-up next year is clear right now and Story should be moved to 3B so Mayer and Campbell can get used to handling the middle of the diamond.  For this year, we need Anthony to play 1B so he gets hitting time to move up the learning curve faster.  The rest of the defense is set with Abreu/Refsnyder in RF and Rafaela in CF and Duran in LF.  Narvaez needs to nearly all the catching since Wong was a one time wonder at hitting.  They'll need a new back-up in 2026.  

Cora needs to stop playing the scrubs and start playing the team of the future.  He needs a logical batting order that doesn't have players moving spots based on hot and cold because the pitching is going to take a pounding when Crochet, Buehler and Giolito aren't on the mound.  So let the hitters get comfortable with the order of the future.  I like Duran, Bregman (Campbell until Bregman returns), Devers, Narvaez (Campbell when Bregman returns), Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu/Refsnyder, Story (until Bregman returns) and Mayer.

That's a point in time suggestion.  As each of the young players learns to adapt to the oppositions book on them we may need to move them around a bit before committing to it at the start of 2026.  As far as the pitching goes, generalizations about what they should do are meaningless.  Each SP and RP needs the coaching staff to work with them define approaches that will work for them and then take it game by without a general plan, the plan needs to be specific to the game and the circumstances.

 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

The provided link to the "MLB Top 100" shows only three Red Sox prospects in the Top 100.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

MLB prospect ranking is not even in the top 3 of prospect rankings (BA, Law, FanGraphs).

[harmony]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

MLB prospect ranking is not even in the top 3 of prospect rankings (BA, Law, FanGraphs).

Regardless, the article provided the link to the MLB prospect ranking.

[Kimmi]

My thoughts on various points I've read in this thread:

1.  One-run games happen in so many ways.  Something as simple as a missed strike/ball call can affect the outcome of a 1-run game.  In close games, randomness overwhelms skill.

2.  Non-egregious changes in the batting order, for instance switching the #3 and #6 hitters, have little impact on run production.

3.  A manager's in-game decisions have very little impact on the outcome of a game.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 6/1/2025 at 3:29 PM, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I've noticed a lot of player bashing in the above comments.  I think fans need to step back and consider the source of each player.  How many experienced professional hitters do we have:

1 - Bregman (OUT), 2 - Devers, 3 - Story, 4 - Yoshida

How many hitters have less than two years of experience that start?

1 - Rafaela, 2 - Abreu, 3 - Campbell, 4 - Mayer, 5 - Narvaez, 6 - Casas (OUT), 7 - the Bench

Seeing things broken out this way, why are expectations so high?

Story and Yoshida have not produced much so right now the first group is ONLY Devers.

The rest of the team is learning how to make adjustments as teams build books on how to pitch them.

Campbell was red hot to start the year and then went ice cold which is typical of year 1 players. The reaction by fans is sign him long-term when he's hot and put him back in AAA when he's cold.  Both are over-reactions.

Let him run the course of learning how to hit MLB pitchers.  It's not like Devers and Duran didn't go through the same struggles when they broke in.  About the only guy I can remember that didn't was Mookie.  So ease up on the criticism and let the players develop.  That's why Anthony should be up filling in at 1B so he moves down the hitting development chain sooner rather than later.  He can go back to OF defense and still be stellar at it in 2026.  He'll help the hitting more in 2026 if he gets his feet wet now.

Who cares if the back-ups that are playing too much because of Cora are doing good or bad, we aren't going anywhere now that Bregman is out and those players aren't going to start in 2026 so lets play the 2026 starters and let them go through the maturation cycle for hitting and defense.

 

Tonight's 1 run loss is typical of the season: The batting order never makes sense, and the starting line-up never makes sense.  

Duran then Devers so back to back lefties.  With Duran just starting to hit how many RBIs have been missed out on in the 1st inning thanks to Cora?  Some folks point out that Devers is leading in RBIs and you have to ask yourself how that is possible?  Simple.  Rafaela seems to be on base a lot for Devers.  So why not bat him second and Devers 3rd.  Left-right-left and more runs scored in the first inning to start the game by being ahead! 

Also, Gonzalez and Toro in the line-up.  Why?  To rest Mayer?  He's played 8 games, how tired can he be? Since Casas went down we have used Gonzalez, Toro, Sogard and Wong at 1B in the 34 games.  They are bad Band-Aids.  To stay in the race, you get a real 1B and worry about the personnel after the season.  If you want to use a Band-Aid, have it mean something to the future of the club and use Anthony.  He doesn't have to play there long term, just for 2025 or if he's good at it, then maybe you deal Casas in the off season or keep him as quality depth because he's obviously better than the 3 amigos and Wong at 1B.  The line-up keeps this team from being competitive.  Mayer needs to play all but 1 game or 2 each month, not each week.  Who made the two errors tonight that cost us a run?  Toro and Gonzalez!!  Could it have been avoided with a real 1B or Anthony at 1B and Story at 3B while Bregman is out?  Maybe.  But since the two guys who made them are AAA players, why not use your best AAA player and your 4th pick in the draft instead of those two?  It makes no sense.  They are building the future at a snail's pace and are non-competitive at the same time!!

These are simply wasted games that don't go in the win column, that don't develop Mayer and Anthony and don't prepare the team for 2026.