The Red Sox Are Awful In One-Run Games. How Can They Fix It?

My old baseball coach used to say that the team that didn’t do the little things would lose 2-1.

Unsurprisingly, that is something that has come to my mind a lot while watching the 2025 Boston Red Sox, a team that, it feels like, will always find some way to lose. A runner stranded on second after a leadoff double. A throwing error that allows the winning run to move into scoring position. A leadoff walk to an eight-hole hitter that will inevitably come around to score. And so on and so forth.

Going 28-31 with 15 one-run losses seems almost unbelievable, but it’s the best way to sum up an underachieving team that doesn’t know how to close out games. Game after game after game, the Red Sox have come up a hair short, not because of talent, but because of a lack of execution. A lack of attention to detail. A mistake made in the sixth or seventh inning that comes around to burn them in the ninth. Take these games for example: 

April 9: Blue Jays 2, Red Sox 1 (Final/10)

After Greg Weissert pitched a scoreless 10th inning, the Red Sox had a prime chance to walk it off in the bottom of the tenth with the ghost runner on second and nobody out. Triston Casas did his job by moving the runner to third with a ground ball to second, leaving the winning run 90 feet away with Trevor Story coming to the plate. In what would be an unfortunate sign of things to come, Story would foul off two pitches over the heart of the plate before chasing a Jeff Hoffman slider well off the plate for strike three. After a Wilyer Abreu intentional walk, Kristian Campbell would also go down on strikes, blowing a golden opportunity to end the game right there. 

Despite this, the Red Sox still had an opportunity to win the game in the bottom of the 11th after Josh Winckowski held the Blue Jays to just one run in the top half. Yet once again, David Hamilton failed to advance the runner and Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran would go down easily to end a heartbreaking 2-1 final. 

April 12: White Sox 3, Red Sox 2

Holding a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning, what looked like an easy win was turned on its head when Richard Fitts had to exit with a pec injury. Zack Kelly promptly allowed a two-run home run to the second batter he faced, and the game would remain tied 2-2 heading into the ninth inning. Of course, the Red Sox blew an opportunity to take the lead in the seventh, when after a Ceddanne Rafaela single and stolen base put a runner on second base with nobody out, the top of the Red Sox order would go down in order without even moving Rafaela over 90 feet. 

Aroldis Chapman entered in the bottom of the ninth to try and send the game to extras, but things would escalate rather quickly, thanks to a leadoff walk to Luis Robert Jr., who had a measly .536 OPS even after his earlier homer. Robert would steal second off to the slow-to-the-plate Chapman, and Brooks Baldwin would win the game with a line drive down the left field line. 

April 26: Guardians 5, Red Sox 4

After scoring four runs in the first two-plus innings, the Red Sox went scoreless in the last seven frames, though they had plenty of chances. Alex Bregman followed Rafael Devers’ game-tying homer with a double in the third, but Story couldn’t advance the runner and went down on strikes. The Red Sox got the first two runners on in the fourth, but Rafaela flew out, Duran grounded out, and Devers flew out without even moving the runner to third. Finally, in the ninth, the Red Sox got the tying run to second base with nobody out, but a Devers lineout, a Bregman flyout, and a Story strikeout ended things rather quickly. 

It should be noted that the Guardians scored the go-ahead run on a Will Wilson hit-by-pitch (.533 OPS), an Angel Martinez should-be double play ball that glanced off Brennan Bernardino’s glove for a single, and a bloop single by Steven Kwan that glanced off Story’s outstretched glove. 

April 30: Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6

Trailing 6-0 in the sixth inning, the Blue Jays cut the deficit in half on a pair of home runs, and Anthony Santander tied the game on a three-run home run off a middle-middle, 2-0 Garrett Whitlock changeup. The Red Sox once again failed to move the ghost runner up in the top of the tenth, and the Blue Jays scored their ghost runner in the bottom half. 

May 1: Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 2 

With a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth, Justin Slaten hung a 1-2 sweeper to Bo Bichette (18th percentile chase rate) that was lifted deep to right field. Wilyer Abreu took a bad route, and the ball just glanced off his outstretched glove. Vladimir Guerrrero Jr. followed with a three-run home run, and that was that. 

May 3: Twins 4, Red Sox 3

With runners on first and second and one out in the eighth, Connor Wong negated what would have been a sure double steal with a foul ball. He grounded into a double play on the next pitch, and the Red Sox wouldn’t score in the bottom of the ninth. 

May 4: Twins 5, Red Sox 4

With a 3-1 lead in the top of the seventh, Whitlock walked Harrison Bader after being ahead 0-2, then threw a middle-middle slider to Ryan Jeffers with two outs and first base open that was rifled into the left-field corner for a game-tying two-run double. 

May 9: Royals 2, Red Sox 1

In a game where the Red Sox went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position, the Red Sox failed to advance the ghost runner in the 10th and 12th. The 10th inning was particularly costly, as Chapman would extend the game with a scoreless bottom half. Duran had an opportunity to end the game even earlier in the fifth but he struck out with Rafaela on third and one out against Michael Lorenzen (19% K rate).

May 13: Tigers 10, Red Sox 9

With two outs and a man on second in the sixth and possessing a 4-3 lead, Whitlock would hit Jace Jung (.111 hitter, since optioned to minors) and hang a sweeper to Javier Baez that was hammered for a three-run home run. Greg Weissert would do the same thing in the bottom of the tenth, leaving the Red Sox with a loss in a game they scored nine runs on 14 hits.

Oh, almost forgot. The Red Sox had a chance to extend their 4-3 lead in the top of the sixth with the bases loaded and one out, but both Rafaela and Duran struck out against Brant Hurter, whose fastball averages 92.2 miles per hour. 

May 14: Tigers 6, Red Sox 5

Trailing 5-2 in the top of the seventh, the Red Sox railed to tie the game against Tarik Skubal but failed to take the lead when Abreu grounded into a double play with one out and the bases loaded. The Red Sox would again have a chance to take the lead in the ninth inning but Rafael Devers struck out with first and third and one out. The game would be lost in the ninth inning when Chapman walked Andy Ibanez (.706 OPS), allowed him to steal second and advance to third on a Wong throwing error, and scored on a Justyn-Henry Malloy single. 

May 16: Braves 4, Red Sox 2

Despite facing a dominant Chris Sale, the Red Sox had multiple opportunities to break the game open against him. In the third inning, Bregman struck out looking with runners on first and third and one out, and Rafael Devers got caught stealing with lefty killer Rob Refsnyder up. In the sixth, Duran was caught stealing with Refsnyder up as the tying run, and he would lead off the seventh with a home run that cut the deficit in half. 

Trailing by one in the bottom of the eighth, the Red Sox got the tying run to second with nobody out, but Rafaela failed to advance him when he grounded out to short, and Duran and Devers would go down quietly.  Red Sox relievers would then walk five batters in the top of the ninth, including two with the bases loaded, preventing them from tying the game on a rare Story Single RBI single in the bottom of the ninth. 

May 24: Orioles 2, Red Sox 1

After getting shut out through the first seven innings, the Red Sox finally mustered a rally in the bottom of the eighth when Sogard led off with a single and Wong drew a walk to bring Rafaela to the plate with runners on first and second and nobody out. In an obvious bunt situation, Rafaela fouled off a pitch about two feet inside for strike one, then fouled off a bunt attempt for strike two. With the bunt now off, Rafaela chased a bad 0-2 pitch and lifted a lazy fly ball to right field that failed to advance the runners. Orioles reliever Seranthony Dominguez then struck out Duran and got Devers to pop up, squandering the Red Sox's only real rally of the game.

May 26: Brewers 3, Red Sox 2

After the Red Sox cut the Brewers lead in half with a run in the top of the eighth, Whitlock failed to produce a shutdown inning in the bottom of the eighth. With two outs and runners on the corners, Whitlock pitched around Caleb Durbin (.577 OPS) to load the bases, and Eric Hasse made him pay with a swinging bunt RBI single. The Red Sox would score another run in the top of the ninth, but Wong popped up with the bases loaded to end the game. 

May 27: Brewers 5, Red Sox 1 

After Aroldis Chapman blew his first save of the season, the Red Sox had an opportunity to blow the game open in the top of the 10th. With a first and third nobody out, Rafaela and Duran struck out and Devers flew out. The game was essentially at that point, but Christian Yelich provided the exclamation point with a walk-off grand slam. 

May 28: Brewers 6, Red Sox 5

The Red Sox had opportunities on both sides of the ball to prevent this game from going to extra innings. On offense, a careless mistake from Rafaela resulted in both him and Wong standing on third base and prevented a two-run rally from being even bigger. On defense, Duran couldn’t coral a sinker liner from Brice Turang, turning what should have been an inning-ending groundout from Jackson Chourio into an RBI. 

Despite these crucial mistakes, the Red Sox still could have won the game in the bottom of the tenth. Clinging to a one-run lead, Nick Sogard cut off a ground ball to second base rather than covering first, again turning what should have been the first out of the inning into a first and third, nobody out situation. The next batter hit a weak ground ball to Campbell, who made the decision to throw home even though the runner was probably safe anyway. The throw sailed wildly, allowing the winning run to advance to third with nobody out. Caleb Durbin followed with a sacrifice fly, finishing off the third devastating loss in three days. 

Wow. It’s hard to believe all those games occurred in just the first two months. In my opinion, the Red Sox's struggles in one-run games boil down to four key flaws: 

1. Too much swing-and-miss in the lineup

After finishing third in MLB in strikeouts in 2024, there was some optimism that the Red Sox would improve in the category in 2025 after swapping out Tyler O’Neill (33.6% K rate) for Bregman (13.6%). Yet, here we are at the end of May, and the Red Sox are once again third in the majors in strikeouts, and that’s even with Abreu and Rafaela making substantially more contact. Those changes, however, have been offset by the additions of Story (30%) and Campell (27%), leaving the Red Sox lineup just as whiff-prone as ever. 

The problem only grows worse in big moments. No team in baseball has struck out more with runners in scoring position than the Red Sox, who have fanned a whopping 154 times in 630 plate appearances. There have been so many times over these first two months where a Red Sox hitter has failed to put a ball in play at a time when a ground ball to the right side would suffice. When the margin of defeat has so often been one or two runs, this lack of situational hitting has frequently been the difference between wins and losses.

2. A group of relievers who are reluctant to attack with their fastball

Let’s take a look at some of the most disastrous pitches of the 2025 Red Sox season: 

• A hanging changeup by Whitlock to Santander (Game-tying three-run homer)
• A hanging sweeper by Slaten to Bichette (Double to move tying run to third)
• A hanging curve by Slaten to Guerrero (Three-run home run)
• A hanging sweeper by Whitlock to France (Game-tying two-run double)
• A hanging sweeper by Whitlock to Baez (Go-ahead homer)
• A hanging changeup by Weissert to Trey Sweeney (Game-tying single)
• A hanging sweeper by Weissert to Javy Baez (Walk-off homer)

Notice a pattern? The Red Sox have built a bullpen around relievers who rely on their secondary stuff over their fastball, and while the bullpen has mostly been effective this season, they have a terrible habit of throwing their worst breaking pitches at the worst possible time. 

It has been well known that the Andrew Bailey method utilizes more breaking pitches in favor of fastballs, and in year two of his tenure with the Red Sox, it feels like batters are beginning to catch on. They know these pitchers are going to get with their secondary pitches in big spots, and they have been ready for it. Take the Baez walk-off home run for example. You don’t put that good a swing on a first-pitch breaking ball unless you go up to the plate sitting on the pitch. 

If you are going to get beat, you want to get beat by your best pitch, and with Weissert and Slaten in particular, that just hasn’t been the case:

Weissert: 

Opponents WOBA vs Four-seamer: .150

Opponents WOBA vs Sinker: .250

Opponents WOBA vs Sweeper: .621 

Slaten:

Opponents WOBA vs Four-seamer: .160

Opponents WOBA vs Cutter: .139

Opponents WOBA vs Curveball: .321

The league has made an adjustment to the Red Sox’s pitching philosophy. It’s time for the Red Sox to adjust back. 

3. Inexperience and youth coming into play

I believe this is the underrated storyline of the Red Sox season. Take a look, for example, at the Red Sox's lineup from May 25:

LF Jarren Duran (MLB Experience: 410 games)

DH Rafael Devers (MLB Experience: 1,038 games)

LF Wilyer Abreu (MLB Experience: 215 games)

C Carlos Narvaez (MLB Experience: 42 games)

2B Kristian Campbell (MLB Experience: 49 games)

SS Marcelo Mayer (MLB Experience: 5 games)

1B Abraham Toro (MLB Experience: 380 games)

PH Nick Sogard (MLB Experience: 45 games)

SS David Hamilton (MLB Experience: 33 games)

CF Ceddanne Rafaela (MLB Experience: 233 games)

That is seven out of ten players who appeared in a game with less than two years of MLB experience. It is really hard to win baseball games at the big league level when your lineup consists so heavily of players who are still in the beginning stages of learning the game. This inexperience shows itself not just in the silly baserunning mistakes or careless defensive errors, but in how they handle adversity. How many times this season has a bad loss spiraled into a three-or-four-game losing streak? How many times has a 0-for-4 day spiraled into a 2-for-20 stretch? How many times has a player pressed and expanded the zone in a key moment?

Take Abreu, for example. There is no question that Abreu is having a great season, as he currently possesses a .842 OPS while making massive strides in his strikeout and walk rates. He has also played a tremendous right field, already registered four Outs Above Average in just 55 games. At the same time, however, there are still plenty of signs of his inexperience:

• A .665 OPS with men on base compared to .998 with nobody on
• Dinstinct stretches of 6-for-44 (.136), 5-for-30 (.167), and 7-for-42 (.167)
• Four fielding errors (second-most among outfielders)

In many ways, Abreu's play this season is emblematic of the Red Sox as a whole. The talent is evident, and there are flashes of true stardom, but the struggles in big moments, the drastic ups-and-downs, and the careless errors have overshadowed much of the progress. 

Baseball is not like other sports. In football and basketball, you can draft a guy right out of college and have him be an All-Star or Pro Bowler right out of the gate. The making of a great baseball player takes time, and very few players are anything close to a finished product by the time they arrive in the major leagues. Headed into this season, we expected there to be a learning curve for guys like Campbell, Rafaela, and Abreu, but the injury to Bregman and the complete ineffectiveness of Story has led to an over-reliance on the young players and a spotlight being shown on their struggles. 

4. An organization that is failing to translate young talent into big league wins

It’s hard not to draw a contrast between the Red Sox and the Tigers, especially after watching the series a few weeks ago. Despite being every bit as young as the Red Sox, Detroit doesn't have the same issues as the Red Sox. While the Red Sox have made the second-most errors in the league, the Tigers have made the seventh-fewest. While the Red Sox are 6-15 in one-run games, the Tigers are 10-5. While the Red Sox have a .237 batting average and 24.4 strikeout rate with runners in scoring position, the Tigers have a .268 batting average and 20.4% strikeout rate. 

So no, youth cannot be the only explanation. There is something deeper going on, and it requires a serious evaluation of every aspect of the Red Sox organization. Are they preparing their prospects correctly to contribute at the big league level? Is their scouting department prioritizing the correct traits in players they acquire and draft? Is the current big league staff equipped for the development of talented but young players? 

Having six prospects in the MLB Top 100 is great, but it doesn’t mean anything if those players can’t successfully translate their talent into big league success. And yes, while the Red Sox have received major wins with the development of Duran, Abreu and others, the same issues continue to pop up again. The careless errors. The strikeouts. The lack of good situational baseball. 

At a certain point, you can’t just chalk everything up to inexperience. The Red Sox have spent four years trying to integrate young players into the big leagues, from Casas and Brayan Bello in 2022 to Rafaela and Abreu in 2023 to Campbell, Narvaez and Mayer this season, and they have still not been able to build a consistent winner. That begs the question as to whether the culture instilled at both the minor and major league level is ill-suited for success. 

Obviously, it’s still May, and I don’t believe we have seen the best of Campbell, Mayer and Roman Anthony. But, if the Red Sox continue to give away games and continue to play this brand of sloppy, undisciplined baseball, I think it’s fair to question whether a major organizational shift is needed, whether that be in philosophy or personnel.