Article: The Red Sox Lead the League in 3-Run Homers. Does That Matter?

[Adam Morgan]

Red Sox announcers and the team’s social media pages have been quick to point out that Boston leads all of baseball in three-run home runs with 11. In second place is a four-way tie with six three-run home runs between the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, and Cubs. It is a fun statistic, but does it actually matter?

To determine this, I decided to look at what teams lead the league in three-run home runs and what were their ultimate fates. For example: In 2024, the Yankees lead the league in three-run home runs. We know that the Yankees made it to the World Series, where they ultimately lost to the Dodgers. The Dodgers were tied for fifth most three-run dingers last year.

Since 2000, only three teams have led the league in three-run home runs and won the World Series: the 2019 Nationals, the 2009 Yankees, and the 2004 Red Sox. 2004 was not the only time Boston has led the league in 3-run home runs. They also paced the pack in 2021, when they lost in the ALCS.

Losing in the playoffs has been the most likely outcome for teams leading the league in three-run home runs. Of the 31 teams that have led or been tied for the lead since 2000, 21 have made the playoffs. That is roughly 68% of teams.

More interesting are the teams that didn’t make the playoffs while leading the league in three-run homers. Most of those squads were pretty good, but there are some outliers. In 2022, the Phillies tied for the league lead in three-run home runs. The Phillies famously lost in the World Series that year. Who did they tie with for the lead? The Colorado Rockies, who finished in last place in the NL West. Similarly, the 2003 leader was the Texas Rangers, who finished in last place in the AL West that season.

So, what does all this mean? Well, in terms of replicability, not much. You can't really build your team around the skill of hitting three-run homers.

You can, however, build your team around a set of skills that would aid in giving them plenty of chances to hit three-run home runs. Such a team would need to be particularly good at getting on base, as well as hitting with runners in scoring position and hitting, well, home runs. Turns out, the Red Sox are pretty darn good at all of those things. Through April 30, they rank sixth in MLB in team-wide on-base percentage (.334), ninth in batting average with RISP (.253), and eighth in home runs (38). Those are important skills to building a winning team.

I doubt the Red Sox will finish in last place this season, but I am not sure they will lead the league in three-run bombs either. Through 30 games, they were on pace to have 59 three-run jacks. The most any team has hit in a single season was 40 by the 2015 Yankees. It would be nice to supplant the Bronx Bombers atop that list, but every indication is that there will be some regression to the mean. Then again, Boston’s offense appears to be clicking right now, so maybe they can stockpile some three-run round-trippers before the dog days of summer really hit.

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[TheSplinteredSplendor]

No, it doesn't matter at all.

[mvp 78]

Is that Verdugo? Eww! 

[jdc69]

I mean, it's better than not leading the league in them. You have people getting on base, and then you have people driving them in with home runs. Whats not to like? I think the important thing is when they do stuff. 

[moonslav59]

This totally blows up a few posters' narratives.

[Kimmi]

The real question is, when will the Red Sox hit their next grand slam.  If I'm not mistaken, the last one was on August 7, 2023 by Pablo Reyes.

 

[jdc69]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

The real question is, when will the Red Sox hit their next grand slam.  If I'm not mistaken, the last one was on August 7, 2023 by Pablo Reyes.

 

That's absolutely nuts. The difference between a 2 to a 3 run home run seems light years away, or is that just the Red Sox these days? 

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, jdc69 said:

That's absolutely nuts. The difference between a 2 to a 3 run home run seems light years away, or is that just the Red Sox these days? 

Not only did we not hit a grand slam last year, but we also gave up the most in the league (9), including one to our nemesis, the White Sox.  LOL

Meanwhile, the DBacks hit 11 last year.