Article: Projecting the 2025 Red Sox Opening Day Roster, Version 1.0

[Alex Mayes]

The moves came quickly for the Red Sox in December and there's a very strong argument to be made that the team is in a much better position now than they were heading into the 2024 season. Let's take a quick look at the January projections before any other changes happen. 

There’s a lot to be excited about in 2025 for the Red Sox, but there are still some question marks and a couple of holes that need to be filled. Let’s get started by looking at the players on the team as of today.

Lineup

1. Jarren Duran, CF
2. Rafael Devers, 3B
3. Trevor Story, SS
4. Triston Casas, 1B
5. Masataka Yoshida, DH
6. Wilyer Abreu, RF
7. Connor Wong, C
8. Kristian Campbell, 2B
9. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF

That’s right, I have Kristian Campbell breaking camp with the big league club. I fully believe that entering camp there will be a competition for the second base position between Campbell and Vaughn Grissom, and Campbell will light spring training on fire so thoroughly that the Red Sox have to start him on Opening Day. He will hit low in the lineup, at first, to ease him into the big leagues, but as his bat comes around he will move higher into the lineup later in the season. Trevor Story hitting third in the lineup doesn’t serve as protection for Rafael Devers at first, but as long as he stays healthy then his righty swing will end up benefiting Devers in the long run.  

Bench

• Carlos Narváez, C
• Vaughn Grissom, Util
• David Hamilton, Util
• Romy Gonzalez, Util 

That’s a lot of utility players, but in modern baseball, that’s what your bench should be stocked with. Carlos Narváez will back up Connor Wong and spell him during slumps, but he’s here for his defense and not his bat. When there’s speed on the bases late in games, Alex Cora is bound to swap catchers to give his team a better chance to get outs on the basepaths. Vaughn Grissom has played second and shortstop but should be looked at as someone who can slot into third base at times and my assumption is we will see him get some time in left field during spring training to make him more of a utility type of player. David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez can play all over the infield and add another burst of speed coming off the bench when necessary.

Starting Rotation

1. Garrett Crochet, LHP
2. Tanner Houck, RHP
3. Brayan Bello, RHP
4. Walker Buehler, RHP
5. Kutter Crawford, RHP
6. Lucas Giolito, RHP

While there’s talk of a six-man rotation, including from Craig Breslow himself, I don’t expect that to actually happen with any regularity. There may be some long stretches without off days where the Sox go to a sixth starter to give everyone an extra day of rest, especially considering that three of the six starters are likely to have some kind of leash on them as they return to form. Still, I actually think Kutter Crawford is the odd man out here. When push comes to shove, Lucas Giolito was brought here to start and if the Red Sox go with a five-man rotation, Crawford seems the obvious candidate to head to the bullpen. There could be an argument to be made for Brayan Bello to be that guy, but Boston didn’t give him an extension and hand him the ball to start the season in 2024 for him to be relegated to the bullpen already. 

Bullpen

• Liam Hendriks, RHP
• Aroldis Chapman, LHP
• Justin Slaten, RHP
• Garrett Whitlock, RHP
• Justin Slaten, RHP
• Justin Wilson, LHP
• Luis Guerrero, RHP

The bullpen is still probably the shakiest group on the roster. The team needs one more big-time, high-leverage type arm to help replace Chris Martin and Kenley Janson. Luckily, there is quite a bit to like about what we’re already seeing though. Liam Hendriks is likely your Opening Day closer because the organization thinks highly of him and that’s his natural position, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if that spot went to someone else by the end of May. Justin Slaten seems primed to take over the closer role at some point, and that seems to be the safer long-term move. Chapman should work as the seventh or eighth-inning setup man, Whitlock will be used as long relief, Guerrero showed enough at the end of last season to be trusted to get outs, and Wilson will work as a left-handed specialist when needed. There’s a lot of like in the bullpen, but additions will help to shore up the 'pen and help to settle the fanbase.

We’ll have more roster projections as the offseason continues to unfold, so keep an eye out for them. For now though, what are your thoughts as the team currently stands? Should Grissom get the nod over Campbell? Does Roman Anthony deserve to break camp with the big league club too? Let us know.

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[moonslav59]

Refsnyder will be on the 26, probably instead of Grissom or DHam, since Romy can play 1B and OF. No mention of Ref, at all. He's a top 12 batter in MLB vs LHPs on a team hurting for good RHBs.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Refsnyder will be on the 26, probably instead of Grissom or DHam, since Romy can play 1B and OF. No mention of Ref, at all. He's a top 12 batter in MLB vs LHPs on a team hurting for good RHBs.

And the Sox exercised his 2025 option at a little over $2 million.  He's definitely in the plans.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the Sox exercised his 2025 option at a little over $2 million.  He's definitely in the plans.

He has no options remaining, too.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Refsnyder will be on the 26, probably instead of Grissom or DHam, since Romy can play 1B and OF. No mention of Ref, at all. He's a top 12 batter in MLB vs LHPs on a team hurting for good RHBs.

Yeah, Romy isn't really great in the OF. It doesn't make much sense to have Romy, Grissom and Hamilton on the bench at the same time as they all serve the same purpose. 

[mvp 78]

Feel free to dogpile/pigpile (whichever is your preference) on Alex as he stated on the podcast that he typically doesn't add to the "engagement" unless it gets on the larger side. Maybe we can shame him into justifying his hatred of Rob Refsnyder. I'm sure Vaughn Grissom and his 81 career OPS+ and horrible defense is a better fit for the team than a guy who has had a 119 OPS+ while with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

I think Campbell & Anthony begin the season in AAA, unless there is an injury.

This what I think Brez & Cora select for the 26:

1. Duran LF/CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida DH

6. Abreu RF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L

7. DHam v R/ Grissom platoon 2B

8. Wong- Narvaez

9. Rafaela CF/RF

Utility: Romy

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock (if not on IL) Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero

 

[moonslav59]

Slaten is listed twice. I think he meant Winckowski for the other slot.

[Alex Mayes]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to dogpile/pigpile (whichever is your preference) on Alex as he stated on the podcast that he typically doesn't add to the "engagement" unless it gets on the larger side. Maybe we can shame him into justifying his hatred of Rob Refsnyder. I'm sure Vaughn Grissom and his 81 career OPS+ and horrible defense is a better fit for the team than a guy who has had a 119 OPS+ while with the Sox.

No hatred for Rob at all. I actually like him as a player but I went with Gonzalez and Grissom on the bench because it wouldn't shock me for Grissom to get looks in the outfield as they try and find a role for him and I like the flexibility Gonzalez brings to the infield mix along with Hamilton. If the Sox keep Wilyer and Anthony ends up getting called up early in the season or possibly breaking camp with the big league club, Refsnyder is the odd man out. 

[Alex Mayes]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Slaten is listed twice. I think he meant Winckowski for the other slot.

You're correct. My fingers get going faster than my eyes sometimes. Thanks for catching that. 

[Alex Mayes]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to dogpile/pigpile (whichever is your preference) on Alex as he stated on the podcast that he typically doesn't add to the "engagement" unless it gets on the larger side. Maybe we can shame him into justifying his hatred of Rob Refsnyder. I'm sure Vaughn Grissom and his 81 career OPS+ and horrible defense is a better fit for the team than a guy who has had a 119 OPS+ while with the Sox.

Also, thanks for listening to the pod! Hope you're enjoying it. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's no hatred... except maybe for a rich org that we all suspect will definitely keep a guy like Ref around, just for the fact his contract is such a bargain for an established big leaguer.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

No hatred for Rob at all. I actually like him as a player but I went with Gonzalez and Grissom on the bench because it wouldn't shock me for Grissom to get looks in the outfield as they try and find a role for him and I like the flexibility Gonzalez brings to the infield mix along with Hamilton. If the Sox keep Wilyer and Anthony ends up getting called up early in the season or possibly breaking camp with the big league club, Refsnyder is the odd man out. 

I think Alex Cora would collapse in a pool of tears if they take the Refsnyder Lefty-Masher Option away from him.  

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

No hatred for Rob at all. I actually like him as a player but I went with Gonzalez and Grissom on the bench because it wouldn't shock me for Grissom to get looks in the outfield as they try and find a role for him and I like the flexibility Gonzalez brings to the infield mix along with Hamilton. If the Sox keep Wilyer and Anthony ends up getting called up early in the season or possibly breaking camp with the big league club, Refsnyder is the odd man out. 

Grissom has zero innings played in the OF in his professional career. Hamilton has 69. That bench is not suitable for an MLB roster IMO. I'd dump Hamilton or Romy before Refsnyder if they want to compete. It makes no sense to get rid of the one guy who mashes LHP and keep two weak defense MIFers (Hamilton and Grissom) or a guy DFA'd by the 2024 ChiSox (Romy). 

I know we all love to get behind the 26th guy on the roster, but the love for Romy is a little ridiculous. If they DFA'd him, there's a good chance he'd pass through waivers. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

Also, thanks for listening to the pod! Hope you're enjoying it. 

For only being the third pod together, it's already better than a lot of other Sox podcasts that are out there. 

[Alex Mayes]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For only being the third pod together, it's already better than a lot of other Sox podcasts that are out there. 

Really appreciate the kind words. We're working hard to carve out our own space in the Sox podcast world. 

[mvp 78]

I would keep Refsnyder over Grissom 1,000,000%. Grissom notably struggles to elevate the ball. 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Grissom has zero innings played in the OF in his professional career. Hamilton has 69. That bench is not suitable for an MLB roster IMO. I'd dump Hamilton or Romy before Refsnyder if they want to compete. It makes no sense to get rid of the one guy who mashes LHP and keep two weak defense MIFers (Hamilton and Grissom) or a guy DFA'd by the 2024 ChiSox (Romy). 

I know we all love to get behind the 26th guy on the roster, but the love for Romy is a little ridiculous. If they DFA'd him, there's a good chance he'd pass through waivers. 

I guess Wong could play 1B, in a pinch, but Romy is the only one from DHam and Grissom that can. He's also a better defender than those two at SS.

I'm not loving on Romy as much as I've soured on Grissom. 

DHam is fine on defense at 2B and hits RHPs, pretty well. His speed gives him the edge, to me, as #26.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess Wong could play 1B, in a pinch, but Romy is the only one from DHam and Grissom that can. He's also a better defender than those two at SS.

I'm not loving on Romy as much as I've soured on Grissom. 

DHam is fine on defense at 2B and hits RHPs, pretty well. His speed gives him the edge, to me, as #26.

You'd have Hamilton and Romy ahead of Refsnyder then? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You'd have Hamilton and Romy ahead of Refsnyder then? 

I have a 2B platoon and a LF/DH platoon, so Ref (LF or DH) and Romy (or Grissom- I'm not tied to either) and Abreu (RF) or Yoshida (DH) are on the long-side platoon. I'm not sure any are "ahead" of the others. All have a starter role beyond being a sub, when not starting. The other slots go to Narvaez (C) and whoever loses out on the 2B platoon w DHam: Grissom or Romy.

My roster is listed above. Ref is on my 26 and is not #26 or #25, as Grissom and Romy are below him and sort of duplicated values. If Grissom wins the 2B job, outright, as some suggest he might or will, and there is no platoon, I'd keep Ref over DHam, as well.

Until Campbell wins the 2B job, I like DHam more than Grissom & Romy, and he's needed at 2B, whereas I guess Ref is not technically need as a platoon. I do NOT want Abreu starting vs LHPs with a .514 OPS. Ref is essential for that, where as DHam is only "essential," if he turns out to be our best 2Bman, until KC arrives.