Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Did he really sit all that often vs LHP?  108 of his 421 PAs were against LHP.  That means 30.8% of his PA were against LHP, which is almost identical to Duran (31.2%).  And Duran was rarely benched vs anyone…

Math check:

108/421 = 25.6%  

Case closed!

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Math check:

108/421 = 25.6%  

Case closed!

Ok bad math on my part.  No idea what I typed in.

But case closed?  Getting desperate to be correct here?  The difference is about 4 games worth of plate appearances.  Players who are platooned don’t sit out only 4 games…

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok bad math on my part.  No idea what I typed in.

But case closed?  Getting desperate to be correct here?  The difference is about 4 games worth of plate appearances.  Players who are platooned don’t sit out only 4 games…

You just refuse to try to get the simple point.  I never said platooned.  I said Cora clearly gave him some extra days off against lefties.  Because he was horrific against lefties in 2024.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No it isn't. 

It's not complicated. I said Cora sat him against some lefties.  It was disproportionate to the number of righties he sat against.  mvp found those 4 LH sits and 2 RH sits numbers.   

Cora has done the same with other hitters who are struggling against lefties.  Like Duran in the first part of 2023.  You don't sit them all the time against lefties if there's hope for improvement.

Abreu was the guy pretty much in a straight platoon this year.  

Abreu:

104 GS against RHP

6 GS against LHP

😩

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

No no no!!  We have add a lot more to the trade, but I think it is doable if we find the right pieces 

Just curious on why you think SFG would be willing to take on Yoshida's contract more than some other team.

Robbie Ray is owed $23M x 2, so maybe taking him back would make a deal more balanced, but I'm still not sure why they want Yoshi.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just curious on why you think SFG would be willing to take on Yoshida's contract more than some other team.

Robbie Ray is owed $23M x 2, so maybe taking him back would make a deal more balanced, but I'm still not sure why they want Yoshi.

After all the facts we've gone through, I think the only rational position is that some teams would take Yoshida at a cost of about $5 million a year, max. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

After all the facts we've gone through, I think the only rational position is that some teams would take Yoshida at a cost of about $5 million a year, max. 

That's how I see it. Yoshida is owed $54M/3. R Ray is owed $46M/3. The difference is about $12M/3 or $4M a year. Throw in a blocked player like EValdez or Sogard, and maybe SF does it.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu:

104 GS against RHP

6 GS against LHP

😩

Without looking into it, I bet some of those 6 were openers…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. Yoshida is owed $54M/3. R Ray is owed $46M/3. The difference is about $12M/3 or $4M a year. Throw in a blocked player like EValdez or Sogard, and maybe SF does it.

It’s a safe bet SF has plenty of players equal to Valdez and Sogard, and might be reluctant to waste valuable 40 man roster spots on the redundancy.

Other than Larry’s pipe dream, is there any reason SF would be interested in Yoshida? They likely view Ray as the more valuable contract.  And they have internal options at DH…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a safe bet SF has plenty of players equal to Valdez and Sogard, and might be reluctant to waste valuable 40 man roster spots on the redundancy.

Other than Larry’s pipe dream, is there any reason SF would be interested in Yoshida? They likely view Ray as the more valuable contract.  And they have internal options at DH…

Agreed, more likely, they'd only do this deal, if we included someone like Abreu or a non-40man guys like Meidroth, Arias, Cespedes or Dobbins (Rule 5).

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, more likely, they'd only do this deal, if we included someone like Abreu or a non-40man guys like Meidroth, Arias, Cespedes or Dobbins (Rule 5).

BTV tells us Ray’s contract is a bigger albatross than Yoshida’s.  But SF needs SP more than DHs.

Yoshida actually matches up nicely with Jordan Hicks on that site, and I noticed Hicks was bumped out of the rotation at the end of the season.  Of course, one Google search later and I learned Hicks was bumped because of a team-imposed innings limit, not due to performance.  
 

The bottom line to me is if you hate Yoshida’s contract, why do we think it can be dealt for another contract we don’t hate?  There are absolutely worse contracts out there.  Some even belonging to contributing players.  But what team could use Yoshida?  I don’t think SF is the right fit from a baseball standpoint…

[harmony]

Some blogs are cringe-worthy:

https://sodomojo.com/mariners-might-have-perfect-buy-low-trade-candidate-if-red-sox-are-willing-to-deal-01jag9y1wms8

☹️☹️☹️

[notin]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

Some blogs are cringe-worthy:

https://sodomojo.com/mariners-might-have-perfect-buy-low-trade-candidate-if-red-sox-are-willing-to-deal-01jag9y1wms8

☹️☹️☹️

BTV says Yoshida  + $13mill for Mitch Garver is a fair deal.  And it’s one that could make sense for both teams.  But I imagine the uncertainty with Yoshida’s shoulder surgery complicates things…

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV tells us Ray’s contract is a bigger albatross than Yoshida’s.  But SF needs SP more than DHs.

Yoshida actually matches up nicely with Jordan Hicks on that site, and I noticed Hicks was bumped out of the rotation at the end of the season.  Of course, one Google search later and I learned Hicks was bumped because of a team-imposed innings limit, not due to performance.  
 

The bottom line to me is if you hate Yoshida’s contract, why do we think it can be dealt for another contract we don’t hate?  There are absolutely worse contracts out there.  Some even belonging to contributing players.  But what team could use Yoshida?  I don’t think SF is the right fit from a baseball standpoint…

I'm thinking I'd prefer a contract I hate as much as Yoshida, but it being for a pitcher with some hope of a redemption.

I fully realize other teams prefer pitchers to DHs, and so that is why the pot would need to be sweetened for them by adding more money than to balance it out or by adding a promising player or prospect they like.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV says Yoshida  + $13mill for Mitch Garver is a fair deal.  And it’s one that could make sense for both teams.  But I imagine the uncertainty with Yoshida’s shoulder surgery complicates things…

If he could still catch, maybe.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If he could still catch, maybe.

Garver should never catch again.  Ever.  He’s bad at it.

 

But he hits lefties well and has hit well at Fenway through his career.  And if he does continue to stink, he’s only on a one year deal right now…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Garver should never catch again.  Ever.  He’s bad at it.

 

But he hits lefties well and has hit well at Fenway through his career.  And if he does continue to stink, he’s only on a one year deal right now…

We have Refsnyder, who is a top 25 batter vs LHPs, and also should never play in the OF, again.

Besides the idea of a Casas-Devers DH/1B, I'd almost be as happy with an E Valdez-Ref polatoon at DH than Yoshida or Garver. Maybe a DHam-Ref DH platoon could match a FT Yoshida's numbers.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have Refsnyder, who is a top 25 batter vs LHPs, and also should never play in the OF, again.

Besides the idea of a Casas-Devers DH/1B, I'd almost be as happy with an E Valdez-Ref polatoon at DH than Yoshida or Garver. Maybe a DHam-Ref DH platoon could match a FT Yoshida's numbers.

A Casas/Devers 1b solution would be ideal, but we both know it’s a long shot, and that’s the optimistic viewpoint.  Plus it probably only happens if the Sox sign the loathsome Alex Bregman.

And Garver is only one year removed from an OPS+ of 138.   He does have a bizarre tendency to keep his OPS+ north of 130 in odd-numbered years and south of 100 in even-numbered ones.  Not sure why.  But if he can keep that trend going for one more year.

And if Seattle really does think Yoshida is a viable buy-low solution, Garver is probably on the short list of potentially useful players the Sox can get back for him.  And certainly carries the lowest risk of any of them.

Valdez is a bad choice for strong side DH.  He’s a streaky hitter prone to long slumps, and if the Sox only carry 4 bench players (3 non-catchers), dedicating a spot to a backup DH is unwise.

Plus I suspect if Abreu is here, Refsnyder will remain in his platoon role.  His UZR numbers are awful, but he’s roughly average in DRS and OAA.  And I’m sure that’s enough for Cora and his frequent disregard for defense to trot Refsnyder out to RF vs LHP.  

 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Some blogs are cringe-worthy:

https://sodomojo.com/mariners-might-have-perfect-buy-low-trade-candidate-if-red-sox-are-willing-to-deal-01jag9y1wms8

☹️☹️☹️

😍

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have Refsnyder, who is a top 25 batter vs LHPs, and also should never play in the OF, again.

Besides the idea of a Casas-Devers DH/1B, I'd almost be as happy with an E Valdez-Ref polatoon at DH than Yoshida or Garver. Maybe a DHam-Ref DH platoon could match a FT Yoshida's numbers.

I wouldn't worry about replacing Masa with an external option considering the internal bats that will be supplementing the roster next year. I'd do a straight salary dump and eat half the contract. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

A Casas/Devers 1b solution would be ideal, but we both know it’s a long shot, and that’s the optimistic viewpoint.  Plus it probably only happens if the Sox sign the loathsome Alex Bregman.

And Garver is only one year removed from an OPS+ of 138.   He does have a bizarre tendency to keep his OPS+ north of 130 in odd-numbered years and south of 100 in even-numbered ones.  Not sure why.  But if he can keep that trend going for one more year.

And if Seattle really does think Yoshida is a viable buy-low solution, Garver is probably on the short list of potentially useful players the Sox can get back for him.  And certainly carries the lowest risk of any of them.

Valdez is a bad choice for strong side DH.  He’s a streaky hitter prone to long slumps, and if the Sox only carry 4 bench players (3 non-catchers), dedicating a spot to a backup DH is unwise.

Plus I suspect if Abreu is here, Refsnyder will remain in his platoon role.  His UZR numbers are awful, but he’s roughly average in DRS and OAA.  And I’m sure that’s enough for Cora and his frequent disregard for defense to trot Refsnyder out to RF vs LHP.  

 

 

I'm not thrilled with E Valdez at DH, but if he played vs all RHPs, he'd have more PAs than Ref and many other subs. My point was that even if we step down from Yoshida to an EValdez-Ref platoon, I don't see a big drop-off, and the odds EValdez hits as well as Garver in 2025 are probably close to 50-50. He's much cheaper.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't worry about replacing Masa with an external option considering the internal bats that will be supplementing the roster next year. I'd do a straight salary dump and eat half the contract. 

Agreed. I don't want to dump Yoshida for another DH.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not thrilled with E Valdez at DH, but if he played vs all RHPs, he'd have more PAs than Ref and many other subs. My point was that even if we step down from Yoshida to an EValdez-Ref platoon, I don't see a big drop-off, and the odds EValdez hits as well as Garver in 2025 are probably close to 50-50. He's much cheaper.

If Plan B is Valdez, just keep Yoshida.  At least his late season collapse might be related to a shoulder injury.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't worry about replacing Masa with an external option considering the internal bats that will be supplementing the roster next year. I'd do a straight salary dump and eat half the contract. 

How much of a salary dump is it if the Sox are still paying?  And who are all these internal options?

If the plan is to pay for the bulk of Yoshida only to give more playing time to someone who spent last year behind Yoshida, I’m not sure what the benefit is.  Especially since I have my doubts about Henry spending the savings on a decent solution to fill a need…

[harmony]

4 hours ago, notin said:

BTV says Yoshida  + $13mill for Mitch Garver is a fair deal.  And it’s one that could make sense for both teams.  But I imagine the uncertainty with Yoshida’s shoulder surgery complicates 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

If Plan B is Valdez, just keep Yoshida.  At least his late season collapse might be related to a shoulder injury.

I doubt he's even plan B or C. I'm just saying that to show how little we need Yoshida, if he's not much of a drop off. (It also shows how little other teams want him.)

BTW, Valdez has a career .743 OPS vs RHPs, out of the gate. He was a really good hitter in the minors. A platoon between him and Ref could very likely top Yoshida's career OPS of .775 or his .765 2024 OPS.

I'd rather have a young bat or rotate the DH as plan B.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If Plan B is Valdez, just keep Yoshida.  At least his late season collapse might be related to a shoulder injury.

I've said keeping him and hoping he improves is our best bet.

I do think we should seek out any takers, but paying all but $4-5M is not really worth it, to me. I'd rather bank on Yoshi doing well.

Now, if we can get a pitchers at a net cost of $4-8M, in return for Yoshi, then I'd strongly consider gambling on a pitching dump than a DH dump.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

How much of a salary dump is it if the Sox are still paying?  And who are all these internal options?

If the plan is to pay for the bulk of Yoshida only to give more playing time to someone who spent last year behind Yoshida, I’m not sure what the benefit is.  Especially since I have my doubts about Henry spending the savings on a decent solution to fill a need…

5-8M that another team would pick up is still savings for an owner that is hesitant about going over the CBT. 

Campbell

Anthony

Mayer

Teel

Meidroth

[harmony]

17 hours ago, harmony said:

22 hours ago, notin said:

BTV says Yoshida  + $13mill for Mitch Garver is a fair deal.  And it’s one that could make sense for both teams.  But I imagine the uncertainty with Yoshida’s shoulder surgery complicates 

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, harmony said:

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

What’s your point?  BTV never says any team would make a trade.  And if anyone turns down Casas/ Yoshida for Arozarena, it’s probably not Seattle.

But it if they do like Yoshida, I would think unloading Garver would certainly be Seattle’s preference, especially with Boston chipping in 25% of Yoshida’s contract.  I think the Mariners like Arozarena more than you do.  Not to mention, in your proposal, Seattle pays for all of Yoshida and Garver and then has to fill a vacancy in LF as well.  And Garver becomes a $13mill backup 1b/DH coming off an abysmal season…