The Payroll Fallacy

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I hope not, then it becomes like the NBA and the NHL where everyone but the very worst teams makes the playoffs.

There is just too much money in playoff games to decide not to do it.

Maybe we go to 14 first.

[moonslav59]

I like a lot of MN's higher-priced players. Buxton's injuries turn me off, bigtime, but if taking on his salary greatly reduces the return, I'd consider taking the RHB and returning LHBs and prospects, pre-arb and arb guys to get some good pitching.

Carlos Correa: $37.3M x 3 ($33.3M tax hit) NOPE

Byron Buxton (Mr. Injury) $15.1M x 4 ($14.3M tax hit) DOUBTFUL

Pablo Lopez: $21.75M x 3 (but $18.4M tax hit) A BIG YES

Joe Ryan & Bailey Ober both have 3 arbs left. I'm not sure why MN wants to trade them, now. Both BIG YES

Ryan Jeffers RHB catcher has his 3rd arb due. He seems like a perfect fit to bridge to Teel. BIG YES

BTV:

44 Joe Ryan (value back in May)

37 Lopez

23 Ober

22 Correa

13 Jeffers

0 Buxton

So, Lopez + Jeffers= 50, Ryan + Jeffers =57 and Ober + Jeffers=36.

I doubt we'd pry two SP'ers away, so one plus Jeffers looks like a great match for the Sox side of the trade. 

I'm not sure who they like on the Sox, but maybe if we took on Buxton's salary, they'd want Abreo ($29M.) DHam has $11M value, but that seems too high. He did very well at 2B D and has speed, but I'm not sure a .700 OPS (the new .750) is good enough to make those two worth $50M.

They might take Mayer for Lopez + Jeffers or Mayer + Dobbins for Ryan + Jeffers. Abreu+DHam might get Ober + Jeffers.

Hard to know what other teams might offer, too.

 

[notin]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then expand the roster to 27 or 28 players (+1 for DBLHDRs) and have less days off.

I’ve been saying it for years - bring back Sunday double headers!

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve been saying it for years - bring back Sunday double headers!

That would be a good idea, but I think they'd need a 27 man roster with 28 for Sundays. The union would likely insist on this, and with good reason. 

If you teams a day off every week, but play a double header every Sunday, teams would play 7 games a week, and the season would be 162 days long + the AS break. The season could be 24 weeks long. That's about 3 weeks less than now, so in theory, teams could get another day off 3rd week and play 20 games in 21 days.

[Bellhorn04]

When those Sunday double headers get rained out, boy, you've really got problems.

I don't think anyone would agree to that idea, frankly.

 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When those Sunday double headers get rained out, boy, you've really got problems.

I don't think anyone would agree to that idea, frankly.

 

MLB did it for decades…

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

MLB did it for decades…

Some things get changed and never come back.  That's one of them.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When those Sunday double headers get rained out, boy, you've really got problems.

I don't think anyone would agree to that idea, frankly.

 

"Let's play three!" 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is just too much money in playoff games to decide not to do it.

Maybe we go to 14 first.

Oh, I agree that it will probably happen, I just am against it.

Why play 162 games then? I mean, aside from the money.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Oh, I agree that it will probably happen, I just am against it.

Why play 162 games then? I mean, aside from the money.

While I do think 154 games is enough to weed out lucky teams, I agree. The long season is for a reason. Asking teams to win short series after short series adds back in the luck factor, or as some call it "a crapshoot."

Baseball is not like basketball and football. The playoffs should not be like theirs.

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Oh, I agree that it will probably happen, I just am against it.

Why play 162 games then? I mean, aside from the money.

162 games is for the fans of teams that don't get into the playoffs. Not fair to take 8 games away from them. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Some things get changed and never come back.  That's one of them.

Not when I get named Commissioner!!

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Not when I get named Commissioner!!

You have a good shot since you are often in the bag for ownership! 😎

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You have a good shot since you are often in the bag for ownership! 😎

All part of the Master Plan…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

162 games is for the fans of teams that don't get into the playoffs. Not fair to take 8 games away from them. 

True but more than half get in.

(I'm not for the idea.)

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True but more than half get in.

(I'm not for the idea.)

I've read that they would only go to 16 teams if the league expanded to 32 teams. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I've read that they would only go to 16 teams if the league expanded to 32 teams. 

I don't trust what any of these guys say.

They could go to 14, soon, then 16, if and when they expand to 32.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

162 games is for the fans of teams that don't get into the playoffs. Not fair to take 8 games away from them. 

Originally, the whole point of having 162 (or 154) games was to determine the best team in each league that then plays in the WS. 

If we are going to have pretty much everyone make it into the playoffs, then there's no need for that long of a season. Shorten to 82 games like hockey and basketball.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Originally, the whole point of having 162 (or 154) games was to determine the best team in each league that then plays in the WS. 

If we are going to have pretty much everyone make it into the playoffs, then there's no need for that long of a season. Shorten to 82 games like hockey and basketball.

Even if they went to 7 game series in each round, there is no need to cut back that much, and they'd never give up that amount of money over a concept.

Going to 154 would just return to the old days, so it would not be that extreme, but my guess is they will stay at 162, while still expanding the playoffs.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if they went to 7 game series in each round, there is no need to cut back that much, and they'd never give up that amount of money over a concept.

Going to 154 would just return to the old days, so it would not be that extreme, but my guess is they will stay at 162, while still expanding the playoffs.

While I believe you are right, it would suck if that were to happen.

I'm old school, I still like the idea of no playoffs and the 2 best teams meet in the WS.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

While I believe you are right, it would suck if that were to happen.

I'm old school, I still like the idea of no playoffs and the 2 best teams meet in the WS.

Agree. 8 teams is pushing it, for me.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

While I believe you are right, it would suck if that were to happen.

I'm old school, I still like the idea of no playoffs and the 2 best teams meet in the WS.

Without balanced schedules, it's a horrible idea. 

[Bellhorn04]

The only good idea in this area is to accept the way it is (controlled by greedy SOBs) and spend your energy elsewhere. 😇   

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only good idea in this area is to accept the way it is (controlled by greedy SOBs) and spend your energy elsewhere. 😇   

No chance are they ever reducing the amount of playoff games. MLB would have to go into a retraction period for that to happen. 

[mvp 78]

Contraction? 

[Bellhorn04]

Rob Manfred and Roger Goodell each have the same mandate-make as much money for the owners as possible.   The embrace of gambling clinched that.

If you want to figure out what they're going to do next, greed has to be your guiding principle.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Without balanced schedules, it's a horrible idea. 

Pretty sure it was a balanced schedule before divisional play.

[notin]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Without balanced schedules, it's a horrible idea. 

Agreed.  The White Sox drastically influenced the playoff picture this season. Without them, KC was under .500 and Detroit barely over. Minnesota only stayed in the race as long as they did because their 12-1 record against the White Sox fluffed them up…

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.  The White Sox drastically influenced the playoff picture this season. Without them, KC was under .500 and Detroit barely over. Minnesota only stayed in the race as long as they did because their 12-1 record against the White Sox fluffed them up…

The AL Central was a powerhouse!!!!!

They were the only division with 4 teams over .500. They are the reason the CWS had such a crappy record. This is proven by the fact that the great Red Sox only went 4-3 vs them. The Braves lost 2 or 3, as did the Cards and Nats.

You guys have it all backwards!

(LOL)