Article: Travis Shaw, The Third Baseman That Got Away

[Bryce Whitlow]

Trades are a part of every professional sport. Every year, we see fan favorites, veterans on expiring deals, and prospects blocked on the depth chart get shipped to a new city for returns geared toward improving the team's outlook. Historically, the Red Sox have won some deals and, of course, lost some as well.

A big win that often comes to mind is the Sox's deal with the Seattle Mariners in 1997. The Sox sent Heathcliff Slocumb to Seattle and, in return, received Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe. Another trade that comes to mind is when the team traded future Hall Of Fame first baseman Jeff Bagwell to the Astros in exchange for Larry Anderson in 1990, a trade that I'm sure haunts many of us to this day. This brings me to a trade that’s always stuck with me and is a deal I’ve never fully gotten over. While it may not have been as consequential as the previous trades I’ve mentioned, and hindsight on these types of things is always 20/20, it’s always irked me. I’m talking about the trade that sent Travis Shaw to the Brewers in exchange for Tyler Thornburg. 

The 2016 Boston Red Sox came from a season where they won the AL East. They went 93-69 with manager John Farrell at the helm. The team didn’t make waves in the postseason, getting swept in the ALDS by the eventual American League Champions Cleveland Indians. In the absence of Pablo Sandoval, Travis Shaw was in his second season seeing regular reps at third base, appearing in 105 games at the hot corner and 50 at first base. Shaw provided a spark for the Sox in the early parts of the season. In April, he hit .314 with an .885 OPS. Shaw’s first half was largely impressive. In 305 at-bats, he cruised to a .269/.332/.456 slash line with nine home runs and 48 RBI. League average OPS during the 2016 MLB season was .750, so Travis Shaw’s .788 first-half OPS was more than serviceable and above average. Then, the wheels fell off. Shaw limped to the finish line in the second half of the season. In 175 at-bats, he managed an uninspiring .619 OPS, which included a slump in August that saw him go 12-72 with 22 strikeouts. The team only used Shaw in one postseason game during the 2016 run. He came in during the 8th inning of game three, going 1-2 in the eventual loss.

All in all, Travis Shaw had a decent 2016. He clubbed 16 long balls while driving in 71 runs. While those are decent counting stats, his second-half slump saw his offensive production slide into below-average territory, with a .726 OPS and only a 90 OPS+. Another glaring hurdle for Travis Shaw was his inability to hit left-handed pitching. In 107 at-bats against southpaws, he hit .187 with an OPS below .600. While this certainly isn’t ideal, I did think his first-half production and solid minor league track record warranted another shot in 2017, especially with the seemingly always unreliable Pablo Sandoval attempting to hold down third base. The Red Sox thought otherwise. 

On December 6th, 2016, the Red Sox traded Travis Shaw, Josh Pennington, Mauricio Dubon, and a player to be named later, who was found to be Yeison Coca, to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Tyler Thornburg. 

Admittedly, I can see why the team saw Travis Shaw as somewhat expendable into the 2017 season. The Sox were closing in on signing Mitch Moreland to play first base and still wanted Sandoval to see at-bats at third, all while a young Rafael Devers was waiting in the wings, too. Shaw’s lack of defensive versatility and inability to hit left-handed pitching left him without a clear path to receiving playing time. The Red Sox felt comfortable letting Travis Shaw go with all those factors in play. 

With a possible chip on his shoulder, Shaw exploded onto the scene in Milwaukee. As the team's primary third baseman, Travis Shaw smoked 31 long balls and drove in 101 runs. He produced an .862 OPS with a 121 OPS+. He became one of the best power-hitting third basemen in the National League. Shaw could even work on his flaws, slashing a much more respectable .776 OPS against lefties in 140 at-bats. We again saw his production tail off a bit after the All-Star break, going from a .938 OPS in the first half to a .768 OPS in the second half. However, compared to his .619 second-half OPS from the previous season, it becomes much more palatable. 

Shaw posted a bWAR of 3.5 as well as a 0.1 defensive bWAR. His hard-hit rate was also at a career-high 39.4%. Essentially, Travis Shaw gave the Brewers league-average defense while being roughly 21% above league-average offensively in 2017. The 2018 season was largely the same for Shaw. He hit a career-high 32 home runs while driving in 86. He again cleared the .800 OPS mark for the Brew Crew. Despite an awe-inspiring two years with Milwaukee, Shaw might end up struggling in 2019. He only hit .157 in 86 games before being non-tendered at the season’s end. This ended a successful initial run for Travis Shaw in a Brewers’ uniform. 

Like I said, hindsight with these trades is always 20/20. Tyler Thornburg was coming off an awe-inspiring season for the Brewers. In 67 games, the 190-pound right-hander threw 67.0 innings of 2.15 ERA ball. Even his peripheral numbers looked amazing. He produced a 2.83 FIP, 0.940 WHIP, and a 199 ERA+. Thornburg also had a decent track record in previous seasons as well. However, this was the first time he had thrown more than 40.0 innings in an MLB season, so the sample wasn’t necessarily sizable. As good as Thornburg was in 2016, I couldn’t help but feel that giving up their insurance policy for a struggling and often injured Sandoval, the 12th prospect in the organization in Mauricio Dubon, and two other minor leaguers was a bit of an overpay for a pitcher who wasn’t going to give you much more than 60.0 innings. 

The Tyler Thornburg era didn't go according to plan for the Red Sox. Thornburg would start the 2017 season on the injured list due to an injured shoulder. In June, he was officially diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, a group of disorders that occur when blood vessels or nerves are compressed. This required season-ending surgery. The 2017 MLB season came without Thornburg throwing a single pitch for the Boston Red Sox. 

For the 2018 season, Thornburg missed spring training and spend most of the year's first half on rehab assignments. He’d make his Red Sox debut on July 6th, pitching against the Kansas City Royals. Thornburg would give up a triple to Lucas Duda, followed by a sacrifice fly from Adalberto Mondesi. Thornburg would then pitch in 25 games of 5.63 ERA ball in 2018. His home runs allowed were up, and his strikeout rates were down. 

While Thornburg made the 2019 Opening Day roster for the Sox, he would struggle once again. In 18.2 innings, he’d post a 7.71 ERA. 2019 brought on more injuries, and he would eventually decline a minor league assignment. He was then released on July 10th. In 41 games with the Red Sox throughout two seasons, he pitched to a 5.63 ERA with a daunting 6.04 FIP and 1.583 WHIP.  The Brewers enjoyed a three-season stint worth 6.0 bWAR from Travis Shaw, while the Red Sox got -1.0 bWAR from Tyler Thornburg. 

As if Sox fans needed even more salt poured into the wound, the Red Sox cut bait with Pablo Sandoval halfway through the 2019 season and gave 416 at-bats to Hanley Ramirez, who posted a below-league average 95 OPS+ at DH and first base.  

Dubon, the other notable name in the deal, would only play for the Milwaukee Brewers in two games. Still, after trading him to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz, they would eventually turn him into 26.1 innings of 2.39 ERA baseball. 

Travis Shaw would eventually return to Boston in 2021, but an unsuccessful 35-game stint over the course of two seasons would prove to be the end of his MLB career. 

I always had an affinity for “The Mayor Of Ding Dong City.” He made sure to let everyone in the Red Sox organization know they moved on from him a bit too quickly, and honestly, good for him. While this wasn’t a monumental trade that altered the Red Sox's future (as evidenced by their first-place finish in 2017 and their 2018 World Series win), it was a deal that the Red Sox came out on the losing end of. Sometimes, that’s just the way the cookie crumbles.

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[Bellhorn04]

Nice article, thanks.

Just a couple of comments:

1) The trades for Thornburg and Carson Smith were sort of uncharacteristic for Dombrowski, who has been accused of not being good at assembling bullpens, or of simply neglecting them.  Unfortunately both trades were total busts.

2) Shaw was not actually unsuccessful for the Red Sox in 2021.  He had an .843 OPS in 48 PA's, with 3 HR and 11 RBI. 

 

[Bryce Whitlow]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nice article, thanks.

Just a couple of comments:

1) The trades for Thornburg and Carson Smith were sort of uncharacteristic for Dombrowski, who has been accused of not being good at assembling bullpens, or of simply neglecting them.  Unfortunately both trades were total busts.

2) Shaw was not actually unsuccessful for the Red Sox in 2021.  He had an .843 OPS in 48 PA's, with 3 HR and 11 RBI. 

 

He was quite good in 2021! I deemed his two season run a bit unsuccessful due to the unceremonious ending in 2022 (0-19). 

[ahanson]

Great article Bryce! Fascinating analysis of the trade! 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, ahanson said:

Great article Bryce! Fascinating analysis of the trade! 

Welcome to Talk Sox, thanks for posting!

[moonslav59]

DD made very few bad trades, and this one made sense, when made. We needed pen help, and Thornburg was good one, until he joined the Sox.

[Bryce Whitlow]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DD made very few bad trades, and this one made sense, when made. We needed pen help, and Thornburg was good one, until he joined the Sox.

It’s definitely easy to see why the deal was made. Thornburg at his best is nearly a bullpen ace. In my opinion I just thought the move would’ve been to hang onto Shaw’s bat for at least one more year. The bullpen turned out to be solid, but I can see on paper that it looked shaky with the likes of Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, and Robby Scott having to throw a lot of innings. They did a nice job, but there was no way to know that when they swung this trade. I just thought Shaw was given up on too soon. 

Edited September 2, 2024 by Bryce Whitlow

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Bryce Whitlow said:

It’s definitely easy to see why the deal was made. Thornburg at his best is nearly a bullpen ace. In my opinion I just thought the move would’ve been to hang onto Shaw’s bat for at least one more year. The bullpen turned out to be solid, but I can see on paper that it looked shaky with the likes of Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, and Robby Scott having to throw a lot of innings. They did a nice job, but there was no way to know that when they swung this trade. I just thought Shaw was given up on too soon. 

I don't see it as "giving up." Thornburg was damn good. If anything, it showed just how much they valued Shaw to insist on getting a top quality pitcher for a guy who didn't really have a FT position locked up, that year.

Trading someone does not mean you gave up on the guy, especially when you get what was thought to be top quality in return.

We tarded a very good player for another very good player. It just did not work out, due to Thornburg's injury and failure to recover from it.

[Bryce Whitlow]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see it as "giving up." Thornburg was damn good. If anything, it showed just how much they valued Shaw to insist on getting a top quality pitcher for a guy who didn't really have a FT position locked up, that year.

Trading someone does not mean you gave up on the guy, especially when you get what was thought to be top quality in return.

We tarded a very good player for another very good player. It just did not work out, due to Thornburg's injury and failure to recover from it.

Good point! It was definitely a good return at the time. Awesome to talk ball with you man! 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bryce Whitlow said:

Good point! It was definitely a good return at the time. Awesome to talk ball with you man! 

We hear the same when suggesting we trade Anthony or Mayer in a package for an ace. To me, it's not giving up on them or valuing them less than those who say they ar untouchables. To me, getting an ace with 3+ years of control for one plus other pieces is showing I value them, greatly.

BTW, I really liked the article and enjoy the back and forth, too.

[mvp 78]

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/85879-trade-confirmed-shaw-dubon-pennington-to-brewers-for-rhrp-tyler-thornburg/

At the time of the trade, more people were concerned about losing Dubon than anything else. Losing Shaw wasn't seen as a big deal since they had Devers marching through the system (MLB debut at '17 deadline) and still had Holt on the roster. The ended up going with Marrero/Sandoval/Rutledge until Devers was ready, which was not exactly ideal. 

[Bryce Whitlow]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/85879-trade-confirmed-shaw-dubon-pennington-to-brewers-for-rhrp-tyler-thornburg/

At the time of the trade, more people were concerned about losing Dubon than anything else. Losing Shaw wasn't seen as a big deal since they had Devers marching through the system (MLB debut at '17 deadline) and still had Holt on the roster. The ended up going with Marrero/Sandoval/Rutledge until Devers was ready, which was not exactly ideal. 

My first game at Fenway when I was 15 was Rutledge’s Red Sox debut. I believe he came in as a defensive replacement. I liked him in Colorado a lot. I also bought a Sandoval jersey that day so I wasn’t the smartest teenager. 

[moonslav59]

Shaw was my "sleeper prospect" way  back in the day. (The BDC days.)

As he played more and more, I no longer thought he had the skills he showed after the trade.

I remember like MVP, that Dubon was the one that might come back to haunt us.

I remember thinking Thornburg was a good get.