Is this a weird offseason for baseball in general, or will it still turn out normal?

[Bellhorn04]

Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.

 

fWAR

2020 0.9

2021 3.2

2022 2.7

 

All above average.

 

He's on a 4 year run of above average.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A lot of posts about paying market value for a starting pitcher to lead the rotation.

 

Some fans may think any debate for this need is sad when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. To that, I just say...

 

... PGA, baby! (POOR GUY ABSOLVED)

[Bellhorn04]

He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.

 

We have no idea what the ask is. I'd go as high as the $125-135 mill range.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of posts about paying market value for a starting pitcher to lead the rotation.

 

Some fans may think any debate for this need is sad when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. To that, I just say...

 

... PGA, baby! (POOR GUY ABSOLVED)

 

Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.

[mvp 78]

fWAR

2020 0.9

2021 3.2

2022 2.7

 

All above average.

 

He's on a 4 year run of above average.

 

So above average that the Yankees didn't want him on their post season roster.

[mvp 78]

Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.

 

Can't happen until Lebron retires, I believe. As an investor in FSG, he can't be an active owner of an NBA team as a player.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Get one ready for NBA, because that's coming soon.

 

No Baseball Anytime!

[mvp 78]

When you look at his statcast page, he's never been above 60th percentile for xERA, xBA, xSLG, xISO, K%. He's a fine pitcher who gives you a lot of innings without walking batters. If the Sox were going to put a really good IF defense out there, it'd make sense for them to lock him up. He's a better version of Derek Lowe IMO. Lowe was a pretty good pitcher until his late 30's. If Montgomery avoids injury, he could be decent. He's become a better pitcher as he's thrown his sinker more (up to 42% last year, was in the 20's in 20-21 and 30's in 22).

[notin]

Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average."

 

That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.

 

You changed the scale.

 

The original numbers were per 175 IP, not per season. Montgomery had a 3 year stretch where he totaled 75 IP.

 

If you use his numbers not counting last year, his 9.9 fWAR per 566 IP converts to 3.1 fWAR per 175 IP.

 

That’s barely a noticeable drop over when you include 2023…

[notin]

So above average that the Yankees didn't want him on their post season roster.

 

That just makes him more likable in my eyes…

[Bellhorn04]

That just makes him more likable in my eyes…

 

Exactly. Would be nothing sweeter than Montgomery beating his original team in a Red Sox uniform...with Whitlock getting the save.

[moonslav59]

Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.

 

No, he was 20-33% from '21-'22 in most categories: 26th% in xFIP.

[moonslav59]

He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.

 

A #2 is NOT average.

[mvp 78]

A #2 is NOT average.

 

I'm not saying he's average today. I'm not saying he was a #2 prior to 2023.

 

He was average prior to 2023. Now, he's a #2 starter because he's throwing his splitter more and it's working out well for him.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying he's average today. I'm not saying he was a #2 prior to 2023.

 

He was average prior to 2023. Now, he's a #2 starter because he's throwing his splitter more and it's working out well for him.

 

What about from 2021 to 2022, where he was at the 26th percentile in xFIP? (That's not 40-60%.)

[mvp 78]

What about from 2021 to 2022, where he was at the 26th percentile in xFIP? (That's not 40-60%.)

 

If you look at all qualified pitchers from '21-'22, he's 55th percentile. AVERAGE

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing is, the Red Sox' starting rotation is so bad, it could really use a few more starters who are just average. Ya know, just to get through another season.

 

According to bb-ref, the AL's average Earned Run Average in 2023 -- per 180 IP was 4.28. Of course, no Sox' pitcher came close to 180 IP, but Giolito did it for three other teams combined.

 

The Red Sox have exactly one starter who was basically average last year: Bello at 4.24. Next is Crawford at 4.51 in 23 starts, followed by Pivetta at 4.66 in 16 starts, then Houck 5.01 in 21 and Whitlock 5.23 in 10.

 

Sale was average at 4.30 in 20 starts. Paxton was 4.50 in 19. But both are gone...

 

... replaced by Giolito: 4.88 in 33 starts.

[moonslav59]

If you look at all qualified pitchers from '21-'22, he's 55th percentile. AVERAGE

 

So, you are penalizing him for having too many IP?

 

I guess there are only 49 SP'ers worthy of comparing him to, because they did not "qualify."

 

BTW, tied for 21st in your stat, xFIP is top 43% out of 49 pitchers.

 

While the fact that only 49 pitchers had 300+ IP from '21-'22 highlights just how much more value someone like Monty has for any team, his production level was better than top 43%, when you count 4-5 pitchers per team- you know, the amount every team uses.

 

He pitches more innings than the other 100 SP'ers and much better per inning, but we can't count them. How good are those other 100?

 

Even going to 250 IP, the sample size only grow to 81 pitchers. (Monty is tied for 31st or top 39%)

 

You have to go to 200 IP, a measly 100 per season, to even get to 114 pitchers (105 SP'ers.) That's about 3-4 per team. (33 out of 105 is about top 30%)

 

When I think average, I think where does some one rank among the top 150 SP'er, (5 SP x 30 teams) but even that could b e viewed as not really comparing him to every SP'er to see what average looks like.

 

It's like saying, "He's an average top 50 pitcher in MLB."

 

[moonslav59]

Sale was average at 4.30 in 20 starts. Paxton was 4.50 in 19. But both are gone...

 

... replaced by Giolito: 4.88 in 33 starts.

 

Also, Sale + Paxton = 39 GS and nearly 200 IP. I doubt Gio starts even 34 games.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also, Sale + Paxton = 39 GS and nearly 200 IP. I doubt Gio starts even 34 games.

 

Ya, it does look like the rotation is a little short. Don't worry, it's still... the month when teams report to Florida.

[moonslav59]

Ya, it does look like the rotation is a little short. Don't worry, it's still... the month when teams report to Florida.

 

I hope we add an innings eater, but part of me also thinks maybe it's not a bad idea to find out- once-and for-all, if any of these tweeners can start 27+ games and go 160+ IP.

 

I just hope we don't ruin any of them in the attempt.

[notin]

Also, Sale + Paxton = 39 GS and nearly 200 IP. I doubt Gio starts even 34 games.

 

But he might get 175-180 of those 200 IP….

[moonslav59]

But he might get 175-180 of those 200 IP….

 

Okay.

 

Lower production.

 

Less IP.

 

Should I be impressed? Encouraged?

 

I happen to think Gio will do better than 2023, but Sale & Paxton did better than most of our pitchers, last year, and we sucked in SP'ing, then, too.

[Dipre]

They need another starter at the very least, is the point.

[notin]

They need another starter at the very least, is the point.

 

I have a feeling with already have the guy, and his name rhymes with Tanner Houck...

[Dipre]

I have a feeling with already have the guy, and his name rhymes with Tanner Houck...

 

Hanner Touck?

[Bellhorn04]

I have a feeling with already have the guy, and his name rhymes with Tanner Houck...

 

Which also rhymes with Still A Stupid Idea.

[moonslav59]

They need another starter at the very least, is the point.

 

Exactly, and at best, we just shuffled Paxton and Sale for Gio.

 

We didn't add squat.

[moonslav59]

I have a feeling with already have the guy, and his name rhymes with Tanner Houck...

 

Houck was the only "tweener" that spent all of his 2023 games in the rotation.

 

He and Pivetta look like the sure bet starters in 2024, along with Bello & Gio.

 

The 5th starter will likely be shuffled during the season, unless the first guy does well enough to hold it down.

 

I'm guessing Crawford has the inside track, but at this point, who knows.

 

Whit & Wink are "being stretched out," so maybe one of them wins the job in ST'ing.

[notin]

Houck was the only "tweener" that spent all of his 2023 games in the rotation.

 

He and Pivetta look like the sure bet starters in 2024, along with Bello & Gio.

 

The 5th starter will likely be shuffled during the season, unless the first guy does well enough to hold it down.

 

I'm guessing Crawford has the inside track, but at this point, who knows.

 

Whit & Wink are "being stretched out," so maybe one of them wins the job in ST'ing.

 

I’m not wild about any of Houck, Whitlock or Wink bring in the rotation. But if they are, hopefully Breslow at least gets a reliever to backfill their spot(s) in the bullpen…