Is this a weird offseason for baseball in general, or will it still turn out normal?

[Bellhorn04]

I posted this a little while ago: this offseason has basically been Crickets/Ohtani/Crickets/Yamamoto/Crickets. I think that's still the case.

 

So what the hell is going on? Why aren't the following guys signed or even rumored to be signing:

 

Snell

Montgomery

Stroman

Bellinger

Chapman

 

And plenty more.

 

The Dodgers have gone apeshit but most teams have been relatively quiet-including the hometown team, needless to say!

 

Some guys have gotten more than projected and some less than projected.

 

A lot of guys have gotten nothing yet.

 

I saw one comment that owners might be spooked about the future of certain revenue sources due to the collapse of RSN (to be honest I understand very little about this.)

 

The atrocious World Series ratings might have raised some concerns too.

[notin]

In Chicago, some Cubs fans are growing impatient.

 

The Cubs have not added a single player via trade or MLB contract. (And only 4 players to minor league deals.) Not one. It has been so bad, my Diehard Cubbie Blue daughter got elated when the team signed Colten Brewer to a minor league deal last week. Colten Brewer!

 

This is a team that didn’t get eliminated until game 161!!

[moonslav59]

So what the hell is going on? Why aren't the following guys signed or even rumored to be signing:

 

Snell

Montgomery

Stroman

Bellinger

Chapman

 

The Sox optimist might say, "They are waiting for the Sox to 'clear up salary space,' before signing with us.

 

The Sox pessimist might say, "They are holding out for absurd amounts of money way out of our price range."

[notin]

I think there is a lot of “let’s wait and see what X gets and base our demands on that.”

 

The problem is we have Montgomery’s camp saying “let’s see what Snell gets” and Snell’s camp plotting by waiting to see what Montgomery gets. This issue gets compounded even more once you realize Montgomery and Snell both have the same agent.

 

Conclusion: I don’t blame much of anything on Scott Boras. But slow offseasons are clearly his fault…

[jacksonianmarch]

This is going to be the new norm. Negotiation works the best when there is a timeline. Spring training is still a ways away

[moonslav59]

Here is another Mazz video:

 

 

(The team was bought for $750M in 2001-2002, including the park and cable network. It's worth over $4.5B, now. They could have signed Yamamoto.)

Edited January 8, 2024 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

A slow start to the off season is becoming more common. And fans do not have a ton of patience. I would expect things to heat up soon, although some of the more marginal guys could be left twisting in the wind for at least a while longer.

[Dipre]

Here is another Mazz video:

 

 

(The team was bought for $750M in 2001-2002, including the park and cable network. It's worth over $4.5B, now. They could have signed Yamamoto.)

 

What if Yamamoto simply didn't want to come here?

[moonslav59]

What if Yamamoto simply didn't want to come here?

 

That very well could be true, but no leak of an offer made makes me (and Mazz) think we were not near what it would take.

 

Maybe $350M doesn't do it.

 

$350 would likely get us Teoscar, Gray and Monty, though.

$75M Gray

$200M Monty

$75M Teoscar

 

Of course, the AAV would be out of our range for 3 years.

[Dipre]

Mazz is the inspiration for your thought process? Ok.

[mvp 78]

That very well could be true, but no leak of an offer made makes me (and Mazz) think we were not near what it would take.

 

Maybe $350M doesn't do it.

 

$350 would likely get us Teoscar, Gray and Monty, though.

$75M Gray

$200M Monty

$75M Teoscar

 

Of course, the AAV would be out of our range for 3 years.

 

If they offered 350, Dodgers would have matched it. Frankly, the Sox weren't serious about him and the Sox haven't been serious about spending money in a few years.

[moonslav59]

Mazz is the inspiration for your thought process? Ok.

 

Who are you referring to?

[mvp 78]

No, it's a weird freakin' offseason! (Originally penned by moon after the Sale trade from CHW.)

 

Rosenthal wrote an article that can be summed up: the risk that owners run into when they extend young talent is that they can turn into Wander Franco!

 

[notin]

No, it's a weird freakin' offseason! (Originally penned by moon after the Sale trade from CHW.)

 

Rosenthal wrote an article that can be summed up: the risk that owners run into when they extend young talent is that they can turn into Wander Franco!

 

 

 

One might think teams would have clauses in their contracts that say “by the way, if you go to jail or get kicked out of the league, we stop paying you!! Like, that day, dude!!”

 

If so, in some cases teams might fear those deals because they think the player WON’T turn into Wander Franco…

[Bellhorn04]

February 1, and Boras's Fearsome Foursome are still unsigned.

[mvp 78]

February 1, and Boras's Fearsome Foursome are still unsigned.

 

Snell - wildly inconsistent

Montgomery - average pitcher until '23 and wants close to max deal

Bellinger - superstar prospect who fell to earth and disappeared for a few years, had a near MVP season but as a completely different hitter (Punch and Judy!)

Chapman - glove first 3B

 

It's not THAT suprising that teams aren't jumping at these guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Snell - wildly inconsistent

Montgomery - average pitcher until '23 and wants close to max deal

Bellinger - superstar prospect who fell to earth and disappeared for a few years, had a near MVP season but as a completely different hitter (Punch and Judy!)

Chapman - glove first 3B

 

It's not THAT suprising that teams aren't jumping at these guys.

 

Don't forget JD Martinez. Six years ago Boras said he was worth $200M -- with cost of living increases, what does Scott want for his All-Star DH now?

[moonslav59]

Montgomery - average pitcher until '23 and wants close to max deal

 

I guess we can argue about what average is, but from 2021-2022, there were 150 SP'ers with 130+ IP. Here is where Monty placed:

 

27th in IP at 336 (top 20% tier)

36th in fWAR at 5.9 (2nd tier and 0.1 away from top tier)

39th in xFIP at 3.66 (0.13 away from top tier)

54th in ERA at 3.66 (2nd tier and 0.43 from 30th)

55th in ERA- at 90

 

He looked like a very solid #2 tier pitcher in those 2 years- maybe even a borderline 1/2 tier.

 

If you combine his last 3 years, he tilts to top tier (top 30,) to me.

 

Above average, at least.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess we can argue about what average is, but from 2021-2022, there were 150 SP'ers with 130+ IP. Here is where Monty placed:

 

27th in IP at 336 (top 20% tier)

36th in fWAR at 5.9 (2nd tier and 0.1 away from top tier)

39th in xFIP at 3.66 (0.13 away from top tier)

54th in ERA at 3.66 (2nd tier and 0.43 from 30th)

55th in ERA- at 90

 

He looked like a very solid #2 tier pitcher in those 2 years- maybe even a borderline 1/2 tier.

 

If you combine his last 3 years, he tilts to top tier (top 30,) to me.

 

Above average, at least.

 

Well above average.

[mvp 78]

Well above average.

 

Not prior to 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Not prior to 2023.

 

moon's numbers for 2021-22 say otherwise and appear to be 100% accurate. He was good in the abbreviated 2020 as well.

[moonslav59]

moon's numbers for 2021-22 say otherwise and appear to be 100% accurate. He was good in the abbreviated 2020 as well.

 

If you combine every year, before 2023, he was average.

 

My point was from 2021-2022, even in xFIP, MVP's go to stat, he was top 40%. (He was top 26% in xFIP.)

[Bellhorn04]

If you take his whole career you've got 755 innings and a 14.2 fWAR.

 

That's about 3.3 fWAR per 175 IP.

 

Average is about 2 fWAR per 175 IP.

[moonslav59]

If you take his whole career you've got 755 innings and a 14.2 fWAR.

 

That's about 3.3 fWAR per 175 IP.

 

Average is about 2 fWAR per 175 IP.

 

Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average."

 

That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.

[Bellhorn04]

Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average."

 

That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.

 

Has to be done by IP if we're evaluating the guy's actual ability.

[moonslav59]

Has to be done by IP if we're evaluating the guy's actual ability.

 

I think we were talking about production levels before 2023, but yes, counting those 3 seasons where he totalled 71 IP end up making his avg fWAR lower than his true skill level.

 

9.9/5 is 2.0 AVG

9.9/4 is 2.5 AVG to AVG+

9.9/3 is 3.3 AVG+

[Bellhorn04]

If we insist on using the crazy numbering thing, he's a solid #2.

 

What's interesting is that the Rangers won the 2023 World Series on the backs of #2's in Eovaldi and Monty, while their supposed #1s, deGrom and Scherzer, were of little use.

[mvp 78]

moon's numbers for 2021-22 say otherwise and appear to be 100% accurate. He was good in the abbreviated 2020 as well.

 

I disagree with the multiple year "well he's listed as the top 50 if you cut off innings at this point..." He was average prior to 2023.

[mvp 78]

If you combine every year, before 2023, he was average.

 

My point was from 2021-2022, even in xFIP, MVP's go to stat, he was top 40%. (He was top 26% in xFIP.)

 

Being 40-60% is average. C'mon man. That's like saying if you're 49th percentile you're above average.

[mvp 78]

If we insist on using the crazy numbering thing, he's a solid #2.

 

What's interesting is that the Rangers won the 2023 World Series on the backs of #2's in Eovaldi and Monty, while their supposed #1s, deGrom and Scherzer, were of little use.

 

He's a #2 now, sure. Does that earn him the deal he's looking for? IDK. I can see why some teams shy away from giving him more than Nola since he doesn't have that track record.