A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

It is nice to start with a win, and doing well for the first month or so seems to set the tone, sometimes, but certainly there are planty of examples of slow starting teams that reach glory.

 

It was a nice win. There are 161 games left, so that kinda puts it in perspective.

 

Better to win than lose. Now, let's make it two wins!

[harmony]

Ignoring health, O'Neilll isn't much of a step down from Verdugo, who was vastly overrated IMO.

 

I like Campbell too. I don't know any Mariner's fan who thought the Urias trade was a good deal.

This Mariner fan liked the Luis Urias trade for both teams.

 

An analytics guy in the Mariner front office compares the 26-year-old Urias with J.P. Crawford, another former top prospect who got off to a slow start in his MLB career.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It's great. Last night was the most I've enjoyed a game in a while. We're way short of where we would like to be, but they seem to really like each other as a group, so I'll take the hope (again) for now.

 

I hope Martin and Jansen stay healthy so we can get good pieces for them at the deadline and further add to the young core.

 

So you have us out of the PO hunt by the trade deadline? How optimistic of you.

[moonslav59]

This Mariner fan liked the Luis Urias trade for both teams.

 

An analytics guy in the Mariner front office compares the 26-year-old Urias with J.P. Crawford, another former top prospect who got off to a slow start in his MLB career.

 

I liked the Urias potential, but Grissom looks to have much better upside.

 

Campbell should help us- hopefully by more than Urias helps your club.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Regarding the SOX farm system, I don't see their farm being as highly ranked w/o any top pitching prospects. Is that a valid argument?

[moonslav59]

Regarding the SOX farm system, I don't see their farm being as highly ranked w/o any top pitching prospects. Is that a valid argument?

 

Some ranking sites specifically said- they did not rank us as highly due to lack of top pitching prospects, so I do think it's fair.

 

There really doesn't seem to be that many upside pitchers that might jump in the rankings in 2024, either.

 

The everyday prospects might be top 3 to 5.

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Rafaela

Bleis

Cespedes

Abreu

 

The pitching side is likely bottom 5-7:

Wikelman

Perales

Fitts

Sandlin

Slaten

Monegro

Dobbins, Guerrero, E R-C, Bastardo, Mata, Hoppe, I Coffey, Paez & others

Walter, Gambrell, Penrod, Liu

 

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Some ranking sites specifically said- they did not rank us as highly due to lack of top pitching prospects, so I do think it's fair.

 

There really doesn't seem to be that many upside pitchers that might jump in the rankings in 2024, either.

 

The everyday prospects might be top 3 to 5.

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Rafaela

Bleis

Cespedes

Abreu

 

The pitching side is likely bottom 5-7:

Wikelman

Perales

Fitts

Sandlin

Slaten

Monegro

Dobbins, Guerrero, E R-C, Bastardo, Mata, Hoppe, I Coffey, Paez & others

Walter, Gambrell, Penrod, Liu

 

 

 

Thanks, Moon. I heve to say that I was impressed with Fitts in one of the late ST games.

[harmony]

I liked the Urias potential, but Grissom looks to have much better upside.

 

Campbell should help us- hopefully by more than Urias helps your club.

Last season 26-year-old Isaiah Campbell was good enough to be on the bullpen shuttle between Seattle and Double A Arkansas. That's not without value.

 

Promising 23-year-old Vaughn Grissom could well match the 2.1 and 2.3 fWAR that Luis Urias posted in his age 24 and 25 seasons.

Edited March 30, 2024 by harmony

[Larry Cook]

I am hopeful that slaten is the real deal! He has decent enough stuff. Let’s hope he can throw strikes and not meatballs

[moonslav59]

Promising 23-year-old Vaughn Grissom could well match the 2.1 and 2.3 fWAR that Luis Urias posted in his age 24 and 25 seasons.

 

I'll bet he tops 2,1, at least twice in his career.

[Larry Cook]

I'll bet he tops 2,1, at least twice in his career.

 

Are you adding years together ?

[Bellhorn04]

I will assume sarcasm, but I haven't been by much in the last few weeks, so if this isn't glib, I am beyond impressed by your redemption arc.

 

And by impressed, I mean a little worried.

 

Yeah, you show up every few weeks but you talk like you're one of the regulars. I've noticed.

 

I've said repeatedly they should trade Jansen only IF they're out of it at the deadline.

 

Just because I've been excoriating ownership doesn't mean I've said anything about throwing in the towel.

[harmony]

I have no issues with Crawford as a SP. I do think they need two other SPs as well.

 

But a RHH bat to protect Devers in fromt of a league worst defense makes zero sense. Sox were, despite the slow finish, a top ten offense. They were not a top 29 defense…

 

Righthander Kutter Crawford, the Red Sox starter on Saturday, has pitched 10 shutout innings over his two career starts at T-Mobile Park (five hits, five walks, 12 strikeouts):

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202206120.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202308020.shtml

 

Just by chance, this poster attended both afternoon games.

[dgalehouse]

Obviously, things do not look too good, on paper or on the field. The best hope is simply that it is baseball. There is plenty of luck and randomness in the sport. There are always players and teams that exceed expectations. The Sox do have some talent. It's not a terrible team. Maintaining health will be important, as it will be for the competition as well. One good thing is that the relatively easy early schedule could result in getting off to a good start. That could help build a winning attitude , confidence and momentum. That being said, I would not advise betting the farm on the Sox winning the division.

 

Another bump. Looks pretty accurate.

[jad]

How much is parking these days?

 

It's free. You take the train (35c for me) to Union Station and you either walk or take a shuttle to Chavez Ravine. Unless you could use the center field parking lot, the aggravation of getting in and out of the stadium lot outweighed any enjoyment you could get from the game itself. (Which may have been why in the bad ole days of the 80s and 90s, you would see the bizarre phenomenon of fans entering and leaving the stadium AT THE SAME TIME. I doubt this happens anymore.)

[moonslav59]

On 10/2/2023 at 11:27 AM, notin said:

"You could use that $25M towards a different arm?"-MVP (on trading Sale & his contract)

Per my post earlier, what if the best as arm you can get for $25mill is Lucas Giolito?

Found this from October 2, 2023

[mvp 78]

On 10/1/2023 at 7:38 PM, moonslav59 said:

Many fans are about as fed up as can be. I'm not sure, if that is enough to light a fire under the current team ownership and management group, but a fire is likely what we need to seriously compete in 2024.

 

We'll be talking Rule 5, options and arbs, trades and signings before we know it. Most of us agree our top need is the rotation, and not just one top starter, but two or three. LH'd relief has been mentioned as has a big RH'd bat. Improving the D has been a topic, too.

 

The budget is a big question mark, again.

 

Here is what I think the foundation will be for 2024. I'm leaving 4 slots for additions via free agency or by trade:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale (Houck or Crawford)

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Crawford

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 ______ (LHP)

 

C Wong & McGuire

1B Casas

2B Reyes & Urias

3B Devers

SS Story

LF Duran & Refsnyder

CF ______ (RHB) Rafaela or Abreu

RF Verdugo

DH Yoshida

 

40 Man Roster on the Farm

C S Scott (Rule 5)

2B/DH EValdez

SS DHam

OF RaFaela or Abreu

SP Wikelman (Rule 5), Gambrell (Rule 5), Perales (Rule 5), Drohan (Rule 5)

P Murphy, Walter, Mata,

RP Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson

 

Gone from 40:

1B/RF Dalbec

RP Joely, Mills, Garza, Jacques, Llovera, Weiss, Gillaspie

 

I like the foundation. I know others don't. I know other teams have better and deeper foundations, as of now, but things can change over a winter.

 

I'm hopeful about 2024, but we will need to see some major additions for me to be optimistic about our chances. Let's see what the new GM brings to the equation.

 

 

Here's where the "realistic view" for this year started. It's just too early. We can't always pencil in TOTR guys. The ownership just doesn't seem interested in putting more money into payroll ATM. 

In this view, Whitlock and Houck were both put in as relievers but slid in as starters on the Opening Day roster and ultimately no major additions were added. I just don't know how to forecast a realistic view as of September for the following season unless the spending limit remains unchanged and only internal options are projected. 

If they just go with internal guys and minor changes at the edges of the roster, the team should be about the same as this year, maybe marginally better if Giolito improves on Pivetta's innings. If Bello transforms from a #4 into a #2, that would also go a long way, but I just don't see that happening. 

My guess for next season: 83-79 and largely because the young guys play their asses off down the stretch unlike the previous 3 seasons. 

[moonslav59]

On 5/6/2024 at 2:13 PM, dgalehouse said:

 

Another bump. Looks pretty accurate.

Generic statements usually are.

[mvp 78]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:33 PM, mvp 78 said:

78-84

 

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

Only off by 3 wins. Otherwise, my prediction was so generic that it was hard to miss as moon noted above.