A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

but the least of the ones I would trade. Sign Yamamoto and another SP in FA and be done with it.

 

I'd trade Mayer before I'd trade Anthony or Teel.

[moonslav59]

How much faith do you have in Giolito?

 

Not much. $22M x 2 is nice on the years, but it takes up too much AAV for my liking.

 

I wouldn't be pissed, if he was the second best SP'er we signed or traded for.

[moonslav59]

So… not much. I can agree with that.

 

How about Tyler Mahle?

 

IMO, we need 2 SP'er better than Giolito and Mahle.

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Mayer before I'd trade Anthony or Teel.

 

Agreed.

 

Do you think the BTV value reflects that he would likely bring back more than Anthony and Teel combined? (Both are worth about $60, according to BTV.)

[mvp 78]

Not much. $22M x 2 is nice on the years, but it takes up too much AAV for my liking.

 

I wouldn't be pissed, if he was the second best SP'er we signed or traded for.

 

He's Nick Pivetta with a higher ceiling. I guess his xFIP was pretty decent prior to last year, but I just think his peripherals are dogshit. Can you trust him to be more than a #4? That's not really what the Sox need.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

Do you think the BTV value reflects that he would likely bring back more than Anthony and Teel combined? (Both are worth about $60, according to BTV.)

 

IDK. I think either Teel is undervalued or Yorke is overvalued because they are approximately the same player on there. I wouldn't trade Teel for some other team's Nick Yorke.

[moonslav59]

IDK. I think either Teel is undervalued or Yorke is overvalued because they are approximately the same player on there. I wouldn't trade Teel for some other team's Nick Yorke.

 

I think they have Teel undervalued due to a small sample size of work.

 

For some reason, they have had Yorke high for a long time. I don't know why.

[moonslav59]

IDK. I think either Teel is undervalued or Yorke is overvalued because they are approximately the same player on there. I wouldn't trade Teel for some other team's Nick Yorke.

 

To me, ideally, we'd start 2024 with Sale and Pivetta penciled in as our #5. If Sale is healthy, Pivetta is a long reliever- joining Houck, Crawford and Whitlock in that role.

 

That, of course, assumes we add 3 SP'ers better than Crawford/Houck, and this is the "realistic thread," so more likely it might be set up like this:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale

SP5 Pivetta (Houck/Crawford)

[notin]

He's Nick Pivetta with a higher ceiling. I guess his xFIP was pretty decent prior to last year, but I just think his peripherals are dogshit. Can you trust him to be more than a #4? That's not really what the Sox need.

 

If Breslow’s preference is velocity, Giolito is #4 among free agent SP, behind Snell, Clevinger and Montgomery. (Not counting NPB pitchers, for whom I have no data.)

 

Clevinger certainly seems like a probable target…

Edited November 7, 2023 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To me, ideally, we'd start 2024 with Sale and Pivetta penciled in as our #5. If Sale is healthy, Pivetta is a long reliever- joining Houck, Crawford and Whitlock in that role.

 

That, of course, assumes we add 3 SP'ers better than Crawford/Houck, and this is the "realistic thread," so more likely it might be set up like this:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale

SP5 Pivetta (Houck/Crawford)

 

I think somehow your computer mistakenly reposted a thread from the '22 or '23 winter... or someone hijacked your laptop and is typing a joke for SP4...

[notin]

To me, ideally, we'd start 2024 with Sale and Pivetta penciled in as our #5. If Sale is healthy, Pivetta is a long reliever- joining Houck, Crawford and Whitlock in that role.

 

That, of course, assumes we add 3 SP'ers better than Crawford/Houck, and this is the "realistic thread," so more likely it might be set up like this:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale

SP5 Pivetta (Houck/Crawford)

 

In the off-season, teams really need to queue up to SP10. If Houck goes (and stays!) in the bullpen, you only go to SP6.

 

It’s possible 8-10 come from the set of Walter, Drohan, Gambrell, Van Belle and Santo. But the Sox presumably get a SP or two on a minor league deal to fill some depth…

[moonslav59]

I think somehow your computer mistakenly reposted a thread from the '22 or '23 winter... or someone hijacked your laptop and is typing a joke for SP4...

 

I'm firmly on record for not counting on Sale for even 1 GS. This list is what I think the Sox will go with, and they will be disappointed, again. Forced to use Houck or Crawford as a SP. again, Fail to make the playoffs, again.

 

IMO, Pivetta/Sale should be our 5th SP'er.

 

We need to ADD 3 SP'ERS!

 

Everything else is secondary.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm firmly on record for not counting on Sale for even 1 GS. This list is what I think the Sox will go with, and they will be disappointed, again. Forced to use Houck or Crawford as a SP. again, Fail to make the playoffs, again.

 

IMO, Pivetta/Sale should be our 5th SP'er.

 

We need to ADD 3 SP'ERS!

 

Everything else is secondary.

 

Man, we need Brez to land a big fish asap. This forum is nowhere without moon optimism.

[mvp 78]

I think they have Teel undervalued due to a small sample size of work.

 

For some reason, they have had Yorke high for a long time. I don't know why.

 

I think they do a decent job with MLB guys, but the MiLB guys are just complete shots in the dark. I'm not sure where they get those values from.

[mvp 78]

To me, ideally, we'd start 2024 with Sale and Pivetta penciled in as our #5. If Sale is healthy, Pivetta is a long reliever- joining Houck, Crawford and Whitlock in that role.

 

That, of course, assumes we add 3 SP'ers better than Crawford/Houck, and this is the "realistic thread," so more likely it might be set up like this:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale

SP5 Pivetta (Houck/Crawford)

 

Yeah, I just don't see the point in adding another pitcher much worse than Bello if they really want to compete. Another guy down i the Pivetta/Houck/Crawford range just seems like a waste to me too.

[moonslav59]

Man, we need Brez to land a big fish asap. This forum is nowhere without moon optimism.

 

I'm not optimistic we add 3 solid SP'er. I'm not sure we add 2.

 

My guess is we add 1 plus some #4-5 slot type, someone we already have 5 like him.

[moonslav59]

I'm starting to think signing Garver might be a good idea for a RHB, but with Teel in the system, I'm not sure. I guess we could trade Garver, later, if Teel is ready.

[mvp 78]

I'm starting to think signing Garver might be a good idea for a RHB, but with Teel in the system, I'm not sure. I guess we could trade Garver, later, if Teel is ready.

 

Or trade Wong?

[moonslav59]

Or trade Wong?

 

Sure, when Teel is ready. We could have Garver or Teel DH when not catching.

 

I guess it depends on how many years we give Garver and when Teel is ML ready.

 

Garver is will be 33, next year. He has never had more than 360 PAs in a ML season. That is worrisome, even for a catcher. His numbers are rather astounding, though:

 

He's averaged 34 HRs per 650 PAs since 2021. Couple that with a .346 OBP (.370 in '23) and I'm liking him, more and more.

 

He has a career .825 OPS (123 OPS+) and his OPS+, last year, was 134.

.795 v R

.885 v L

 

His (RH'd) bat looks better than Duvall's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Direct quote from MLB.com headline: Yanks poised to blow

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Signings

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline was July 30 at 6 p.m. ET. - Tracking every Trade Deadline deal

[notin]

I'm starting to think signing Garver might be a good idea for a RHB, but with Teel in the system, I'm not sure. I guess we could trade Garver, later, if Teel is ready.

 

If the Sox want to act like the Sox again, not filling the MLB roster because of some kid in AA is a bad place to start…

[moonslav59]

If the Sox want to act like the Sox again, not filling the MLB roster because of some kid in AA is a bad place to start…

 

It probably won't be a factor, unless they think Teel might be ML ready to start 2025, but even then, maybe not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've always liked the idea of striking first this offseason, and swooping right in on targets for next year and beyond.

 

Yes, that will mean overpaying for free agents anticipating bidding wars or trading top prospects for available big leaguers. You get what you pay for -- at least on screen (but not always, as Sox fans have seen, on the mound).

 

A NESN.com article today calls it "talent acquisition" -- which, taken literally, doesn't just mean plug in a body to fill a hole. We've already got plenty of guys who are just ok -- "if everything breaks right", and they can "stay healthy" to maximize their one or two legit skills... Go get somebody good.

 

Sign Montgomery, trade for George Kirby. BTV accepts Mayer and Duran...

[moonslav59]

I've always liked the idea of striking first this offseason, and swooping right in on targets for next year and beyond.

 

Yes, that will mean overpaying for free agents anticipating bidding wars or trading top prospects for available big leaguers. You get what you pay for -- at least on screen (but not always, as Sox fans have seen, on the mound).

 

A NESN.com article today calls it "talent acquisition" -- which, taken literally, doesn't just mean plug in a body to fill a hole. We've already got plenty of guys who are just ok -- "if everything breaks right", and they can "stay healthy" to maximize their one or two legit skills... Go get somebody good.

 

Sign Montgomery, trade for George Kirby. BTV accepts Mayer and Duran...

 

I'd do that, easily. Kirby has 5 years of control.

 

I doubt SEA does it, even if we add Yorke.

[moonslav59]

Forget about what FAs and trade targets are available, which position do you think is a higher need?

 

2B (back up SS/3B):

Urias, Reyes, DHam (AAA)

 

CF/RF:

Dugo, Rafaela, Abreu (Rosier AAA) + Duran or Refsnyder, when not playing LF.

 

I see reasons for picking either one.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Forget about what FAs and trade targets are available, which position do you think is a higher need?

 

2B (back up SS/3B):

Urias, Reyes, DHam (AAA)

 

CF/RF:

Dugo, Rafaela, Abreu (Rosier AAA) + Duran or Refsnyder, when not playing LF.

 

I see reasons for picking either one.

 

 

A power-hitting right-handed bat that doesn't automatically K when it doesn't HR.

 

A guy like that is more likely to be found for a corner outfield position, rather than second base. He'll be costly, and subsequently require a commitment for a minimum-wage CF like Rafalea or Duran (whichever one isn't traded). Once secured, it will be a lot easier to find a good glove man for second base -- until Mayer makes it and Story moves over.

 

A longshot deal for Trout wouldn't change this plan, as he'd probably become a LF at Fenway to maximize his 30s...

[moonslav59]

A power-hitting right-handed bat that doesn't automatically K when it doesn't HR.

 

A guy like that is more likely to be found for a corner outfield position, rather than second base. He'll be costly, and subsequently require a commitment for a minimum-wage CF like Rafalea or Duran (whichever one isn't traded). Once secured, it will be a lot easier to find a good glove man for second base -- until Mayer makes it and Story moves over.

 

A longshot deal for Trout wouldn't change this plan, as he'd probably become a LF at Fenway to maximize his 30s...

 

It does seem easier to find a good RHB for RF than 2B. I tried to avoid that part of the equation by wording my question the way I did, but that is a reality.

 

Garver could be an option for that RHB, which would mean we could focus on pitching only, and roll the dice at 2B and OF with what we have (or swap Duvall for Dugo and double up on improving our RHBs.)

[notin]

A power-hitting right-handed bat that doesn't automatically K when it doesn't HR.

 

A guy like that is more likely to be found for a corner outfield position, rather than second base. He'll be costly, and subsequently require a commitment for a minimum-wage CF like Rafalea or Duran (whichever one isn't traded). Once secured, it will be a lot easier to find a good glove man for second base -- until Mayer makes it and Story moves over.

 

A longshot deal for Trout wouldn't change this plan, as he'd probably become a LF at Fenway to maximize his 30s...

 

Trout is a part time player.

 

Ironically, the two positions that have had high ISO and K% under 20% in MLB are corner OF and 2b.

 

However, I’m not sure Betts, Acuna, Altuve, and Semien are available. Maybe Arenado or Machado?

[mvp 78]

If the Sox want to act like the Sox again, not filling the MLB roster because of some kid in AA is a bad place to start…

 

And you need 2 Catchers anyway? I don't see any reason not to pair Garver and Teel unless you see more value in pairing Teel and Wong. However, Wong's skills behind the plate are mainly based on his arm and Teel already has that part down. What's he going to learn from Wong there?

[mvp 78]

I've always liked the idea of striking first this offseason, and swooping right in on targets for next year and beyond.

 

Yes, that will mean overpaying for free agents anticipating bidding wars or trading top prospects for available big leaguers. You get what you pay for -- at least on screen (but not always, as Sox fans have seen, on the mound).

 

A NESN.com article today calls it "talent acquisition" -- which, taken literally, doesn't just mean plug in a body to fill a hole. We've already got plenty of guys who are just ok -- "if everything breaks right", and they can "stay healthy" to maximize their one or two legit skills... Go get somebody good.

 

Sign Montgomery, trade for George Kirby. BTV accepts Mayer and Duran...

 

Would SEA want to do that deal? They already have a pretty good SS.