9/4/23 Red Sox in St. Pete's Tropicana Field to compete with Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10

[Maxbialystock]

What you say is true regarding today's game, but for the whole season the Rays have been better in all four things, which is reflected in their W/L record compared to the SOX.

 

Agree. The Rays have a terrific system for finding and developing talent at relatively low cost, and the results on the field of play are impressive to see.

 

To some degree, one can argue the Dodgers (who have a former Rays executive) are doing something similar, but are also willing to spend big for some players. The two teams have similar records: Dodgers 84-52; Rays 83-55. However, the Dodgers payroll, 6th highest in MLB, is $239M; and the Rays payroll is $79M, 27th highest in MLB.

 

I do think that both the Rays and the Dodgers are simply smarter than the Sox about finding and developing baseball talent.

 

And right now my favorite--but no doubt unfair--example is Brasier, who was a disaster for the Sox for two months and has been lights out for two months with the Dodgers. Kike might be another example although, honestly, I don't think the Sox miss Kike.

[moonslav59]

Agree. The Rays have a terrific system for finding and developing talent at relatively low cost, and the results on the field of play are impressive to see.

 

To some degree, one can argue the Dodgers (who have a former Rays executive) are doing something similar, but are also willing to spend big for some players. The two teams have similar records: Dodgers 84-52; Rays 83-55. However, the Dodgers payroll, 6th highest in MLB, is $239M; and the Rays payroll is $79M, 27th highest in MLB.

 

I do think that both the Rays and the Dodgers are simply smarter than the Sox about finding and developing baseball talent.

 

The Rays are very good at identifying and acquiring ML and miL talent on other teams, while timing almost perfectly when the players they trade away are at their exact point of the start of decline.

 

I might argue this is their strongest suit.

 

Their record of acquiring players that go on to have career years, sometimes just for 1-2 years is astounding. (Some are then traded or non tendered in 1-3 years.)

 

Their record of dealing away apparently good players right before a serious decline in uncanny.

 

Yes, they have drafted and developed pretty well, but I put ATL, BAL and LAD above them in that area- maybe tehre are even more teams, but I am no expert on even our farm, let alone other teams.

 

[Maxbialystock]

My complaint is with Bloom for allocating $100 million plus to Yoshida, and $10 million to the rotation.

 

Plus I do put a lot of stock in WAR, and Yoshida's WAR has been crushed by his defense and baserunning. He should absolutely be a DH.

 

Are you unaware that a DH automatically gets a negative DWAR? JDM's is -0.8.

 

I do agree that Yoshida's overall WAR, +1.4, is a key factor to consider, but I also think there will continue be games in which Cora will want to have someone else DH and Yoshida to play LF, which is the perfect position for less gifted outfielders. He played LF yesterday and acquitted himself quite well. That also allowed Turner to DH and Casas to play 1B.

[moonslav59]

Are you unaware that a DH automatically gets a negative DWAR? JDM's is -0.8.

 

 

JD played LF in 3 games.

[Maxbialystock]

The Rays are very good at identifying and acquiring ML and miL talent on other teams, while timing almost perfectly when the players they trade away are at their exact point of the start of decline.

 

I might argue this is their strongest suit.

 

Their record of acquiring players that go on to have career years, sometimes just for 1-2 years is astounding. (Some are then traded or non tendered in 1-3 years.)

 

Their record of dealing away apparently good players right before a serious decline in uncanny.

 

Yes, they have drafted and developed pretty well, but I put ATL, BAL and LAD above them in that area- maybe tehre are even more teams, but I am no expert on even our farm, let alone other teams.

 

 

I cannot contest your comment about the Rays incredible timing on letting players go and/or acquiring them because I don't keep track.

 

As for finding baseball talent and developing it, you could be right that the Dodgers, Braves, and even the Orioles have been better. However, to me the key point is that the Sox have been lousy at it and over-relied on buying talent developed by other teams. Brasier is just the latest example of the ineptitude of the Sox coaches.

[moonslav59]

I cannot contest your comment about the Rays incredible timing on letting players go and/or acquiring them because I don't keep track.

 

As for finding baseball talent and developing it, you could be right that the Dodgers, Braves, and even the Orioles have been better. However, to me the key point is that the Sox have been lousy at it and over-relied on buying talent developed by other teams. Brasier is just the latest example of the ineptitude of the Sox coaches.

 

We have been "lousy,"for the stretch from Devers in 2017 to this season, but that might be turning around

 

BTW, from 2017 to today, we were developing Casas, Bello, Devers, Rafaela and others.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you unaware that a DH automatically gets a negative DWAR? JDM's is -0.8.

 

Completely forgot about that, to be honest.

[Maxbialystock]

JD played LF in 3 games.

 

I know. But to say he got a -0.8 DWAR for three freaking games is absurd.

[moonslav59]

Completely forgot about that, to be honest.

 

So, if this is about bWAR, Yoshida at DH (-1.8) will have a lower bWAR than if he stays in LF (-1.4 in 2023?)

[moonslav59]

I know. But to say he got a -0.8 DWAR for three freaking games is absurd.

 

So is him gaining 1.0 dWAR in 3 games:

 

-1.8 ad DH full time

 

-0.8 at DH for all but 3 games.

[Bellhorn04]

So, if this is about bWAR, Yoshida at DH (-1.8) will have a lower bWAR than if he stays in LF (-1.4 in 2023?)

 

Further review required.

[moonslav59]

Further review required.

 

It's a bit confusing.

[Maxbialystock]

We have been "lousy,"for the stretch from Devers in 2017 to this season, but that might be turning around

 

BTW, from 2017 to today, we were developing Casas, Bello, Devers, Rafaela and others.

 

I only know what I see on the field of play.

 

That said, you have a much better grasp of what's going on in the Sox system than do I. Of the four you mention, I think Bello and Casas have progressed nicely, that Rafaela has proven nothing, and that Devers may have decided good is plenty good enough now that he has that big contract.

[Maxbialystock]

So is him gaining 1.0 dWAR in 3 games:

 

-1.8 ad DH full time

 

-0.8 at DH for all but 3 games.

 

I did not know they had DWAR's for DH's. My goodness gracious.

 

Right now JDM's overall WAR is 1.1 for 97 games--with an OPS of .856 plus 25 dingers and 78 rbi's. His salary is $10M.

 

Yoshida's overall WAR is +1.4 for 121 games--with an OPS of .821 plus 15 dingers and 68 rbi's. His salary is $16M.

[moonslav59]

I only know what I see on the field of play.

 

That said, you have a much better grasp of what's going on in the Sox system than do I. Of the four you mention, I think Bello and Casas have progressed nicely, that Rafaela has proven nothing, and that Devers may have decided good is plenty good enough now that he has that big contract.

 

Certainly several teams have way more homegrown stars than we do.

 

It's one of the key reasons I don't blame Bloom for our record from 2020-2022. It's really hard to consistently win with next to nobody being called up for 4 straight years. When you see teams like TBR, ATL, LAD and BAL calling up 2-3 some years, it really puts our situation in context.

 

I do see a change beginning, and a lot of hopes that it will be steady, going forward.

 

2017: Devers

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

 

2021: Houck & Whitlock

2022: Bello, Duran, Wong, Crawford & Wink

2023: Casas, Abreu, Rafaela, Murphy, Walter, EValdez, DHam & Bernardino, if you count old prospects.

 

Of course, these guys aren't Arozerena or McClanahan, but change usually comes slowly, and I see an uptick in quality and quantity over the past 2 summers.

[mvp 78]

Certainly several teams have way more homegrown stars than we do.

 

It's one of the key reasons I don't blame Bloom for our record from 2020-2022. It's really hard to consistently win with next to nobody being called up for 4 straight years. When you see teams like TBR, ATL, LAD and BAL calling up 2-3 some years, it really puts our situation in context.

 

I do see a change beginning, and a lot of hopes that it will be steady, going forward.

 

2017: Devers

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

 

2021: Houck & Whitlock

2022: Bello, Duran, Wong, Crawford & Wink

2023: Casas, Abreu, Rafaela, Murphy, Walter, EValdez, DHam & Bernardino, if you count old prospects.

 

Of course, these guys aren't Arozerena or McClanahan, but change usually comes slowly, and I see an uptick in quality and quantity over the past 2 summers.

 

Your "none" from 18-20 is wrong though.

[moonslav59]

Here are some fWAR numbers of Sox players and JD

 

FWAR Player (Off/Def)

2.6 Dugo (+6.0/+1.8)

2.6 Devers (+11.9/-5.1)

2.4 Duvall (+15.9/-1.6)

2.3 Duran (+13.3/-3.1)

1.8 Turner (+15.4/-14.1, some at 1B & 3B)

1.6 Casas (+15.4/-14.8)

1.4 JD Mart (+10.1/-9.7, almost all at DH)

1.0 Yoshida (+7.8/-14.8)

[moonslav59]

Your "none" from 18-20 is wrong though.

 

Good point. Some came up and fizzled and Beeks & Buttrey were traded. Did I miss any more?

[moonslav59]

Your "none" from 18-20 is wrong though.

 

Looking at our top prospects list from 2015-2019, I'm not sure exactly who was called up after Devers in summer 2017, maybe....

 

Chavis

STravis

Shawaryn

Beeks

DHern

Lakins

 

maybe more...

 

[Maxbialystock]

Here are some fWAR numbers of Sox players and JD

 

FWAR Player (Off/Def)

2.6 Dugo (+6.0/+1.8)

2.6 Devers (+11.9/-5.1)

2.4 Duvall (+15.9/-1.6)

2.3 Duran (+13.3/-3.1)

1.8 Turner (+15.4/-14.1, some at 1B & 3B)

1.6 Casas (+15.4/-14.8)

1.4 JD Mart (+10.1/-9.7, almost all at DH)

1.0 Yoshida (+7.8/-14.8)

 

You may trust/believe those fWAR numbers, but I sure don't. The overall fWAR's number in the left column are OK, but the offense and defense numbers are way out of whack. That is, if WAR still means "wins above replacement."

[Bellhorn04]

You may trust/believe those fWAR numbers, but I sure don't. The overall fWAR's number in the left column are OK, but the offense and defense numbers are way out of whack. That is, if WAR still means "wins above replacement."

 

The component numbers can look screwy because they also do things called "positional adjustments" and so on. But the total numbers make sense.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It's a bit confusing.

 

 

The elephant in the SOX room isn't Masa's play in LF. It is starting pitching. Imho, if Bloom fails to pick-up a couple of decent starters for next year, then the SOX will be breathing fumes in the AL East again.

[mvp 78]

The elephant in the SOX room isn't Masa's play in LF. It is starting pitching. Imho, if Bloom fails to pick-up a couple of decent starters for next year, then the SOX will be breathing fumes in the AL East again.

 

Last DAMN place most likely.

[mvp 78]

Good point. Some came up and fizzled and Beeks & Buttrey were traded. Did I miss any more?

 

Yes, I mentioned a bunch the last time you posted that nonsense.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I mentioned a bunch the last time you posted that nonsense.

 

Here you go.

 

Miscellaneous other graduated players not listed after 2017:

Darwinzon Hernandez

Brian Johnson

Tzu Wei Lin

Phillips Valdez

Colten Brewer

Josh Taylor

Marcus Walden

Jacques

Ort

Arauz

[moonslav59]

You may trust/believe those fWAR numbers, but I sure don't. The overall fWAR's number in the left column are OK, but the offense and defense numbers are way out of whack. That is, if WAR still means "wins above replacement."

 

fWAR also includes baserunning and positional adjustments based on the value each position has.

 

I don’t see and of the right side numbers out of whack, comparatively speaking.

[moonslav59]

Here you go.

 

The list looks worse that I thought.

[mvp 78]

The list looks worse that I thought.

 

Your list said "none."

[mvp 78]

I mean, you're calling Walter and "DHam" as additions for 2023, might as well include all the other additions from previous years including good players like Josh Taylor (0.9 fWAR 2019).

[moonslav59]

Your list said "none."

 

I get it and admitted it.

 

I amended the list and acknowledged yours.

 

What more do I need to do?