5/19 Sox @ Padres

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

So you think Devers can’t be more disciplined while not changing his approach?

 

The 1st HR Devers hit tonight was out of the strike zone. Devers is who he is and shouldn't be messed with. What he does at the plate is pure instinct and he has been very successful.

[moonslav59]

The way I see it, he can be more disciplined with the same approach.

 

I don't understand what this means.

[iortiz]

Just about every great hitter has great stretches. It's easy to say, "just do that more often."

 

His best OPS+ seasons:

2022 at 141

2021 at 134

2019 at 132

 

He is improving.

 

His highest K seasons:

2021 at 143

2018 at 121

2019 at 119

2022 at 114

(3 of those seasons are his top OPS+ seasons.)

 

Look at his hot streaks?

 

Best season by OPS+ was 2022. Hottest streak?

April 29-Aug 2 with a 1.064 OPS

Guess what?

55Ks in 68 games and 299 PAs. That's no better than the rest of the 2022 season.

 

Tell me about the times he showed more discipline and did better. I'm open to persuasion.

So his best OPS season was when he had his lowest K?

 

That’s exactly what I’m talking about mate and… did he change his approach? Not. At. All.

[iortiz]

I don't understand what this means.

 

Not sure which part.

[iortiz]

The 1st HR Devers hit tonight was out of the strike zone. Devers is who he is and shouldn't be messed with. What he does at the plate is pure instinct and he has been very successful.

 

He will always swing outside the zone, but the key thing is how often. If he somehow can figure out that, he will be a beast.

[moonslav59]

The 1st HR Devers hit tonight was out of the strike zone. Devers is who he is and shouldn't be messed with. What he does at the plate is pure instinct and he has been very successful.

 

He's hit a ton of big hits that were out of the zone.

 

Here is some interesting data among Sox hitters from 2018-2023:

 

Top Out of Zone Swinger

39% Devers

34% Vaz

34% JD

31% Bogey

 

Top In Zone Swingers

78% JD

77% Devers

74% Beni

71% JBJ

(Bogey was at 62% behind several others)

 

Differential between contact rates In Zone vs Out of Zone:

+28% Kike

+25% JD

+23% Dugo

+20% Bogey

+19% JBJ

+18% Betts

+15% Vaz

+14% Beni

+13% Devers

 

 

[moonslav59]

So his best OPS season was when he had his lowest K?

 

That’s exactly what I’m talking about mate and… did he change his approach? Not. At. All.

 

No. He had less in other seasons...just not good OPS+, those years or not many PAs.

 

What about his second best season in 4+ seasons having the most Ks?

[moonslav59]

Not sure which part.

 

If his approach is undisciplined, how is becoming more disciplined going to happen without changing anything?

[moonslav59]

Devers has been pretty consistent with his OUT of Zone swing rate, except for 2019- the year he had his 3rd best OPS+.

 

Maybe this shows my point in a better way...

 

All 4 seasons with 490+ PAs

O-Swing

72% 2019 (3rd best OPS+ at 132)

67% 2021 (2nd best OPS+ at 134) & 2022 (Best OPS+ at 141)

64% 2018 (Worst OPS+ at 94- way behind the others.)

 

While his worst O Swing rate was just his 3rd best OPS+ year our of 4, his worst year OPS+, by far was his best O-Swing year.

 

Are you sure you want to bring is O-Swing rate down to his 2018 numbers?

Edited May 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[jad]

But we all knew that, didn't we?

 

I really, really like Bogaerts, who was in on two of the Sox World Series wins. But the money was too much for a guy his age.

 

Besides, who needs Bogey. We have Storey. Well, sometimes we do, I mean, you know, when he's on the field.

[jad]

The 1st HR Devers hit tonight was out of the strike zone. Devers is who he is and shouldn't be messed with. What he does at the plate is pure instinct and he has been very successful.

 

Yup.

[Bellhorn04]

If his approach is undisciplined, how is becoming more disciplined going to happen without changing anything?

 

I'm firmly in the camp that would just let the man keep doing what he's doing and wouldn't so much as suggest a different batting glove.

[moonslav59]

I'm firmly in the camp that would just let the man keep doing what he's doing and wouldn't so much as suggest a different batting glove.

 

Exactly. He likely makes adjustments here and there and may learn over time, not to swing at pitches he doesn't hit very well. He's only 26 and will probably improve without making any changes, due to experience and refining his own approach.

 

Plus, it's not as simple as just saying lay off ____ type of pitch. Pitch recognition is done in such a small fraction of time, it might mess a hitter up by asking him to start thinking while doing what comes naturally- without thinking.

 

Like from that book I mentioned "Out of Your Mind," that speaks to the idea that once you start thinking about something during play, you lose that edge.

 

[jad]

You know, Luciano, a lot of us weren't happy about your approach to that C. Now we don't sing, mind you, but we listen to a lot of music, and we really think what you need to do is take on a lot more baritone roles.