2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

It kind of jumps out at me, how many Bloom prospect trade acquisitions are taking a big step forward, this year in their numbers, anyway:

 

Wong (Betts trade) joining Verdugo in starting off as a career season. (.704 OPS and 8th on team in PAs)

 

Winckowski (Beni trade): exploding off the charts at the MLB level (2.15 ERA and 5th on the team in IP.)

 

E Valdez (Vaz Trade) .800 OPS at MLB level in 68 PAs (13th on team and rising)

 

W Abreu (Vaz Trade) .864 OPS is the best in his minor league career (1st year in AAA)

 

Hamilton (Renfroe Trade) .862 OPS is best in minor league career (also first season in AAA)

 

Corey Rosier (Groome Trade) .818 in first year at AA (22 SB in 30 games)

 

Max Ferguson (Groome Trade) .742 in A+, but .386 OBP (better than career .707) 19 SB in 32 games

 

Theo Denlinger (Frank German Trade) 1.84 ERA at AA (.392 OPSA!!!! and 0.818 WHIP)

 

Luis de la Rosa (Beni Trade) 2.88 ERA at A (.576 OPSA) & Grant Gambrell (Beni) 4.34 ERA A+/AA

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure Rosier is much to note. He's a singles guy who will probably just get by on speed until he gets to the upper levels, same with Max Ferguson.

 

SoxProspects keeps saying that the other shoe is going to drop for Hamilton and that he'll go back to his last year numbers, but he's had a really strong May. Maybe he's turning a corner? Not sure what he can do at the MLB level, but there's lots of use if he can be a bench guy (MIF/OF) with some pop and massive speed.

 

Denlinger should probably be promoted to AAA soon as that bullpen sucks.

[notin]

It kind of jumps out at me, how many Bloom prospect trade acquisitions are taking a big step forward, this year in their numbers, anyway:

 

Wong (Betts trade) joining Verdugo in starting off as a career season. (.704 OPS and 8th on team in PAs)

 

Winckowski (Beni trade): exploding off the charts at the MLB level (2.15 ERA and 5th on the team in IP.)

 

E Valdez (Vaz Trade) .800 OPS at MLB level in 68 PAs (13th on team and rising)

 

W Abreu (Vaz Trade) .864 OPS is the best in his minor league career (1st year in AAA)

 

Hamilton (Renfroe Trade) .862 OPS is best in minor league career (also first season in AAA)

 

Corey Rosier (Groome Trade) .818 in first year at AA (22 SB in 30 games)

 

Max Ferguson (Groome Trade) .742 in A+, but .386 OBP (better than career .707) 19 SB in 32 games

 

Theo Denlinger (Frank German Trade) 1.84 ERA at AA (.392 OPSA!!!! and 0.818 WHIP)

 

Luis de la Rosa (Beni Trade) 2.88 ERA at A (.576 OPSA) & Grant Gambrell (Beni) 4.34 ERA A+/AA

 

Except Binelas, who looks completely overmatched in AA this year with 46 K in 106 PA. And a dazzling 7 walks…

[moonslav59]

Except Binelas, who looks completely overmatched in AA this year with 46 K in 106 PA. And a dazzling 7 walks…

 

Oh, there are mosre busts than just him. I was just pointing out the good ones or the turn-arounds.

 

Several prospects are gone.

 

[moonslav59]

Big night for the Sox farm teams...

 

WOO won 13-3

Dermody w 11 Ks and 1BB (7IP, 7H, 3 ER)

Hamilton homered twice. (OPS back up to .897)

Sogard, Goodrum & Palka all homered

Abreu 1-3 w 3B & 2BB

Alfaro 2-5 w 2B

 

POR won 6-4

Liu 5.1 IP 1H, 1ER, 4BB, 8K

Scott w 2 HRs & 4 rbi

Yorke 0-2 w 3BB

Meidroth 1-3 w 2BB

 

GRE won 9-0

Bastardo 4 IP, 3H, 0ER, 4BB, 6K

Mayer w 2HRs (OPS to .963)

2-5 Paulino & Jordan

 

SAL completed the minors sweep, but nobody homered twice.

E R-C K'd 10 in 5 IP (1BB) but 3 ERs

3-3 Chacon w 3B

Liendo homered

2-5 Anthony

 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

MAYer: 1196 OPS this month for Marcelo

[sk7326]

Kiley McDaniel at ESPN did his updated Top 50

 

Mayer at #3

Roman Anthony at #49

 

Anthony, meanwhile, was a classic polarizing prospect whose stock dipped a bit after a couple of bad summer events (which teams heavily value because of the wood bats and strong competition) followed by a strong high school spring against decent competition in South Florida. He has one of the lowest chase and swing rates in the minors to go with the best age-adjusted exit velos in the minors, a strong bat-to-ball foundation and the athleticism to be a solid right fielder. He could stand to be a bit more aggressive and lift the ball more, but those are relatively easy adjustments.

[moonslav59]

Kiley McDaniel at ESPN did his updated Top 50

 

Mayer at #3

Roman Anthony at #49

 

No Drohan?

 

Wonder how much Rafaela dropped.

[sk7326]

No Drohan?

 

Wonder how much Rafaela dropped.

 

he needs to take a pitch once or twice a week ...

[moonslav59]

Drohan got shelled, again in AAA

2.2 IP

6 H

5 ER

3 BB

1 K

Dalbec homers, but Woo got smashed 15-2.

 

 

[mvp 78]

Drohan got shelled, again in AAA

2.2 IP

6 H

5 ER

3 BB

1 K

Dalbec homers, but Woo got smashed 15-2.

 

 

 

Yup, he's going to need to learn to pitch to more advanced hitters. This may be the impact of getting rid of short season ball. Low A is now the talent level of short season. High A is now the talent level of Low A. AA is closer to High A than what it used to be. AAA is a much bigger jump than ever.

[moonslav59]

Yup, he's going to need to learn to pitch to more advanced hitters. This may be the impact of getting rid of short season ball. Low A is now the talent level of short season. High A is now the talent level of Low A. AA is closer to High A than what it used to be. AAA is a much bigger jump than ever.

 

I'm curious to see how Hickey will do in AAA, but AA is still a proving ground in many ways, and he has raked it.

[mvp 78]

I'm curious to see how Hickey will do in AAA, but AA is still a proving ground in many ways, and he has raked it.

 

He has taken to it much better than a guy like Kavadas. I didn't have Hickey on my list to be strapped to a rocket, but I'm glad to see it. He's had a big bat since the beginning of last season.

[moonslav59]

He has taken to it much better than a guy like Kavadas. I didn't have Hickey on my list to be strapped to a rocket, but I'm glad to see it. He's had a big bat since the beginning of last season.

 

Kavadas is doing a little better, after a pretty bad start to AA, but nothing to make me feel like he's on a bee line to the bigs.

 

The risers are encouraging, but we've had a bunch of top prospects looking very unimpressive, and now Drohan is struggling at his next level, after a rocket jump.

 

It is still early, and prospects go through rough patches, all the time, but here is how I would group the starts to 2023:

 

Impressive:

Mayer A+

Yorke AA

Drohan AA (despite his 2 game slump)

EValdez MLB

Hickey AA

E R-C A-

Jordan A+

Hamilton AAA

Abreu AAA

 

Good:

Meidroth AA

Guerrero AA

Bonaci A+ (time to test him at AA)

 

Meh:

Anthony A-

Romero on IL

Paulino A+

Lugo AA

Kavadas AA

Not so good:

Bleis A-

 

Yuck!

Rafaela AA

Mata AAA

Perales A-

Walter AAA

Wikelman A+

Murphy AAA

 

Note all the "YUCK!" pitchers.

 

(I did this very quickly.)

[sk7326]

Kavadas is doing a little better, after a pretty bad start to AA, but nothing to make me feel like he's on a bee line to the bigs.

 

The risers are encouraging, but we've had a bunch of top prospects looking very unimpressive, and now Drohan is struggling at his next level, after a rocket jump.

 

It is still early, and prospects go through rough patches, all the time, but here is how I would group the starts to 2023:

 

Impressive:

Mayer A+

Yorke AA

Drohan AA (despite his 2 game slump)

EValdez MLB

Hickey AA

E R-C A-

Jordan A+

Hamilton AAA

Abreu AAA

 

Good:

Meidroth AA

Guerrero AA

Bonaci A+ (time to test him at AA)

 

Meh:

Anthony A-

Romero on IL

Paulino A+

Lugo AA

Kavadas AA

Not so good:

Bleis A-

 

Yuck!

Rafaela AA

Mata AAA

Perales A-

Walter AAA

Wikelman A+

Murphy AAA

 

Note all the "YUCK!" pitchers.

 

(I did this very quickly.)

 

Yeah. Rafaela has been bad so far.

 

That said - and this is the really hard part about looking at the lines and stuff for AA and below - we just don't know what the team's benchmarks are and what they are asking the players to do. From what I've read, the team is trying to do some surgery on Rafaela's approach at the plate ... and so the poor results have to be taken with a block of salt at least for now.

 

The AAA pitchers bother me much more because the big league team is sorta counting on them being able to at least be candidates to contribute.

[moonslav59]

Yeah. Rafaela has been bad so far.

 

That said - and this is the really hard part about looking at the lines and stuff for AA and below - we just don't know what the team's benchmarks are and what they are asking the players to do. From what I've read, the team is trying to do some surgery on Rafaela's approach at the plate ... and so the poor results have to be taken with a block of salt at least for now.

 

The AAA pitchers bother me much more because the big league team is sorta counting on them being able to at least be candidates to contribute.

 

You'd think if anything, the project on Rafaela would be to ask him to try and take more pitches.

 

That ain't happening, as far as I know.

[Old Red]

You'd think if anything, the project on Rafaela would be to ask him to try and take more pitches.

 

That ain't happening, as far as I know.

 

That is happening according to the Sea Dogs manager. They want him to take more pitches, and be more selective. Those talk shows come in handy sometimes, because they interview the Sea Dogs manger weekly.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Old Red

[sk7326]

You'd think if anything, the project on Rafaela would be to ask him to try and take more pitches.

 

That ain't happening, as far as I know.

 

Have to look at data I don't have clearly. But swings and misses are certainly not going to go down if you keep facing lots of 2 strike counts.

[moonslav59]

Have to look at data I don't have clearly. But swings and misses are certainly not going to go down if you keep facing lots of 2 strike counts.

 

I know. I'm not sure if he is or is not taking more pitches, this year. His stats don't show any more BBs.

 

9 BB in 145 ABs

 

2022:

28 BB in 481 ABs

[Dipre]

I know. I'm not sure if he is or is not taking more pitches, this year. His stats don't show any more BBs.

 

9 BB in 145 ABs

 

2022:

28 BB in 481 ABs

 

Ceddane Rafaela Pitchers per plate appearance (P/PA):

 

2022: 3.65

 

2023 (so far): 3.60

[moonslav59]

Ceddane Rafaela Pitchers per plate appearance (P/PA):

 

2022: 3.65

 

2023 (so far): 3.60

 

Thanks.

 

I'm sure the Sox have tried to get him to take more pitches. It is not happening, though.

[mvp 78]

Have to look at data I don't have clearly. But swings and misses are certainly not going to go down if you keep facing lots of 2 strike counts.

 

They are asking him to be "selective" not to simply just take more pitches. They don't want him to just sit around and get into an 0-2 count for the sake of doing so. He's still swinging out of his shoes more often than not. The only difference this year has been is that his SLG is down.

 

2022: 3.623 P/PA

2023: 3.600 P/PA

 

He's not taking any additional pitches per PA this season. In fact, it's in line with last season in AA.

 

Kavadas sees 4.732.

 

The player that I saw with a lower P/PA than Rafaela was Christian Koss, who is not know for having a very patient approach either.

[mvp 78]

Ceddane Rafaela Pitchers per plate appearance (P/PA):

 

2022: 3.65

 

2023 (so far): 3.60

 

I need to post quicker now...

[mvp 78]

Thanks.

 

I'm sure the Sox have tried to get him to take more pitches. It is not happening, though.

 

It's about swinging at the right pitches. Rafaela has a tendency to swing at anything his bat can reach. He needs to only swing at pitches he can make good contact on.

[moonslav59]

2022-2023 (combined) Minor League Leaders:

 

SB

1. Hamilton 93 (13 CS)

8. Ferguson 81 (8)

18. Rosier 62 (7)

40. Rafaela 48 (12)

 

HR

23T. Palka 33

23T. Kavadas 33

 

OPS

7. Kavadas .962 (Only one player has a higher OPS and more PAs)

39. Mayer .895

42. Valdez .893

116. Abreu .840

148. Rafaela .823

 

OBP

5. Kavadas .435 (nobody has more PAs and a higher OBP)

35. Abreu .396

38. Bonaci .394

48. Mayer .391

136. Ferguson .369

138. Valdez .369

146. Sogard .368

 

 

[moonslav59]

It's about swinging at the right pitches. Rafaela has a tendency to swing at anything his bat can reach. He needs to only swing at pitches he can make good contact on.

 

So, maybe pitchers have been throwing pitches closer to the zone than they did, last year, and that's why he's swung at more?

[Dipre]

So, maybe pitchers have been throwing pitches closer to the zone than they did, last year, and that's why he's swung at more?

 

That's not it. Dude likes to swing and swing hard. They want him to swing hard at his pitch.

[mvp 78]

2022-2023 (combined) Minor League Leaders:

 

SB

1. Hamilton 93 (13 CS)

8. Ferguson 81 (8)

18. Rosier 62 (7)

40. Rafaela 48 (12)

 

HR

23T. Palka 33

23T. Kavadas 33

 

OPS

7. Kavadas .962 (Only one player has a higher OPS and more PAs)

39. Mayer .895

42. Valdez .893

116. Abreu .840

148. Rafaela .823

 

OBP

5. Kavadas .435 (nobody has more PAs and a higher OBP)

35. Abreu .396

38. Bonaci .394

48. Mayer .391

136. Ferguson .369

138. Valdez .369

146. Sogard .368

 

 

 

Meidroth is 9th in OBP for 2023.

Hickey is 40th in OPS for 2023.

[moonslav59]

That's not it. Dude likes to swing and swing hard. They want him to swing hard at his pitch.

 

You are missing what the talk was about.

[Dipre]

You are missing what the talk was about.

 

No, I get the point. What I'm saying is that it's not about him taking more pitches, it's about swinging at strikes.