How much would you offer Eovaldi?

[moonslav59]

I really have serious doubts about the importance of FIP.

 

I do, too, and often argue against its overuse, but only in the context that there are some very good pitchers with low K rates and are poorly compared to others with high K rates who let up a lot of hits and BBs..

 

To see a pitcher drop that much in FIP is a warning sign, in my book. A lot has to do with his doubled HR/9 rate, but in a season where hitting and HRs are down, that number and FIP should jump out at us, even more.

 

How about fWAR?

-0.2 in 2019

0.9 in 2020 (pro-rate to 2.2)

5.6 in 2021

0.2 in 2022 (pro-rate to 1.1)

 

BAbip makes me wonder, if his 2022 numbers are a bit lucky.

.310 career and over .325 in 2020 and 2021, but .260 this year, despite these hard hit%'s:

39.7 2020

36.2 2021

43.4 2022

 

None of this worries you enough to back off a 4 year deal offer?

Edited May 15, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

Interesting reasoning, but I can't help disagreeing - are you surprised?

 

I think not going to the max for Betts was an ownership decision.

 

If you recall, Dombrowski failed to keep Scherzer in Detroit. Offered 6/$144, Max turned it down, DD wouldn't go higher. Or again, maybe his boss wouldn't go higher.

 

As we might be seeing with Bogaerts and Eovaldi, some players ask for the moon to avoid free agency when this close. Get them early and there are more risks, you can get a good deal. But waiting too long turns free agency a viable backup plan into an effective bargaining chip.

 

Like when JD Martinez was in AZ. In half a year there, he became an absolute legend. When extension talks came, his agent asked for $200 mill. AZ walked. Boras than showed the rest of ownship his huge treatise about why the King King of Slug was worth $200mill. And no one bought it. JD had to “settle” for a paltry 5 year $125mill.

 

Will we see the same scenario with Bogaerts and Eovaldi? And then will fans think whatever they get was the demand all along?

[notin]

I really have serious doubts about the importance of FIP.

 

Rick Porcello ruined it for you?

 

The league just might not be around to paying for it like they do (the actually less telling) ERA. But then within our lifetimes, we saw MLB ownership pay for RBI as if that was part of the skill set.

 

Just because it’s not valued yet doesn’t mean it will never be valuable…

[Old Red]

Of course it's up to Bloom, but it seems like you say every so-and-so is not worth it, except Bogey's hypothetical next contract.

 

If I provide a list, it's easy, in hindsight, to say we should have or could have offered more for so-and-so, but saying it at the time of the signing is what should be stated:

 

This past winter:

$43M x 3 Scherzer

$24M x 3 Stroman

$23M x 5 R Ray

$22M x 5 Gausman

$22M x 2 Rodon (opt out if 110+ IP)

$15M x 5 ERod (not an ace)

 

Where does Eovaldi fit in this list, to you, not Bloom?

 

The previous (COVID)winter:

$34M x 3 Bauer

 

The one before:

$36M x 9 Cole

$35M x 7 Strasburg

$28M x 3 Gibson

$24M x 5 Wheeler

$20M x 4 Ryu

$19M x 3 Keuchel

$17M x 5 Bumgarner

 

Looking at these lists makes me think we need to trade for an ace or get extremely lucky with our FA choice.

 

I’ll pass on them all, and Even ERod who I said I would have resigned at the time. Starting pitchers to me aren’t worth what they used to be, and if you can’t grow some on the farm, which the Red Sox are having trouble doing then it gets real expensive to go out, and get one, and then you have to be lucky to get a good one. I keep repeating that Evol is a career 62-66 record in other words a losing pitcher for his career that I don’t think is worth $20+M for any length of time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Give me a list. It’s not what I think is worth it, but what Bloom thinks, and he sees like what Hill, and Wacha are doing for little money, and short time, and I just can’t see him going big on a 33 yr old pitcher with a career 62-66 record.

 

Bloom and his brethren shrug at won-loss records for pitchers, especially since modern orgs intentionally yank starters before they can qualify for the W (under current, albeit now archaic, scoring rules).

 

And while none of us rationally expect Eovaldi to spearhead a rotation through his late-30s, is he any less of a workhorse or is his five-pitch repertoire any less of an arsenal than that of Scherzer or Verlander -- both pushing 40 and leading first-place staffs?

 

Granted, Nate's not a future Hall of Famer, but in terms of durability, both Scherzer and Verlander have had their stints on the geriatric IL or worn down from overuse at times, too.

[Old Red]

LOL, that is absolutely hilarious.

 

Cole crapped his pants in front of millions, and millions, and that’s what you paid millions, and millions for. Now that was hilarious.

[notin]

Bloom and his brethren shrug at won-loss records for pitchers, especially since modern orgs intentionally yank starters before they can qualify for the W (under current, albeit now archaic, scoring rules).

 

And while none of us rationally expect Eovaldi to spearhead a rotation through his late-30s, is he any less of a workhorse or is his five-pitch repertoire any less of an arsenal than that of Scherzer or Verlander -- both pushing 40 and leading first-place staffs?

 

Granted, Nate's not a future Hall of Famer, but in terms of durability, both Scherzer and Verlander have had their stints on the geriatric IL or worn down from overuse at times, too.

 

 

And they should shrug at W-L records. Eovaldi’s record is cutler 1-1. If that was representative of his actual talent, this thread wouldn’t exist…

[Bellhorn04]

Cole crapped his pants in front of millions, and millions, and that’s what you paid millions, and millions for. Now that was hilarious.

 

You're a hard man to please, you know.

 

You don't like Eovaldi because of his career old school numbers.

 

You don't like Cole, who has great career old school numbers, because of one postseason outing.

 

We're yet to hear of too many guys you actually do like. Bob Gibson, I suppose.

[Old Red]

And they should shrug at W-L records. Eovaldi’s record is cutler 1-1. If that was representative of his actual talent, this thread wouldn’t exist…

 

No matter how you slice it, and dice it to me Evol is still not worth $20M+ a year. Someone will pay him, but I don’t believe the Red Sox.

[Old Red]

You're a hard man to please, you know.

 

You don't like Eovaldi because of his career old school numbers.

 

You don't like Cole, who has great career old school numbers, because of one postseason outing.

 

We're yet to hear of too many guys you actually do like. Bob Gibson, I suppose.

 

Wrong assumptions. I would not pay any pitcher $300M +, and I wasn’t basing Cole on 1 postseason appearance, but only to point out the Yankees have not won anything with Cole, and his many millions.

[moonslav59]

I’ll pass on them all, and Even ERod who I said I would have resigned at the time. Starting pitchers to me aren’t worth what they used to be, and if you can’t grow some on the farm, which the Red Sox are having trouble doing then it gets real expensive to go out, and get one, and then you have to be lucky to get a good one. I keep repeating that Evol is a career 62-66 record in other words a losing pitcher for his career that I don’t think is worth $20+M for any length of time.

 

Is he worth $20M, this year?

 

You would not even offer him $20M/1 for 2023?

 

If no, you will have to hope this management team can turn around the pitcher farm pipeline of trade for an ace, or two.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong assumptions. I would not pay any pitcher $300M +, and I wasn’t basing Cole on 1 postseason appearance, but only to point out the Yankees have not won anything with Cole, and his many millions.

 

Yeah but you're still not saying who you actually like.

[moonslav59]

And they should shrug at W-L records. Eovaldi’s record is cutler 1-1. If that was representative of his actual talent, this thread wouldn’t exist…

 

If it was all about team wins per start, ERod would be the highest paid pitcher in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Yeah but you're still not saying who you actually like.

 

He says the farm cannot produce starters. He says not top FA pitchers are NOT worth it.

 

Trading for aces is the only option left.

[Old Red]

Is he worth $20M, this year?

 

You would not even offer him $20M/1 for 2023?

 

If no, you will have to hope this management team can turn around the pitcher farm pipeline of trade for an ace, or two.

 

Moon, no one knows what the 2023 will even remotely look like, so no I would not offer him $20M/1 for 2023. Do you know what the team will look like next year, and do you trust Bloom to put it together?

[Old Red]

He says the farm cannot produce starters. He says not top FA pitchers are NOT worth it.

 

Trading for aces is the only option left.

 

What has the farm grown for starters in the last 5 years, and who says you have to trade for an ace??

[Bellhorn04]

What has the farm grown for starters in the last 5 years, and who says you have to trade for an ace??

 

Jeez, you're all questions and no answers.

[Old Red]

Jeez, you're all questions and no answers.

 

I don’t have an answer for why the Sox can’t grow a starter on the farm? Well I guess you have to start for bad drafts. Ball, and Groome are two I can think of. Houck is a work in progress, but it’s a fact the Red Sox have had trouble in that area. You could even go back to Bard, and Barnes who were drafted as starters.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Moon, no one knows what the 2023 will even remotely look like, so no I would not offer him $20M/1 for 2023. Do you know what the team will look like next year, and do you trust Bloom to put it together?

 

I'm not pretending to know what the 2023 team will look like, and I don't think anyone is.

 

Many use this site to express their ideas on what we could or should do to make the team better going forward.

 

Sometimes it's hard to know if someone is saying what they want or what Bloom might want. Some think it's pointless to express any ideas that it seems like Bloom would not go for.

 

I would offer Eovalid $25M/1 and maybe $42M/2. If push comes to shove, maybe $45M/2. $60M/3 is pushing it, for me, but I realize overpaying is needed to keep our rotation strong- either that or trade away half the farm to try and find the next Sale.

[moonslav59]

What has the farm grown for starters in the last 5 years, and who says you have to trade for an ace??

 

Why are you acting like I'm saying we should or have counted on getting starters from the farm? (The jury is still out on Houck and Whiitlock as starters from our farm.)

 

Maybe, we will under this new management, but personally, I would not count on it.

 

Is your position that we don't need any aces to be highly competitive? I don't want to put words in your mouth, so why not tell us your idea of what would be a good way to build a winning staff. Then, people won't have to keep guessing what your ideas are. (Not Bloom's, but your ideas and plan.)

 

Forget the starters and build a strong pen?

 

Do you think we can win without an ace? (It has happened several times in MLB history, buy is this your wish?)

[moonslav59]

I don’t have an answer for why the Sox can’t grow a starter on the farm? Well I guess you have to start for bad drafts. Ball, and Groome are two I can think of. Houck is a work in progress, but it’s a fact the Red Sox have had trouble in that area. You could even go back to Bard, and Barnes who were drafted as starters.

 

No, what's your answer on how to fix the problem- not why we have the problem.

 

Put your plan out there.

[Old Red]

I'm not pretending to know what the 2023 team will look like, and I don't think anyone is.

 

Many use this site to express their ideas on what we could or should do to make the team better going forward.

 

Sometimes it's hard to know if someone is saying what they want or what Bloom might want. Some think it's pointless to express any ideas that it seems like Bloom would not go for.

 

I would offer Eovalid $25M/1 and maybe $42M/2. If push comes to shove, maybe $45M/2. $60M/3 is pushing it, for me, but I realize overpaying is needed to keep our rotation strong- either that or trade away half the farm to try and find the next Sale.

 

Wouldn’t you want to know what the rest of the team is going to look like next year, before you offered Evol anything? And once again do you trust Bloom to build a team for next year, and beyond?

[Old Red]

Why are you acting like I'm saying we should or have counted on getting starters from the farm? (The jury is still out on Houck and Whiitlock as starters from our farm.)

 

Maybe, we will under this new management, but personally, I would not count on it.

 

Is your position that we don't need any aces to be highly competitive? I don't want to put words in your mouth, so why not tell us your idea of what would be a good way to build a winning staff. Then, people won't have to keep guessing what your ideas are. (Not Bloom's, but your ideas and plan.)

 

Forget the starters and build a strong pen?

 

Do you think we can win without an ace? (It has happened several times in MLB history, buy is this your wish?)

 

Whitlock is not from the farm, but the Yankees farm.

[Old Red]

Why are you acting like I'm saying we should or have counted on getting starters from the farm? (The jury is still out on Houck and Whiitlock as starters from our farm.)

 

Maybe, we will under this new management, but personally, I would not count on it.

 

Is your position that we don't need any aces to be highly competitive? I don't want to put words in your mouth, so why not tell us your idea of what would be a good way to build a winning staff. Then, people won't have to keep guessing what your ideas are. (Not Bloom's, but your ideas and plan.)

 

Forget the starters and build a strong pen?

 

Do you think we can win without an ace? (It has happened several times in MLB history, buy is this your wish?)

 

An Ace is always better to have, but ours was 11-9 last year.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock is not from the farm, but the Yankees farm.

 

Yes, but he was a prospect when we obtained him.

 

No, he's not homegrown, but trading for prospects is one way to build up a farm that has trouble developing young SP'ers.

 

We are trying to figure out ways to build a strong pitching staff, going forward. We can't count on Rule 5 picks like Whitlock to be commonplace. We tried trading for pitching prospects like Seabold and Winckowski, but they both have a ways to go to prove they are ML caliber starters.

 

We can hope some of our most recent drafted or IFA pitching prospects do better than those in the past. It is possible history does not keep repeating itself forever, especially when changes have been made to your system of identifying who to draft/select and how to develop them, since the days of Ben and DD.

 

I believe you seem to not give much importance to the potential value prospects hold, but we have some starters in the minors that are doing much better than anything I've seen in over a decade. Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic, but I like our chances of developing 1-2 very good pitchers out of the current bunch:

 

AAA

2.75 Winckowski (.498 OPS Against) 19 K: 5 BB

2.93 Seabold (.563 OPSAgainst) 26K: 9 BB

These OPS Against numbers is like getting JBJ results from all the hitetrs youface!

 

AA

1.60 Bello (.460 and 28K:8 BB)

1.97 Murphy (.526 and 41K:14BB

2.97 Walter (.532 and an amazing 42:2!!!)

4.26 Groome (.648 and 28:10)

 

We also have some pen arms doing very well, like Frank German (trade) .449 OPSA, Politi .509 OPSA and Schreiber .643.

 

I'd prefer to rely on more than hopes, too. That's why I think we should try to find top pitchers via trade, and every now and then via free agency.

 

Wacha and Hill seem to be working, but Richards, Perez I and Perez II did not. Trying to find gems in the rough is a slippery slope, and relying on taht method, alone is scary as hell, to me.

 

How about you?

 

Tell us how you'd build a strong staff.

[notin]

Moon, no one knows what the 2023 will even remotely look like, so no I would not offer him $20M/1 for 2023. Do you know what the team will look like next year, and do you trust Bloom to put it together?

 

If the reason for not extending a player for one year is not knowing what the team will look like, why sign or extend anyone? Extending Eovaldi (or anyone) does partially answer that question…

[notin]

An Ace is always better to have, but ours was 11-9 last year.

 

And yet the team was still two games from a World Series. What does that say about the importance of a W-L record for an ace?

[moonslav59]

An Ace is always better to have, but ours was 11-9 last year.

 

We were 19-13 in Eovaldi's starts, last year. If every starter gave us that, we'd be 30 games over .500 or 96-66.

 

Maybe that's not ace material, but it's close.

 

When you look at ERod's history of leading our team to wins, it's shockingly great.

 

19-12 in 2021

0-0 in 2020

26-8 in 2019

19-4 in 2018

 

One could argue, he was our "ace" since 2018.

Edited May 15, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If the reason for not extending a player for one year is not knowing what the team will look like, why sign or extend anyone? Extending Eovaldi (or anyone) does partially answer that question…

 

One could apply the same reasoning to Red's clamoring to extend Bogey, too.

 

If we are going to lose Devers, JD, Eovaldi and others and never get any good pitching from the farm, forever, why waste money on Bogey?

[Old Red]

One could apply the same reasoning to Red's clamoring to extend Bogey, too.

 

If we are going to lose Devers, JD, Eovaldi and others and never get any good pitching from the farm, forever, why waste money on Bogey?

 

My first priority in a plan would be to lock up Bogey, and Raffy, and then go from there. If that doesn’t happen then I don’t really care at this point.