How much would you offer Eovaldi?

[notin]

I'm not desperate to justify re-signing Eovaldi (like I was in the winter of 2018, after he was the best pitcher that entire postseason, and because the other favorite to sign him was only Houston). And as much as some posters hated that signing, if they won't admit he has earned his now-below market $17 million AAV, can they at least be humble enough to appreciate his time in Boston?

 

I was wrong about Wacha, but he's already hurt again. I loved Verdugo's contributions in the '21 run, but still hate the Betts trade, because of what it revealed about Bloom and the organization going forward. I can't stand the Benintendi trade, either, but I'd really like to see Winckowski get a shot. The Renfroe deal didn't bother me, except that Bloom still has not added any righty-swinging outfielder -- even after he said he needed one.

 

But the Red Sox better be desperate to find, sign, trade for or call up a top of the rotation starting pitcher -- even if 2023 is a total rebuild. An ace is that important.

 

To paraphrase Bellhorn: this early in the season, are there any clearcut alternatives that are more reliable than Nate Eovaldi?

 

Betts clearly wanted out of Boston, or at least to try free agency. There is no GM in Sox history more willing to spend heavily and meet a player’s demands than Dave Dombrowski, an honor he holds in multiple organizations. And even he couldn’t keep Betts here.

 

If Dombrowski was unable to keep him in Boston, it’s very likely because nobody would have been able to…

[notin]

I'm not desperate to justify re-signing Eovaldi (like I was in the winter of 2018, after he was the best pitcher that entire postseason, and because the other favorite to sign him was only Houston). And as much as some posters hated that signing, if they won't admit he has earned his now-below market $17 million AAV, can they at least be humble enough to appreciate his time in Boston?

 

I was wrong about Wacha, but he's already hurt again. I loved Verdugo's contributions in the '21 run, but still hate the Betts trade, because of what it revealed about Bloom and the organization going forward. I can't stand the Benintendi trade, either, but I'd really like to see Winckowski get a shot. The Renfroe deal didn't bother me, except that Bloom still has not added any righty-swinging outfielder -- even after he said he needed one.

 

But the Red Sox better be desperate to find, sign, trade for or call up a top of the rotation starting pitcher -- even if 2023 is a total rebuild. An ace is that important.

 

To paraphrase Bellhorn: this early in the season, are there any clearcut alternatives that are more reliable than Nate Eovaldi?

 

And as probably the most vocal critic of the Eovaldi deal, my issue was never about talent. Eovaldi is in the 4th year of a contract and has performed with an ERA+ of 113 on this deal. But he’s also only thrown 286 IP in the 2.3 seasons before this, carries a lengthy injury history, and might be pricing himself into the 5 year $110 mill range.

 

Gausman is a good comp. Both were late bloomers. Eovaldi is a year older but also a better pitcher.

 

Would you be in for 5 years? Bear in mind this team still control Sale for 2 more years at $55mill total / $25mill AAV…

[notin]

It's hard to name possible trade candidates or what it will take to get one, but that might be the best way to add an ace, this winter.

 

Here are some BTV values:

 

Assuming we don't trade Whitlock (68.0) or Mayer (55.4)...

52.4 Casas

48.4 Devers

48.2 Houck

37.7 Yorke

18.7 Verdugo

18.3 Bogey

14.8 Duran

13.0 Bello

7.7 Eovaldi, 7.6 Kike & Jordan, 7.5 Pivetta, 6.8 Downs, 6.6 Gonzalez, 5.2 Dalbec, 5.0 Lugo, 4.6 Jimenez & Winckowski, 4.4 Taylot & Walter, 4.2 Bleis, 3.8 Mata, 3.5 Groome, 3.3 Hamilton, 3.0 Binelas & McDonough

 

Reds:

34.5 Mahle

31.9 Greene

30.2 Castillo

 

Marlins

81.9 Rogers

71.6 Alcantara

65.5 Lopez

38.1 Chisholm

35.6 Luzardo

25.3 Meyer (prospect)

13.1 Sanchez

5.2 Hernandez

 

Guardian

79.2 Bieber

30.1 McKenzie

19.2 Civale

 

A's

37.8 Montas

 

Orioles

6.3 Means

 

Pirates

28.1 Bednar

21.7 Contreras

 

Royals

28.7 Lynch

 

Bednar is a closer. Not saying it’s not a need, but I am saying he’s not an alternative to Eovaldi…

Edited May 15, 2022 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hard to name possible trade candidates or what it will take to get one, but that might be the best way to add an ace, this winter.

 

Here are some BTV values:

 

Assuming we don't trade Whitlock (68.0) or Mayer (55.4)...

52.4 Casas

48.4 Devers

48.2 Houck

37.7 Yorke

18.7 Verdugo

18.3 Bogey

14.8 Duran

13.0 Bello

7.7 Eovaldi, 7.6 Kike & Jordan, 7.5 Pivetta, 6.8 Downs, 6.6 Gonzalez, 5.2 Dalbec, 5.0 Lugo, 4.6 Jimenez & Winckowski, 4.4 Taylot & Walter, 4.2 Bleis, 3.8 Mata, 3.5 Groome, 3.3 Hamilton, 3.0 Binelas & McDonough

 

 

Reds:

34.5 Mahle

31.9 Greene

30.2 Castillo

 

Marlins

81.9 Rogers

71.6 Alcantara

65.5 Lopez

38.1 Chisholm

35.6 Luzardo

25.3 Meyer (prospect)

13.1 Sanchez

5.2 Hernandez

 

Guardian

79.2 Bieber

30.1 McKenzie

19.2 Civale

 

A's

37.8 Montas

 

Orioles

6.3 Means

 

Pirates

28.1 Bednar

21.7 Contreras

 

Royals

28.7 Lynch

 

I just traded Houck and Crawford to Cleveland for Civale and McKenzie. Total value: 52.20 for 52.40; Trade Accepted... (pending vaccination status of the two Guardians; there's no room on the roster for anyone who isn't willing to play in every rival city in the majors).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And as probably the most vocal critic of the Eovaldi deal, my issue was never about talent. Eovaldi is in the 4th year of a contract and has performed with an ERA+ of 113 on this deal. But he’s also only thrown 286 IP in the 2.3 seasons before this, carries a lengthy injury history, and might be pricing himself into the 5 year $110 mill range.

 

Gausman is a good comp. Both were late bloomers. Eovaldi is a year older but also a better pitcher.

 

Would you be in for 5 years? Bear in mind this team still control Sale for 2 more years at $55mill total / $25mill AAV…

 

I draw the line at four years, hopefully paying for three seasons of quality, and expecting one -- most likely the last -- to be lost to the brittle breakdown of age.

 

Maybe another GM gives him five, anticipating two lost years? Really, whichever stopper the Sox deem worthy of investment, the next three years are the most key in stabilizing the rotation... while awaiting the arrival of Brayan Bello, delivered in a Fenway flyover by Noah Song.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts clearly wanted out of Boston, or at least to try free agency. There is no GM in Sox history more willing to spend heavily and meet a player’s demands than Dave Dombrowski, an honor he holds in multiple organizations. And even he couldn’t keep Betts here.

 

If Dombrowski was unable to keep him in Boston, it’s very likely because nobody would have been able to…

 

Interesting reasoning, but I can't help disagreeing - are you surprised?

 

I think not going to the max for Betts was an ownership decision.

 

If you recall, Dombrowski failed to keep Scherzer in Detroit. Offered 6/$144, Max turned it down, DD wouldn't go higher. Or again, maybe his boss wouldn't go higher.

[Bellhorn04]

I draw the line at four years, hopefully paying for three seasons of quality, and expecting one -- most likely the last -- to be lost to the brittle breakdown of age.

 

Same, I'd go as high as 4 years @ $23-24 mill.

[Old Red]

Same, I'd go as high as 4 years @ $23-24 mill.

 

Quite a bit of money, and length for a pitcher with a career 62-66 WL record, and a career 4.15 ERA. Not to mention has only won in double figures(14, 11) twice.

[Bellhorn04]

Quite a bit of money, and length for a pitcher with a career 62-66 WL record, and a career 4.15 ERA. Not to mention has only won in double figures(14, 11) twice.

 

I hear what you're saying.

 

But guys who check all the boxes like Cole get $324 million.

 

Expensive times.

[Old Red]

I hear what you're saying.

 

But guys who check all the boxes like Cole get $324 million.

 

Expensive times.

 

To me Cole wasn’t worth it either.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi will get a Robbie Ray style deal, IMO, maybe a little more due to consistency. Ray for 5-$115 mil with an opt out after year 3. I could see Eovaldi getting a 5-$125 mil with no opt out

[Bellhorn04]

To me, Eovaldi is a guy who has made himself a much better pitcher. Look at those fantastic K/BB numbers the last 3 years. Plus from all accounts he works super hard keeping himself in top shape.

 

The durability of his twice-repaired arm is obviously the big risk factor.

[Bellhorn04]

To me Cole wasn’t worth it either.

 

Of course.

 

But how many are slam dunk great deals? Scherzer's with the Nats was, in retrospect. But he's an exception.

[jacksonianmarch]

Of course.

 

But how many are slam dunk great deals? Scherzer's with the Nats was, in retrospect. But he's an exception.

 

Cole had what would have been a 4WAR year in the sprint, a 5.4 WAR season last year and he's off to a good start again this year. To this point, Cole has been worth it. There are anomalous players you give that money and years to. A big, strong, relatively healthy guy like Cole is one of them. He has as good a chance as any to replicate what Scherzer is doing into his late 30s

[Old Red]

Of course.

 

But how many are slam dunk great deals? Scherzer's with the Nats was, in retrospect. But he's an exception.

 

But what does Bloom see with the Red Sox? His bargain basement starters like Hill, and Wacha are doing the job, and the high priced Sale is not. I don’t believe Evol will get a big extension with the Sox. The Yankees haven’t won anything with Cole, and won’t, because of him.

[jacksonianmarch]

But what does Bloom see with the Red Sox? His bargain basement starters like Hill, and Wacha are doing the job, and the high priced Sale is not. I don’t believe Evol will get a big extension with the Sox. The Yankees haven’t won anything with Cole, and won’t, because of him.

 

LOL, that is absolutely hilarious.

[Old Red]

Cole had what would have been a 4WAR year in the sprint, a 5.4 WAR season last year and he's off to a good start again this year. To this point, Cole has been worth it. There are anomalous players you give that money and years to. A big, strong, relatively healthy guy like Cole is one of them. He has as good a chance as any to replicate what Scherzer is doing into his late 30s

 

The Yankees haven’t won anything with Cole, and if they do it will be because of the big bats, and not , because of Cole.

[Old Red]

LOL, that is absolutely hilarious.

 

What was hilarious was Cole leaving Fenway early in the game last year in the playoffs. That’s what $300+M got you.

[Bellhorn04]

What was hilarious was Cole leaving Fenway early in the game last year in the playoffs. That’s what $300+M got you.

 

Well, if you're into the Johnny Clutch stuff, Eovaldi seems to fit the bill?

[moonslav59]

I just traded Houck and Crawford to Cleveland for Civale and McKenzie. Total value: 52.20 for 52.40; Trade Accepted... (pending vaccination status of the two Guardians; there's no room on the roster for anyone who isn't willing to play in every rival city in the majors).

 

They might prefer Yorke and Bello, if they are looking longer term.

 

I doubt Crawfoed moves the needle.

[Old Red]

Well, if you're into the Johnny Clutch stuff, Eovaldi seems to fit the bill?

 

Just to much of a big bill to me, and I think Bloom too. I like Evol, but the fact that he hasn’t been offered an extension yet like Bogey, and Raffy for what they were I think tells something.

[moonslav59]

To me Cole wasn’t worth it either.

 

Is there any ace-type pitcher who has been signed in the last 2-3 years, you thought was worth it at the time of the signing? (No hindsight thinking, please.)

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees would probably take Nate off our hands.

 

(Playing dirty now.)

[Old Red]

Is there any ace-type pitcher who has been signed in the last 2-3 years, you thought was worth it at the time of the signing? (No hindsight thinking, please.)

 

Give me a list. It’s not what I think is worth it, but what Bloom thinks, and he sees like what Hill, and Wacha are doing for little money, and short time, and I just can’t see him going big on a 33 yr old pitcher with a career 62-66 record.

[Old Red]

The Yankees would probably take Nate off our hands.

 

(Playing dirty now.)

 

Probably would.

[moonslav59]

To me, Eovaldi is a guy who has made himself a much better pitcher. Look at those fantastic K/BB numbers the last 3 years. Plus from all accounts he works super hard keeping himself in top shape.

 

The durability of his twice-repaired arm is obviously the big risk factor.

 

I think he is a much better pitcher, now, and those who use mostly career numbers miss an important part of valuing players. However, Eovaldi's age makes expecting him to remain who he is, today, a scary thought. We also have to think that maybe the 2021 season was an outlier.

 

While his ERA and ERA+ numbers have remained very consistent since 2020, we have t remember 2020 was a short season and 2019 was not very good.

 

ERA+ w BOS

133 (54 IP w the Sox) 97 w TBR

81 injured 2019 season

129

125

127

the last 3 years are awesome!

 

Now look at FIP

2.88 2018 BOS

5.90 2019

3.87 2020

2.79 2021 led league

4.55 so far in 2022

 

.This should worry anyone saying 3-5 years should be offered. If you throw out 2019, his 2.0 HR/9 rate is the worst of his career and nearly double any season's HR/9 since 2016. His career HR/9 before 2022 was 0.9, and that includes all those seasons he was not all that good. These could very well be signs of decline or impending decline, and who knows how steep that decline might be.

[Old Red]

I think he is a much better pitcher, now, and those who use mostly career numbers miss an important part of valuing players. However, Eovaldi's age makes expecting him to remain who he is, today, a scary thought. We also have to think that maybe the 2021 season was an outlier.

 

While his ERA and ERA+ numbers have remained very consistent since 2020, we have t remember 2020 was a short season and 2019 was not very good.

 

ERA+ w BOS

133 (54 IP w the Sox) 97 w TBR

81 injured 2019 season

129

125

127

the last 3 years are awesome!

 

Now look at FIP

2.88 2018 BOS

5.90 2019

3.87 2020

2.79 2021 led league

4.55 so far in 2022

 

.This should worry anyone saying 3-5 years should be offered. If you throw out 2019, his 2.0 HR/9 rate is the worst of his career and nearly double any season's HR/9 since 2016. His career HR/9 before 2022 was 0.9, and that includes all those seasons he was not all that good. These could very well be signs of decline or impending decline, and who knows how steep that decline might be.

 

I’m going on record as saying Evol will not resign with the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

I think he is a much better pitcher, now, and those who use mostly career numbers miss an important part of valuing players. However, Eovaldi's age makes expecting him to remain who he is, today, a scary thought. We also have to think that maybe the 2021 season was an outlier.

 

While his ERA and ERA+ numbers have remained very consistent since 2020, we have t remember 2020 was a short season and 2019 was not very good.

 

ERA+ w BOS

133 (54 IP w the Sox) 97 w TBR

81 injured 2019 season

129

125

127

the last 3 years are awesome!

 

Now look at FIP

2.88 2018 BOS

5.90 2019

3.87 2020

2.79 2021 led league

4.55 so far in 2022

 

.This should worry anyone saying 3-5 years should be offered. If you throw out 2019, his 2.0 HR/9 rate is the worst of his career and nearly double any season's HR/9 since 2016. His career HR/9 before 2022 was 0.9, and that includes all those seasons he was not all that good. These could very well be signs of decline or impending decline, and who knows how steep that decline might be.

 

I really have serious doubts about the importance of FIP.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

I’m going on record as saying Evol will not resign with the Red Sox.

 

Your odds of being right are better than 50%, no doubt.

[moonslav59]

Give me a list. It’s not what I think is worth it, but what Bloom thinks, and he sees like what Hill, and Wacha are doing for little money, and short time, and I just can’t see him going big on a 33 yr old pitcher with a career 62-66 record.

 

Of course it's up to Bloom, but it seems like you say every so-and-so is not worth it, except Bogey's hypothetical next contract.

 

If I provide a list, it's easy, in hindsight, to say we should have or could have offered more for so-and-so, but saying it at the time of the signing is what should be stated:

 

This past winter:

$43M x 3 Scherzer

$24M x 3 Stroman

$23M x 5 R Ray

$22M x 5 Gausman

$22M x 2 Rodon (opt out if 110+ IP)

$15M x 5 ERod (not an ace)

 

Where does Eovaldi fit in this list, to you, not Bloom?

 

The previous (COVID)winter:

$34M x 3 Bauer

 

The one before:

$36M x 9 Cole

$35M x 7 Strasburg

$28M x 3 Gibson

$24M x 5 Wheeler

$20M x 4 Ryu

$19M x 3 Keuchel

$17M x 5 Bumgarner

 

Looking at these lists makes me think we need to trade for an ace or get extremely lucky with our FA choice.