2022 Prospects

[mvp 78]

The ones i put in red were just players I thought were close for consideration.

 

I do not think Bonaci, Polito or Santos are protected.

 

Abreu is maybe the closest one not on your list, IMO.

 

I'm not saying you did say they would be protected. However, in the past we have come up with lists of about 8 guys that "absolutely" had to be protected like Jimenez. Bloom just has a metric that knows how far away guys can be that he can avoid putting them on the 40.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying you did say they would be protected. However, in the past we have come up with lists of about 8 guys that "absolutely" had to be protected like Jimenez. Bloom just has a metric that knows how far away guys can be that he can avoid putting them on the 40.

 

True. The always seem to protect less than we think they will, and often protect one we didn't figure they would protect.

 

Who is the last Sox player drafted in Rule 5?

 

Last year, we protected Downs, Bello, Crawford and Wink. Many felt we might protect Ward and or Jimenez.

[mvp 78]

Sox players drafted since 2010:

 

2016:

Justin Haley - 8th pick to the Angels

Aneury Tavarez - 12th pick to the Orioles

 

2014:

Jason Garcia - 4th pick to the Astros

 

2013:

Michael Almanzar - 9th pick to the Orioles

 

2012:

Josh Fields - 1st pick to the Astros

Ryan Pressly - 4th pick to the Twins

 

2011:

Cesar Cabral - 5th pick to the Royals

 

2010:

Cesar Cabral - 14th pick to the Rays

Daniel Turpen - 19th pick to the Yankees

[moonslav59]

Sox players drafted since 2010:

 

2016:

Justin Haley - 8th pick to the Angels

Aneury Tavarez - 12th pick to the Orioles

 

2014:

Jason Garcia - 4th pick to the Astros

 

2013:

Michael Almanzar - 9th pick to the Orioles

 

2012:

Josh Fields - 1st pick to the Astros

Ryan Pressly - 4th pick to the Twins

 

2011:

Cesar Cabral - 5th pick to the Royals

 

2010:

Cesar Cabral - 14th pick to the Rays

Daniel Turpen - 19th pick to the Yankees

 

Wow, 2012 was a killer.

 

Nothing much since then.

 

(Thanks for the info.)

[Behindenemylines]

Mayer is probably three seasons away, but Rafaela looks like the real deal. Saw him play SS this summer and he made some great plays, and they say he is even a better CF. That is where I see him for the Sox in the next couple years. Solid with the stick as well. Cases I think will be OK with the bat, and his D is great. York and Bleis are too far away yet. I hope Bello and Mata are the real deals.

[moonslav59]

Mayer is probably three seasons away, but Rafaela looks like the real deal. Saw him play SS this summer and he made some great plays, and they say he is even a better CF. That is where I see him for the Sox in the next couple years. Solid with the stick as well. Cases I think will be OK with the bat, and his D is great. York and Bleis are too far away yet. I hope Bello and Mata are the real deals.

 

I've heard Casas' D is about average. SP's says, potential solid-average defender

 

SP's has Mayer's arrival time as "late 2024."

 

Here are the recent grads and prospects that will certainly or likely see action in 2023:

 

Bello

Casas

Wong

Crawford

Kelly

German

Winckowski

Seabold

Ort

Downs & Duran

 

Mata

Walter

Politi

Murphy

R Hernandez

Maybe Rafaela, TWard, Granberg & Abreu

 

Certainly, a few of these guys do not look very promising, but if just one out of the 5 (Blue)or six can fill a lesser role well, and 3-4 out of the most promising ones (Red) can shine, we may not need much more help than from 4-5 additions from outside the organization or bringing Bogey, Wacha, Nate or Strahm back,

 

In short, we don't need even half of this list or 20 players to make a strong impression. We just need 4-5 to do well and maybe another 2-4 to do okay.

 

When is the last time we saw a list of 20? Okay, okay, take out Duran, Downs, Seabold, and a couple more, but when have we had a list of 12-14 like this?

Edited October 29, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Some after deadline Sox farm rankings and quotes:

 

13th ESPN

The Red Sox had a confusing trade deadline, holding J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, trading Christian Vazquez and Jake Diekman, and adding Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. The Hosmer deal included flipping longtime prospect LHP Jay Groome to San Diego for 2B Max Ferguson and CF Corey Rosier while Vazquez netted Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu; all four added prospects are more depth pieces than impact types. The draft class was solid, led by prep position players SS Mikey Romero, RF Roman Anthony, C Brooks Brannon and SS Cutter Coffey. Three former prep position player top picks -- SS Marcelo Mayer, 2B Nick Yorke and 1B Triston Casas -- still pace the system.

 

11th Fan Nation

Top 100 Prospects: Marcelo Mayer, SS (No. 8); Triston Casas (No. 26), Brayan Bello (No. 37)

 

11th MLB.com

 

2022 preseason rank: 14

2021 midseason rank: 12

2021 preseason rank: 24

2020 midseason rank: 25

Top 100 Prospects: Marcelo Mayer, SS (No. 8); Triston Casas (No. 26), Brayan Bello (No. 37)

 

The Red Sox just missed making the top 10 for the first time since they were No. 7 in mid-2016. The strength of the system is infielders, including first-round picks Mayer, Casas, Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero. Two of Boston's most electric prospects are international outfielders Ceddanne Rafaela and Miguel Bleis.

 

Red Sox Top 30 Prospects 2022 midseason rerank

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- While the Red Sox have had an underperforming season at the Major League level, things are looking bright on the farm. Boston’s farm system -- which was re-ranked by MLB Pipeline this week -- includes three of MLB’s top 37 prospects. • Red Sox top prospects stats |

 

19th Bleacher Report

Top 10 Prospects

 

1. SS Marcelo Mayer (Tier 1)

2. 1B Triston Casas (Tier 1)

3. RHP Brayan Bello (Tier 1)

4. 2B Nick Yorke (Tier 1)

5. RHP Bryan Mata (Tier 2)

6. IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela (Tier 2)

7. 1B Niko Kavadas (Tier 3)

8. LHP Chris Murphy (Tier 3)

9. 1B/3B Blaze Jordan (Tier 3)

10. OF Roman Anthony (Tier 3)

 

Farm System Snapshot

 

Curacao native Ceddanne Rafaela is flying up prospect rankings thanks to a .312/.354/.583 line that includes 46 extra-base hits and 19 steals in 74 games between High-A and Double-A. The 21-year-old will need to improve on his 4.5 percent walk rate to take the next step in his development.

 

The Red Sox reached for high school shortstops Mikey Romero and Cutter Coffey with their first two picks before taking power-hitting prep outfielder Roman Anthony with the No. 79 overall pick as their most promising 2022 selection.

[mvp 78]

Bleacher Report is the worst.

 

The Mikey Romero reach: 874 OPS between the complex league and low A

 

If he's a guy you like and it enables you to sign Roman Anthony AND Brooks Brannon, seems like a smart pick when the player actually performs too.

[mvp 78]

AFL #'s

 

Yorke 926 OPS, 7 2b, 12 BB

Scott 1064 OPS, 4 HR

Kavadas 773 OPS, 11 BB

Abreu 525 OPS

Webb 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Stephen Scott with his 5th HR of the AFL tonight. Red Sox with that many since 2005 (all had 5):

Jeter Downs, 2021

Travis Shaw, 2013

Josh Reddick, 2008

 

I was going to play it down but that's not a bad list to be on. AFL is kind of already skimming off the chaff, but still.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Jacob Webb earned his third save of the Arizona Fall League last night with a hitless ninth inning in the 7-6 Scottsdale Scorpions win. The 23-year-old righty has a 2.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts over nine innings. Full scouting report

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Triston Casas has missed the last two weeks of the Dominican Winter League season, but an exam in Boston suggested no reason for concern, and the team expects him to resume playing for Licey

 

Figured I'd just put this here with the other winter league updates.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Another AFL injury note: RHP Thaddeus Ward is expected to return for a start later this week/weekend.

 

Ward left his second AFL start, on 10/10, with a strained left oblique. He'll get one or maybe two more starts (just 5 more games for Scottsdale, plus maybe playoffs).

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox prospects Nick Yorke, Stephen Scott (5 homers) named All-Stars in AFL

[moonslav59]

From SP:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/fallwinter-league-roundup-kavadas-yorke.html

 

Arizona Fall League

 

Boston's contingent in the AFL put their best foot forward in the penultimate week of the season. Niko Kavadas hit his first two home runs while going 3 for 10 with a double, walk, and five strikeouts. Nick Yorke returned to action after missing a few games with wrist discomfort. He went 6 for 15 with a home run, a double, a steal, and three RBI. Stephen Scott went 1 for 7 but did hit another home run and walked twice while driving in three runs. Wilyer Abreu saw limited action, going 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout.

 

Both Yorke and Scott appeared in the Fall Stars Game on Sunday for the American League squad. Scott got the start at catcher, going 1 for 2 with a walk and a run scored. Yorke came in off the bench and went 0 for 2.

 

The big story of the week on the mound was the return of Thad Ward. Ward struck out two over two hitless innings in his first game since October 10 due to an oblique injury. In two appearances, Ryan Zeferjahn struck out seven over 3 1/3 innings. He allowed one run and walked three. Both Aaron Perry and Jacob Webb threw a scoreless inning with Webb earning his third save.

 

Dominican Professional Baseball League

 

The slate was a bit light this week with Triston Casas still nursing a knee sprain and Chase Shugart being released by las Estrellas to make room for Luis Campusano. Franklin German got the start on Friday, tossing two scoreless innings. He allowed three hits and struck out two. Victor Santos also served as an opener this week, starting the game with a shutout inning on Saturday. On Wednesday he struck out three but also walked two in a traditional relief appearance. Enmanuel Valdez got two at-bats this week as a pinch hitter, going 0 for 2.

 

Venezuelan Professional Baseball League

 

Darwinzon Hernández made his debut this week, striking out four over two shutout innings while walking one. Pedro Castellanos was the only position player to see game action, going 5 for 14 with 3 RBI. Oddanier Mosqueda pitched a scoreless inning in his first appearance but then gave up three runs on three hits without recording an out on Friday.

 

Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League (Puerto Rico)

 

The season began on Friday, with seven Red Sox prospects set to appear in the league. Ceddanne Rafaela will join Caguas on Wednesday. He has been working out with Team Netherlands in preparation for the World Baseball Classic.

 

Matthew Lugo was hit by pitches in both of his plate appearances on Friday but returned to the lineup on Sunday while going 0 for 3. Christian Koss is 2 for 8 with three strikeouts over his first two games, while Jeter Downs has yet to appear in a game. Juan Montero came in as a defensive replacement but did not record an at-bat, while Nate Tellier allowed two runs (one earned) in his inning of relief.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-all-arizona-fall-league-team?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

 

Stephen Scott made the All AFL Team.

 

C: Stephen Scott, Scottsdale (unranked among BOS Top 30)

The 2019 10th-rounder out of Vanderbilt made the full-time move back to catcher this season, so you might have expected there to be a heavier emphasis on his defense with the Scorpions. Instead, he showed he can swing it a bit too with a .298/.394/.614 line over 15 games. Five of his seven extra-base hits left the yard, putting him in a five-way tie for third on the AFL HR leaderboard. That’s a solid showing for a player who went deep 10 times in 96 games at High-A and Double-A during the regular season.

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-all-arizona-fall-league-team?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

 

Stephen Scott made the All AFL Team.

 

C: Stephen Scott, Scottsdale (unranked among BOS Top 30)

The 2019 10th-rounder out of Vanderbilt made the full-time move back to catcher this season, so you might have expected there to be a heavier emphasis on his defense with the Scorpions. Instead, he showed he can swing it a bit too with a .298/.394/.614 line over 15 games. Five of his seven extra-base hits left the yard, putting him in a five-way tie for third on the AFL HR leaderboard. That’s a solid showing for a player who went deep 10 times in 96 games at High-A and Double-A during the regular season.

 

Are you projecting Rule 5 protection for SS?

[mvp 78]

Are you projecting Rule 5 protection for SS?

 

He probably won't be. I think we've protected more players on our lists in the previous years than Bloom has.

[moonslav59]

He probably won't be. I think we've protected more players on our lists in the previous years than Bloom has.

 

Very true. I won't be surprised, if Abreu is not protected, but I won't be surprised, if he's selected on the draft, wither.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com discussed why maybe Hamilton was protected, as some team might have taken him due to the new baserunning-improvement rules.

 

They think Wikelman and Bonaci might be too far away, but with so many tanking teams, maybe they get taken.

 

They discussed Ward and Politi as most likely to be taken. Wallace is too inconsistent, in their opinion.

 

They had Abreu as 50-50.

 

Basically, they said they would n ot have been surprised with Hamilton & Abreu being protected, if Ward had been, too.

 

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/podcast-ep-265-rule-5-protection.html

[moonslav59]

Highest Ranked Sox Prospects Left Unprotected on Rule 5:

 

9. Paulino

13. Wikelman

18. T Ward

19. Bonaci

37. R Fernandez

38. C Koss

39. Jimenez

43. Angel Bastardo

49. Politi

50. Wallace

 

Updated rankings come out next week.

 

[moonslav59]

(Bello Graduated)

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Rafaela

5. Romero

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Paulino

9. Walter

10. Perales

11. Anthony

12. Wikelman

13. Wong

14. Valdez

15. Jordan

16. Lugo

17. Murphy

18. Bonaci

19. Hickey

20. Kavadas

21. T Ward

22. Abreu

23. Rodriguez-Cruz

24. Kelly

25. German

26. Coffey

27. Brannon

28. Drohan

29. Uberstine

30. Hamilton

 

Dropped from top 30: Seabold, Downs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Highest Ranked Sox Prospects Left Unprotected on Rule 5:

 

9. Paulino

13. Wikelman

18. T Ward

19. Bonaci

37. R Fernandez

38. C Koss

39. Jimenez

43. Angel Bastardo

49. Politi

50. Wallace

 

Updated rankings come out next week.

 

 

Paulino and Bonaci are far away. Wikelman is far away, but it's risky to leave him unprotected. I believe Ward was left unprotected due to health concerns, but I would have protected him for sure. I believe Fernandez ended the season with an injury, but he's close to providing an MLB team with bullpen help. I don't think Koss, Jimenez or Bastardo would be selected. Politi or Wallace could be selected, but there are probably better options available on other rosters.

[moonslav59]

Paulino and Bonaci are far away. Wikelman is far away, but it's risky to leave him unprotected. I believe Ward was left unprotected due to health concerns, but I would have protected him for sure. I believe Fernandez ended the season with an injury, but he's close to providing an MLB team with bullpen help. I don't think Koss, Jimenez or Bastardo would be selected. Politi or Wallace could be selected, but there are probably better options available on other rosters.

 

Agreed. I hope T Ward is not selected. Maybe there are better options elsewhere. Wikelman might be the best of the 4 that may be selected, but he probably would not pitch for the big club that selects him.

[moonslav59]

Other than carry-overs from this year's Rule 5 list, here are some of the newbies that will be eligible in 2023's Rule 5 Draft:

 

Jacinto Arredondo

Rivaldo Avila

Bradley Blalock

Maceo Campbell

Allan Castro

Juan Chacon

Casey Cobb

Nathanael Cruz

Kelvin Diaz

Jordan DiValerio

Shane Drohan

Juan Daniel Encarnacion

Jose Garcia

Jhon Garcia

Jhostynxon Garcia

Alexis Hernandez

Graham Hoffman

Lyonell James

Robert Kwiatkowski

Chih-Jung Liu

Blake Loubier

Matthew Lugo

Yorberto Mejicano

Jose Mendez

Henry Núñez

Luis Perales

Railin Perez

Ronald Rosario

Cesar Ruiz

Johnfrank Salazar

Reidis Sena

Karson Simas

Cesar Soto

Joey Stock

Nate Tellier

Brian Van Belle

Diego Viloria

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

[mvp 78]

Those 3 seem automatic adds. Of the others listed, Johnfrank Salazar is the most likely to have a chance to be added depending on what he does this season IMO.

[moonslav59]

Those 3 seem automatic adds. Of the others listed, Johnfrank Salazar is the most likely to have a chance to be added depending on what he does this season IMO.

 

Might Perales be viewed as "too far away" to be selected next winter?

 

He might be too damn good to not protect, no matter what the ETA is.

[mvp 78]

Might Perales be viewed as "too far away" to be selected next winter?

 

He might be too damn good to not protect, no matter what the ETA is.

 

Wikelman will be repeating Greenville to start this season. I think Perales is going to be ready to for POR to start 2024. No chance is he left unprotected.

[moonslav59]

Wikelman will be repeating Greenville to start this season. I think Perales is going to be ready to for POR to start 2024. No chance is he left unprotected.

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

Bonaci had the most BBs (89) in all of the minor leaguers who did not have more K's than BBs.

 

Bonaci had 89 BBs and 89 Ks.

 

Adael Amador (COL) had 87 BBs and 67 Ks

Juan Brito (COL) had 78-71.

 

The Sox have 3 of the minor league top BB leaders (2 had some in other systems):

 

2. Abreu 114 (also 31 SB/ 3 CS)

5. Kavadas 102 (also 52 XBHs in 393 ABs)

10. Ferguson 96 (also 65 SB/ 5 CS)

 

Speaking of SBs, we protected David Hamilton, who had 70 SBs and just 8 CS.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by moonslav59